MLK Holiday Clipper

[bud2380]

The Ukie is more robust.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

[BrianJK]

All I ask when tracking this is that nobody uses the term “overperform” or get caught up on high ratios.

[bud2380]

All I ask when tracking this is that nobody uses the term “overperform” or get caught up on high ratios.

 

Actually ratios will likely be quite high, much like the 12/29 storm that brought 6" to my back yard.  NWS is pointing towards 20:1.  

[Stacsh]

Impressive looking clipper.

 

I went from 20" inch snow pack a week and half ago to bare ground today.  Got nothing from current storm.  Thankfully being near lake michigan we shall build that right back up Monday.  Hopefully.   

[Minny_Weather]

The only thing that MIGHT bog down ratios are upper level winds. Otherwise, it looks like ratios shouldn't be too bad.

[Hoosier]

I'm sort of wondering; when perusing the climate record of the Chicagoland area; that O'Hare & Midway have a mean annual snowfall in the range of 37"; and yet over in Lake County, Indiana; Gary has a mean of just 24". Naturally, one would think the further south and east one goes; the more LE snow one would catch off of the Lake Michigan...

Guarantee that Gary number is not accurate. The average is closer to the Chicago numbers.

[Tabitha]

Guarantee that Gary number is not accurate. The average is closer to the Chicago numbers.

 

I would tend to agree; I was lazy and took it from Wikipedia...lol.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary,_Indiana

 

I'll take a minute and see what I can find over at the NWS Chicago page...

 

I'll be right back...smoke a cigarette or something whilst I'm gone...

[Tabitha]

I would tend to agree; I was lazy and took it from Wikipedia...lol.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary,_Indiana

 

I'll take a minute and see what I can find over at the NWS Chicago page...

 

I'll be right back...smoke a cigarette or something whilst I'm gone...

 

The closest station I could find to Gary (7 miles to the east) was a place called "Indiana Dunes"...with a mean of 38.3".

 

However it was rife with missing data and consequently the record has to be deemed a little unreliable.

 

It was likewise in a good deal better position to derive the benefits of the prevailing NW wind off of Lake Michigan.

[Tony]

gfs

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011212/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Pass

[Minny_Weather]

GFS and Euro are turning into POS for me. Canadian's totals are way overdone. Rooting for the NAMily.

[gabel23]

Anybody got an update from the EURO??

[gosaints]

Anybody got an update from the EURO??

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180116-0000z.html

[bud2380]

these are 10:1 ratios so you could nearly double this for more realistic expectations. 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011212/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_96.png

[bud2380]

a better map for the IL peeps

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011212/illinois/ecmwf_acc_snow_illinois_96.png

[bud2380]

UK

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2018011212/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_84.png

[GDR]

I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

[Minny_Weather]

I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

Last Christmas Eve.

 

Before that, it was February 2, 2016.

 

We normally have at least 3 or 4 a year, with one or two 6" events.

[bud2380]

Last snow over 3"?  2 weeks ago to the day.   6" on 12/29/17 which was the highest individual snow event here since I believe 11/20/15 when we got 8" in the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids area.  I'll always remember that one for the awesome videos of Kinnick Stadium being cleared for the game the following day. 

[Tabitha]

I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

 

During the Mesozoic Era.

 

Not sure of the exact date; as calendars had not yet come into vogue.

[jaster220]

I am not sure where the readings are taken in the Gary, Indiana area but Gary is on the south end of Lake Michigan so for them to get a good lake effect set up there would have to be an almost due north wind and that is the least likely wind direction. However, that said when that set up occurs then they would do very well on most set ups. One limiting factor is that area is flat and without some hills there is less of a lift. Note South Bend that is east of Gary has a seasonal average of 65” Over here in Michigan some areas if the far eastern side of the state near Detroit also only average around 30” a season.

 

Macomb?

[jaster220]

I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

 

Idk? today? 

[jaster220]

I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

 

I'll follow your lead. When was your city/close region's last 20+" storm. Mine was 40 yrs ago. Still waiting for the recent "Euro-burn" to fade, lol

[Minny_Weather]

I'll follow your lead. When was your city/close region's last 20+" storm. Mine was 40 yrs ago. Still waiting for the recent "Euro-burn" to fade, lol

Latest we've had was a 19 incher back in the 60s I believe.

[jaster220]

gfs

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011212/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Wish they'd offer a good way to segregate systems. Like an option to show hr48-72 for example. Most of that for mby is today's event. Either way, I need this to stay north to get a useful wind fetch off of Lk Mich. So far, looks like winds would stay too SWesterly, vs W or WNW. This will be a minor 1-2" deal if that happens. I will be glad if Tom and others that have been shafted score good tho! 

[jaster220]

Last snow over 3"?  2 weeks ago to the day.   6" on 12/29/17 which was the highest individual snow event here since I believe 11/20/15 when we got 8" in the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids area.  I'll always remember that one for the awesome videos of Kinnick Stadium being cleared for the game the following day. 

 

Nice! One of the few across our sub able to say that. For all my snow, have to go back to early Dec of '16 for a 6+ amount

[Niko]

westMJim, on 12 Jan 2018 - 09:41 AM, said:

I am not sure where the readings are taken in the Gary, Indiana area but Gary is on the south end of Lake Michigan so for them to get a good lake effect set up there would have to be an almost due north wind and that is the least likely wind direction. However, that said when that set up occurs then they would do very well on most set ups. One limiting factor is that area is flat and without some hills there is less of a lift. Note South Bend that is east of Gary has a seasonal average of 65” Over here in Michigan some areas if the far eastern side of the state near Detroit also only average around 30” a season.

