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1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

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#101
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:34 AM

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12z nam was much colder for Wednesday in the 30s. Thats interesting

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#102
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:34 AM

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Something about the way that the euro handles the dissipating of the first wave seems a bit off to me. I can't exactly pinpoint what it is.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#103
East Dubzz

Posted 07 January 2018 - 12:07 PM

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Looks fine to be. Hopefully all the snow is gone this week so I can get out in the yard and start working on the golf game :)
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#104
Tom

Posted 07 January 2018 - 12:15 PM

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I know Tom is lurking.

What’s your thoughts on the secondary system??

I am, but today I'm not quite 100% and haven't been posting much and just reading everyone's posts while I re cooperate.  I've been in the kitchen whipping up some good soup to detox!  

 

Anyhow, this season I've seen many times the southern energy becomes the dominant player.  There have been several examples of this in Oct and in Nov.  The 12z Euro op had a very strong 500mb vorticity track due west/east across the southern Plains, of which, a piece of energy did track up towards the W GL's, however, the main show dug towards the Texarkana region and looked like several systems in the past that took this track  (Oct 9th-11th, Oct 22nd-24th, Nov 17th-18th, Nov 28-29th) and then eventually cuts NE up the OV as the Atlantic ridge steers the storm while phasing with the northern stream.

 

Just glanced at the 12z EPS and it has weakened the 1st wave and focusing more energy on the southern piece.  The snow mean has lessened out west and picked up substantially in IL/IN/OH/MI as there are many more members (some even have snow down into S MO/TN/KY.  The 4" snow mean is as far west as Chicago/Indy and points east and north do better. 


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#105
NH4NU

Posted 07 January 2018 - 12:19 PM

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North Platte's -- Special Weather Statement

 

...POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

A storm system will move across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday. It appears that at least light snow accumulations are
likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At this time it is
uncertain if heavy snow will occur. Regardless, strong north winds
with gusts over 40 mph and rapidly falling temperatures through
the teens can be expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Visibility will likely be restricted late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning due to blowing snow. This would even occur with
just light snow accumulations. Please stay tuned for later
forecast statements regarding this potential winter storm.

 

OAX -- HWO

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A winter storm is forecast to move onto the central Plains Wednesday
night into Thursday. While the specific details remain uncertain
this far out, confidence remains somewhat high that at least some
portion of the outlook area could experience a few inches of snow
along with blowing and drifting snow and sharply colder temperatures.
Please stay tuned to later outlooks as details become more clear
later this week.

Additional snow chances are in the forecast both Friday and
Saturday as a couple of clipper systems move through the region.



#106
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 12:49 PM

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18z nam has a 995.5 L in central OK at 84.

#107
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 12:55 PM

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I like the direction NAM is going.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#108
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:16 PM

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Nam looks compact and intense

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#109
Tom

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:17 PM

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Trends in the EPS indicating a neg tilt trough somewhere along the OV...this is for the secondary piece of energy...if trends persist over the next day or two, might want to consider extending the dates on this thread or maybe create a new separate one.

Attached Files


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#110
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:18 PM

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Nam looks compact and intense


Lol it’s weakening it by the end of the run already

#111
centralweather44

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:19 PM

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Getting excited by the nam this far out is a bad idea

#112
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:35 PM

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I like the direction NAM is going.

What run was I looking at? 18z looks awful. Way too fast and thin to produce anything really good here.

 

Still shows a defo band which may provide for some good rates but behind that there's almost nothing.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#113
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:52 PM

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18z GFS thru hr 78 is stronger at 988.
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#114
Stormgeek

Posted 07 January 2018 - 01:59 PM

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Man, GFS is just not budging with this. Sure, it moves a little, but for this far out it is so consistent. Hoping other models cave to it. I will start thinking this materializes if we have some consensus still on Tuesday.



#115
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 02:13 PM

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Gfs by far strongest with the first wave

Almost 5 mb stronger than nam

#116
Grizzcoat

Posted 07 January 2018 - 02:22 PM

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DMX talking potential blizzard conditions-

 

-PoPs will then increase sharply into Wed Night as the storm
approaches. Although typical differences exits in the details at
this time range, the 12z ECMWF, GFS and CMC all depict an
impactful winter storm for some portion of Iowa. The leading
warm/theta-e advection surge may not result in much but there is
an abrupt and sharp increase in frontogenetic forcing and response
along and north of the surface front Wed Night and is quickly
followed by an equally strong mid level kinematic DPVA and
deformation contribution. This phases into deep and strong forcing
Wed Night into Thu morning with with EC and GFS both very similar
in this evolution resulting in increased confidence for this time
range. QPF amounts are similar as well and show moderate to heavy
snow amounts across the NW half of Iowa with a tight MSLP
gradient boosting sustained winds to 15-20kts. The mixing depth
does not appear too deep, but the strength of the system and
pressure gradient would still support gusts of 30-35kts. The
degree of forcing and subsequent precip rates, phased with these
winds, could support appreciable blowing snow potentially
approaching or exceeding blizzard criteria. It is of course too
early for confidence in this materializing to be too high, but is
certainly something to watch and consider in the coming days with
the EC, GFS and CMC all suggesting QPF around a half inch in the
deformation zone. The lift in the Dendritic Growth Zone and it`s
depth does not appear to be significant per the GFS at this point,
but even snow ratios toward climatology /13:1/ in this QPF would
produce appreciable accumulations. Elevated values well through
the 90th percentile of precipitable water, specific humidity and
integrated water vapor transport just ahead of this system per the
12z NAEFS would support this fairly high QPF amounts as well.



