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1/12 - 1/13 GL's/OV Potential Major Winter Storm

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#51
jaster220

Posted 09 January 2018 - 07:17 PM

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Hate to say it, but synoptically we live n die with Chicago more than not. Us getting shlammered and them nothing just goes against that grain!

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#52
gosaints

Posted 09 January 2018 - 07:54 PM

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GFS is wagons east. I hope the Euro is West. Let the battle go a few more cycles.

#53
chances14

Posted 09 January 2018 - 07:56 PM

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gfs also going east. blah

 

n2tAjOQ.png



#54
chances14

Posted 09 January 2018 - 08:06 PM

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gem is also east. not liking the trends tonight

 

gYtdWpr.png



#55
Tom

Posted 10 January 2018 - 03:49 AM

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Overnight 00z Euro caves to the GFS and follows the easterly track...impressive win...

 

DTK1wlAVwAcPRca.jpg



#56
Tony

Posted 10 January 2018 - 06:18 AM

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LES does not look impressive so onto the next possible fail which will be Sunday. I suspect this will get weaker as time goes on and most likely turn into a couple flakes by the time it gets here. Just not our winter and no reason and no signal to believe it will change



#57
Tom

Posted 10 January 2018 - 06:27 AM

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LES does not look impressive so onto the next possible fail which will be Sunday. I suspect this will get weaker as time goes on and most likely turn into a couple flakes by the time it gets here. Just not our winter and no reason and no signal to believe it will change

I just saw the RPM model and it looked good for NE IL in terms of LES...I'm not buying into it though bc these events are always tough to forecast...



#58
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 06:45 AM

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Might be LOL worthy today, but as said by others, we've had virtually ZERO test-case examples of how the current model upgrades are handling something as potent and unique as this strong neg-tilted Gulf Low. Idk what to think, lol. Not sure what CPC was smoking Tues pm when they issued their outlook after EVERY model shifted well east all morning up to that point, but per their map mby is shown very close to the rare tri-fecta of conditions I drool over..

 

Attached File  20180109_CPC_hazards_d3_7.PNG   914.92KB   0 downloads

 

Anyways, like most gov agencies, they prolly just go thru their daily motions and had this all drawn up in the morning and didn't bother revising it. Sure today's will be like "what storm potential over MI??" 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#59
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 06:46 AM

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I just saw the RPM model and it looked good for NE IL in terms of LES...I'm not buying into it though bc these events are always tough to forecast...

 

Good luck over there with the LEffect! 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#60
Tom

Posted 10 January 2018 - 06:53 AM

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Good luck over there with the LEffect! 

Thanks, but I think this will end up being some "mood" flakes which I have already seen plenty of times since my first "mood" LES wayyy back in November...



#61
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Thanks, but I think this will end up being some "mood" flakes which I have already seen plenty of times since my first "mood" LES wayyy back in November...

 

Weird how this winter has doubled-down on last winter's snooze-fest for ORD! I've seen that sometimes good winters come in pairs, but apparently the opposite can play out as well. I'm thankful for this past December going a better route than last year tho, what with the Christmas timed event - that's gonna really help the grade if we go the rest of the way not able to buy a S Stream warning snow. Not thrilled about the extended cold into Spring tbh, not with cold NW flow dominated outcome. If I had the means, I'd be planning and focusing on a late winter get-away to the Bahamas or something. Usually that's a great distraction when nature's being Grinchy with the pattern  :lol:  


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#62
Tom

Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:00 AM

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Weird how this winter has doubled-down on last winter's snooze-fest for ORD! I've seen that sometimes good winters come in pairs, but apparently the opposite can play out as well. I'm thankful for this past December going a better route than last year tho, what with the Christmas timed event - that's gonna really help the grade if we go the rest of the way not able to buy a S Stream warning snow. Not thrilled about the extended cold into Spring tbh, not with cold NW flow dominated outcome. If I had the means, I'd be planning and focusing on a late winter get-away to the Bahamas or something. Usually that's a great distraction when nature's being Grinchy with the pattern :lol:


Believe me, I’m already thinking about warm weather thoughts...before that though, I’d like to see an impactful strong southern wave hit us by March.

