1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[hlcater]

I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........

Wait. Is OAX hyping a storm? Better cancel the storm before they get too exited and injure themselves.

[Minny_Weather]

I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........

Lol didn't they learn from last week to not hype anything? Cuz they're hyping up this one even more. The last storm had MUCH more potential at this range for us than this current one..

[Minny_Weather]

Seriously, if people keep hyping up duds then it'll turn into the boy who cried wolf. Even when people were hyping up the last one there was never a legitimate potential for more than 6".

[Snowlover76]

I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........

kiss of death right there.  

[Minny_Weather]

Okay, I hate this forecaster from OAX. Literally looks at Euro then acts like whatever Euro says 5 days out is a done deal. This isn't the first time he's done this, either. He did this multiple times last year.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Both ECM/GFS continue to advertise possible precip event Saturday
night through Sunday evening in association surface low lifting out
of the southern High Plains into the Mid MS Vly region. As of now,
good agreement that brunt of any snow accumulation will be found
over the northern CWA, with a rain or rain/snow mix, generally along
and south of the I-80 corridor. Otherwise, attendant cold front
sliding in will push max temps back down into the low/mid 30s
next Sunday and Monday.

[gosaints]

Okay, I hate this forecaster from OAX. Literally looks at Euro then acts like whatever Euro says 5 days out is a done deal. This isn't the first time he's done this, either. He did this multiple times last year.

Not trying to cause any problems, but what should have the forecaster said?  He outlines the most likely scenario at this point.  Its not different than what La Crosse.  Basically there is probably gonna be a storm, but dont know where it will snow and where it will rain.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is looking like a GFS sapling right now. SLP is in about the same spot. Storm up in Canada isn't exactly making for much blocking.

[Minny_Weather]

Not trying to cause any problems, but what should have the forecaster said?  He outlines the most likely scenario at this point.  Its not different than what La Crosse.  Basically there is probably gonna be a storm, but dont know where it will snow and where it will rain.

Maybe added that there's uncertainty instead of saying flat out that the brunt of the accumulation WILL be in the Northern areas? 

[St Paul Storm]

The OAX forecaster explicitly says ‘as of now....’. What he said is what the models are showing as of now. I’m confused what the issue is.

[Minny_Weather]

The OAX forecaster explicitly says ‘as of now....’. What he said is what the models are showing as of now. I’m confused what the issue is.

Yeah that's the world's vaguest way of saying that there's uncertainty. If I did nothing but read AFDs for a bit more insight, I wouldn't be able to tell just based off of that.

 

Another overall issue with them in general, I know OAX isn't the only one to do this, is lack of real insight. No real met terms are used for anything. AFDs are meant for explaining the reasoning behind their forecasts, and what theirs are are summaries of their forecasts. Some offices are better about that than others.

[centralweather44]

Temps continue to trend warmer and warmer for Saturday here in Lincoln

[Money]

Yeah that's the world's vaguest way of saying that there's uncertainty. If I did nothing but read AFDs for a bit more insight, I wouldn't be able to tell just based off of that.

 

Another overall issue with them in general, I know OAX isn't the only one to do this, is lack of real insight. No real met terms are used for anything. AFDs are meant for explaining the reasoning behind their forecasts, and what theirs are are summaries of their forecasts. Some offices are better about that than others.

It’s gonna change anyways so who cares?

[Money]

18z gfs is weaker and farther south so far through hr 111

[hlcater]

18z gfs is weaker and farther south so far through hr 111

High pressure also built into canada quicker. This run is probable to shift southward as a result of this combo of factors.

[hlcater]

High pressure also built into canada quicker. This run is probable to shift southward as a result of this combo of factors.

Or not. Or yes.

[St Paul Storm]

It’s definitely not weaker by 132.

[Money]

Or not. Or yes.

Snow is def farther south but it was a good step in the right direction

 

HP def farther south and more west. Even a good thump of snow here before the rain

[gosaints]

4.5 more days... Onshore Saturday night?!?!

[Money]

Ends up cutting towards Milwaukee

 

gosaints crush job

[Money]

12-18 from LSE to GB

 

10.9 here lol

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011618&fh=144&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Much different look with the HP

[hlcater]

12-18 from LSE to GB

 

10.9 here lol

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011618&fh=144&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Much different look with the HP

It also dug more at the beginning of the run, so despite the more intense low, the run actually shifted southward.

[Money]

It also dug more at the beginning of the run, so despite the more intense low, the run actually shifted southward.

Yup it dug more and the northern stream shifted out faster which allowed the high to build in quicker. Could see that pretty early on.

[bud2380]

i just need a 100 mile shift due south, and I'm golden...  but model mayhem once again.  

[bud2380]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011618/162/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

I find it funny that people think this track is locked in.

[Minny_Weather]

It’s gonna change anyways so who cares?

Exactly. It's gonna change. Not sure how that's relevant to what I said.

[Money]

Exactly. It's gonna change. Not sure how that's relevant to what I said.

Who said I was talking about you?

[Minny_Weather]

Besides the obvious North/South shifts, another key for Lincoln scoring is if this thing slows down a bit. Cuz 18Z GFS is a bit unsettling in that we're right on the Western edge of the heavier band.

[Minny_Weather]

Who said I was talking about you?

Well you quoted my post so it was a bit implied.

[Money]

Well you quoted my post so it was a bit implied.

I didn’t quote anyone when I said that

[Minny_Weather]

I didn’t quote anyone when I said that

[Minny_Weather]

Still a mixed bag on the GEFS. Majority are taking the Dakotas solution, though.

[james1976]

Yup.....HP gonna be a big factor as always with cutters.

[bud2380]

DVN keeps mentioning a back door cold front that will turn into a warm front and where that lines up will be key.

[Minny_Weather]

FSD is being conservative. I know I would be, too.

 

 

 

The other concern this period is the potential precipitation
system for the late weekend. MOST GEFS solutions as well as all
deterministic models now show an upper wave and associated cyclone
moving from the Rockies toward the Great Lakes. While many models
are now showing over 0.25" of QPF with this system - where that
precipitation will fall is very uncertain. While confidence has
increased that there will be at least light precipitation in
northwestern Iowa, confidence for any precipitation is lower in
southeastern South Dakota. And confidence for heavier
precipitation remains low across the entire area. So it remains
far too early to talk about any snowfall amounts. Whether this
system does have a significant impact on the region or not,
temperatures early next will be around seasonal normals in the
20s.

[CentralNebWeather]

What concerns me about the potential storm is temperatures. NWS Hastings mentioned mixing during the day Sunday would sure cut down accumulations. Still early to see how it plays out.

[centralweather44]

What concerns me about the potential storm is temperatures. NWS Hastings mentioned mixing during the day Sunday would sure cut down accumulations. Still early to see how it plays out.

I agree. Been saying it all along but nobody else seems to be worried about it. Temps have continued to trend upwards over the past couple days And with minimal snow pack that isn’t going to help either. Especially after Friday we will have zero snow here in the eastern part of the state.

[Jaycee]

I'm not even really watching yet. Mainly cuz I'm about to get hammered in the mountains of Canada:P but that last storm really got to me. I can't invest time like that again only to get screwed 24 hours out.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Those who say they arent watching it are watching it. Dont try and fool us lol. Even if your just reading this post youve seen model images we have posted lol

[Craig-OmahaWX]

And also too anyone who says its going north cause of snow pack loss is bogus lol. We lost all our snow last week and the storm hit south in kansas