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1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers


clintbeed1993

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Just because a model is consistent now doesn't mean it will stay consistent. Now, I hope GFS stays consistent cuz it has 8" for me. Like I said earlier, though, I'm not buying NAM's and HRRR's idea of a slot. The DPs are literally gonna be the exact same as the temps.

I don’t disagree with this at all. But if you haven’t noticed, I am all in with GFS haha and if it cuts down totals and or tracks E/SE, it is over.

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I don’t disagree with this at all. But if you haven’t noticed, I am all in with GFS haha and if it cuts down totals and or tracks E/SE, it is over.

If GFS is wrong this forum is gonna have a ton more Snowlover76s. And as a result a ton more Moneys. So everyone had better be rooting for us lol.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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GFS is inching closer and closer to DSM.  Probably won't quite get there, but it's not that far away.  

So this benefits no one lol it's literally a split between Nebraska posters and Iowa posters.

 

Prepare for the storm, of Nebraskans, complaining of a lack of one. If this is true, that is. Maybe LNK_WX and I can jog on over to Falls City and push this thing north ourselves.

 

 

 

EDIT: HRRR and Hi-rez NAM are lined up perfectly through 18hr as well. Not sure if it means much but might mean the NAM was right with the E trend.

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18.4” below normal here already this season. And that number might go UP after this ‘storm’. Haha. That’s how bad it is.

Might as well shoot for futility records.  Goes to show how pointless trying to pinpoint seasonal forecast is unless there is a super sized driving force like el nino

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Wow i give up. All the NAM models and the GFS show an inch or less here. Going completely how everything else has gone the last several winters, looks good for a few days prior then boom BUST. And the band keeps narrowing as it heads east so i wouldn't get excited Iowa posters. its a HEART BREAKER

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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They are going to need a good wet 5"-6". Terrible year so far in most of Wisconsin. 

 

http://dx1webcamhosting.com/lolrec/trail.jpg

 

 

Lando is bad right now....got friends in the Mercer area atm ans its a little better. This should be enough to make it enjoyable and get to the UP if need be.

 

Wow, trail riding looks like mud riding..ugly

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, on the bright side the Friday clipper looks like . I guess this is better we know 18 hours before instead of having a blizzard warning issued and have a nowcast bust.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This run of the GFS is really close to hitting James good. It's even got over 2" for DSM this run. And we're still 18-24 hours away from most people seeing the start, so future runs could shift even more.

Grizzcoat will be happy with the run. He's NW or WNW of DSM by 20-25 miles. I'm on SW side of town...so not as good but have more to watch than I thought a few days ago.

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Okay I just looked at the GFS run. Still not AWFUL, especially considering I live in far SE Lincoln. The smallest curveball can still bring 6". Still not believing the entire dryness thing that the American models are flirting with. SE trend can go **** itself though and I hope it stops.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I am following the short term models RAP and HRRR. I do fairly well in Central Nebraska with these, 2-3 inches or a little more. For those with more knowledge than myself, are there other short term models to look at, or are these all right? Thanks for the information.

RGEM is an ******* to Lincoln, surrounds us with snow. Didn't check how it does your way but it was posted here earlier.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I am following the short term models RAP and HRRR.  I do fairly well in Central Nebraska with these, 2-3 inches or a little more.  For those with more knowledge than myself, are there other short term models to look at, or are these all right?  Thanks for the information.  

Way to far out to put any faith in the RAP or HRRR.  They fail within 1 hour of impact

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Wow, trail riding looks like mud riding..ugly

Could always be worse... this is what they looked like last February when we planned on taking some guests up riding for Presidents Day weekend. I ended up sitting out in a beer garden with shorts and flip flops all day

 

 

 

7632B684-1976-4604-A5CA-6331814F8914.png

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