1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah . We're getting an advisory. Unless OAX decides the flash freezing + snow is worthy of a warning.

[Tabitha]

Yeah s**t. We're getting an advisory. Unless OAX decides the flash freezing + snow is worthy of a warning.

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/mkx/spotters/mkxthresholds.pdf

 

 

Pages 43 & 44 on this one:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005013curr.pdf

[Minny_Weather]

https://www.weather.gov/media/mkx/spotters/mkxthresholds.pdf

Eh, blowing snow may be bad enough to warrant a warning, too.

 

Also, those are MKX's thresholds. OAX tends to be a bit different. When ice AND snow are involved, usually they are pretty warning-happy regardless of amounts. A couple years back they issued a WSW for what ended up being .10" of ice and 1" of snow. So you never really know. WFOs bend the rules a lot.

[Minny_Weather]

Pages 43 & 44 on this one:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005013curr.pdf

Thank you for that one! I actually bookmarked it.

[Minny_Weather]

Loss ice crystals in clouds?? We commenly end storms as mist around here for that reason. Not saying the model is right just guessing thats why it is showing what it is.

I would think that if it was just light rain and not a whole part of the band.

[CentralNebWeather]

On the 18Z NAM and 18Z 3K NAM they have a very thin intense band covering what looks to be about 15 miles over South Central Nebraska.  In my county it ranges from 1-9" on the 18Z and 3-7" on the 18Z 3K.  I know 18Z's are not trustworthy, just interesting looking at these bands.

[jaster220]

Could always be worse... this is what they looked like last February when we planned on taking some guests up riding for Presidents Day weekend. I ended up sitting out in a beer garden with shorts and flip flops all day

 

 

 

7632B684-1976-4604-A5CA-6331814F8914.png

 

I remember that post/pic.. Tbh, as cloudy as we've had it due to the LES off of Lk Mich, I'd welcome that mild and sunny day, lol. We get the mild/rain/mushy snowpack but sans any hint of sun. More like Pea Soup fog! 

[jaster220]

I say we keep up with the southeast movement some more! Should be fun

 

So you can steal the Neb peep's last snow crumb as it falls from their hands?? Mighty cold u r

[St Paul Storm]

18z 12km NAM with now two intense bands in NE, IS and MN....one of them farther NW. God bless that NAM.

[Minny_Weather]

So you can steal the Neb peep's last snow crumb as it falls from their hands?? Might cold u r

Anyone who steals snow from us should be punished by death.

[Grizzcoat]

Very close to warning here but I will take the WWA. James I believe in warning!! Congrats buddy!!

[snowstorm83]

OAX warnings/advisories are out. Their choice of where to place the warnings is.....interesting. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice eye candy.  It is like throwing darts at the wall.  It has most of my county in 6-9 inches on 18z 3K NAM.  Might end up being .6 inches.  Who knows?

[Minny_Weather]

OAX warnings/advisories are out. Their choice of where to place the warnings is.....interesting.

Yeah I thought it'd be a WWA CWA-wide. I guess they did it to coordinate with DMX

[Minny_Weather]

Still thinking this will be a nowcast thing. For both amounts and locations. It has happened so many times here where end result is way different than what any model put out. Remember Christmas Eve 2015? Or the ice storm last year where it unexpectedly got to 33? How about Groundhog Day 2016 where we were in the bullseye for a while leading up to the event?

[Money]

Here's the Euro's problem. On the tail end of the snowband, it's showing rain on the ptype. Now, if it were borderline temps this would be reasonable. But as you can see, temps at the time would be 18. Upper air temps are still cold. There is no meteorological explanation for a changeover to rain, thus the Euro blundered. And that blunder severely jacks down snow totals for anyone who gets "rain." That's why I said add an inch from Lincoln to Fairbury.

What was the temp 6 hours before that?

[Minny_Weather]

What was the temp 6 hours before that?

If that has to do with anything, 21.

[Money]

If that has to do with anything, 21.

I’m saying because those are 6 hr maps.

 

The precip could have fell 5-6 hours before that when it was warmer

[Minny_Weather]

I’m saying because those are 6 hr maps.

