MLK Holiday Clipper

[Tom]

We haven't had many "spread the wealth" clippers this season.  Could this holiday clipper change that?  A rather interesting mid-winter clipper is poised to traverse the GL's region late Sunday into Monday laying down several inches of powda not only near the Lakes, but could also impact those out west in the Plains/Midwest.  Who's going to cash in???  Could the lake provide some extra juice and fluff up lakeside totals???  Let's discuss the possible outcomes...

 

 

[hlcater]

Given the N trend with many clippers as we close in on the event, I like portions of far NE IA and WI for best snows. Could still see something though. What is somewhat unique is how widespread the snow will be, although it will lack intensity.

[Tom]

Given the N trend with many clippers as we close in on the event, I like portions of far NE IA and WI for best snows. Could still see something though. What is somewhat unique is how widespread the snow will be, although it will lack intensity.

Ya, the 00z GFS went a touch north compared to its 12z run and somewhat similar to the 12z Euro.  It's interesting how much it slows down as it pivots across the GL's.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...looks better...covers a large portion of our subforum...I haven't seen a clipper like this in a long time.  Seems like it has a frontal snow feature out in the central Plains/MW.

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

NAM is pretty aggressive with these couple of systems. I'm game and ready to make up my losses. 

[clintbeed1993]

NAM is pretty aggressive with these couple of systems. I'm game and ready to make up my losses. 

 

Don't count on it.  This setup screams miss to the East.

[Minny_Weather]

It sucks that a clipper that will likely drop at most 4" in the hardest hit areas is this winter's version of share the wealth. Between Friday's and this one, though, I'm hoping that we'll be able to add onto today's snowfall and cover the grass. We need about another 1.5" for that.

[james1976]

It sucks that a clipper that will likely drop at most 4" in the hardest hit areas is this winter's version of share the wealth. Between Friday's and this one, though, I'm hoping that we'll be able to add onto today's snowfall and cover the grass. We need about another 1.5" for that.

I cant remember the last good wound up system ive had. Always seems to be a clipper or some weird open wave that i do well from.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Don't count on it.  This setup screams miss to the East.

EURO / CMC are SW of us which means it'll eventually trend a bit north and lay out over Omaha...im guessing...

[Tom]

06z GFS...

 

 

[bud2380]

Wisconsin does well on the models. They look to be in the sweet spot. It’s looking like 1-2” here. Although DVN is talking 2-4” for the northern part of their CWA. They even said may need a WInter Storm Watch if it trends stronger due to not only snow but very strong winds on the backside.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX is rather slap-happy about this, saying up to 2" with locally higher amounts are possible.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX going with 2-4” here. Looks like a decent call. W WI and E MN look to be in a good spot up this way. Only about .15” of qpf but that’ll be more than enough to get some nice totals. This is about as spread the wealth as we’ve seen in a while.

[Tom]

MPX going with 2-4” here. Looks like a decent call. W WI and E MN look to be in a good spot up this way. Only about .15” of qpf but that’ll be more than enough to get some nice totals. This is about as spread the wealth as we’ve seen in a while.

Same here...local mets going with an average of 2-4"...might score some extra snow "if" the lake band swings through on Tuesday....

[CentralNebWeather]

Latest RAP model is fairly aggressive for Central Nebraska.  That would be nice.  

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I'm gonna go ahead and use this thread for our entire clipper train we're getting.

[Tom]

Prob a bit aggressive but here's the Canadian...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018011200/120/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tabitha]

I'm sort of wondering; when perusing the climate record of the Chicagoland area; that O'Hare & Midway have a mean annual snowfall in the range of 37"; and yet over in Lake County, Indiana; Gary has a mean of just 24".  Naturally, one would think the further south and east one goes; the more LE snow one would catch off of the Lake Michigan...

[Minny_Weather]

Tonight's clipper crapping out before it hits us on the all of the models. Let's see how Sunday and Monday go. Hoping for enough from those to really prevent our snowpack from going away due to slightly above freezing temps Sunday.

[indianajohn]

LES affects the northeastern part of the state more the the northwest part. We rarely score big from LES events.

 

I'm sort of wondering; when perusing the climate record of the Chicagoland area; that O'Hare & Midway have a mean annual snowfall in the range of 37"; and yet over in Lake County, Indiana; Gary has a mean of just 24". Naturally, one would think the further south and east one goes; the more LE snow one would catch off of the Lake Michigan...

[Tabitha]

I'm sort of wondering; when perusing the climate record of the Chicagoland area; that O'Hare & Midway have a mean annual snowfall in the range of 37"; and yet over in Lake County, Indiana; Gary has a mean of just 24".  Naturally, one would think the further south and east one goes; the more LE snow one would catch off of the Lake Michigan...

 

Now just 57 miles east of Gary, South Bend has a mean of about 71 inches; so that would sort of imply that the lake effect bands tend to set up just to the east...I suppose.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XihLS-jA_Dg#t=02m05s

[Minny_Weather]

Between Sunday's and Mondays clippers, Euro actually gives me a solid 4-5". That would definitely be welcome with the cold coming in. Also, maybe a decent snowfall Sunday morning will prevent temps from going above freezing.

