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#51
gabel23

Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:03 AM

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Anybody got an update from the EURO??



#52
gosaints

Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:11 AM

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Anybody got an update from the EURO??

https://weather.us/m...0116-0000z.html


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#53
bud2380

Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:52 AM

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these are 10:1 ratios so you could nearly double this for more realistic expectations. 

 

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_96.png



#54
bud2380

Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:53 AM

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a better map for the IL peeps

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_illinois_96.png



#55
bud2380

Posted 12 January 2018 - 11:54 AM

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UK

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_84.png



#56
GDR

Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:05 PM

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I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

#57
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:08 PM

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I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

Last Christmas Eve.

 

Before that, it was February 2, 2016.

 

We normally have at least 3 or 4 a year, with one or two 6" events.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#58
bud2380

Posted 12 January 2018 - 12:45 PM

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Last snow over 3"?  2 weeks ago to the day. :)  6" on 12/29/17 which was the highest individual snow event here since I believe 11/20/15 when we got 8" in the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids area.  I'll always remember that one for the awesome videos of Kinnick Stadium being cleared for the game the following day. 


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#59
Tabitha

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:18 PM

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I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

 

During the Mesozoic Era.

 

Not sure of the exact date; as calendars had not yet come into vogue.


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#60
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:27 PM

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I am not sure where the readings are taken in the Gary, Indiana area but Gary is on the south end of Lake Michigan so for them to get a good lake effect set up there would have to be an almost due north wind and that is the least likely wind direction. However, that said when that set up occurs then they would do very well on most set ups. One limiting factor is that area is flat and without some hills there is less of a lift. Note South Bend that is east of Gary has a seasonal average of 65” Over here in Michigan some areas if the far eastern side of the state near Detroit also only average around 30” a season.

 

Macomb?


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#61
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:29 PM

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I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

 

Idk? today? 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#62
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:31 PM

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I was trying to remember the last snow over 3 inches was for me and i Believe it was over three years ago. What was everyone else’s?

 

I'll follow your lead. When was your city/close region's last 20+" storm. Mine was 40 yrs ago. Still waiting for the recent "Euro-burn" to fade, lol


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#63
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:35 PM

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I'll follow your lead. When was your city/close region's last 20+" storm. Mine was 40 yrs ago. Still waiting for the recent "Euro-burn" to fade, lol


Latest we've had was a 19 incher back in the 60s I believe.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#64
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:36 PM

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gfs

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Wish they'd offer a good way to segregate systems. Like an option to show hr48-72 for example. Most of that for mby is today's event. Either way, I need this to stay north to get a useful wind fetch off of Lk Mich. So far, looks like winds would stay too SWesterly, vs W or WNW. This will be a minor 1-2" deal if that happens. I will be glad if Tom and others that have been shafted score good tho!  :)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#65
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:39 PM

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Last snow over 3"?  2 weeks ago to the day. :)  6" on 12/29/17 which was the highest individual snow event here since I believe 11/20/15 when we got 8" in the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids area.  I'll always remember that one for the awesome videos of Kinnick Stadium being cleared for the game the following day. 

 

Nice! One of the few across our sub able to say that. For all my snow, have to go back to early Dec of '16 for a 6+ amount


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#66
Niko

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:40 PM

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westMJim, on 12 Jan 2018 - 09:41 AM, said:snapback.png

I am not sure where the readings are taken in the Gary, Indiana area but Gary is on the south end of Lake Michigan so for them to get a good lake effect set up there would have to be an almost due north wind and that is the least likely wind direction. However, that said when that set up occurs then they would do very well on most set ups. One limiting factor is that area is flat and without some hills there is less of a lift. Note South Bend that is east of Gary has a seasonal average of 65” Over here in Michigan some areas if the far eastern side of the state near Detroit also only average around 30” a season.

What????



#67
St Paul Storm

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:42 PM

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Wish they'd offer a good way to segregate systems. Like an option to show hr48-72 for example. Most of that for mby is today's event. Either way, I need this to stay north to get a useful wind fetch off of Lk Mich. So far, looks like winds would stay too SWesterly, vs W or WNW. This will be a minor 1-2" deal if that happens. I will be glad if Tom and others that have been shafted score good tho!  :)


Tropicaltidbits has the ability to show 24 hour snowfall totals on the GFS using 10:1 ratios. Not exactly what you’re looking for, but it’s helpful when you want to see the totals between multiple systems
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#68
St Paul Storm

Posted 12 January 2018 - 01:52 PM

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I'll follow your lead. When was your city/close region's last 20+" storm. Mine was 40 yrs ago. Still waiting for the recent "Euro-burn" to fade, lol

Last 3+” event was yesterday.

