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Winter 2017-18 Colder Air Mass Movement and Distribution Projections ..

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#1
richard mann

Posted 01 January 2018 - 10:50 AM

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(This thread follows in line with one similar covering the same idea where looking at this past Fall. @)
 
 
.. If looked at carefully at all, it can be seen that over the past two weeks or sosince the 19th or so of Decembermain cold air massthat looked at more fully across the board, fuller main Northern Hemispheric scope, has been retracting northward, by degrees daily. 
 
This, or more essentially, more "recoiling" back north, with and in fact having followed a 14 or so day period previous to Dec. 19th where and when main cold had been moving both daily and progressively more steadfastly southwardmore out and down from its main higher latitude source regions and areas.
 
.. At the same time, but with looking at broader main cold air more longitudinally from the 19th of Dec. to this point more, all colder air mass had been being caused to move relatively slowly east from the 17th or so of Dec. through until the 27th or so of Dec., when it began to move—as a whole—more assertively east. 
 
https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GOES
 
.. At this point more, and where looking more forward, main cold looked at more longitudinally, should begin to slow its pace eastward, with continuing to do so daily and progressively more, through the 7th of Jan. or so, and before beginning to step up in pace east again from the 8th through to the 16th or so.
 
.. This, while where looked at more latitudinally, all cold's[that] looked at more broadly / hemispherically, and, having been allowed to consolidate more substantially north over the past two weeks or sobeing caused to move and spread, progressively, daily more south; .. from this point through until the 15th or so of January.

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#2
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:40 PM

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If colder air has been retracting nothward, what about the record cold in the Northeast US?

#3
richard mann

Posted 01 January 2018 - 04:30 PM

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If colder air has been retracting northward, what about the record cold in the Northeast US?

 
Right. 
 
.. In fact one element of my having pointed to the idea of looking more "carefully" where having begun to say what I have above.
 
Put more basically, as cold builds over and during the colder months of the year, it can only "retract" so far north. 
 
.. But if you do "look carefully", at both the main three different, upper air, more "hemispheric" charts for the past two weeks, ... 
 
(.. One source for these chartsif going back only 3 days, both very colorful and easy to read, being those generated by "Unisys Wx". -  850mb, 500mb, 300mb.  Another, those generated at and by the "University of Wyoming", where looking back further. - http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/uamap.shtml.)
 
.. and or then, the main more "Global" IR images generated by "NOAA", accessible through the link that I've provided, inserted above, ...
 
.. you'll see, fairly plainly, that with a substantial portion of all, of the main cold stores right now through the higher latitudes "north", being situated north of the U. S. Northeast, that that cold looked at more in particularly having previously moved and spread more southward, will have only been able to "retract" so far, "north". 
 
... And so, in fact, the "retraction" of cold [north] that I've referred to, had even worked to have deepened the cold there. ....
 
 
If perhaps unclear, if you'll dial in the main "NOAA" global IR images that I've routed to above within my original post / set of projections, back to, Dec. 4th and then proceed forward, you'll see, plainly, that coldacross the boardhad in fact [first] worked to move and spread, progressively, daily more southward, from that point through to the Dec. 19th. This before, having worked to "retract" or "recoil" more "back" more northward, from that part, more to this. ....


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#4
Andie

Posted 08 January 2018 - 05:34 PM

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Thousands of flying foxes fall from sky after being ‘boiled alive’ in sweltering Australia heatwave

104* F. 

 

In Texas that would be stressing but we wouldn't see death tolls like this, unless sustained without water.

These creatures dies from the sheer heat.

 

https://www.thesun.c...ralia-heatwave/


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#5
richard mann

Posted 09 January 2018 - 12:01 AM

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.. What, has this above, to do with this thread.?

 

(If I may.)

 

To anyone else checking in here. ...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/


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#6
richard mann

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:10 PM

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At this pointand following its having been, from the 1st of Jan. more through to this point, moving and spreading steadily daily more southwardcold air mass looked at at a whole, i. e. across the board from east to west, fuller Northern hemispheric scopewill be in basic regression mode, caused to retract steadily each day more northward, through until the 29th or so of January. 

 

This, while where looked at more longitudinally during this same general period, all main cold air should be caused to move relatively slowly where considering its general pace and progress more eastwardhaving begun to do so over the past day or two. This with its continuing to maintain that slower pace for the most part, through the 27th or so of Jan., before shifting to a progressively more stepped up and assertive pace east from that point through to the 31st.



