MLK Holiday Clipper

[St Paul Storm]

What's a "CAM" model? Nvr heard of them

Convection-Allowing Models, such as the HRRR, RGEM, 3km NAM, etc. Basically another name for ‘short term’ models that can pick up on smaller mesoscale features that the globals struggle with.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Love how both systems split omaha lol. And monday system forms north splits apart over omaha then reforms south.

[Niko]

Convection-Allowing Models, such as the HRRR, RGEM, 3km NAM, etc. Basically another name for ‘short term’ models that can pick up on smaller mesoscale features that the globals struggle with.

Sweet!

[Niko]

This outta put 1-3" IMBY, but who knows. We will see what happens!

[Tom]

12z Euro/EPS both came in a bit wetter across WI/N IL, esp near the Sheboygan/MKE area as it's seeing a better set up for LES on Tue/Wed.  It's also seeing this feature swing down into NE IL/N IN.  Something to monitor as we get closer.  

 

18z NAM seeing this increased snowfall across E WI...models didn't do quite well with Friday's LES in Chicago at this range so as is the case with these meso low's it will basically a now cast deal.

 

[Madtown]

Green Bay Nws thinking

2-4 for the clipper and then heavy lake effect for NW vilas county. we'll see

[Niko]

2-3” still looking good here. A few of the CAMs including the NAM are starting to show a few 4” pockets in the area. 3” is my minimum for firing up the snowblower so let’s make it happen.

Get ready to fire it up...you are looking golden there with this one. Maybe an overachiever.

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

Attention then turns to a rather vigorous arctic shortwave which is
forecast to dig sharply south-southeast into the area from the
Arctic Circle, arriving in the upper midwestern states on Monday. As
would be expected with a system originating from this region,
moisture quality is a bit suspect with H85-H7 mixing ratios of only
1.0-1.5 g/kg. However, broad area of isentropic ascent in advance of
this feature will likely lead to widespread light snow across the
region. Models are actually in rather good agreement with both the
placement and strength of this system early next week, so confidence
in a light snow event is rather high for Monday with a few inches of
snow quite possible.

[Niko]

Something to keep an eye on:

 

Per NOAA:

 

Monday night will bear watching as
the trail trough axis lays out across mid MI. Some models are
hinting at the lakes helping to fuel this feature keeping snowfall
occuring through the night and possibly into Tuesday. This would be
a narrower axis, and more transient as flow veers behind the exiting
low. Something to keep an eye on in future models runs as we get
more into hires model time domains.

[hlcater]

18z GFS came in much wetter, especially for those in WI/IL.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011318/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[WBadgersW]

GFS would double our seasons snowfall total!

[St Paul Storm]

Get ready to fire it up...you are looking golden there with this one. Maybe an overachiever.

That’ll be determined after it’s done snowing and I open the garage door. Haha.

[East Dubzz]

I don’t want this snow at all, so I’m sure we’ll end up with 3 or more inches.

[Niko]

They have lowered my accumulations now. From a ridiculous 1-3" from previously is now an inch. I don't like garbage snows, so I am all for it. (1-3...2-4 and sh*t means nothin). Hopefully, others on here can score better w this sucka.

[hlcater]

Another step up from the NAM. Looking like a decent event for our WI/IL posters. Expecting ~2" out here. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011400/042/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Nice trends this evening...both 00z NAM/GFS trending wetter for many of us on here...widespread WWA's on the table???

00z NAM...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011400/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z GFS....

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011400/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

In fact, if you live near the lake in WI/IL, there's a good chance that you may score some additional Lehs Tue into Wed.  If this feature holds into 12z Monday's runs, I'll believe it more, but I'm starting to like the idea of possible 6"+ totals lakeside in WI locals.  I'm not jumping on board just yet for NE IL posters.

[Tom]

00z ICON...

 

[Tom]

Here's a map from today's 12z Euro run which looked snowier compared to previous runs...esp if you live near the lake...

 

[Money]

Gem 5-6 inch amounts for most of southern wi/IL

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011400&fh=66&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Tom]

So trends are South and stronger tonight which is a pleasant surprise. We’ll have Brian do the honors....lol

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro has juiced up a bit overall, really juiced up se WI and ne IL.

 

 

[BrianJK]

So trends are South and stronger tonight which is a pleasant surprise. We’ll have Brian do the honors....lol

Haha, we shall see

[VMB443]

We got our WWA here.

[Tom]

06z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011406/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

 

06z NAM...picture perfect pivot on this run for MKE to get crushed....

 

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011406/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

We got our WWA here.

