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1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

clintbeed1993

By clintbeed1993
in East of the Rockies

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FarmerRick
FarmerRick

Too many thin-skinned people who get all butt-hurt and cant take a joke, and too many people messing with said people when a storm doesn't go exactly the way the models show a few days out.  It's like

Tabitha
Tabitha

I also want to go on the record and say that all those posts last night attacking me and wishing death on me were a disgrace.   I playfully joke around with people and make pleasant satirical comments

gosaints
gosaints

Oh OK.. Can't wait to read your complaints if that happens... If this storm does hit you then maybe you won't hit the board with same posts the next time you get missed.

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

It is interesting though that models are placing more emphasis on the secondary wave and having it as strong as it is, normally the first wave gets priority and the second one isn't ever really allowed to develop.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

What ever happens let’s all not freak out and just admire the fact Mother Nature is a teaser!! Here in nebraska we might get hit or we might not. Regardless I’m thinking we’re all going to be just fine this winter, Things will change for the better for us!

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

Posted
Posted

Yup a lot of moving parts.

 

Going to be a lot of people fighting for this

Ya including Stebow.

 

1. First wave dominates it's cutting hard and I think I could see a Rainer.

 

2. first wave is a dud or not there. Depending where the energy ejects track could be all over with the main event. There isn't solid snow cover anywhere... Especially by the end of the week.

 

3. If it's somewhere in between and there is a decent first wave then Stebow might be right, but I also think the Euro shows about as perfect of a scenario for that as there can be.

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

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Gee, gosaints,why would i be happy if our storm weakened considerably only for the 2nd wave to slam the lakes again at full strength. I would be so happy if we git screwed again! /sarcasm

 

Lol.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

Posted
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Gee, gosaints,why would i be happy if our storm weakened considerably only for the 2nd wave to slam the lakes again at full strength. I would be so happy if we git screwed again! /sarcasm

 

Lol.

Oh OK.. Can't wait to read your complaints if that happens... If this storm does hit you then maybe you won't hit the board with same posts the next time you get missed.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

I know Tom is lurking.

 

What’s your thoughts on the secondary system??

I am, but today I'm not quite 100% and haven't been posting much and just reading everyone's posts while I re cooperate.  I've been in the kitchen whipping up some good soup to detox!  

 

Anyhow, this season I've seen many times the southern energy becomes the dominant player.  There have been several examples of this in Oct and in Nov.  The 12z Euro op had a very strong 500mb vorticity track due west/east across the southern Plains, of which, a piece of energy did track up towards the W GL's, however, the main show dug towards the Texarkana region and looked like several systems in the past that took this track  (Oct 9th-11th, Oct 22nd-24th, Nov 17th-18th, Nov 28-29th) and then eventually cuts NE up the OV as the Atlantic ridge steers the storm while phasing with the northern stream.

 

Just glanced at the 12z EPS and it has weakened the 1st wave and focusing more energy on the southern piece.  The snow mean has lessened out west and picked up substantially in IL/IN/OH/MI as there are many more members (some even have snow down into S MO/TN/KY.  The 4" snow mean is as far west as Chicago/Indy and points east and north do better. 

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NH4NU Apprentice

NH4NU

Posted
Posted

North Platte's -- Special Weather Statement

 

...POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

A storm system will move across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday. It appears that at least light snow accumulations are
likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At this time it is
uncertain if heavy snow will occur. Regardless, strong north winds
with gusts over 40 mph and rapidly falling temperatures through
the teens can be expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Visibility will likely be restricted late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning due to blowing snow. This would even occur with
just light snow accumulations. Please stay tuned for later
forecast statements regarding this potential winter storm.

 

OAX -- HWO

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A winter storm is forecast to move onto the central Plains Wednesday
night into Thursday. While the specific details remain uncertain
this far out, confidence remains somewhat high that at least some
portion of the outlook area could experience a few inches of snow
along with blowing and drifting snow and sharply colder temperatures.
Please stay tuned to later outlooks as details become more clear
later this week.

Additional snow chances are in the forecast both Friday and
Saturday as a couple of clipper systems move through the region.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Trends in the EPS indicating a neg tilt trough somewhere along the OV...this is for the secondary piece of energy...if trends persist over the next day or two, might want to consider extending the dates on this thread or maybe create a new separate one.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

Posted
Posted

I like the direction NAM is going.

What run was I looking at? 18z looks awful. Way too fast and thin to produce anything really good here.

 

Still shows a defo band which may provide for some good rates but behind that there's almost nothing.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

DMX talking potential blizzard conditions-

 

-PoPs will then increase sharply into Wed Night as the storm
approaches. Although typical differences exits in the details at
this time range, the 12z ECMWF, GFS and CMC all depict an
impactful winter storm for some portion of Iowa. The leading
warm/theta-e advection surge may not result in much but there is
an abrupt and sharp increase in frontogenetic forcing and response
along and north of the surface front Wed Night and is quickly
followed by an equally strong mid level kinematic DPVA and
deformation contribution. This phases into deep and strong forcing
Wed Night into Thu morning with with EC and GFS both very similar
in this evolution resulting in increased confidence for this time
range. QPF amounts are similar as well and show moderate to heavy
snow amounts across the NW half of Iowa with a tight MSLP
gradient boosting sustained winds to 15-20kts. The mixing depth
does not appear too deep, but the strength of the system and
pressure gradient would still support gusts of 30-35kts. The
degree of forcing and subsequent precip rates, phased with these
winds, could support appreciable blowing snow potentially
approaching or exceeding blizzard criteria. It is of course too
early for confidence in this materializing to be too high, but is
certainly something to watch and consider in the coming days with
the EC, GFS and CMC all suggesting QPF around a half inch in the
deformation zone. The lift in the Dendritic Growth Zone and it`s
depth does not appear to be significant per the GFS at this point,
but even snow ratios toward climatology /13:1/ in this QPF would
produce appreciable accumulations. Elevated values well through
the 90th percentile of precipitable water, specific humidity and
integrated water vapor transport just ahead of this system per the
12z NAEFS would support this fairly high QPF amounts as well.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

Posted
Posted

Yeah. Just wish it wasn't so progressive with it. The precip is completely out of here by sunrise on that run. Not good considering it has the changeover just after midnight and it'll take a bit for accumulations to start happening.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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