No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#7
Andie

Posted 22 January 2018 - 04:39 PM

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My family's native land is having a bumper winter !
6' of snow in 6 days.

Davos is not alone in getting clobbered with snow in Switzerland this winter. Just two weeks ago, 13,000 tourists were stranded at the foot of the Matterhorn by heavy snow and rain. But the timing of the snowfall — on the eve of the World Economic Forum’s annual conference — has had an outsize impact.
https://www.nytimes....davos-snow.html

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#8
richard mann

Posted 24 January 2018 - 01:31 AM

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-

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=304779


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#9
richard mann

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:30 AM

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At this pointand with having begun to do so on the 30th of Januarymain cold air mass looked at more hemisphericallyfuller Northern hemispheric scopeis in basic expansion mode, or moving and spreading daily, steadily and progressively southward, out and down from its main higher latitude source regions and areas. This with its likely continuing to do so through to the 11th of February. 

 

This more latitudinal distribution, while during this same general period where looked at more longitudinally, main and broader cold is caused to move progressively more slowly east through the first week of February, before picking up in pace east gradually again through to February 15th or so.


 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#10
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:20 AM

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-

 

At this pointand with having begun to do so on the 30th of Januarymain cold air mass looked at more hemisphericallyfuller Northern hemispheric scopeis in basic expansion mode, or moving and spreading daily, steadily and progressively southward, out and down from its main higher latitude source regions and areas. This with its likely continuing to do so through to the 11th of February. 

 

This more latitudinal distribution, while during this same general period where looked at more longitudinally, main and broader cold is caused to move progressively more slowly east through the first week of February, before picking up in pace east gradually again through to February 15th or so.


 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.

 

Hopefully this leads to a stormier pattern for California that brings some good rain and mountain snow statewide.



#11
richard mann

Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:16 AM

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Hopefully this leads to a stormier pattern for California that brings some good rain and mountain snow statewide.

 
 
hey, Dan. 
 
.. Certainly with being from California myself, and with our [here] having been getting far less both rain - at lower elevations, and snow - in the mountains this year, than normal, ... 
 
Precip.  http://water.weather.gov/precip/
 
Snow Depth.   2018, 2017. .. 2016, 1514, 13, 12, 1110, 0908, 07, 06, 05, 04. ..
[For Feb. 6th, 06z] 
 
... we could use some more of both. 
 
{.. My own view, that we're seeing a "reverse echo" of sorts, as it were, where looking at precipitation more in general, and where considering the general amount of precip. before, through and now more after the draught. ("mirror, image".? ) }
 
More to your thought more general here above, ... 
 
.. Unfortunately, and even with the main leaning of over-all cold (more hemispheric scope.) in fact being more "expansive" ("South", and progressively more so, daily.) at this point (As I had projected above.), …
 
… the both longitude - or more meridional line, that that cold has been taking south, looked at together along with also the pace (variable.) east, that cold has been moving, has resulted more in the ridging that we're seeing currently.
 
 Adjust, and back-track through the daily images at the site-page accessible here just below to the 30th of Jan. or so, move daily forward, and you'll see more just how this ridging has developed relative to what I'd suggested / projected would happen (/occur.) most recently above.
 
https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GOES

More essentially, here. Plenty of cold having moved and spread daily south both east and west of the ridge in place at this point. This idea looked at along together with also, that that cold has moved / been moving relatively slowly east. 


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#12
Andie

Posted 09 February 2018 - 07:38 AM

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Tasmania received a summer snowstorm this month, while in Morocco areas were hit with snow for the first time.
It's been a bumper winter for Europe and parts of the globe are breaking long held records.

Global temps
https://www.iceageno...ion/#more-24565

Morocco
https://www.medias24...oyen-Atlas.html

Tasmania
http://www.news.com....e2f6910db5d6d9d

Spain
https://elpais.com/e...298_655695.html

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#13
richard mann

Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:58 AM

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-
 http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=312302


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#14
richard mann

Posted 23 February 2018 - 04:31 PM

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_
 
Certainly somewhat counter-intuitive (i. e. not having appeared to have been what's been occurring.) with the colder conditions scenario that's been playing out over much of California over the past four or five days @ , although, …
 
.. At this point, main and broader cold air massthat looked at more across the board, east to west, broader Northern hemispheric scopeis in basic recession mode. Or retracting daily more northward. And has been since Feb. 11th. Set to continue to recess still more northward through to the 25th.
 