You guys are going to do real well up there, esp if the lake works its magic.  I've been waiting a few years for a clipper like this one to show up in our area that takes this track through N IL.  Ideally, for MBY, I'd like it to track a tick south but I'm not greedy.  Good luck up there!

[Tom]

06z NAM 3km is clearly showing the Lehs band pounding the WI shoreline..first up north near Sheboygan, then it slides south...

 

 

 

 

Starts hitting MKE around between 1:00-2:00 pm tomorrow...

 

 

 

 

 

Nice plume of heavier precip hugging the shoreline...

 

[Tom]

Surprised LOT is not thinking of issuing a WWA...

 

 

 

Soundings
initially indicate a deep dendritic growth zone (8000 feet or so)
which will help result in higher snow to liquid ratios, but the
depth of the DGZ does gradually taper off throughout the event and
the best forcing generally stay just above the DGZ. As this
change occurs, expect SLRs to gradually diminish from around 20:1
at precip onset down towards 15-16:1 after midnight. F-Gen and
static stability don`t present any real concerns for mesoscale
banding at this point, so mainly anticipate a steady snow to fall
from this evening through at least midday Monday. Models in
reasonable agreement of snow peaking overnight through early
Monday morning with around 0.20-0.25 inches QPF throughout the
event. This should result in snow totals of 2-4 inches area-wide.
At this time, do not plan on hoisting a winter weather advisory
given the relatively long duration snowfall and no apparent threat
for mesoscale banding.

[VMB443]

You guys are going to do real well up there, esp if the lake works its magic.  I've been waiting a few years for a clipper like this one to show up in our area that takes this track through N IL.  Ideally, for MBY, I'd like it to track a tick south but I'm not greedy.  Good luck up there!

I sure hope so - the Advisory says 5-7 and a nice long duration event. I’m thinking we are going to have a fun day and a half or so here, but I’m still a little nervous about being let down, but the trends are all moving in the right direction - always like seeing increased totals as it’s closer rather than the opposite but I think we’ve underperformed here this year from predicted totals. I guess all we can do is wait.

[Tom]

00z Euro Control and EPS precip mean...the trend is wetter and better....haha...somebody up in Wisco is going to see some jackpot totals.  I'm really surprised that LOT hasn't issued a WWA.  If these juicy totals continue through 12z, I'd imagine they would pull the trigger.

 

 

[Madtown]

looking good. 4-6 here, and 5-7 in Vilas. sledding trip is a go and some white at home!

[Tom]

I sure hope so - the Advisory says 5-7 and a nice long duration event. I’m thinking we are going to have a fun day and a half or so here, but I’m still a little nervous about being let down, but the trends are all moving in the right direction - always like seeing increased totals as it’s closer rather than the opposite but I think we’ve underperformed here this year from predicted totals. I guess all we can do is wait.

Like you said, it's a positive to see the trends go the other way for once.  Most of my snow will fall overnight but should continue throughout the day tomorrow.  I'm hoping the lake band holds together as it pivots down into NE IL.  This band can actually dump snow pretty far inland.  I recall years ago a similar situation and it was able to snow 20+ miles inland so the W/NW burbs of MKE could do very well also.

[Tom]

LOT just updated their snowfall maps with a widespread 3-4"...I'll take it...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png?962bd6ca419cfaec591b8a57275e7fe8

[Tom]

06z GEFS qpf mean looks like a carbon copy to the 00z EPS...I think ORD has a chance to double its snowfall totals from this 2-day system...

 

[bud2380]

Surprised LOT is not thinking of issuing a WWA...

It really doesn’t surprise me. The NWS often gets too cute in their forecast. They arbitrarily break the guidelines sometimes and not others. Like the WWA we got the other day for a quarter inch of sleet. But with 2-3” of snow followed by stronger winds and very cold temps, they opt to leave it as nothing. Which will catch people who don’t pay close attention to forecasts off guard.

[james1976]

GFS looks a bit better for IA

[Tom]

12z NAM still looking good for N IL...widespread 4-5"...the lake band that forms off of LM looks rather interesting as it slowly pivots around.  It actually dumps snow all the way into C WI!  This is going to be the "wild card" feature and if someone can sit underneath this thing it could really add up totals.  The SLP basically stalls out near the southern tip of LM.

[WBadgersW]

Positive trends for once. I did not think I'd see 6" from this, but things are looking better.

[Money]

7+ towards MKE

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011412&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Tom]

D**n, 12z NAM picking up on a solid lake plume hugging the shoreline of WI/IL! #Bonus