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1/12 - 1/13 GL's/OV Potential Major Winter Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:05 AM

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Folks, who said it would be easy???  Here we are, inside 4 days and the model mayhem continues as a very complicated set of parameters are in the works.  There is the potential of a major storm system riding up the OV/Apps sometime late this week into the weekend.  Where this system tracks is still up in the air.  Question is, who will cash in on some snow???

 

There will also be a LES potential for WI/IL members during this period to keep things more interesting.

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

 



#2
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:08 AM

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12z Ukie...

 

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif



#3
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:10 AM

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Don't have access but hearing at hr72 UKMET is west of Euro

Ukie certainly trended stronger and better phased compared to its 00z run...

 

00z...looks about 3mb weaker last night...

 

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif



#4
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:16 AM

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:D Can only smile at the developments so far..per IWX's afd they see some of the GFS's errors

 

Pretty muted read with the lack of consensus tho..

 

Focus then shifts to strong southern stream wave that will eject
towards the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Models have generally stayed
in their camps of the past couple days with GFS quicker and
further east with SFC low and EC/GEM/UKMET all leaning towards
slower/stronger and further NW solution. Interesting note on 700
mb low on the GFS is depicted much further west than sfc
reflection (over E Ohio Sat AM). Suspect with time the GFS will
come into line with other models.
So what does this all mean for
the area in terms of snow? Consensus of several offices is growing
concern for accumulating snowfall starting later Friday and
especially Fri Ngt into Sat. Timing of colder air wrapping in,
deep gulf moisture and potential favorable track somewhere over
the eastern Lakes all point towards several inches of snow
occurring in many areas. Low confidence remains with regards to
placement of heaviest snowfall and exactly how much. Needless to
say, impacts are going to be felt into the start of the weekend
for many areas, whether it be snow and wind, of what may be
another sig push of arctic air with highs in the teens and sub
zero lows (wind chills) all in play.


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#5
gosaints

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:16 AM

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gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png



#6
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:25 AM

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gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

 

I'll take that for an ensemble run!  


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#7
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:26 AM

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12z GEFS holding on to the easterly track...

 

 

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#8
Niko

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:26 AM

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Per NOAA:

 

Position of the tight low level baroclinic zone remains in question,
and the 00z Euro remains the most aggressive of the solutions, with
the ideal surface low track near Pittsburgh Pennsylvania.
Prolonged
and heavy deformation snow Friday evening into Saturday,
with ideal
850 mb temps lowering into the mid negative teens.



#9
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:26 AM

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From a LOT met on the 09 0z EC

 

 

 

Quite a Euro run, wow. Icing concerns Thursday night/Friday morning in southeast half of my CWA to a blizzard/near blizzard later Friday into Saturday for the same areas. High impact storm for a lot of people and keeps us in the tracking game in northern Illinois. 

For my own perspective as a snow lover, need this to come back farther west even. This is giving off vibes of 2/24/16 and I want no part of that lol. 

  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#10
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:28 AM

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Hard not to believe the GEFS as they have been pretty stead fast, but then again, you had a large portion of the EPS members sticking to a NW track along the OV.



#11
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:29 AM

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12z GEFS holding on to the easterly track...

 

Still manages a storm over my way, but I'd call that the "low bar" end of the spectrum tbh.

 

CPC - finally we make their map, but they have yet to decide what's snow and what's other..

 

Attached File  20180108_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png   444.22KB   0 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#12
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:31 AM

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Hard not to believe the GEFS as they have been pretty stead fast, but then again, you had a large portion of the EPS members sticking to a NW track along the OV.

 

Agreed, and something in the middle is still in play tbh. This is like the narrowing of the cone on a strong 'caine 


  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#13
Niko

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:32 AM

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Models should come upon agreements by tomorrow afternoon, hopefully. Euro, being the most aggressive one is the one to trust I think. I believe so because it has been most reliable all Winter season thus far. Precipitation in percentage have my area at 100% already for Friday. I am expecting more changes. This storm is carrying a lot of winds. My winds are calling for 35-45mph Friday night sustain. Dang!