This while where looked at more longitudinally, main colder air mass looked at more broadly, continues to slow its pace and general progress more eastward, having begun to do so on the 15th of February, and with being set to begin to move more assertively east near to Feb. 26th. 
 
 
Of note here where looking a the cold over California this past week, the significant tough of cold air having developed here in the West and moved down the greater Coast, has basically been the result of cold's having, if where having been retracting northward where looked at more as a whole (i. e. more over-all.), also at the same time, having been slowing its pace more longitudinally east. Making for a more "meridional" steering of that cold more southward.


No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#15
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 23 February 2018 - 05:10 PM

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_
 
Certainly somewhat counter-intuitive (i. e. not having appeared to have been what's been occurring.) with the colder conditions scenario that's been playing out over much of California over the past four or five days @ , although, …
 
.. At this point, main and broader cold air massthat looked at more across the board, east to west, broader Northern hemispheric scopeis in basic recession mode. Or retracting daily more northward. And has been since Feb. 11th. Set to continue to recess still more northward through to the 25th.
 
This while where looked at more longitudinally, main colder air mass looked at more broadly, continues to slow its pace and general progress more eastward, having begun to do so on the 15th of February, and with being set to begin to move more assertively east near to Feb. 26th. 
 
  Of note here where looking a the cold over California this past week, the significant tough of cold air having developed here in the West and moved down the greater Coast, has basically been the result of cold's having, if where having been retracting northward where looked at more as a whole (i. e. more over-all.), also at the same time, having been slowing its pace more longitudinally east. Making for a more "meridional" steering of that cold more southward.No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


So when will the precipitation move longitudinally eastward and latitudinally southward to give Southern California some significant rain? Will it happen before the end of June?



#16
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 23 February 2018 - 09:59 PM

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So when will the precipitation move longitudinally eastward and latitudinally southward to give Southern California some significant rain? Will it happen before the end of June?

 

It had better happen before the end of June, or Socal is going to beat 2006-07 by a wide margin for its driest season on record.



#17
richard mann

Posted 03 March 2018 - 06:40 PM

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So when will the precipitation move longitudinally eastward and latitudinally southward to give Southern California some significant rain? Will it happen before the end of June?

 

.. If you check the daily fuller global IR images at the site-page accessible through the link following here just below, you'll see that since the 24th, when you'd ask this question, ...

 

https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GOES

 

.. a significant mass of more northward sitting and tracking cold air, if with having been moving at a fair clip east where and with having been cresting north of a ridge having been set up at the time, once over and by that ridge, had turned sharply down the Coast with cold's both at that point, still slower movement east more over-all, together with also at the same time having begun to move and spread daily more south.


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#18
richard mann

Posted 03 March 2018 - 06:54 PM

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.. With its having begun to do so back on the 25th of February, at this point main cold air mass looked at more across the boardfrom east to west, fuller Northern hemispheric scopeis continuing to move and spread daily more southward. This with its being set to continue to do so through the 10th of March. 

 

.. At the same time and with its having over the past few days been moving fairly assertively east - if at the same time having been steered south, main and broader cold air should be caused to start moving more slowly, more longitudinally east over and during the next four or five days.  

 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#19
richard mann

Posted 14 March 2018 - 10:09 PM

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.. With its having begun to do so back on the 11th of March, at this point main cold air mass looked at more across the board from east to west fuller Northern hemispheric scope, is now about four days into a general regression back more northward. This where considering a more or less cyclical, more inner-seasonal and very near to bi-monthly more latitudinal distributioni. e. fist general expansion, or movement and spread daily more southward, occurring over approximately two weeks, followed by a nearly equal timeframe period of regress, or "retraction" or even "contraction" of broader scope main cold having spread more southward, back, daily more northward. This current "retreat" of cold looked at more hemispherically, should continue through March 24th or so. 

 

.. During this same general timeframe, where looked at more longitudinally, main cold air mass looked at more hemispheric scope and having begun to do so back on the 9th or so of March, should be caused to continue to move at a generally more stepped up pace east for the next few days before beginning to slow its pace and progress more eastward on the 17th.  

 

No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post.  Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture  certainly open to discussion.


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#20
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 March 2018 - 09:03 AM

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(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherfor...dness/?p=331582



#21
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 20 March 2018 - 07:34 PM

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It's officially time to start up

Spring 2018 Colder Air Mass Movement and Distribution Projections ..