 

The precip could have fell 5-6 hours before that when it was warmer

Yeah the freezing line will get here around 3 or so I think. Think we get a solid hour of sleet after that.

[bud2380]

This is one gigantic area of Winter Weather Watches/warnings/advisories, wow.  

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

[Minny_Weather]

This is one gigantic area of Winter Weather Watches/warnings/advisories, wow.  

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

Gee, where is the band supposed to set up in there?!

[Tabitha]

Anticipating actual measurable precipitation (i.e. in excess of a trace) in the Black Hills today; first time this year.

 

Perhaps I should take a picture and frame it; for "next time" may never present itself...

 

Some snowflakes here

I had better not blink

Or, as My Father would say

"Enjoy it while you've got it

For it is later than you think!"

[NEJeremy]

18Z GFS like all the others. Finally some consistency. Too bad that's east of Omaha/Lincoln. WS warning matches up well

[Minny_Weather]

Slightest nowcast tick West and I'm in the running here in SE Lincoln. Sadly, radar trends are East right now so I don't think that'll happen.

[Jaycee]

Slightest nowcast tick West and I'm in the running here in SE Lincoln. Sadly, radar trends are East right now so I don't think that'll happen.

I'm out with this storm. RAP is even further East, has the heaviest in Rockport, MO. I'm so mad about this one, what a joke the models were. We'll need a miracle for them to all be wrong.

 

​EDIT: speak of the diablo. look who gets the clipper this weekend too. smdh. This one really stings.

[Stormgeek]

Wow, the northern area of precip is less than an hour away (north) from my house while the piece I was watching all week is forecast an hour or 2 away (south). Man weather is a strange beast...

[Tabitha]

Some snowflakes here

I had better not blink

Or, as My Father would say

"Enjoy it while you've got it

For it is later than you think!"

 

Snowing pretty nicely here since about 3 PM MDT with the visibility down to 1/4 mile and the temperature having fallen back to about 15 F.

 

N Winds between 30 & 40 mph and gusty...

[james1976]

Very close to warning here but I will take the WWA. James I believe in warning!! Congrats buddy!!

WWA but Warning is 10 miles away!

[Minny_Weather]

Just for shyts and giggles, radar trends are about a county West compared to models.

[NH4NU]

[Snowlover76]

Just for shyts and giggles, radar trends are about a county West compared to models.

Put the bong down

[Stormgeek]

At least these systems are fun to watch develop. With so much chaos and such a weenie band, radar and trend tracking is definitely worth something.

[Minny_Weather]

Put the bong down

Dude... This is huge. Instead of 1.0", we may get 1.1".

[Snowlover76]

Dude... This is huge. Instead of 1.0", we may get 1.1".

Lol

[NH4NU]

This storm reminds me of the time UNL students b**ched so much that Harvey Pearlman finally caved and cancelled classes. It was super windy but ended up busting like this and LNK got maybe 2.5”

[Minny_Weather]

This storm reminds me of the time UNL students b**ched so much that Harvey Pearlman finally caved and cancelled classes. It was super windy but ended up busting like this and LNK got maybe 2.5”

I'm gonna b**ch and make SCC cancel. Hell, Omaha schools are doing it. I love it when school districts are oblivious to model trends. I don't wanna go to class tomorrow.

[Minny_Weather]

Just for the record, this HRRR run isn't looking AWFUL.

 

EDIT: LOL PRANKED it still sucks.

[NH4NU]

School districts anymore plan for snow days and allot a certain number just in case. If none have been used (like none were in December) schools are more willing to call it early because if they aren’t used they are wasted. PLUS even though it’s not much, we all know how awful tomorrow’s commute is going to be. Nebraska drivers lose their minds and common sense in inclement weather.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This entire system is a joke and for how great it looked over California it falls apart quickly here and has little organization. RAP / HRRR both have Omaha getting zero inches including Lincoln. 

[St Paul Storm]

I’m fairly confident (not really) that I’ll get more snow from Sunday’s potential clipper than this storm. But chances of me tracking that clipper....0%.