#63
indianajohn

Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:07 AM

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I assume we are throwing in the towel that this will shift back west?? LMAO



#64
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:06 AM

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I assume we are throwing in the towel that this will shift back west?? LMAO

 

To the extent that mby over to your's and/or Tom's gets hit - a resounding YES. No way it comes back this far west. Niko can hold out hope tho, and I would if I was him.

 

EDIT: Biggest model Fart by any modern-era model I've been a victim of and the Euro of all the one's to do it  :rolleyes:


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#65
Hoosier

Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:10 AM

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I just saw the RPM model and it looked good for NE IL in terms of LES...I'm not buying into it though bc these events are always tough to forecast...


I am liking the lake effect potential where I am. May have pretty good duration, starting as early as Friday afternoon before swinging west (maybe out of my area) but then coming back east and peaking on Saturday. Inversion heights aren't the greatest but despite that, I think several inches is on the table here/close by.
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#66
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:49 AM

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Believe me, I’m already thinking about warm weather thoughts...before that though, I’d like to see an impactful strong southern wave hit us by March.

 

Forgive me if I have my doubts after seeing this potential trend the way it has. Perhaps in Nino fashion, we finally get one on the threshold of spring..


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#67
Niko

Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:53 AM

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@ Jaster

 

W the arctic blast coming this weekend, you stand a great chance of getting some Lake Effect for YBY.



#68
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:53 AM

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I am liking the lake effect potential where I am. May have pretty good duration, starting as early as Friday afternoon before swinging west (maybe out of my area) but then coming back east and peaking on Saturday. Inversion heights aren't the greatest but despite that, I think several inches is on the table here/close by.

 

Well, good luck then for you Hoosier. I'm still reeling from Euro whiplash via 2 feet to a whiff in a matter of hours. I thought the days of that stuff was over..(insert arrow-thru-head icon which we don't have) 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#69
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:54 AM

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@ Jaster

 

W the arctic blast coming this weekend, you stand a great chance of getting some Lake Effect for YBY.

 

Hope not, I'd like to get my lawn decorations put away. They should be released from the glacier by then.. ;)


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#70
Niko

Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:11 AM

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Per Accu-Weather:

 

Areas at greatest risk for receiving enough snow to shovel and plow after a period of ice will extend from northern Tennessee to southwestern Ontario.

The area includes much of Ohio and may reach the major cities of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Indianapolis.

However, a slight westward or eastward shift in the track of the storm and the progression of the cold air may cause the heavy snow areas to shift correspondingly.

 

All eyes for any changes in the models in the upcoming days.



#71
BLIZZARD09

Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:19 AM

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LES does not look impressive so onto the next possible fail which will be Sunday. I suspect this will get weaker as time goes on and most likely turn into a couple flakes by the time it gets here. Just not our winter and no reason and no signal to believe it will change

What is really frustrating is that is the third winter bust in a row for snow



#72
chances14

Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:19 AM

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euro is weaker and further east. this is turning into a non event



#73
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 11:08 AM

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What is really frustrating is that is the third winter bust in a row for snow

 

Yeah over your way. At least mby got that (1) Dec storm in Dec of '16 for a warned event. 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#74
jaster220

Posted 10 January 2018 - 11:10 AM

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euro is weaker and further east. this is turning into a non event

 

Euro blew chunks for SMI - some of the biggest ever blown by any model if you ask me 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#75
Hoosier

Posted 10 January 2018 - 11:31 AM

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Still keeping an eye on the backside changeover to ice/sleet/snow. Not talking big amounts but some of the hi-res guidance is a little more bullish with it.