Last 20+ event was Oct 31-Nov 2 1991. That was the Twin Cities biggest snowstorm on record....28”. I wasn’t living here, but my wife was. She said it was the best 3 days of her life. She’s a snow lover like me.
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#69
Tabitha

Posted 12 January 2018 - 02:09 PM

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westMJim, on 12 Jan 2018 - 09:41 AM, said:snapback.png

What????

 

Basically correct.  They took readings at the Detriot City Airport from 1948 - 1982 and the mean snowfall was just 32.6" over those 34 years; and there are probably a couple of other spots in far SE Michigan; in very unfavorable spots to benefit from any of the 5 Great Lakes; that have a similar average.

 

Since that airport is in a highly urban environment; a reduction in snowfall would be normal.

 

On second check; it is 6 miles NW of Detroit; so the degree of urbanization might not be quite so profound; but airports still usually report less than the surrounding countryside because of all the activity related to machines & humans in the area.

 

The airport is only 50 or so feet higher than Lake St Claire; and so there is not much benefit from altitude...it is one of the lowest spots in the Lower Peninsula. 


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#70
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:27 PM

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Wow this clipper pattern blows for us Nebraskans again. lol. Surprise surprise! 


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#71
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2018 - 07:50 PM

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Wow this clipper pattern blows for us Nebraskans again. lol. Surprise surprise! 

Doesn't look AWFUL. At least here. Omaha gets less.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#72
snowstorm83

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:17 PM

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GFS has about 2" in Lincoln between the two. The MLK one is still mostly a miss, but a smidge better than previous runs at least.



#73
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:21 PM

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GFS has about 2" in Lincoln between the two. The MLK one is still mostly a miss, but a smidge better than previous runs at least.

I think the NAM is way too warm on the MLK one. There's a random unjustifiable warm pocket showing on the NAMily, and once that trends down we should see slightly higher totals. Unless GFS is right and Lincoln almost completely misses out on the band.

 

Not that it means much, but OAX isn't buying any non-snow precip chances either.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#74
Niko

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:37 PM

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Wish they'd offer a good way to segregate systems. Like an option to show hr48-72 for example. Most of that for mby is today's event. Either way, I need this to stay north to get a useful wind fetch off of Lk Mich. So far, looks like winds would stay too SWesterly, vs W or WNW. This will be a minor 1-2" deal if that happens. I will be glad if Tom and others that have been shafted score good tho!  :)

Looks like Indiana, most southern parts of IL and parts of CMI is the winner on the GFS. ;)



#75
Niko

Posted 12 January 2018 - 08:54 PM

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Last 3+” event was yesterday.

Last 20+ event was Oct 31-Nov 2 1991. That was the Twin Cities biggest snowstorm on record....28”. I wasn’t living here, but my wife was. She said it was the best 3 days of her life. She’s a snow lover like me.

I remember that storm. Was living in NYC at that time and even we on the coast had some mixing going on that early in the season. We called it the "Halloween Storm". Anyways, it was a great storm, especially for you guys. Not a thrilled w early season or late season snowstorms though.


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#76
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 05:32 AM

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00z Euro...pretty much a 1-3" event, but if the meso low that the models are showing coming down the lake on Tue/Wed does something funky, then lakeside counties can score a surprise.  Other than that, prob just enough to change the landscape and whiten up the ground.



#77
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:00 AM

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LOT's take...

 

Tab2FileL.png?9ea29b71578dfcf3b6ddaf27b5


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#78
St Paul Storm

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:50 AM

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2-3” still looking good here. A few of the CAMs including the NAM are starting to show a few 4” pockets in the area. 3” is my minimum for firing up the snowblower so let’s make it happen.
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#79
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2018 - 07:56 AM

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00z Euro...pretty much a 1-3" event, but if the meso low that the models are showing coming down the lake on Tue/Wed does something funky, then lakeside counties can score a surprise. Other than that, prob just enough to change the landscape and whiten up the ground.

Little Sable Pnt along Lake Michigan looks to be targeted by that plume! 1.2" qpf could fluff to a 15+ hit right there. Gorgeous spot there with the Silver Lake Dunes as a unique natural setting. Busy in summer, but I love hiking them in the off-season. The dunes are up to 100 ft tall and the region is about 1 by 3 miles in area. Hard work walking in sand tho. Better when they get a little winter moisture and freeze with a solid crust. But that's usually when we have tundra conditions and the brutal winds get ya!

2-3" is one of your more solid snow-casts this season, correct?

My concern is that sans decent help from the lake, this will be a cold pixie dust event over here, and you can halve those amts in that case. Iirc our first clipper was also one of these "dive-downer" types. While that turned out positive over this way, we aren't at the beginning of December coming off of a warm regime. This is Jan and the atmosphere is seasonably less moist. Anything over 2" in Marshall I'll consider a win. Best of luck to ya!
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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2018 - 07:59 AM

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2-3” still looking good here. A few of the CAMs including the NAM are starting to show a few 4” pockets in the area. 3” is my minimum for firing up the snowblower so let’s make it happen.


