1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[hlcater]

Inch of ice with temps in the mid 20’s would be fun

ehh, I'll hard pass on that one.

[Tabitha]

Canadian with the usual P.O.S. solution...

[Iowawx]

Does it seem like the GFS is trending east for the first wave? Seems like now it tracks from Southwest Kansas to Western Illinois.

[james1976]

GFS more realistic totals.

[Tom]

The earlier the phase with the secondary low, the better chance any of us near the Lower Lakes gets snow.  Earlier today, I pointed out several examples of the southern piece being the dominant player this season.  This particular system is very similar to the late Oct GL's bomb.  That's one juice up storm if everything comes together.  Prob will start a separate thread for this particular system tomorrow if trends hold.

[hlcater]

The earlier the phase with the secondary low, the better chance any of us near the Lower Lakes gets snow.  Earlier today, I pointed out several examples of the southern piece being the dominant player this season.  This particular system is very similar to the late Oct GL's bomb.  That's one juice up storm if everything comes together.  Prob will start a separate thread for this particular system tomorrow if trends hold.

Not feeling good about our odds for either system over here, but it is what it is I guess. Most of NE should finally do well with the first wave by the looks of it. Also skeptical of the secondary wave having the juice that it does, especially if the northern wave is as strong or stronger than modeled. I would think it would keep the secondary piece of energy more disorganized, as is what typically happens.

[Minny_Weather]

Also skeptical of the secondary wave having the juice that it does, especially if the northern wave is as strong or stronger than modeled. I would think it would keep the secondary piece of energy more disorganized, as is what typically happens.

I didn't want to say this cuz it'd look like I was wishcasting, obviously the weaker the second wave the better for us, but this is exactly what I was thinking. It randomly gets potent out of nowhere and completely cuts off the previously strong first wave.

[Tabitha]

0z DWD / ICON German model way south; takes a 1004 mb low from Dallas to south of Shreveport....destroys central Kansas up through Omaha...

[Minny_Weather]

DWD / ICON German model

That exists?!

[Tom]

Not feeling good about our odds for either system over here, but it is what it is I guess. Most of NE should finally do well with the first wave by the looks of it. Also skeptical of the secondary wave having the juice that it does, especially if the northern wave is as strong or stronger than modeled. I would think it would keep the secondary piece of energy more disorganized, as is what typically happens.

The 1st wave shears out and weakens considerably leaving the trailing energy at 500mb room for development.  On top of that, the road block downstream allows this energy to slow and dig/phase, resulting into a stronger storm.  Trends in the GFS is NW and I'd rather be NW than in the bullseye this far out.  Should be interesting tracking this system.  

[Craig-OmahaWX]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010800/168/snku_acc.us_c.png

[hlcater]

The 1st wave shears out and weakens considerably leaving the trailing energy at 500mb room for development.  On top of that, the road block downstream allows this energy to slow and dig/phase, resulting into a stronger storm.  Trends in the GFS is NW and I'd rather be NW than in the bullseye this far out.  Should be interesting tracking this system.  

I still think we are too far NW though, I mean a trend of 400+ miles would be absolutely radical and even borderline unheard of. A shift to put ORD in the bullseye is much more realistic, and you guys deserve it over MI.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm still thinking blizzard warnings will be the headlines of choice for Central and Eastern NE. Amounts themselves are unimpressive, but we could see winds easily gusting to 50mph which would make whatever is on the ground blow uncontrollably. Drifts will be massive, even with forecasted 5-6" amounts.

 

If there's one thing OAX is not trash about, it's Winter headlines.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

0z DWD / ICON German model way south; takes a 1004 mb low from Dallas to south of Shreveport....destroys central Kansas up through Omaha...

The hell is that? Link?

[Tabitha]

That exists?!

 

No; its just a figment of my imagination...

