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1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

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#1
clintbeed1993

Posted 06 January 2018 - 09:29 PM

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GFS has remained fairly consistent on a major winter storm affecting parts of the Northern and Central Great Plains.  It's looking like a Minnesota special at the moment but even Nebraska and parts of Iowa get in on the action.  Could this be the first official winter storm of the season?  Let's see what the EURO does over the next couple days.

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#2
Money

Posted 06 January 2018 - 09:48 PM

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Gfs ensembles look pretty far south

#3
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 09:56 PM

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Can you pin this? It'll be more obvious up there.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#4
gabel23

Posted 06 January 2018 - 09:57 PM

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Gfs ensembles look pretty far south


I only seen one map but does the ukie have the snow in the black hills? That’s the way it looks to me. If I had a gun to my head and had to decide which model to trust; I would probably go with the euro IMO. Gonna be a fun next couple of days; hopefully someone scores a big one from this!

#5
james1976

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:06 PM

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That was an interesting GFS run. Gimme 2 in a row though.

#6
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:10 PM

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Euro is making landfall about 100-200 miles South compared to the last run. EVER SO SLIGHTLY weaker but it shouldn't make a difference.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#7
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:18 PM

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EVER SO SLIGHTLY weaker but it shouldn't make a difference.


I'm wrong. It made a huge difference. ****.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#8
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:22 PM

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Okay it's looking good @108... Nice defo band on top of us. This might happen.

I was a bit scared seeing it almost take a s**t in Colorado, but it revs back up well in KS.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#9
Money

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:24 PM

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Hr 120 looks interesting with that secondary low

#10
snowstorm83

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:27 PM

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Verbatim it looks like Omaha/Lincoln get shafted but it's a big step in the right direction.


Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.7"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#11
Money

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:28 PM

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997 L in W OH with the secondary low at hr 144

#12
hlcater

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:29 PM

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Hr 120 looks interesting with that secondary low

Many runs of many models have been toying with that idea to varying degrees. But secondary lows are always finicky.


2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn


#13
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:30 PM

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Ok this is odd but the precipitation maps clearly have heavy snow over us and we only manage a few inches still, that just doesn't seem right lol. But it was a huge surge south though which was a trend towards the GFS.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

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#14
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:31 PM

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Ok this is odd but the precipitation maps clearly have heavy snow over us and we only manage a few inches still, that just doesn't seem right lol. But it was a huge surge south though which was a trend towards the GFS.

That's what I've been saying. First the GFS did this and now Euro is too. Ground temps won't be an issue so idk what's going on.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#15
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:33 PM

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It's also showing that second wave Friday. Muy bueno.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#16
Money

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:36 PM

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Anyone have the snow maps?

#17
hlcater

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:43 PM

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That's what I've been saying. First the GFS did this and now Euro is too. Ground temps won't be an issue so idk what's going on.

This sounds stupid but what about air temps? 


2019-20 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 28.6"

(Oct. 29: 2.5") (Oct. 31: 4.7") (Nov 11. 4.1") (Dec. 9: 0.3") (Dec. 11: 1.3") (Jan. 3: 1.0") (Jan. 11: 2.1") (Jan. 17: 4.7") (Jan. 23: 3.1") (Jan 24. 3.6") (Jan. 28: 0.7") (Feb. 13: 1.5")

 

 

Formerly NWLinn


#18
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:44 PM

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This sounds stupid but what about air temps?


The changeover to snow looks like it'll happen right at 32. Maybe 33 but temps will be dropping quickly. Roads will be a mess regardless. Whether it be snow, flash freezing of previously fallen rain, or a nasty mix of the two.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#19
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:45 PM

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Anyone have the snow maps?


I'd post one of them but I don't have my computer and my phone is screwy with attachments.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#20
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:46 PM

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Hell looking at temperatures and an extra .30-.35 of QPF on the backside with temperatures in the teens, that would be close to 6 inches here, not sure what the accumulation map is smoking.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#21
Money

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:49 PM

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I'd post one of them but I don't have my computer and my phone is screwy with attachments.


How’s it look for the secondary system?

#22
snowstorm83

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:49 PM

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Accumulation map 

 

ecmwf_tsnow_mc_22.png


Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.7"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#23
Money

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:53 PM

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Gfs has some good looking snow maps for the secondary system

http://forums.accuwe...=post&id=341713

#24
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:53 PM

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How’s it look for the secondary system?


I must say, pretty light if you don't live in NE or SD. Maybe an incher for those involved East of here.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#25
gabel23

Posted 06 January 2018 - 10:55 PM

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Accumulation map ecmwf_tsnow_mc_22.png


Can’t see the map!