What's a "CAM" model? Nvr heard of them

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#81
St Paul Storm

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:37 AM

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What's a "CAM" model? Nvr heard of them


Convection-Allowing Models, such as the HRRR, RGEM, 3km NAM, etc. Basically another name for ‘short term’ models that can pick up on smaller mesoscale features that the globals struggle with.
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#82
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:45 AM

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Love how both systems split omaha lol. And monday system forms north splits apart over omaha then reforms south.

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#83
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 09:12 AM

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Convection-Allowing Models, such as the HRRR, RGEM, 3km NAM, etc. Basically another name for ‘short term’ models that can pick up on smaller mesoscale features that the globals struggle with.

;) Sweet!



#84
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:05 PM

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This outta put 1-3" IMBY, but who knows. We will see what happens!



#85
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:41 PM

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12z Euro/EPS both came in a bit wetter across WI/N IL, esp near the Sheboygan/MKE area as it's seeing a better set up for LES on Tue/Wed.  It's also seeing this feature swing down into NE IL/N IN.  Something to monitor as we get closer.  

 

18z NAM seeing this increased snowfall across E WI...models didn't do quite well with Friday's LES in Chicago at this range so as is the case with these meso low's it will basically a now cast deal.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_46.png



#86
Madtown

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:54 PM

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Green Bay Nws thinking
2-4 for the clipper and then heavy lake effect for NW vilas county. we'll see

#87
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:55 PM

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2-3” still looking good here. A few of the CAMs including the NAM are starting to show a few 4” pockets in the area. 3” is my minimum for firing up the snowblower so let’s make it happen.

Get ready to fire it up...you are looking golden there with this one. Maybe an overachiever.



#88
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:59 PM

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Per NOAA:

 

Attention then turns to a rather vigorous arctic shortwave which is
forecast to dig sharply south-southeast into the area from the
Arctic Circle, arriving in the upper midwestern states on Monday. As
would be expected with a system originating from this region,
moisture quality is a bit suspect with H85-H7 mixing ratios of only
1.0-1.5 g/kg. However, broad area of isentropic ascent in advance of
this feature will likely lead to widespread light snow across the
region. Models are actually in rather good agreement with both the
placement and strength of this system early next week, so confidence
in a light snow event is rather high for Monday with a few inches of
snow quite possible.


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#89
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 01:59 PM

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Something to keep an eye on:

 

Per NOAA:

 

Monday night will bear watching as
the trail trough axis lays out across mid MI. Some models are
hinting at the lakes helping to fuel this feature keeping snowfall
occuring through the night and possibly into Tuesday. This would be
a narrower axis, and more transient as flow veers behind the exiting
low. Something to keep an eye on in future models runs as we get
more into hires model time domains.



#90
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:02 PM

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18z GFS came in much wetter, especially for those in WI/IL.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#91
WBadgersW

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:07 PM

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GFS would double our seasons snowfall total!
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#92
St Paul Storm

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:45 PM

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Get ready to fire it up...you are looking golden there with this one. Maybe an overachiever.


That’ll be determined after it’s done snowing and I open the garage door. Haha.
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#93
East Dubzz

Posted 13 January 2018 - 02:48 PM

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I don’t want this snow at all, so I’m sure we’ll end up with 3 or more inches.

#94
Niko

Posted 13 January 2018 - 05:54 PM

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They have lowered my accumulations now. From a ridiculous 1-3" from previously is now an inch. :lol: I don't like garbage snows, so I am all for it. (1-3...2-4 and sh*t means nothin). Hopefully, others on here can score better w this sucka.



#95
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 13 January 2018 - 06:20 PM

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Another step up from the NAM. Looking like a decent event for our WI/IL posters. Expecting ~2" out here. 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#96
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:03 PM

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Nice trends this evening...both 00z NAM/GFS trending wetter for many of us on here...widespread WWA's on the table???

00z NAM...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z GFS....

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#97
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:06 PM

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In fact, if you live near the lake in WI/IL, there's a good chance that you may score some additional Lehs Tue into Wed.  If this feature holds into 12z Monday's runs, I'll believe it more, but I'm starting to like the idea of possible 6"+ totals lakeside in WI locals.  I'm not jumping on board just yet for NE IL posters.



#98
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:10 PM

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00z ICON...

 

icon_apcpn_ncus_33.png



#99
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:16 PM

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Here's a map from today's 12z Euro run which looked snowier compared to previous runs...esp if you live near the lake...

 

DTdzcS2W4AELxy7.jpg



#100
Money

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:33 PM

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Gem 5-6 inch amounts for most of southern wi/IL

http://www.pivotalwe...6&r=us_mw&dpdt=