Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

MLK Holiday Clipper

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#101
Tom

Posted 13 January 2018 - 08:39 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
So trends are South and stronger tonight which is a pleasant surprise. We’ll have Brian do the honors....lol

#102
Hawkeye

Posted 13 January 2018 - 10:16 PM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1585 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

00z Euro has juiced up a bit overall, really juiced up se WI and ne IL.

 


  • Tom likes this

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#103
BrianJK

Posted 13 January 2018 - 11:09 PM

BrianJK

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 381 posts
  • LocationElmhurst, IL

So trends are South and stronger tonight which is a pleasant surprise. We’ll have Brian do the honors....lol


Haha, we shall see

#104
VMB443

Posted 14 January 2018 - 03:06 AM

VMB443

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 119 posts
  • LocationMilwaukee West
We got our WWA here.
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#105
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 03:38 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

06z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

 

06z NAM...picture perfect pivot on this run for MKE to get crushed....

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_28.png

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


  • FV-Mike likes this

#106
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 03:40 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

We got our WWA here.

You guys are going to do real well up there, esp if the lake works its magic.  I've been waiting a few years for a clipper like this one to show up in our area that takes this track through N IL.  Ideally, for MBY, I'd like it to track a tick south but I'm not greedy.  Good luck up there!



#107
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 03:44 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

06z NAM 3km is clearly showing the Lehs band pounding the WI shoreline..first up north near Sheboygan, then it slides south...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_33.png

 

 

 

Starts hitting MKE around between 1:00-2:00 pm tomorrow...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_38.png

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_40.png

 

 

 

Nice plume of heavier precip hugging the shoreline...

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png



#108
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 03:50 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Surprised LOT is not thinking of issuing a WWA...

 

 

 

Soundings
initially indicate a deep dendritic growth zone (8000 feet or so)
which will help result in higher snow to liquid ratios, but the
depth of the DGZ does gradually taper off throughout the event and
the best forcing generally stay just above the DGZ. As this
change occurs, expect SLRs to gradually diminish from around 20:1
at precip onset down towards 15-16:1 after midnight. F-Gen and
static stability don`t present any real concerns for mesoscale
banding at this point, so mainly anticipate a steady snow to fall
from this evening through at least midday Monday. Models in
reasonable agreement of snow peaking overnight through early
Monday morning with around 0.20-0.25 inches QPF throughout the
event. This should result in snow totals of 2-4 inches area-wide.
At this time, do not plan on hoisting a winter weather advisory
given the relatively long duration snowfall and no apparent threat
for mesoscale banding.


#109
VMB443

Posted 14 January 2018 - 03:59 AM

VMB443

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 119 posts
  • LocationMilwaukee West

You guys are going to do real well up there, esp if the lake works its magic.  I've been waiting a few years for a clipper like this one to show up in our area that takes this track through N IL.  Ideally, for MBY, I'd like it to track a tick south but I'm not greedy.  Good luck up there!


I sure hope so - the Advisory says 5-7 and a nice long duration event. I’m thinking we are going to have a fun day and a half or so here, but I’m still a little nervous about being let down, but the trends are all moving in the right direction - always like seeing increased totals as it’s closer rather than the opposite but I think we’ve underperformed here this year from predicted totals. I guess all we can do is wait.
  • Tom likes this

#110
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 04:02 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

00z Euro Control and EPS precip mean...the trend is wetter and better....haha...somebody up in Wisco is going to see some jackpot totals.  I'm really surprised that LOT hasn't issued a WWA.  If these juicy totals continue through 12z, I'd imagine they would pull the trigger.

 

 



#111
Madtown

Posted 14 January 2018 - 04:04 AM

Madtown

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1177 posts
looking good. 4-6 here, and 5-7 in Vilas. sledding trip is a go and some white at home!
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#112
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 04:05 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I sure hope so - the Advisory says 5-7 and a nice long duration event. I’m thinking we are going to have a fun day and a half or so here, but I’m still a little nervous about being let down, but the trends are all moving in the right direction - always like seeing increased totals as it’s closer rather than the opposite but I think we’ve underperformed here this year from predicted totals. I guess all we can do is wait.

Like you said, it's a positive to see the trends go the other way for once.  Most of my snow will fall overnight but should continue throughout the day tomorrow.  I'm hoping the lake band holds together as it pivots down into NE IL.  This band can actually dump snow pretty far inland.  I recall years ago a similar situation and it was able to snow 20+ miles inland so the W/NW burbs of MKE could do very well also.



#113
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 04:07 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

LOT just updated their snowfall maps with a widespread 3-4"...I'll take it...