Attached File  wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_48.png   208.78KB   0 downloads

Attached File  wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_ncus_48.png   206.08KB   0 downloads

#76
Hoosier

Posted 10 January 2018 - 11:35 AM

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Going to be a slap in the face when the front hits (this is probably closer to reality with warm sector temps compared to the cooler models)

Attached File  RAPMW_sfc_temp_021.png   165.28KB   1 downloads

#77
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 05:41 AM

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Going to be a slap in the face when the front hits (this is probably closer to reality with warm sector temps compared to the cooler models)

attachicon.gifRAPMW_sfc_temp_021.png

 

Shame that next to nothing will come from such a dramatic thermal boundary..oh what could've been in another era. 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#78
Tom

Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:13 AM

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WWA issued for a Flash Freeze....Yay...NOT!!!!  I haven't had the energy over the past couple days.  Anyhow, may make a run at a record high of 61F today!  Then, the bottom falls out and its looking like LES may be on the table here Friday night into Sat.  LOT had a good write up:

 

 

 

A long duration light to at times moderate lake effect snow
episode looks to unfold starting Friday afternoon and continuing
through Saturday afternoon before likely exiting mainly east of
the CWA Saturday evening.

 

 

 

For this forecast, leaned on the NAM/3km NAM Nest and GFS for
boundary layer winds and convergence depictions Friday evening
through Saturday. Models have shifted to more of a north-northeast
to north scenario, which favors Cook County and points south to
south- southwest pending band orientation, into northwest Indiana.
The snow will likely focus into above mentioned areas of
northeast Illinois and extreme northwest Indiana Friday evening
and overnight and then primarily northwest Indiana during the day
Saturday. Expect continued refinements into this overall thinking
on areas affected, with subtle changes in boundary layer winds and
convergence likely to produce changes on areas most impacted.
Given full fetch down the lake, the snow showers will be able to
spread farther inland than is typical, so do have high chance to
likely PoPs all the way down to portions of east central IL and
well south of the Kankakee River in Indiana.

Inversion heights will improve to 6000 to 7000 feet Friday night
and to 7000 to 8000 feet during Saturday, which is still less than
ideal. Compensating will be excellent boundary layer convergence
and good lift through the DGZ and the longer duration. It`s at
this point uncertain if a single band will develop or multi-band,
multi-cell setup. Directional shear through the DGZ will be low,
but there will be fairly strong winds through the layer.

Accumulations are likely with this lake effect episode. However,
limiting factors and questions on specific areas affected and
duration of effects, as is typical with lake effect, result in
lower confidence in preliminary forecast amounts. The preliminary
snowfall forecast favors accumulations of 1 to 3" from Chicago
southward to eastern Kankakee County and 2 to 4" in Lake and
Porter counties in Indiana, with 1 to 3" southward into Newton
and Jasper counties. Once again, expect changes and refinements to
this forecast as we get closer. The snow should shift focus mainly
east of Porter County by Saturday evening, but we`ll need to watch
for mesolow development that could slow eastward progress.

Strong northerly winds will be an issue throughout the lake effect
snow, particularly lakeside where lake effect convergence sets up,
with gusts up to 40 mph at times. This means that blowing snow of
the falling and already fallen snow could further reduce
visibility in areas that receive appreciable accumulations.
Something to keep in mind with respect to potential travel
impacts.


#79
Tony

Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:22 AM

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WWA issued for a Flash Freeze....Yay...NOT!!!!  I haven't had the energy over the past couple days.  Anyhow, may make a run at a record high of 61F today!  Then, the bottom falls out and its looking like LES may be on the table here Friday night into Sat.  LOT had a good write up:

Unfortunately that lake band will probably not affect us farther west of the city but it might give you a little snow Tom.



#80
Tom

Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:44 AM

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Unfortunately that lake band will probably not affect us farther west of the city but it might give you a little snow Tom.

