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1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

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#51
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:02 AM

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Gem still doesn’t have much of a storm

#52
Tom

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:08 AM

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Gem still doesn’t have much of a storm

It somewhat has the idea of the storm...

 

gem_asnow_ncus_20.png



#53
Snowlover76

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:10 AM

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The GEM is on crack

#54
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:12 AM

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It somewhat has the idea of the storm...
 
gem_asnow_ncus_20.png


Eh it started out at 988 MB and then pretty much disappeared 24 hrs later. Hard to see that happening

#55
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:13 AM

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Cmc getting its act together but its way west

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#56
Iowawx

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:15 AM

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I am still hoping for a 75-100 mile shift southeast which seems possible, but will take anything from this storm system.



#57
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:17 AM

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What's the time frame for this?

I have a flight Friday morning from Omaha


You're fine. There's gonna be a clipper system Friday but that should be an incher.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#58
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:18 AM

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GEM is cuckoo for cocoa puffs. It has shown hilariously unrealistic solutions so many times for this storm, it's almost as if it's in a completely different world. I've written it off completely for this system. What it shows is just meteorologically wrong.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#59
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 08:20 AM

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I will say I do hope the system is slower than GFS is showing. I'm afraid GFS is a bit fast with the change over from rain to snow.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#60
CentralNebWeather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 09:03 AM

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Attached File  snow 7.png   284.66KB   1 downloads

My area of Central Nebraska looks good.  Still nervous about what might happen, however.  



#61
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 09:03 AM

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Ukie still way NW and takes the low through W WI

#62
snowstorm83

Posted 07 January 2018 - 09:10 AM

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FWIW, the 12z GEFS has taken a nice jog southeast from the 00z mean. 06z was also similar but I tend to pay less attention to 06z.


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#63
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 09:20 AM

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Many GEFS members are still being douchecopters about amounts/ptypes here. They'll come around. We're getting around to the point where ensembles have less say in things anyway.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#64
Tom

Posted 07 January 2018 - 09:40 AM

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Many GEFS members are still being douchecopters about amounts/ptypes here. They'll come around. We're getting around to the point where ensembles have less say in things anyway.

3" snow mean cutting right through OMA on the 12z GEFS and a notable shift SE compared to 00z...looking better for ya'll...S & C MN still looks good as well...DSM riding the 2" mean...



#65
centralweather44

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:06 AM

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snow 7.png
My area of Central Nebraska looks good. Still nervous about what might happen, however.


I would have to agree 100%. I just have a bad feeling this thing is going to shift a day or two before and end up with nothing. Just my gut though.
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#66
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:07 AM

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Not much change between 00z and 12z Euro @54. A hair stronger but that's it so far.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#67
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:13 AM

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This is gonna be my Euro update post. I'll edit it as the run comes in more.

 

Yeah so far there are no marked differences between Euro runs @ 78.

 

@ 84, the SLP is literally in the exact same spot at 00z. A bit North of where NAM put it. It's weird when NAM is the farthest south solution.

 

It's less good with the precip rates, but way wider with the range, with snow stretching from Oklahoma to Newfoundland.

 

Looks like heaviest rates will come to whoever gets under the thin bands. Reasonably, 3-6" ranges across Nebraska. Not too exciting, but with the clipper on Friday I'll take it.

 

Twin Cities with around 6", Duluth around 8", heaviest band in Iowa is from a Pacific Junction-Atlantic-Mankato line, at about 6". East of there there is a sharp cutoff.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#68
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:14 AM

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1002 L in central OK at 96

#69
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:29 AM

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Man 6 inches would be amazing. Cant remember the last time we have seen that much here

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#70
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:29 AM

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The secondary low goes from 1001 in MS to 985 over Detroit. Guessing MI does well with this?
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#71
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Ratios will be tricky. I'm leaning more towards 10:1, maybe 15:1 with this storm as winds will be powerful. Anyone who gets snow could see blizzard conditions.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#72
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:32 AM

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The secondary low goes from 1001 in MS to 985 over Detroit. Guessing MI does well with this?

I think ur best chance is a poo poo first wave...

When is the last time a cutter has come out with all energy in one piece???