#117
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 02:22 PM

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Yeah. Just wish it wasn't so progressive with it. The precip is completely out of here by sunrise on that run. Not good considering it has the changeover just after midnight and it'll take a bit for accumulations to start happening.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#118
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 02:23 PM

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Regardless of amounts, I can see blizzard warnings going up for the Plains. With gusts up to 45mph possible, any snow that does fall will blow like crazy.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#119
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 02:25 PM

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GFS is making Friday's clipper look stronger. May kinda make up for missing the first wave for Iowa. Especially in James' area.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#120
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 02:27 PM

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Stronger with the secondary low

12+ for nw Ohio and Detroit area
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#121
St Paul Storm

Posted 07 January 2018 - 02:38 PM

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Yeah liking that Friday clipper as well on the GFS.

MPX still hasn’t posted their afternoon disco, which is odd.

#122
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 03:55 PM

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One tick North over the next 3.5 days and we're screwed.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#123
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 04:54 PM

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Yea wont take much for us to be royally screwed lol. Your never safe in the omadome bubble

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#124
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:09 PM

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All of you non Nebraska weather posters here better sure hope to heaven that we get this storm or your gonna have to hear about it all over again lol. 


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#125
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:26 PM

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All of you non Nebraska weather posters here better sure hope to heaven that we get this storm or your gonna have to hear about it all over again lol. 

Obligatory "you have one more inch of snow than us this Winter" lecture coming up!


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#126
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 05:38 PM

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Obligatory "you have one more inch of snow than us this Winter" lecture coming up!

LOL. 


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#127
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:26 PM

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This will be the first NAM run with snow actually on us. Hopefully, at least. If not that'll be a screwball.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#128
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:40 PM

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Nam coming in about 4 mb stronger so far through hr 66

#129
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:43 PM

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Looks like rain for Lincoln

#130
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:44 PM

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I’m rooting for the nam

#131
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:47 PM

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Looks like rain for Lincoln

What website do you use? You're pretty far ahead of me.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#132
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:47 PM

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Central NE gets crushed

Low really weakens (goes from 987 to 1000) in 15 hours

#133
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:48 PM

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Looks like rain for Lincoln

It was rain for when it was supposed to be rain. Snow @78.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#134
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:49 PM

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What website do you use? You're pretty far ahead of me.


Instant Weather Maps

Low nearly goes through Nebraska this run

#135
CentralNebWeather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:50 PM

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Wow, NAM I love you. My area gets hit hard. Still waiting to believe it.Attached File  B9E70669-EFAE-4986-9E71-BEFC22BD56CB.gif   47.85KB   0 downloads
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#136
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:51 PM

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By hr 84 there’s no defined area of pressure anywhere

I’m guessing this would be pretty good for a secondary system right gosaints/Tom? Travels farther west and really craps out

#137
jcwxguy

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:52 PM

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snku_acc.us_c.png

#138
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:52 PM

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Damnit!


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#139
Madtown

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:54 PM

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Well if this one doesn't drop any snow I the Northwood it might be time to cancel the sledding trip. Trails are real thin after the weekend, warm temps could finish em off this week.

#140
Hoosier

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:55 PM

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By hr 84 there’s no defined area of pressure anywhere

I’m guessing this would be pretty good for a secondary system right gosaints/Tom? Travels farther west and really craps out

There's a lot of energy digging in behind the first wave (which really deamplifies with time so the weakening surface low makes sense) so it would likely have a pretty good secondary storm if it went out far enough.

#141
CentralNebWeather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:56 PM

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It has my county at 16.2 inches. Nice to look at but not getting overly excited. Been disappointed too many times here.

#142
Money

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:57 PM

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There's a lot of energy digging in behind the first wave (which really deamplifies with time so the weakening surface low makes sense) so it would likely have a pretty good secondary storm if it went out far enough.


Makes sense

So for the big secondary system you would much rather have the first wave trend west/weaker which would allow the second system to trend farther west right? Anything in the middle wouldn’t really work

#143
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:57 PM

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LOL just wonderful. Models start to trend south over us for a time only to start going back north again. GFS ensembles are also just north of us as well. Just like taking candy away from a baby


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#144
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 06:59 PM

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Gah that was bad. I don't like this weakening trend NAM has.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#145
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:00 PM

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The problem is that secondary low on the backside on the NAM kicking our low north too early. Man this thing comes in way south into southern california and honestly thought it was gonna be an amazing run for us until that happened. 


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#146
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:05 PM

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Yeah this is definitely not a good start to the 00z suite for us. We're getting the Eastern Iowa treatment.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#147
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:10 PM

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Well we shall know in about 50 minutes from the gfs if its a trend for the night

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#148
snowstorm83

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:11 PM

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It's long range NAM. Wouldn't get any panties in a bunch until GFS/Euro.
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#149
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:24 PM

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This only provides us a sit on the edge of your seat show. This s**t aint over yet until the fat lady sings

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#150
NebraskaWX

Posted 07 January 2018 - 07:38 PM

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Lol id rather the NAM show that now tbh. Jackpot this far out is no bueno
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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50