Not betting on it, as we would need a better easterly component.  Would have been a better set up if the SLP was stronger to our south but that doesn't look like its happening.  These LES events are nowcast anyway so if anything that falls will be bonus IMO.



#81
Niko

Posted 11 January 2018 - 10:36 AM

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wrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.thumb.png.b429f732

 

Interesting, indeed! :huh: Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems a little further NW than yesterday.



#82
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 11:58 AM

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wrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.thumb.png.b429f732

 

Interesting, indeed! :huh: Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems a little further NW than yesterday.

 

It is, and it isn't. Or might not be. Aka, that could be deceiving a bit. The stuff on the NW side of the main swath may be showing as SN when in reality it'll be ZR or IP, not snow. Models don't always do the best job in sorting those out in a transitional scenario like this. Some could be lost to still warm ground as well. So, while this and the 12z NAM looked like winning, I'm still not counting on much until I see it falling. GFS shows snow, GEM has ice at 7 am Friday for example. I'm going to need the CF to slow down and give the weak-a$$ SLP time to pump some qpf up this way in order to get a plow-worthy accumulation. You're in a better spot to score tbh. Hopefully at least one of us salvage this teaser  :lol:  


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#83
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 12:00 PM

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12z 3km NAM for compare..

 

Attached File  20180111 12z 48hr NAM Snowfall.png   683.88KB   0 downloads

 

 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#84
Niko

Posted 11 January 2018 - 12:17 PM

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12z 3km NAM for compare..

 

attachicon.gif20180111 12z 48hr NAM Snowfall.png

Sweet! I think the models are having a betta handle of this today, now that the disturbance is onshore.



#85
Niko

Posted 11 January 2018 - 12:18 PM

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It is, and it isn't. Or might not be. Aka, that could be deceiving a bit. The stuff on the NW side of the main swath may be showing as SN when in reality it'll be ZR or IP, not snow. Models don't always do the best job in sorting those out in a transitional scenario like this. Some could be lost to still warm ground as well. So, while this and the 12z NAM looked like winning, I'm still not counting on much until I see it falling. GFS shows snow, GEM has ice at 7 am Friday for example. I'm going to need the CF to slow down and give the weak-a$$ SLP time to pump some qpf up this way in order to get a plow-worthy accumulation. You're in a better spot to score tbh. Hopefully at least one of us salvage this teaser  :lol:  

I agree.

 

You should bold well w LES this weekend. ;)



#86
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 12:21 PM

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Sweet! I think the models are having a betta handle of this today, now that the disturbance is onshore.

 

Sheesh this is KRAZY nuts..like back from the dead Zombie Storm! 

 

NAM12k trending amped with warning snow streak now for mby..this is some wacked sh*t  :lol:

 

Attached File  namconus_asnow_ncus_fh39_trend.gif   840.1KB   2 downloads


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#87
Niko

Posted 11 January 2018 - 12:30 PM

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Sheesh this is KRAZY nuts..like back from the dead Zombie! 

 

NAM12k trending amped with warning snow streak now for mby..this is some wacked sh*t  :lol:

 

attachicon.gifnamconus_asnow_ncus_fh39_trend.gif

6"+ for YBY buddy..... :lol: :o


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#88
Niko

Posted 11 January 2018 - 12:37 PM

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I wanna say that each run on the models is a mb stronger and a few miles further NW.



#89
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 12:42 PM

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I wanna say that each run on the models is a mb stronger and a few miles further NW.

 

Yeah, this ain't ovva! One of those down-to-the-wire systems that we've not had in some time. I'm no MET so this is over my head, but I've read enough AFD's to recognize that there's some room for more changes/positive results from these IWX words..