#26
snowstorm83

Posted 06 January 2018 - 11:00 PM

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Can’t see the map!

 

Dang it lol. Maybe you need a wxbell account to actually see it? Idk how to get a link for it without it being directly from wxbell. Shelby, NE gets 7" with 10:1 ratios on the map.


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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.7"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#27
TOL_Weather

Posted 06 January 2018 - 11:02 PM

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Dang it lol. Maybe you need a wxbell account to actually see it? Idk how to get a link for it without it being directly from wxbell.


I just save the image and attach it here.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#28
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 02:12 AM

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Holy s**t!

 

snku_acc.us_c.png


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#29
clintbeed1993

Posted 07 January 2018 - 03:07 AM

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Holy s**t!

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

Lol, nice weenie band near Omaha.  Too bad it's the 6z



#30
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 03:29 AM

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It’s digging farther south each run

6z digs it down into Texas panhandle

Only one ensemble takes it into WI now

#31
Grizzcoat

Posted 07 January 2018 - 04:43 AM

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Do not wanna be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Though it looks nice. Still a LONG ways to go. Not harping, just stating history.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#32
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 January 2018 - 04:44 AM

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The GFS ensembles also show less precip than the operational. Something to keep an eye on. The op might be overjuiced.

#33
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:04 AM

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It’s digging farther south each run

6z digs it down into Texas panhandle

Only one ensemble takes it into WI now


Though it looks like the Euro has to best snow nw of msp...

#34
Andrew NE

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:18 AM

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Holy s**t!

snku_acc.us_c.png


We have a long ways to go, if it was Tuesday/Wednesday it would be exciting. Don't jinx it now.
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#35
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:26 AM

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The GFS ensembles also show less precip than the operational. Something to keep an eye on. The op might be overjuiced.


Eh not that much. Maybe up by you

http://mp1.met.psu.e...NE_6z/f126.html

#36
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:35 AM

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Less phasing would help to the southeast but also probably means less moisture...

#37
TOL_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:37 AM

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Yeah we've been burned an excessive amount of times this far out. There's still plenty of time for Norfolk to get slammed and not us. The low hasn't even made landfall yet. Let's see 12z data.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#38
TOL_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:04 AM

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NAM ends the run with the SLP down by the OK Panhandle.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#39
Andrew NE

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:10 AM

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NAM ends the run with the SLP down by the OK Panhandle.


That was intriguing to see. Figured it would be much farther north
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#40
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:18 AM

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Looks pretty similar to 6z gfs placement

#41
Madtown

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:20 AM

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Weaker and southeast...by tomorrow it will be an open wave on its way to a frontal passage. Been the theme for this year and last. Hope it comes together and smokes someone, but hard to get excited.

#42
TOL_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:28 AM

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SLP is 992 at the end of the run and in OK. Come to Daddy.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#43
Tom

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:30 AM

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Hey guys, back in the saddle...I caught some sort of stomach bug last night and knocked me out.  Glad to see the storm still showing up and I'm encouraged to see the 00z EPS shift the 2" snow mean SE across MN and into NE (just to the west of OMA) and it has expanded.  It's even seeing the secondary wave ride up towards the Lower Lakes on the 13th-14th...this may end up being a separate thread if trends continue.


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#44
TOL_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:31 AM

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Hey guys, back in the saddle...I caught some sort of stomach bug last night and knocked me out. Glad to see the storm still showing up and I'm encouraged to see the 00z EPS shift the 2" snow mean SE across MN and into NE (just to the west of OMA) and it has expanded. It's even seeing the secondary wave ride up towards the Lower Lakes on the 13th-14th...this may end up being a separate thread if trends continue.


Hope you're doing better Tom!

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#45
Tom

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:37 AM

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Hope you're doing better Tom!

Thank man, I hate getting sick...hope this storm turns out to be a "share the wealth" for the western & northern portion of the sub forum.  It's def trending in the right direction.



#46
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:47 AM

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Don’t see too many changes through hr 72 compared to 6z.

#47
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:55 AM

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Hair north and 2 mb stronger by hr 90 but pretty consistent overall

#48
Tom

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:56 AM

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Nice defo band near OMA on the 12z GFS...3-5" in 3 hrs...wow, nice hit for most of NE...



#49
TOL_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:01 AM

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This is awesome. Now we just need it to STAY for 4 days...

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#50
Snowlover76

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:02 AM

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What's the time frame for this?

I have a flight Friday morning from Omaha