#73
hlcater

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:33 AM

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This euro run is looking like an ORD/MI crush job with that secondary low dropping to 985 over Toledo and a 1050 high over the Dakotas. Meanwhile, E IA is stuck right in between the first and secondary wave with absolutely nothing.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#74
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:34 AM

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I think ur best chance is a poo poo first wave...


Pretty much something that will develop the secondary wave faster and farther west. There were some good looking gfs ensembles for it yesterday.

#75
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:37 AM

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Lnk how does that secondary low do for snowfall in the area?

#76
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:41 AM

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Lnk how does that secondary low do for snowfall in the area?

Run of the mill clipper. Maybe an inch to 1.5" possible for anyone who gets under it.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#77
Hawkeye

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:41 AM

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xNWi9Qh.jpg


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#78
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:42 AM

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Tom/jaster crush job
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#79
hlcater

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:43 AM

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xNWi9Qh.jpg

LOL, if that run verified I'd quit winter.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#80
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:44 AM

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Depending on what the first wave does the goalposts are wide for the second one...

#81
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:45 AM

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Depending on what the first wave does the goalposts are wide for the second one...


Stebow just said that’s as far west as you’ll see the secondary low tho

#82
hlcater

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:46 AM

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It is interesting though that models are placing more emphasis on the secondary wave and having it as strong as it is, normally the first wave gets priority and the second one isn't ever really allowed to develop.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#83
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:48 AM

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Stebow just said that’s as far west as you’ll see the secondary low tho


I like where u are if the first piece is over played... Of course the northern stream could dominate as well.. As could the first piece..

#84
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:48 AM

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Okay I brain farted Money. For some reason when you said second wave I thought you meant the clipper that's coming here Friday. Yeah the ACTUAL second wave is potent.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#85
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:49 AM

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Id be so pissed if ours went to s**t and chicago got slammed with 2nd wave lol

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#86
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:50 AM

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I like where u are if the first piece is over played... Of course the northern stream could dominate as well.. As could the first piece..


Yup a lot of moving parts.

Going to be a lot of people fighting for this
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#87
gabel23

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:55 AM

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What ever happens let’s all not freak out and just admire the fact Mother Nature is a teaser!! Here in nebraska we might get hit or we might not. Regardless I’m thinking we’re all going to be just fine this winter, Things will change for the better for us!
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#88
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Yup a lot of moving parts.

Going to be a lot of people fighting for this


Ya including Stebow.

1. First wave dominates it's cutting hard and I think I could see a Rainer.

2. first wave is a dud or not there. Depending where the energy ejects track could be all over with the main event. There isn't solid snow cover anywhere... Especially by the end of the week.

3. If it's somewhere in between and there is a decent first wave then Stebow might be right, but I also think the Euro shows about as perfect of a scenario for that as there can be.

#89
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 10:57 AM

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Id be so pissed if ours went to s**t and chicago got slammed with 2nd wave lol


Why?

#90
Madtown

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:04 AM

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^^^lol

#91
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:04 AM

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Gee, gosaints,why would i be happy if our storm weakened considerably only for the 2nd wave to slam the lakes again at full strength. I would be so happy if we git screwed again! /sarcasm

Lol.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#92
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:08 AM

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Gee, gosaints,why would i be happy if our storm weakened considerably only for the 2nd wave to slam the lakes again at full strength. I would be so happy if we git screwed again! /sarcasm

Lol.


Oh OK.. Can't wait to read your complaints if that happens... If this storm does hit you then maybe you won't hit the board with same posts the next time you get missed.
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#93
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:15 AM

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Gonna pretend like i didnt read that comment.

Anywsys i doubt that will happen

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#94
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:17 AM

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You said this storm was over etc yesterday tho

#95
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:17 AM

LNK_Weather

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It would take an epic fail by the models for this to completely miss us.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#96
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:20 AM

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I mean climo this time of year would argue Chicago should be more likely to get this storm compared to Omaha right??
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#97
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:21 AM

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Be interesting to see how the euro ensembles look

#98
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:23 AM

LNK_Weather

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I mean climo this time of year would argue Chicago should be more likely to get this storm compared to Omaha right??

Climo does not determine the track or amounts for one storm.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#99
gosaints

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:25 AM

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Climo does not determine the track or amounts for one storm.


This is true

#100
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:25 AM

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I know Tom is lurking.

What’s your thoughts on the secondary system??