 

*Rolls Her Eyes*

 

https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

[Tom]

I still think we are too far NW though, I mean a trend of 400+ miles would be absolutely radical and even borderline unheard of. A shift to put ORD in the bullseye is much more realistic, and you guys deserve it over MI.

I think there is an opportunity for E IA peeps to see snow out of this, but not necessarily hefty totals.  If the pattern blocks up some more across SE C.A., we may see both forces (the central plains and southern energy) phase a little better.

 

[Tabitha]

The hell is that? Link?

[NEJeremy]

What model are you seeing with 50 mph wind gusts?

NAM has 925s at 40 kts

GFS has 925s at 40 kts

So you’d have to get all of that mixing down to the surface to get 45 mph winds. Could still meet blizzard criteria, but IMO I don’t think 50 mph wind gusts are going to be very possible especially with a weakening system too

 

 

I'm still thinking blizzard warnings will be the headlines of choice for Central and Eastern NE. Amounts themselves are unimpressive, but we could see winds easily gusting to 50mph which would make whatever is on the ground blow uncontrollably. Drifts will be massive, even with forecasted 5-6" amounts.

 

If there's one thing OAX is not trash about, it's Winter headlines.

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE not budging....

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

It did move a little S compared to it's run last night-- but pretty darn stubborn.

[Minny_Weather]

What model are you seeing with 50 mph wind gusts?

NAM has 925s at 40 kts

GFS has 925s at 40 kts

So you’d have to get all of that mixing down to the surface to get 45 mph winds. Could still meet blizzard criteria, but IMO I don’t think 50 mph wind gusts are going to be very possible especially with a weakening system too

 

 

 

I'm seeing 10m gusts at 40kt too. Which equals ~46mph, and maybe a tick up to 50 could be possible. That's what I meant.

[Madtown]

Germans love Wisco!

[Money]

Germans love Wisco!

Who doesn’t?

[Grizzcoat]

Who doesn’t?

The Vikings!!!

[Minny_Weather]

Who doesn’t?

Me.

[Snowlover76]

Me.

same.  Badger fans are pretty close to Colorado fans in overall annoyance 

[jcwxguy]

1-2 for oma/lnk euro

[Money]

Secondary looks solid for IN/MI

 

Looks similar to 12z

[Jaycee]

1-2 for oma/lnk euro

 

Friggin hate the EURO. Never looks good for us.

[Hoosier]

Secondary looks solid for IN/MI

 

Looks similar to 12z

It is a huge hit in those areas. About 2" of qpf as snow in MI.

[Hawkeye]

This winter's Michigan jackpot zone could win again.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Ha!  That dry wedge of literally no snow looks like Ma Nature giving most of the region the bird!!!!  Epic failure if it verifies. Even  MSP airport would likely get the shaft!! Seems to be the case this year. The OMA and LNK posters will likely have to be put on suicide watch if it happens. The more the merrier!!!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

D**n that was a bsd euro lol. The GEFS snow mean did move south though. This is proving to be one crazy storm to track

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gfs weakened with snow totals everywhere, but still has the heaviest in our area. Looks like 5 to 6 with this run. Have a lot going through my mind about this dtorm right now...will it miss just west and clobber central neb? Will it move east over us but weaken more? Will the second liw mess around with it? So many questions to ask 3 days until the event.

[Grizzcoat]

Didn't weaken here C.IA- moved Slightly SE. But I don't trust it. And I think this is going to come down to the last minute 

[clintbeed1993]

NWS Hastings is only going with 2 to 4 inches for Central Nebraska.  Seems a bit conservative.  Weak sauce forecast.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX going with 2-4” on Wed evening with heavy snow and gusts to 30mph, then snow thru noon on Thursday with temps falling to 6F. Let’s see how this first wave shakes out.

[hlcater]

Michigan doesn’t deserve any more snow, let someone else have some for god sakes.

[Tom]

I would say, nearly 75% of the 51 EPS members have a big juicy cutter for the lower lakes/OV.  If 12z guidance continues this threat, I'll start a separate thread.