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1/12 - 1/13 GL's/OV Potential Major Winter Storm


Tom

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Folks, who said it would be easy???  Here we are, inside 4 days and the model mayhem continues as a very complicated set of parameters are in the works.  There is the potential of a major storm system riding up the OV/Apps sometime late this week into the weekend.  Where this system tracks is still up in the air.  Question is, who will cash in on some snow???

 

There will also be a LES potential for WI/IL members during this period to keep things more interesting.

 

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

 

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Don't have access but hearing at hr72 UKMET is west of Euro

Ukie certainly trended stronger and better phased compared to its 00z run...

 

00z...looks about 3mb weaker last night...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

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:D Can only smile at the developments so far..per IWX's afd they see some of the GFS's errors

 

Pretty muted read with the lack of consensus tho..

 

Focus then shifts to strong southern stream wave that will eject
towards the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Models have generally stayed
in their camps of the past couple days with GFS quicker and
further east with SFC low and EC/GEM/UKMET all leaning towards
slower/stronger and further NW solution. Interesting note on 700
mb low on the GFS is depicted much further west than sfc
reflection (over E Ohio Sat AM). Suspect with time the GFS will
come into line with other models.
So what does this all mean for
the area in terms of snow? Consensus of several offices is growing
concern for accumulating snowfall starting later Friday and
especially Fri Ngt into Sat. Timing of colder air wrapping in,
deep gulf moisture and potential favorable track somewhere over
the eastern Lakes all point towards several inches of snow
occurring in many areas. Low confidence remains with regards to
placement of heaviest snowfall and exactly how much. Needless to
say, impacts are going to be felt into the start of the weekend
for many areas, whether it be snow and wind, of what may be
another sig push of arctic air with highs in the teens and sub
zero lows (wind chills) all in play.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

 

I'll take that for an ensemble run!  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Per NOAA:

 

Position of the tight low level baroclinic zone remains in question,
and the 00z Euro remains the most aggressive of the solutions, with
the ideal surface low track near Pittsburgh Pennsylvania.
Prolonged
and heavy deformation snow Friday evening into Saturday,
with ideal
850 mb temps lowering into the mid negative teens.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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From a LOT met on the 09 0z EC

 

 

 

Quite a Euro run, wow. Icing concerns Thursday night/Friday morning in southeast half of my CWA to a blizzard/near blizzard later Friday into Saturday for the same areas. High impact storm for a lot of people and keeps us in the tracking game in northern Illinois. 

For my own perspective as a snow lover, need this to come back farther west even. This is giving off vibes of 2/24/16 and I want no part of that lol. 
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GEFS holding on to the easterly track...

 

Still manages a storm over my way, but I'd call that the "low bar" end of the spectrum tbh.

 

CPC - finally we make their map, but they have yet to decide what's snow and what's other..

 

20180108_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hard not to believe the GEFS as they have been pretty stead fast, but then again, you had a large portion of the EPS members sticking to a NW track along the OV.

 

Agreed, and something in the middle is still in play tbh. This is like the narrowing of the cone on a strong 'caine 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Models should come upon agreements by tomorrow afternoon, hopefully. Euro, being the most aggressive one is the one to trust I think. I believe so because it has been most reliable all Winter season thus far. Precipitation in percentage have my area at 100% already for Friday. I am expecting more changes. This storm is carrying a lot of winds. My winds are calling for 35-45mph Friday night sustain. Dang!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hard not to believe the GEFS as they have been pretty stead fast, but then again, you had a large portion of the EPS members sticking to a NW track along the OV.

 

Almost all the Euro ensemble members including the control are lock step with the op. Amazing consensus there.

 

I like the sounds of that..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Models should come upon agreements by tomorrow afternoon, hopefully. Euro, being the most aggressive one is the one to trust I think. I believe so because it has been most reliable all Winter season thus far. Precipitation in percentage have my area at 100% already for Friday. I am expecting more changes. This storm is carrying a lot of winds. My winds are calling for 35-45mph Friday night sustain. Dang!

 

Where are you seeing those? NOAA or other?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Where are you seeing those? NOAA or other?

Its TWC only.....but, they constantly change their input every so often. In a hour, it will say something different.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This...and the thought comes to mind of the seasonal trends with southern waves becoming stronger as we get closer since Oct have me more intrigued.