 

Adding to concerns, the 12Z NAM develops a bullseye of QPF over

our east-central CWA in response to the enhanced forcing in the
right entrance region of a strengthening 300MB Jet between 9-15Z,
which stretches over northern Lower Michigan/Ontario/Quebec. The
enhanced upper level divergence works to tilt our trough
negatively and contract (strengthen) the frontal zone across our
area.
Looking at a cross section through the frontal zone, we see
a brief period of decent instability/CSI. If it occurs, this will
favor the development of heavier bands of snow, which supports the
idea of the NAM`s increase in QPF (including the FWA area).
Overall, however the time the ingredients come together is pretty
short-lived, and don`t expect too much in the way of additional
ice accumulations beyond those forecasted at this point.
Furthermore, thinking it will largely be more snow/sleet than any
freezing rain at the times of greatest instability. In the end,
put 2-3" snow in the forecast for the eastern half of the advisory
given the potential.

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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#90
Niko

Posted 11 January 2018 - 12:50 PM

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Yeah, this ain't ovva! One of those down-to-the-wire systems that we've not had in some time. I'm no MET so this is over my head, but I've read enough AFD's to recognize that there's some room for more changes/positive results from these IWX words..

You betta believe it brotha! ;)

 

Very interesting paragraph.



#91
indianajohn

Posted 11 January 2018 - 01:00 PM

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Still holding out hope it jogs a few miles north.....would love to get in the action!!


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#92
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 01:19 PM

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Verbatim, 18z NAM wants to drop 7+ on Marshall. We'll see if it has a clue or not, lol

 

Attached File  20180111 18z 21hr NAM Snowfall.png   148.86KB   0 downloads

 

Btw, translates to about 4.5" depth, which prolly allows for mixing issues, etc..


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#93
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 01:20 PM

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Still holding out hope it jogs a few miles north.....would love to get in the action!!

 

Toss a dart..just as likely to be where the weenie band sets up, just as we've seen with part-1 today..good luck. 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#94
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 01:41 PM

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:o  :o  :lol: Canadien short-ranger ftw

 

Just let me see those rates once this winter..pls & thx

 

Attached File  20180111 12z 24hr HRDPS precip.png   224.11KB   1 downloads

 

 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#95
jaster220

Posted 11 January 2018 - 01:48 PM

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Even GFS trend wants to deliver 3.5" so trend's been a friend all of a sudden.

 

Attached File  gfs_asnow_ncus_fh24_trend.gif   805.14KB   1 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#96
Niko

Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:40 PM

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:o  :o  :lol: Canadien short-ranger ftw

 

Just let me see those rates once this winter..pls & thx

 

attachicon.gif20180111 12z 24hr HRDPS precip.png

WOW...looking good there Jaster. Hopefully, that darker blue slides my way. :D That has to be extrememly heavy snow.



#97
Niko

Posted 11 January 2018 - 06:42 PM

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Under a WWA for 2-4inches or more.



#98
Tom

Posted 11 January 2018 - 07:40 PM

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RPM model trying to paint a couple inches of LES in E Cook county Friday night and more so across NW IN...it'll be interesting watching this unfold and to see if a lake plume does in fact develop.  



#99
Tom

Posted 12 January 2018 - 03:47 AM

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Lake/Porter county in IN look like they are in a good spot to score a few inches from LES.  RPM model had the band meandering over that same area for a long time Sat morning.  Here is LOT's take:

 

 

 

This will
likely produce some light accumulating snow, especially near the
IL/IN state line where high-res guidance depict a longer residence
time for the band into tonight. A few inches of snow are likely
for those areas, depending on details of eventual evolution of the
LES band. Band is expected to drift east across Lake and Porter
Counties Saturday, eventually moving largely east of the cwa by
evening as low level flow weakens and backs more westerly.


#100
Tom

Posted 12 January 2018 - 05:21 AM

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What a dramatic flip in temps from last night.  Just took out the garbage and its friggin' cold!  Actually, I saw some LES flurries falling from the sky.  The ground is completely frozen solid.  Looking at the radar, Lake/DuPage/Cook county are getting some flurry/light snow action....albeit, very light, this is something we have to monitor as we get into the evening hours.