Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

How far off was winter forecasts actually?

Accuracy.
- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1
WeatherArchive

Posted 14 January 2018 - 10:35 PM

WeatherArchive

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 311 posts
  • LocationStayton

So how far off were the forecasters?  I remember some of you all ranting about a NE Pacific Index Snow Whizard (Wizard?) came up with and I had a sneaky suspicion it wouldn't work out due to the lack of amplification up north due to many reasons I won't get into here. 

 

It's mid winter (in a meteorological sense) and it's time to see how we are doing. Feb is half way here and it's a big deal now just to reach normal!

 

What I am curious is how do you feel about the forecasts? Not the actual winter itself but the way your predictions turned out.  Do you think you were almost spot on or missed it by a mile? Is it the "craw?" or the claw? (Joke from Get Smart TV Show)

 

Should we just speak into the cone of silence? https://www.wouldyou.../cone_title.gif



#2
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:26 AM

Brian_in_Leavenworth

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 422 posts

Lack of amplification?  Seriously?  Were you paying attention to December?  Probably the most amplified ridge any of us have ever seen.  It was centered over the West instead of Alaska, so the East got record breaking cold.  So the problem for December at least was not lack of amplification.  Way too early to write off Winter, though obviously the cold January predictions are a bust.  Historically, some La Nina's, like 1988/1989, wait until February to deliver.  



#3
Deweydog

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:54 AM

Deweydog

    Forum Fantastic

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15484 posts
  • LocationHockinson, WA
For many reasons I won't get into here, winter forecasts was 3.54 nautical miles off to the SSW.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#4
happ

Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:33 AM

happ

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5165 posts
  • LocationRancho San Rafael [ele: 910'] °

La Nina can be as precisely dry as this winter has been so far.  Record-breaking values for lack of rain that were not forecast in long range predictions for California.   



#5
snow_wizard

Posted 19 January 2018 - 10:23 PM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

  • Mods
  • 13673 posts
  • LocationCovington, WA

Isn't it a bit early for this?


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#6
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 19 January 2018 - 10:41 PM

Dan the Weatherman

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1495 posts
  • LocationOrange, CA

La Nina can be as precisely dry as this winter has been so far.  Record-breaking values for lack of rain that were not forecast in long range predictions for California.   

 

This winter to date has been unusually dry for La Nina standards in Socal. Only having one storm of note to this point is absolutely pathetic even for Socal. Hopefully we can get some decent late season storms that bring up our totals.


  • happ likes this

#7
WeatherArchive

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:04 PM

WeatherArchive

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 311 posts
  • LocationStayton

it's now Feb and warmer then ever.



#8
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:51 PM

Brian_in_Leavenworth

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 422 posts

it's now Feb and warmer then ever.

It's now February and colder than ever.


  • Phil likes this