1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[Tom]

The system that I've been anticipating for weeks to develop around the 21st is finally on the horizon. Models are somewhat agreeing of a strong storm system ejecting out into the Plains and then tracking towards the GL's. Knowing how this system performed in previous cycles I'm inclined to believe this will be a large scale system. Who will cash in? Spread the wealth? So much to iron out in the days to come.

Let's discuss....

 

It's another intense battle between the GFS & Euro...will the Europeans come back to defeat the Americans??? Or will the Americans tack on another win....????

[gabel23]

Pretty good agreement this far out by all the models. Will be fun to track! 

[Money]

If this goes bad I’m blaming Tom

[St Paul Storm]

Tom, I think you said it in the Jan thread. This is all going to come down to where the high pressure sets up and how strong it is. There’s going to be a storm somewhere. Just a matter of seeing if this thing cuts or not. Fun tracking ahead.

[CentralNebWeather]

It is good that the NWS office out of Hastings was talking about it this morning.  Will be interesting to read their afternoon disco.  

[bud2380]

12z GEFS

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2018011512/MW/GEFSMW_prec_snens_210.png

[Money]

Gfs coming in nw this run by a good chunk

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gfs coming in nw this run by a good chunk

GFS says hold my beer.  Not so fast lol.

[bud2380]

it's just a tick NW this run vs. 12z on the snow fields anyways.  

[Craig-OmahaWX]

it's just a tick NW this run vs. 12z on the snow fields anyways.  

The low is a tad more northwest but the precip shield doesn't respond so its like it doesn't even matter lol.

[Money]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018011518&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=168

 

GB area destroyed

 

Low tracks through northern IL and up to Milwaukee

[bud2380]

the biggest difference i'm seeing is the snow on the back side has a more northeast placement to it, and on the 12z it was more stretched ENE.  Amounts maybe a tad lower this run. Overall pretty similar considering it's > 144 hours.  

[Tony]

Actually I thought this was going to end up worse so not that bad really.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011518/162/sn10_acc.us_c.png

[Money]

the biggest difference i'm seeing is the snow on the back side has a more northeast placement to it, and on the 12z it was more stretched ENE. Amounts maybe a tad lower this run. Overall pretty similar considering it's > 144 hours.

 

Less blocking up north as well

 

There was a piece from the northern stream that lagged behind which kind of delayed the HP to its north

 

You can see it here

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018011518&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=126

 

12z already had it way east with HP building in behind it http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018011512&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=132

[bud2380]

here's the Kuchera snow map.  A couple inches of this in WI is from other systems.  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011518/168/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

Looks like ratios are around 10:1.  Some places like Cedar Rapids are even less than that.  I live directly between the 6.3" and 1.8" #'s in Eastern  Iowa on that map.  

[bud2380]

Nice right angle on the GFS directly over my county keeping me as rain.  

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011518/156/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

lot of moisture here.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011518/180/qpf_048h.us_mw.png

[james1976]

Gulf should be open for business. Someone will cash in.

Thats a pretty narrow snow band.

[james1976]

DMX feeling very confident and already going with likelies and some categoricals:

 

By Saturday a large 500 mb trough will have developed over the

western U.S., with an attendant surface cyclone developing over

the southern High Plains around the Oklahoma panhandle, and an

inverted surface trough stretching northeastward across parts of

Missouri, Iowa and Illinois. During the day Saturday clouds will

thicken near the surface trough and some light rain may fall, but

no impacts are anticipated. However, from Saturday night through

Sunday night the trough will eject eastward across our region and

deepen fairly rapidly. This will lead to increasing precipitation

chances spreading across Iowa and we now have likelies and even

some categoricals going from Sunday into Sunday night. Of course

at this range there is much uncertainty regarding precipitation

types and amounts, but the nearby location of the inverted surface

trough, as well as forecast temperatures and soundings, support a

rain/snow mix likely changing to snow later in the event as the

cyclone moves by. We will be watching this system through the

coming week as solutions coalesce.

[Money]

GFs ensembles

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018011518&fh=156

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings not jumping to any conclusions. Will wait for several more days to see trends.

[Tabitha]

Absolutely no doubt in my mind that this is going to shift well north in the 0z suite.

 

Reasoning: The ridge of high pressure over the western Pacific at 12z was expansive and all-encompassing; but at 18z the Aleutian Low has migrated from the Gulf of Alaska down towards the Pacific Northwest Coast.  Consequently, the huge Canadian anticyclone sitting over the Praire Provinces of Canada, rather than building down into Montana and the western Dakotas; will be shunted off to the east; moving down towards Ontario & Upper Michigan....there are hints of this already; for when you compare the placement of the 540 line at 12z vs 18z, a significant northeast displacement is readily apparent.  This will allow broad low pressure to develop in the Colorado / Wyoming vicinity...and, as I wrote; everything will shift off to the north & west.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm worried about this thinning out similar to last week's storm. It's certainly trending narrower.