What????

[St Paul Storm]

Wish they'd offer a good way to segregate systems. Like an option to show hr48-72 for example. Most of that for mby is today's event. Either way, I need this to stay north to get a useful wind fetch off of Lk Mich. So far, looks like winds would stay too SWesterly, vs W or WNW. This will be a minor 1-2" deal if that happens. I will be glad if Tom and others that have been shafted score good tho! 

Tropicaltidbits has the ability to show 24 hour snowfall totals on the GFS using 10:1 ratios. Not exactly what you’re looking for, but it’s helpful when you want to see the totals between multiple systems

[St Paul Storm]

I'll follow your lead. When was your city/close region's last 20+" storm. Mine was 40 yrs ago. Still waiting for the recent "Euro-burn" to fade, lol

Last 3+” event was yesterday.

 

Last 20+ event was Oct 31-Nov 2 1991. That was the Twin Cities biggest snowstorm on record....28”. I wasn’t living here, but my wife was. She said it was the best 3 days of her life. She’s a snow lover like me.

[Tabitha]

westMJim, on 12 Jan 2018 - 09:41 AM, said:

What????

 

Basically correct.  They took readings at the Detriot City Airport from 1948 - 1982 and the mean snowfall was just 32.6" over those 34 years; and there are probably a couple of other spots in far SE Michigan; in very unfavorable spots to benefit from any of the 5 Great Lakes; that have a similar average.

 

Since that airport is in a highly urban environment; a reduction in snowfall would be normal.

 

On second check; it is 6 miles NW of Detroit; so the degree of urbanization might not be quite so profound; but airports still usually report less than the surrounding countryside because of all the activity related to machines & humans in the area.

 

The airport is only 50 or so feet higher than Lake St Claire; and so there is not much benefit from altitude...it is one of the lowest spots in the Lower Peninsula. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow this clipper pattern blows for us Nebraskans again. lol. Surprise surprise! 

[Minny_Weather]

Wow this clipper pattern blows for us Nebraskans again. lol. Surprise surprise! 

Doesn't look AWFUL. At least here. Omaha gets less.

[snowstorm83]

GFS has about 2" in Lincoln between the two. The MLK one is still mostly a miss, but a smidge better than previous runs at least.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS has about 2" in Lincoln between the two. The MLK one is still mostly a miss, but a smidge better than previous runs at least.

I think the NAM is way too warm on the MLK one. There's a random unjustifiable warm pocket showing on the NAMily, and once that trends down we should see slightly higher totals. Unless GFS is right and Lincoln almost completely misses out on the band.

 

Not that it means much, but OAX isn't buying any non-snow precip chances either.

[Niko]

Wish they'd offer a good way to segregate systems. Like an option to show hr48-72 for example. Most of that for mby is today's event. Either way, I need this to stay north to get a useful wind fetch off of Lk Mich. So far, looks like winds would stay too SWesterly, vs W or WNW. This will be a minor 1-2" deal if that happens. I will be glad if Tom and others that have been shafted score good tho! 

Looks like Indiana, most southern parts of IL and parts of CMI is the winner on the GFS.

[Niko]

Last 3+” event was yesterday.

 

Last 20+ event was Oct 31-Nov 2 1991. That was the Twin Cities biggest snowstorm on record....28”. I wasn’t living here, but my wife was. She said it was the best 3 days of her life. She’s a snow lover like me.

I remember that storm. Was living in NYC at that time and even we on the coast had some mixing going on that early in the season. We called it the "Halloween Storm". Anyways, it was a great storm, especially for you guys. Not a thrilled w early season or late season snowstorms though.

[Tom]

00z Euro...pretty much a 1-3" event, but if the meso low that the models are showing coming down the lake on Tue/Wed does something funky, then lakeside counties can score a surprise.  Other than that, prob just enough to change the landscape and whiten up the ground.

[Tom]

LOT's take...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png?9ea29b71578dfcf3b6ddaf27b5be4fc3

[St Paul Storm]

2-3” still looking good here. A few of the CAMs including the NAM are starting to show a few 4” pockets in the area. 3” is my minimum for firing up the snowblower so let’s make it happen.

[jaster220]

00z Euro...pretty much a 1-3" event, but if the meso low that the models are showing coming down the lake on Tue/Wed does something funky, then lakeside counties can score a surprise. Other than that, prob just enough to change the landscape and whiten up the ground.

Little Sable Pnt along Lake Michigan looks to be targeted by that plume! 1.2" qpf could fluff to a 15+ hit right there. Gorgeous spot there with the Silver Lake Dunes as a unique natural setting. Busy in summer, but I love hiking them in the off-season. The dunes are up to 100 ft tall and the region is about 1 by 3 miles in area. Hard work walking in sand tho. Better when they get a little winter moisture and freeze with a solid crust. But that's usually when we have tundra conditions and the brutal winds get ya!

 

2-3" is one of your more solid snow-casts this season, correct?

 

My concern is that sans decent help from the lake, this will be a cold pixie dust event over here, and you can halve those amts in that case. Iirc our first clipper was also one of these "dive-downer" types. While that turned out positive over this way, we aren't at the beginning of December coming off of a warm regime. This is Jan and the atmosphere is seasonably less moist. Anything over 2" in Marshall I'll consider a win. Best of luck to ya!

[jaster220]

2-3” still looking good here. A few of the CAMs including the NAM are starting to show a few 4” pockets in the area. 3” is my minimum for firing up the snowblower so let’s make it happen.

What's a "CAM" model? Nvr heard of them