1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[CentralNebWeather]

Way to far out to put any faith in the RAP or HRRR.  They fail within 1 hour of impact

Thanks for the help.  Appreciate it.

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR looks good for us at the end. Still has the unbelievable dry slot to our West.

[gosaints]

Thanks for the help.  Appreciate it.

I look at them all the time to.  Sometimes they are right sometimes horrible.  

[gosaints]

Guessing La Crosse will issue advisory for the area here.  

[Jaycee]

3km NAM is not a long range model.

 

The Hrrr doesn't have precip breaking out until like 6pm tonight. 

Ahh, I didn't see that. You're right. Man, my optimism is dwindling. Guess I'll just hope for the best and expect the worst at this point.

[gosaints]

La Crosse goes with Winter Storm Watch.  Interesting considering the event basically starts in about 15 hours.

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR is trending towards less of a slot. Like I thought.

[bud2380]

La Crosse goes with Winter Storm Watch.  Interesting considering the event basically starts in about 15 hours.

I think that is confirmation that they also have no idea what is going to happen.  Makes you wonder how any storm was reasonably forecasted 20+ years ago.  

[St Paul Storm]

La Crosse goes with Winter Storm Watch.  Interesting considering the event basically starts in about 15 hours.

They should have done that late last night. Rochester snow magnet is turned on. Not sure what they were waiting for.

[bud2380]

UK

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-060_0000.gif

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR not looking horrible for us. Gosaints, don't crucify me

[gosaints]

HRRR not looking horrible for us. Gosaints, don't crucify me

Not saying dont look at just saying dont take at verbatim at this range it has burned me to many times.  Its like trusting the GFS 48 hours out

[gosaints]

They should have done that late last night. Rochester snow magnet is turned on. Not sure what they were waiting for.

If current trends hold they probably need another row of counties to the east as well.  

 

The watch is an interesting choice.  I am surprised they just didnt wait for the EURO and go advisory or warning.

[Tabitha]

Anticipating actual measurable precipitation (i.e. in excess of a trace) in the Black Hills today; first time this year.

 

Perhaps I should take a picture and frame it; for "next time" may never present itself...

[Minny_Weather]

Anticipating actual measurable precipitation (i.e. in excess of a trace) in the Black Hills today; first time this year.

 

Perhaps I should take a picture and frame it; for "next time" may never present itself...

How far below normal are you on the year? I know that region has been fairly dry since the Fall.

[Tabitha]

How far below normal are you on the year? I know that region has been fairly dry since the Fall.

 

All questions must be submitted on papyrus & notarized by the clerk...

[St Paul Storm]

If current trends hold they probably need another row of counties to the east as well.

 

The watch is an interesting choice. I am surprised they just didnt wait for the EURO and go advisory or warning.

I suppose they want to make the public aware of the trends. Although there’s nothing better than going from nothing to a warning. The fact that MPX hasn’t updated anything on the WWA or the HWO since very early this morning tells me they aren’t confident in anything right now. I still have 3-5” in my point.

[hlcater]

Nah, NE posters get a complaining pass with this one. I know I'd be pissed if my totals got halved less than 24hours from the event.

[Minny_Weather]

Honestly I'm more mad about the clipper Friday going to . With that, I knew that at least provided a couple inch security blanket in case tonight's storm was underwhelming.

[bud2380]

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011012/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_42.png

[Minny_Weather]

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011012/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_42.png

Not horrible when you consider that's 10:1.

[Minny_Weather]

Here's the problem with Euro. IT'S SHOWING RAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW! It's gonna be in the teens! How can liquid rain fall in mid to lower teens?! Add about another inch of snow from Lincoln to Fairbury due to that blunder.

[gabel23]

This is painful!!! I go from a solid 3-5" snow to being lucky to eek out 2". Wow mother nature, you are brutal! 

[NEJeremy]

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011012/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_42.png

Ha! Southeast we go. At least every model is in agreement now. My grid point for tonight and tomorrow has changed from 1-3" tonight and 2-4" tomorrow, to 1" tonight and 2-4" tomorrow, and that appears overdone still. 

[Tabitha]

 With that, I knew that at least provided a couple inch security blanket in case tonight's storm was underwhelming.