[westMJim]

LES affects the northeastern part of the state more the the northwest part. We rarely score big from LES events.

 

 

I am not sure where the readings are taken in the Gary, Indiana area but Gary is on the south end of Lake Michigan so for them to get a good lake effect set up there would have to be an almost due north wind and that is the least likely wind direction. However, that said when that set up occurs then they would do very well on most set ups. One limiting factor is that area is flat and without some hills there is less of a lift. Note South Bend that is east of Gary has a seasonal average of 65” Over here in Michigan some areas if the far eastern side of the state near Detroit also only average around 30” a season.

[St Paul Storm]

Between Sunday's and Mondays clippers, Euro actually gives me a solid 4-5". That would definitely be welcome with the cold coming in. Also, maybe a decent snowfall Sunday morning will prevent temps from going above freezing.

Yeah a nice fresh snowpack might do the trick. Temps here last night were only supposed to get down to -5F. I’m still at -13F right now, likely due to the ‘unexpected’ few inches we got yesterday.

[Tom]

12z NAM...it did show a convective look to its run today which could be a trend as we get closer to the event...

 

 

[Tom]

Yeah a nice fresh snowpack might do the trick. Temps here last night were only supposed to get down to -5F. I’m still at -13F right now, likely due to the ‘unexpected’ few inches we got yesterday.

When the cold comes, it has delivered this season...wouldn't ya say so??   

[Tabitha]

Now just 57 miles east of Gary, South Bend has a mean of about 71 inches; so that would sort of imply that the lake effect bands tend to set up just to the east...I suppose.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XihLS-jA_Dg#t=02m05s

 

I guess what one would take from all of this is that the climate is practically the all determining factor; and good patterns versus bad patterns are sort of secondary.  If a town is historically snowy, it will manage to snow there regardless of the pattern.  Likewise; if an area is historically not-snowy, it will manage to shoot itself in the foot with the most alarming regularity; even when the pattern seems eminently favorable...

[East Dubzz]

Oh yay, another 2” snowstorm. Can’t get enough of those this year.

[hlcater]

[WBadgersW]

Oh yay, another 2” snowstorm. Can’t get enough of those this year.

Hey, that would increase our snow totals by 40%.

[Minny_Weather]

Oh yay, another 2” snowstorm. Can’t get enough of those this year.

I'll take those off your hands.

[Tabitha]

Oh my, it is starting to snow here (lightly, if one looks hard enough)...with a temperature of 0 F.

 

Most of the snowflakes here are less than one trillionth of an inch wide; and thus one has to look *quite* hard to view them.

 

It would be nice to see a normal looking snowflake for once; but I suppose one has to pay extra for that.

 

I hope this one produces a "happy ending".

 

Most haven't...

[bud2380]

gfs

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011212/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Minny_Weather]

gfs

Can GFS have every clipper avoid us more?

[St Paul Storm]

When the cold comes, it has delivered this season...wouldn't ya say so??

 

The cold has delivered for sure. I’m actually a little surprised, given the lack of deep snowpack in the Midwest. Kinda makes you wonder how cold it would have gotten if we had ‘normal’ snowfall thus far.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS wants to give Central Nebraska more love again.  Seems to be a decent year for clippers in this part of the state. 

[gosaints]

The cold has delivered for sure. I’m actually a little surprised, given the lack of deep snowpack in the Midwest. Kinda makes you wonder how cold it would have gotten if we had ‘normal’ snowfall thus far.

As we know "Cold" does not equal especially in our locations.  This is the reason why I get perplexed when we get excited when we see a long range cold pattern.  It is not conducive to large storms.

[St Paul Storm]

As we know "Cold" does not equal especially in our locations.  This is the reason why I get perplexed when we get excited when we see a long range cold pattern.  It is not conducive to large storms.

For sure. If given the choice I’ll take warmer temps if it means a more active pattern. The second half of January might just provide that. I’ll sweat out thermals if it means a big dog is lurking nearby.

[indianajohn]

I am not sure where the readings are taken in the Gary, Indiana area but Gary is on the south end of Lake Michigan so for them to get a good lake effect set up there would have to be an almost due north wind and that is the least likely wind direction. However, that said when that set up occurs then they would do very well on most set ups. One limiting factor is that area is flat and without some hills there is less of a lift. Note South Bend that is east of Gary has a seasonal average of 65” Over here in Michigan some areas if the far eastern side of the state near Detroit also only average around 30” a season.

yes we usually score a big LES event after a big storm. LES plumes are usually only a few miles wide unless you are due east of the lake in areas like St Joes New Buffalo and places north of there. And of course Buffalo NY and those areas. If I remember correctly Buffalo a few years back where it had a week long LES setup where it dumped 8 feet of snow in 7 days.... now that's crazy!!! I have driven through sunny skies and all of a sudden zero visibility to sunny skies in a matter of minutes... LES is actually fascinating!!

[bud2380]

Canadian QPF totals

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018011212/090/qpf_048h.us_mw.png

 

This includes other storms.  

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018011212/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png