 

Tab2FileL.png?962bd6ca419cfaec591b8a5727


  • jaster220 likes this

#114
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 04:17 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

06z GEFS qpf mean looks like a carbon copy to the 00z EPS...I think ORD has a chance to double its snowfall totals from this 2-day system...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_17.png


  • FV-Mike likes this

#115
bud2380

Posted 14 January 2018 - 05:11 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1984 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

Surprised LOT is not thinking of issuing a WWA...


It really doesn’t surprise me. The NWS often gets too cute in their forecast. They arbitrarily break the guidelines sometimes and not others. Like the WWA we got the other day for a quarter inch of sleet. But with 2-3” of snow followed by stronger winds and very cold temps, they opt to leave it as nothing. Which will catch people who don’t pay close attention to forecasts off guard.
  • Tom likes this

#116
james1976

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:05 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4298 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
GFS looks a bit better for IA

#117
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:17 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z NAM still looking good for N IL...widespread 4-5"...the lake band that forms off of LM looks rather interesting as it slowly pivots around.  It actually dumps snow all the way into C WI!  This is going to be the "wild card" feature and if someone can sit underneath this thing it could really add up totals.  The SLP basically stalls out near the southern tip of LM.



#118
WBadgersW

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:23 AM

WBadgersW

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 738 posts
  • LocationGermantown WI
Positive trends for once. I did not think I'd see 6" from this, but things are looking better.
  • Tom likes this

#119
Money

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:28 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7968 posts
7+ towards MKE

http://www.pivotalwe...1&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#120
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:36 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
d**n, 12z NAM picking up on a solid lake plume hugging the shoreline of WI/IL! #Bonus

#121
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:39 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1749 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Wasn’t supposed to start snowing here until around 2-3pm, but a band of snow has developed and is pushing up from the SW. Nothing heavy at the moment. 2-5” in the point for today. Too bad the Vikings don’t play outdoors. Currently -2F.
  • Tom likes this

#122
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:42 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1749 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

d**n, 12z NAM picking up on a solid lake plume hugging the shoreline of WI/IL! #Bonus


Awesome! Score a nice one today Tom.
  • Tom likes this

#123
Tony

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:45 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1578 posts
  • LocationDuPage County
I did not believe this clipper would hold together but trends are actually looking better with each run. Wild card is lake enhanced but pivot point is favorablle for the area. Long duration event will actually feel like winter for the 1st time.
  • jaster220 likes this

#124
Money

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:46 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7968 posts

I did not believe this clipper would hold together but trends are actually looking better with each run. Wild card is lake enhanced but pivot point is favorablle for the area. Long duration event will actually feel like winter for the 1st time.


And then it melts next week when that system cuts west of us lol

#125
Niko

Posted 14 January 2018 - 06:58 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5345 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Big warm-up next week.....possibly 50s and rain in  the forecast. :lol:



#126
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 January 2018 - 07:07 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1749 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

And then it melts next week when that system cuts west of us lol


Huh, I haven’t even looked at the models past today’s event. Maybe 40 here on Friday. That sucks.

#127
Tony

Posted 14 January 2018 - 07:15 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1578 posts
  • LocationDuPage County
I'll take what I can get at this point. Not worried about next weekend just yet.

#128
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 January 2018 - 07:21 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1749 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
If the current band is any indication, ratios with the main event later today are gonna be as high as predicted. Nice fatty flakes.

#129
Tony

Posted 14 January 2018 - 07:24 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1578 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

If the current band is any indication, ratios with the main event later today are gonna be as high as predicted. Nice fatty flakes.


Glad to hear

#130
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 08:00 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z GFS continue the wetter theme!  I see you Lehs...MSP/LSE and points SE towards N IN do very well...LOT's prob gonna pull the trigger...

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


  • St Paul Storm likes this

#131
hlcater

Posted 14 January 2018 - 08:37 AM

hlcater

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1288 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA
First flakes are flying out here. Seems dry air is being overcome.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#132
FV-Mike

Posted 14 January 2018 - 08:50 AM

FV-Mike

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 365 posts
  • LocationGeneva,IL

Grid forecast increased to 3-6 in. nice to see an increase over the last couple of days. Lets just hope it works out!


  • Tom likes this

#133
james1976

Posted 14 January 2018 - 08:55 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4298 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Light snow for a while now. That was not predicted. Ground is white already. Clipper is still way up in Dakotas and MN.

#134
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 09:04 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z GGEM...a little more love than the others...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#135
BLIZZARD09

Posted 14 January 2018 - 09:18 AM

BLIZZARD09

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 118 posts
  • LocationLincolnwood Ill

I have never seen a forecast for 3-4 inches of snow without a WWA--What gives over there?