 

Worse comes to worse; you can always borrow one from Linus...

 

40 F here with snow as close Belle Fourche!

 

Might start as rain...as they say, maybe, maybe not!

 

16z HRRR with a over 0.1 LE...ground might even turn white again here; with a little bit of luck...

 

Ohh...my 216th post...if you think about it, 6 is the cubed root of 216, in other words it is equivalent to 6 x 6 x 6...

[GDR]

I say we keep up with the southeast movement some more! Should be fun

[Minny_Weather]

My forecast was 2-4" for Lincoln. I said that could change and that someone in SE Neb could see over 6".

[Minny_Weather]

All we need is 1.7" (EDIT: OF SNOW!!!!!!) for Nebraska_WX and I to build a snow penis in snowlover's yard. COME ONNNNN

[FarmerRick]

All we need is 1.7" for Nebraska_WX and I to build a snow penis in snowlover's yard. COME ONNNNN

[Tabitha]

All we need is 1.7" for Nebraska_WX and I to build a snow penis in snowlover's yard. COME ONNNNN

 

You are aiming too high...

[Minny_Weather]

Appropriately edited my post to keep from getting banned and arrested for sexual harrassment or anything..

[FarmerRick]

Appropriately edited my post to keep from getting banned and arrested for sexual harrassment or anything..

Well, you do have your locations as being SHAFT CITY....  

[CentralNebWeather]

Channel 13 Meteorologist - "Most areas will see under 3" of snowfall. Two bands of heavier snow look to develop. One west/northwest Tri-Cities will try to get close to 4" while southeast Nebraska may see totals pushing 6"

 

I am west of Kearney, Hastings, Grand Island (tri-cities).  Some areas around me are getting close to 4" on the short range models.  Keep hope alive I guess.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Who the hell knows anymore. This storm is dead to me lol

[Minny_Weather]

Channel 13 Meteorologist - "Most areas will see under 3" of snowfall. Two bands of heavier snow look to develop. One west/northwest Tri-Cities will try to get close to 4" while southeast Nebraska may see totals pushing 6"

 

I am west of Kearney, Hastings, Grand Island (tri-cities). Some areas around me are getting close to 4" on the short range models. Keep hope alive I guess.

Did you see Travis Klanecky's post? His context was horrible. Posted a low-end snowfall map and said that was his last post as if to say that was his final post and no more shifts we're possible.

[Minny_Weather]

Judging by updated accumulation amounts on the point grid, I think it's a safe bet Lincoln will get an advisory.

[Minny_Weather]

Here's the Euro's problem. On the tail end of the snowband, it's showing rain on the ptype. Now, if it were borderline temps this would be reasonable. But as you can see, temps at the time would be 18. Upper air temps are still cold. There is no meteorological explanation for a changeover to rain, thus the Euro blundered. And that blunder severely jacks down snow totals for anyone who gets "rain." That's why I said add an inch from Lincoln to Fairbury.

[CentralNebWeather]

Did you see Travis Klanecky's post? His context was horrible. Posted a low-end snowfall map and said that was his last post as if to say that was his final post and no more shifts we're possible.

I didn't see that.  I follow Tim Reith from NTV (ABC) Channel 13 out of Kearney.  I took the information from his Twitter page.  I respect what Tim says.  I have always thought he had too much talent to be at a small station like this. 

[Tabitha]

Extremely sharp cold front on the weather map; Hulett Airport in NE Wyoming (very close to the intersection of MT, WY, & SD) reported a temperature of 30 F at 10:00 AM MDT; 90 minutes later @ 11:30 AM MDT they were down to 14 F.

[gosaints]

Here's the Euro's problem. On the tail end of the snowband, it's showing rain on the ptype. Now, if it were borderline temps this would be reasonable. But as you can see, temps at the time would be 18. Upper air temps are still cold. There is no meteorological explanation for a changeover to rain, thus the Euro blundered. And that blunder severely jacks down snow totals for anyone who gets "rain." That's why I said add an inch from Lincoln to Fairbury.

Loss ice crystals in clouds??  We commenly end storms as mist around here for that reason.  Not saying the model is right just guessing thats why it is showing what it is.