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#14
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:35 AM

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Hard not to believe the GEFS as they have been pretty stead fast, but then again, you had a large portion of the EPS members sticking to a NW track along the OV.

 

Almost all the Euro ensemble members including the control are lock step with the op. Amazing consensus there.

 

I like the sounds of that..


  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#15
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:36 AM

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Models should come upon agreements by tomorrow afternoon, hopefully. Euro, being the most aggressive one is the one to trust I think. I believe so because it has been most reliable all Winter season thus far. Precipitation in percentage have my area at 100% already for Friday. I am expecting more changes. This storm is carrying a lot of winds. My winds are calling for 35-45mph Friday night sustain. Dang!

 

Where are you seeing those? NOAA or other?


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#16
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:38 AM

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I like the sounds of that..

This...and the thought comes to mind of the seasonal trends with southern waves becoming stronger as we get closer since Oct have me more intrigued.


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#17
Niko

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:41 AM

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Where are you seeing those? NOAA or other?

Its TWC only.....but, they constantly change their input every so often. In a hour, it will say something different.



#18
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:43 AM

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This...and the thought comes to mind of the seasonal trends with southern waves becoming stronger as we get closer since Oct have me more intrigued.

 

SOME 09-0z EPS members like yby as well.. ;)

 

Attached File  20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e2-26.jpg   295.87KB   4 downloads

 

Attached File  20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e27-51.jpg   295.49KB   2 downloads


  • Niko likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#19
Hawkeye

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:48 AM

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UK has come pretty far nw the last couple runs... now lifts the snow as far nw as Chicago and looks very close to the 00z Euro.


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season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#20
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:50 AM

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SOME 09-0z EPS members like yby as well.. ;)
 
attachicon.gif20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e2-26.jpg
 
attachicon.gif20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e27-51.jpg


E2 and E25 score a coup please.
  • jaster220 likes this

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.8"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#21
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:51 AM

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Great, my internet service just crapped out and a technician is out trying to fix the outage. Perfect timing, just in time for the Euro. Won’t be posting maps.

#22
Niko

Posted 09 January 2018 - 09:51 AM

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Dang....smoked!

 

E-20 shows 2ft+. :lol:


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#23
bud2380

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:08 AM

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3 of the 51 members even clip my back yard LOL.  It's gonna happen.  



#24
gosaints

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:18 AM

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EURO looks stronger than the GFS but the track looks similar....



#25
bud2380

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:18 AM

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Euro looks further east this run



#26
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:18 AM

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GFS FTW??? 12z Euro shifting back east Bigly, even more then yesterday’s 12z run...INDY to CLE special this run...clips Detroit

#27
Tom

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:24 AM

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Niko’s the winner on this run...Jaster riding the edge...LES over in NE IL looks very solid but we know how that works...

#28
Hawkeye

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:28 AM

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All we have to do is invert the colors and eastern Iowa would be in business.  The euro even has significant snowfall down into the deep south again.

 

Attached File  euro_snow_010912.png   171.04KB   0 downloads


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season snowfall: 10.8"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#29
St Paul Storm

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Just wanted to pop over to this thread and see how things are looking. Looks like the Euro wasn’t all that great. Mood isn’t much better in the other storm thread. Good luck with wave 2. Wave 1 turning into another swing and a miss. Someone pull out a winner here.
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#30
Tony

Posted 09 January 2018 - 10:57 AM

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A little eye candy from the UK now the farthest west model. This is model craziness!



#31
indianajohn

Posted 09 January 2018 - 11:24 AM

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Out of all the storms for GEFS to beat out EURO this year......LMAO Still a few days away but EURO shifting east today really sucks!!!