[snowstorm83]

Yeah I'd love to see warnings more than 2 counties wide

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I'm worried about this thinning out similar to last week's storm. It's certainly trending narrower.

I always worry about a storm completely falling apart as we get closer. Always a possibility.

[Tabitha]

Absolutely no doubt in my mind that this is going to shift well north in the 0z suite.

 

Reasoning: The ridge of high pressure over the western Pacific at 12z was expansive and all-encompassing; but at 18z the Aleutian Low has migrated from the Gulf of Alaska down towards the Pacific Northwest Coast.  Consequently, the huge Canadian anticyclone sitting over the Praire Provinces of Canada, rather than building down into Montana and the western Dakotas; will be shunted off to the east; moving down towards Ontario & Upper Michigan....there are hints of this already; for when you compare the placement of the 540 line at 12z vs 18z, a significant northeast displacement is readily apparent.  This will allow broad low pressure to develop in the Colorado / Wyoming vicinity...and, as I wrote; everything will shift off to the north & west.

 

Exactly like I said it would...the 0z German DWD ICON went way, way north with rain up into Duluth Minnesota and all of the UP of Michigan.

[bud2380]

GFS cutting through eastern Iowa this run.

[bud2380]

SLP tracks to around keokuk and then maybe just east of the quad cities. Snow band shifted north again from 18z. Canadian doesn’t have much of a system.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Exactly like I said it would...the 0z German DWD ICON went way, way north with rain up into Duluth Minnesota and all of the UP of Michigan.

Thats not going to happen with the amount of blocking this winter lol. Plus before anyone even tries and mention the warm air before this system so its going to go north argument is wrong..look what happened last week the snow hit Kansas and we were in the 50s the day before.

[bud2380]

Solid hit for Lincoln and Omaha to Rochester and la crosse then into central WI

[Tabitha]

Thats not going to happen with the amount of blocking this winter lol. Plus before anyone even tries and mention the warm air before this system so its going to go north argument is wrong..look what happened last week the snow hit Kansas and we were in the 50s the day before.

 

What does what happened "last week" have to do with today?  Each weather system is an independent entity; and conditions and pressure patterns that influence it are not static and inert; but rather dynamic and in a state of constant flux.

 

Other than saying I am "wrong" w/o any genuine reasoning beyond invoking the concept of "blocking"; provide a good reason why a northerly track is "out of the question".

 

Instead of admitting that I gave a sound explanation for what the models would show a few hours later; you just dismiss everything I wrote in the most cavalier fashion.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

What the hell is wrong with the CMC. This thing is not going as north as Tabitha says or would like lol. The only other option I could see happening is it going east OR more likely to turn into just a trough moving west to east with just a trailing cold front and a passing line of showers / snow showers.

[Madtown]

....frontal passage...its more than a trend at this point

[Hawkeye]

UK is a cutter across Iowa.

[Money]

What does what happened "last week" have to do with today?  Each weather system is an independent entity; and conditions and pressure patterns that influence it are not static and inert; but rather dynamic and in a state of constant flux.

 

Other than saying I am "wrong" w/o any genuine reasoning beyond invoking the concept of "blocking"; provide a good reason why a northerly track is "out of the question".

 

Instead of admitting that I gave a sound explanation for what the models would show a few hours later; you just dismiss everything I wrote in the most cavalier fashion.

Your post was excellent tbh

[Craig-OmahaWX]

What happened last week has everything to do with what has happened the entire winter. That's called "trends". And people wonder why we don't get big snows anymore because its a "trend". And the trend for the winter has been for models to eventually over do the northerly track of systems only for them to shift south then weaken then turn into a fast moving cold front / wave.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Anyways, awaiting the GEFS. Should be interesting

[Tabitha]

What happened last week has everything to do with what has happened the entire winter. That's called "trends". And people wonder why we don't get big snows anymore because its a "trend". And the trend for the winter has been for models to eventually over do the northerly track of systems only for them to shift south then weaken then turn into a fast moving cold front / wave.

 

Assuming arguendo we follow that line of thinking to its logical conclusion; if it snows this week; it must snow next week; ergo it must snow the week thereafter and every week thereafter straight into July...for it IS A TREND!

 

Thus it shall snow ad infinitum, in perpetuity and 4ever and ever Amen!