 

SOME 09-0z EPS members like yby as well.. ;)

 

20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e2-26.jpg

 

20180109 0z 132hr EPS snow panel 10to1 e27-51.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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UK has come pretty far nw the last couple runs... now lifts the snow as far nw as Chicago and looks very close to the 00z Euro.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Dang....smoked!

 

E-20 shows 2ft+. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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All we have to do is invert the colors and eastern Iowa would be in business.  The euro even has significant snowfall down into the deep south again.

 

 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Niko’s the winner on this run...Jaster riding the edge...LES over in NE IL looks very solid but we know how that works...

Yup..looks great for me, but still way too early to be in the sweet spot. Id rather be off now and be in the bullseye near gametime.... ;)

 

Dont worry Jaster...still early for ya, even you Tom.

 

Real busy at the office today..cant post too much.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Niko’s the winner on this run...Jaster riding the edge...LES over in NE IL looks very solid but we know how that works...

 

So much for my concerns it'd go NW of me. Maybe not a bad position from this range..still a lot of sampling to go that could bounce it back my way a tad. I prefer the windy side, not the slop side tbh..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yup..looks great for me, but still way too early to be in the sweet spot. Id rather be off now and be in the bullseye near gametime.... ;)

 

Dont worry Jaster...still early for ya, even you Tom.

 

Real busy at the office today..cant post too much.

 

Thanks Mr. 2017-18 Jackpot for that encouragement.. :P

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thanks Mr. 2017-18 Jackpot for that encouragement.. :P

:D

 

Per NOAA:

Dry weather expected for Sunday and most of Monday before a

potential clipper drops through late Monday, bringing another chance

for accumulating snowfall.

 

:o Another potent Clippa coming!?!?!? :ph34r: :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5a551b54bc12d_EPS1.thumb.png.d1f2c9e0a6f

 

5a551b6ba9972_EPS2.thumb.png.773e348197a

 

Yep, 12z EPS was a decided shift SE

 

From an Amwx Met (or student, Idk)

 

Surprised to see the EPS shifting so much run to run.  There are 3 shortwaves involved which may be contributing.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, looks like Euro FAIL for mby..LOL this was fun for like 12 hrs. My original fears back in autumn that the OHV just SE of me would be ground zero for the real action is coming to fruition. Great call, but one I hated to make. GFS gives me token flakes as the CF swings thru but shafts me completely with the defo shield. GEM gives me mix with the CF and then a "tease graze" with the defo-band. I'd take the GEM even if it's only two hrs of pixie-rippage lol. We had some storms like that back in the colder 80's and even '02-03. Detroit usually made out with WSWarning for 6-ish in both scenarios (city on south). Doubt the 0z Euro stays the course, or even as far west as the 12z. SLP just doesn't get strong enough to push NW like a GHD-1 or ofc the merge-bomb kinda deal. Congrats OH and other snow-starved cornstalkers in Indiana & far SE Mich

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, looks like Euro FAIL for mby..LOL this was fun for like 12 hrs. My original fears back in autumn that the OHV just SE of me would be ground zero for the real action is coming to fruition. Great call, but one I hated to make. GFS gives me token flakes as the CF swings thru but shafts me completely with the defo shield. GEM gives me mix with the CF and then a "tease graze" with the defo-band. I'd take the GEM even if it's only two hrs of pixie-rippage lol. We had some storms like that back in the colder 80's and even '02-03. Detroit usually made out with WSWarning for 6-ish in both scenarios (city on south). Doubt the 0z Euro stays the course, or even as far west as the 12z. SLP just doesn't get strong enough to push NW like a GHD-1 or ofc the merge-bomb kinda deal. Congrats OH and other snow-starved cornstalkers in Indiana & far SE Mich

If I were you I wouldn't bail unless the Euro stays east for a couple more cycles.

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MKX AFD for Friday night and Saturday

 

"...a persistent northeast flow sets up, setting the stage for a lake snow event over
southeast Wisconsin. GFS forecast soundings show the initial inversion rising, as the

low levels moisten. Also mid levels also moisten with the mainupper trough overhead.

AS a result, expect the lake snow to provide several inches of snow. Will have to keep

an eye on this for any eventual advisories. Temperatures will remain very cold."

 

This seems like a new and interesting development. 

Winds are also forecast to be very strong at 20-30mph from the NE during this time.

 

The plot thickens!

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