#32
Niko

Posted 09 January 2018 - 11:30 AM

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Niko’s the winner on this run...Jaster riding the edge...LES over in NE IL looks very solid but we know how that works...

Yup..looks great for me, but still way too early to be in the sweet spot. Id rather be off now and be in the bullseye near gametime.... ;)

 

Dont worry Jaster...still early for ya, even you Tom.

 

Real busy at the office today..cant post too much.



#33
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 11:47 AM

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Niko’s the winner on this run...Jaster riding the edge...LES over in NE IL looks very solid but we know how that works...

 

So much for my concerns it'd go NW of me. Maybe not a bad position from this range..still a lot of sampling to go that could bounce it back my way a tad. I prefer the windy side, not the slop side tbh..


  • Tom likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#34
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 11:49 AM

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Yup..looks great for me, but still way too early to be in the sweet spot. Id rather be off now and be in the bullseye near gametime.... ;)

 

Dont worry Jaster...still early for ya, even you Tom.

 

Real busy at the office today..cant post too much.

 

Thanks Mr. 2017-18 Jackpot for that encouragement.. :P


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#35
gosaints

Posted 09 January 2018 - 12:14 PM

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5a551b54bc12d_EPS1.thumb.png.d1f2c9e0a6f

 

5a551b6ba9972_EPS2.thumb.png.773e348197a



#36
Niko

Posted 09 January 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Thanks Mr. 2017-18 Jackpot for that encouragement.. :P

:D

 

Per NOAA:

Dry weather expected for Sunday and most of Monday before a
potential clipper drops through late Monday, bringing another chance
for accumulating snowfall.

 

:o Another potent Clippa coming!?!?!? :ph34r: :blink:



#37
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 12:26 PM

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5a551b54bc12d_EPS1.thumb.png.d1f2c9e0a6f

 

5a551b6ba9972_EPS2.thumb.png.773e348197a

 

Yep, 12z EPS was a decided shift SE

 

From an Amwx Met (or student, Idk)

 

Surprised to see the EPS shifting so much run to run.  There are 3 shortwaves involved which may be contributing.


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#38
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 01:41 PM

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Well, looks like Euro FAIL for mby..LOL this was fun for like 12 hrs. My original fears back in autumn that the OHV just SE of me would be ground zero for the real action is coming to fruition. Great call, but one I hated to make. GFS gives me token flakes as the CF swings thru but shafts me completely with the defo shield. GEM gives me mix with the CF and then a "tease graze" with the defo-band. I'd take the GEM even if it's only two hrs of pixie-rippage lol. We had some storms like that back in the colder 80's and even '02-03. Detroit usually made out with WSWarning for 6-ish in both scenarios (city on south). Doubt the 0z Euro stays the course, or even as far west as the 12z. SLP just doesn't get strong enough to push NW like a GHD-1 or ofc the merge-bomb kinda deal. Congrats OH and other snow-starved cornstalkers in Indiana & far SE Mich


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#39
Hoosier

Posted 09 January 2018 - 02:04 PM

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Well, looks like Euro FAIL for mby..LOL this was fun for like 12 hrs. My original fears back in autumn that the OHV just SE of me would be ground zero for the real action is coming to fruition. Great call, but one I hated to make. GFS gives me token flakes as the CF swings thru but shafts me completely with the defo shield. GEM gives me mix with the CF and then a "tease graze" with the defo-band. I'd take the GEM even if it's only two hrs of pixie-rippage lol. We had some storms like that back in the colder 80's and even '02-03. Detroit usually made out with WSWarning for 6-ish in both scenarios (city on south). Doubt the 0z Euro stays the course, or even as far west as the 12z. SLP just doesn't get strong enough to push NW like a GHD-1 or ofc the merge-bomb kinda deal. Congrats OH and other snow-starved cornstalkers in Indiana & far SE Mich


If I were you I wouldn't bail unless the Euro stays east for a couple more cycles.