#136
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 January 2018 - 09:19 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1749 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Not even the current hour run of the HRRR has picked up on the band currently hitting MN and IA. This has overachiever written all over it. About 0.25” down already.

#137
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 09:28 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I have never seen a forecast for 3-4 inches of snow without a WWA--What gives over there?

They'll prob wait till the afternoon AFD.  I'd be shocked if they don't.  Latest 12z GEFS has a 2.5"-3" mean at 10:1 over N IL.



#138
Stormgeek

Posted 14 January 2018 - 09:28 AM

Stormgeek

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 296 posts

Not even the current hour run of the HRRR has picked up on the band currently hitting MN and IA. This has overachiever written all over it. About 0.25” down already.

Looks like there is a band also coming down from the north out ahead of this thing right now. In the St. Cloud area.



#139
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 January 2018 - 09:32 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1749 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

Looks like there is a band also coming down from the north out ahead of this thing right now. In the St. Cloud area.


Yeah we should see that whole area fill in on the radar. That’s probably what’s happening now.

#140
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 January 2018 - 09:42 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1749 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

I have never seen a forecast for 3-4 inches of snow without a WWA--What gives over there?


This must be where the offices use their own judgement when issuing advisories. MPX calling this a healthy clipper and 2-5” in the forecast, but they say this is ‘not headline worthy.’ Advisory or not, we’re all getting a good snow today.

#141
Tom

Posted 14 January 2018 - 10:20 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17290 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z Euro...looks about the same over here but also filled in out in IA...


  • bud2380 likes this

#142
WBadgersW

Posted 14 January 2018 - 10:21 AM

WBadgersW

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 738 posts
  • LocationGermantown WI
Update from MKX... Lake effect threat seems to be growing. I'm not sure if I'm going to get the brunt, but its going to be close.

Continuing to evaluate the need to raise snowfall accumulations in
the northern and eastern areas near Lake Michigan. This would be
due to the lake enhanced snow band pivoting southward through
these areas Monday into Monday evening, and for lake effect snow
expected later Monday night into Tuesday morning. May need to
raise amounts a few inches in these areas.
Also contemplating the need for a Winter Storm Warning for
Sheboygan south to Milwaukee County, given the possible higher
amounts and impact on the Monday/Tuesday morning commutes. The
lake enhanced band will continue to be the variable that will be
most tricky to pin down, thus the most uncertainty.

#143
james1976

Posted 14 January 2018 - 10:36 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4298 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Snow all over S Dakota. Makes me feel pretty good over here. Euro latching onto that. Maybe ill get 3" out of this yet.

#144
bud2380

Posted 14 January 2018 - 11:18 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1984 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

I think it is pretty dumb that the NWS isn't issuing a WWA given the snow forecasts along with the wind and cold to follow.  It really doesn't make any sense.  In many cases the snowfall alone actually meets criteria and they still aren't issuing one.  I have a feeling they will issue one after conditions have already deteriorated.  



#145
Tabitha

Posted 14 January 2018 - 11:29 AM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

Snow all over S Dakota.

 

Except here; though there were a few stray flakes at noon with a temperature of 40 F.

 

This is the worst place on the planet for snow...and no reasonable person could argue the contrary.

 

<Okay, maybe a *bit* of hyperbole>

 

People talk about an "OmahaDome"...they should try three months here.



#146
Tabitha

Posted 14 January 2018 - 11:32 AM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

Except here; though there were a few stray flakes at noon with a temperature of 40 F.

 

This is the worst place on the planet for snow...and no reasonable person could argue the contrary.

 

<Okay, maybe a *bit* of hyperbole>

 

People talk about an "OmahaDome"...they should try three months here.

 

Gee, I just took a look out the window a second ago and all of a sudden it is snowing nicely.

 

The reverse psychology must have worked...

 

*Smirks*


  • jaster220 likes this

#147
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 January 2018 - 11:38 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1749 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
3 or 4 heavier bands setting up between here and St Cloud. Time to get down to business.

#148
Money

Posted 14 January 2018 - 11:54 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7968 posts
Milwaukee issues a Wintet Storm Warning for lakeshore counties for 8-10

Going with 5.7 here on their map
  • jaster220 likes this

#149
Money

Posted 14 January 2018 - 12:00 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7968 posts
You can clearly see the LE band set up tomorrow on the nam

http://www.instantwe...r=REFC&hour=022

Sits in the same areas for hours

#150
Madtown

Posted 14 January 2018 - 12:22 PM

Madtown

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1177 posts
light snow has begun