#40
SE Wisconsin

Posted 09 January 2018 - 02:05 PM

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MKX AFD for Friday night and Saturday

 

"...a persistent northeast flow sets up, setting the stage for a lake snow event over
southeast Wisconsin. GFS forecast soundings show the initial inversion rising, as the

low levels moisten. Also mid levels also moisten with the mainupper trough overhead.

AS a result, expect the lake snow to provide several inches of snow. Will have to keep

an eye on this for any eventual advisories. Temperatures will remain very cold."

 

This seems like a new and interesting development. 

Winds are also forecast to be very strong at 20-30mph from the NE during this time.

 

The plot thickens!


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#41
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 02:12 PM

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If I were you I wouldn't bail unless the Euro stays east for a couple more cycles.

 

I appreciate your opinion and optimism. A NW trend within the d3-d1 would be nice if only I didn't have that prior intuition about those IN peach pits, lol


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#42
WBadgersW

Posted 09 January 2018 - 02:49 PM

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MKX AFD for Friday night and Saturday

"...a persistent northeast flow sets up, setting the stage for a lake snow event over
southeast Wisconsin. GFS forecast soundings show the initial inversion rising, as the
low levels moisten. Also mid levels also moisten with the mainupper trough overhead.
AS a result, expect the lake snow to provide several inches of snow. Will have to keep
an eye on this for any eventual advisories. Temperatures will remain very cold."

This seems like a new and interesting development.
Winds are also forecast to be very strong at 20-30mph from the NE during this time.

The plot thickens!


Hopefully they're right. I'm not expecting much though.

#43
SE Wisconsin

Posted 09 January 2018 - 03:46 PM

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LE is always hard to forecast precisely.  But the way this winter is going so far, it may be our best shot at a decent snowfall.  Remember, our largest snow last season in SE WI and NE IL was a lake effect event in mid-March.



#44
JSMY

Posted 09 January 2018 - 06:26 PM

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Where did everyone go??? There are novice weather watchers learning from you guys! Been reading for years in SEMI! Thanks so much for all the conversation!

#45
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 06:28 PM

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fwiw, 21z SREF looked pretty amped. Likes 25% risk of 12+ for Marshall

Attached File  srefUS_prec_snow12_084.gif   16.57KB   0 downloads
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#46
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 06:33 PM

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Where did everyone go??? There are novice weather watchers learning from you guys! Been reading for years in SEMI! Thanks so much for all the conversation!


Neb peeps are focused on their storm, Tom said his internet is down, I'm lomping along with a lame Android tablet..

You in SEMI look to have the best shot as Michigan goes. Today's runs since the Euro were much less favorable back west of you. That may trend west again tho, lol, the way these models are behaving!
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#47
Niko

Posted 09 January 2018 - 06:39 PM

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Not betting on anything yet. Way too soon to be a lock. Looks very good for my area now, but, changes can still happen. This storm has some real strong winds to content with. Whoever gets under these great bands, then, look-out. :ph34r:


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#48
chances14

Posted 09 January 2018 - 06:41 PM

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nam is further east this run.

 

precip doesn't even make it into semi

 

Yc2qTrr.png



#49
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 07:06 PM

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NAM at this range may be suffering convective feedback issues. Then again, might just be taking today's trend to the extreme.

Need some of those 990's GEFS members to verify, lol

Looks like our last hope is last-minute amping of the SLP

These 2-pulse set-up (Plains 1st) never seem to work out for SMI. I can't remember one that did. Back in late 80's there was a Gulf Low, looked like it'd ride a front NNE and bury SEMI good. TWC was already talking snow emergency for Detroit, yada-yada-yada. Damned thing ended up hugging the EC and NH got buried instead. Different era, same ole story, lol

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#50
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 07:14 PM

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nam is further east this run.
 
precip doesn't even make it into semi
 
Yc2qTrr.png


Trajectories of swaths parallel each other - makes most sense when you really think about it..

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 34.7"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 10.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."