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1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

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#101
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:36 AM

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f***** Norfolk. Snow thieves every year.

Is it looking more South to anyone? Precip shield looked every so slightly further South.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#102
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:42 AM

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SLp is where similar to 00z correct? At least it doesnt look any further north than it was yesterday.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#103
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:44 AM

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SLp is where similar to 00z correct? At least it doesnt look any further north than it was yesterday.


Yeah it's literally the exact same track down here at least. Idk what I was seeing.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#104
Stacsh

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:48 AM

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I take it Southern Michigan is out at this point?  :(  



#105
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:48 AM

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Accumulated precip. Euro smash job.

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#106
Tabitha

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:52 AM

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I think the major shifts (more than 100 miles north or south) are now over and what the 12z European showed will be fairly close to the final outcome (again, within 100 miles either way).

 

The blizzard track from NE Nebraska through SE SD (including Sioux Falls)...up through Minneapolis...then the Arrowhead of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and, of course the UP of Michigan has considerable historical climatological precedent...as many, many storms have taken that path.

 

It is still possible that Lincoln, Omaha and, to a lesser extent, Des Moines could fall under the heavy snow band...but I would not expect anything south and east of there.



#107
james1976

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:55 AM

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This is why i prefer clippers. Cutters rarely pan out for mby.

#108
Snowlover76

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:01 AM

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Lol. Another fail

#109
Tabitha

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:05 AM

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Lol. Another fail

 

You are 75 miles from heavy snow.  You don't think 75 miles is within the model's margin for error a full 5 days out?



#110
Snowlover76

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:07 AM

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You are 75 miles from heavy snow. You don't think 75 miles is within the model's margin for error a full 5 days out?


It's over

#111
Tabitha

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:08 AM

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It's over

 

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=V8lT1o0sDwI


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#112
WBadgersW

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:09 AM

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I take it Southern Michigan is out at this point? :(


No, Its not looking great though. Stranger things have happened.

#113
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:09 AM

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It's over


Dude you are such a troll. It's still 5 days out.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#114
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:11 AM

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I think the major shifts (more than 100 miles north or south) are now over and what the 12z European showed will be fairly close to the final outcome (again, within 100 miles either way).

The blizzard track from NE Nebraska through SE SD (including Sioux Falls)...up through Minneapolis...then the Arrowhead of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and, of course the UP of Michigan has considerable historical climatological precedent...as many, many storms have taken that path.

It is still possible that Lincoln, Omaha and, to a lesser extent, Des Moines could fall under the heavy snow band...but I would not expect anything south and east of there.


I agree. Besides a couple of minor ones,models are coming to a general consensus. Minor shifts will still happen as additional data comes out.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#115
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:15 AM

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It's over

Nice contribution.  Storm cancel


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#116
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:49 AM

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Euro has had a west bias all winter with storms early on not to mention how strong they make them

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#117
james1976

Posted 16 January 2018 - 12:10 PM

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Stronger high pressure to the north would help but no models are showin much of that.

#118
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 12:39 PM

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Even here it doesn't look to cold during the storm this weekend.  If it materializes, it would be a fairly wet snow that with strong winds could cause travel concerns.  When the storm departs it is not Arctic Cold that follows.



#119
BrianJK

Posted 16 January 2018 - 12:51 PM

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Still days away but not looking so hot for Chicago and NWI peeps!!!

 

I think we have a decent chance of thunderstorms.  Pretty typical for January around these parts :unsure:



#120
gabel23

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:05 PM

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I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........

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#121
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:06 PM

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I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........

Wait. Is OAX hyping a storm? Better cancel the storm before they get too exited and injure themselves.


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#122
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:07 PM

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I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........

Lol didn't they learn from last week to not hype anything? Cuz they're hyping up this one even more. The last storm had MUCH more potential at this range for us than this current one..


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#123
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:09 PM

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Seriously, if people keep hyping up duds then it'll turn into the boy who cried wolf. Even when people were hyping up the last one there was never a legitimate potential for more than 6".


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#124
Snowlover76

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:14 PM

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I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........

kiss of death right there.  



#125
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:16 PM

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Okay, I hate this forecaster from OAX. Literally looks at Euro then acts like whatever Euro says 5 days out is a done deal. This isn't the first time he's done this, either. He did this multiple times last year.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Both ECM/GFS continue to advertise possible precip event Saturday
night through Sunday evening in association surface low lifting out
of the southern High Plains into the Mid MS Vly region. As of now,
good agreement that brunt of any snow accumulation will be found
over the northern CWA, with a rain or rain/snow mix, generally along
and south of the I-80 corridor. Otherwise, attendant cold front
sliding in will push max temps back down into the low/mid 30s
next Sunday and Monday.

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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#126
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:19 PM

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Okay, I hate this forecaster from OAX. Literally looks at Euro then acts like whatever Euro says 5 days out is a done deal. This isn't the first time he's done this, either. He did this multiple times last year.

Not trying to cause any problems, but what should have the forecaster said?  He outlines the most likely scenario at this point.  Its not different than what La Crosse.  Basically there is probably gonna be a storm, but dont know where it will snow and where it will rain.


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#127
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:28 PM

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NAM is looking like a GFS sapling right now. SLP is in about the same spot. Storm up in Canada isn't exactly making for much blocking.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#128
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:29 PM

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Not trying to cause any problems, but what should have the forecaster said?  He outlines the most likely scenario at this point.  Its not different than what La Crosse.  Basically there is probably gonna be a storm, but dont know where it will snow and where it will rain.

Maybe added that there's uncertainty instead of saying flat out that the brunt of the accumulation WILL be in the Northern areas? 


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#129
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:30 PM

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The OAX forecaster explicitly says ‘as of now....’. What he said is what the models are showing as of now. I’m confused what the issue is.

#130
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:37 PM

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The OAX forecaster explicitly says ‘as of now....’. What he said is what the models are showing as of now. I’m confused what the issue is.

Yeah that's the world's vaguest way of saying that there's uncertainty. If I did nothing but read AFDs for a bit more insight, I wouldn't be able to tell just based off of that.

 

Another overall issue with them in general, I know OAX isn't the only one to do this, is lack of real insight. No real met terms are used for anything. AFDs are meant for explaining the reasoning behind their forecasts, and what theirs are are summaries of their forecasts. Some offices are better about that than others.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#131
centralweather44

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:50 PM

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Temps continue to trend warmer and warmer for Saturday here in Lincoln

#132
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Yeah that's the world's vaguest way of saying that there's uncertainty. If I did nothing but read AFDs for a bit more insight, I wouldn't be able to tell just based off of that.

Another overall issue with them in general, I know OAX isn't the only one to do this, is lack of real insight. No real met terms are used for anything. AFDs are meant for explaining the reasoning behind their forecasts, and what theirs are are summaries of their forecasts. Some offices are better about that than others.


It’s gonna change anyways so who cares?

#133
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:01 PM

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18z gfs is weaker and farther south so far through hr 111

#134
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:05 PM

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18z gfs is weaker and farther south so far through hr 111

High pressure also built into canada quicker. This run is probable to shift southward as a result of this combo of factors.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#135
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:08 PM

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High pressure also built into canada quicker. This run is probable to shift southward as a result of this combo of factors.

Or not. Or yes.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#136
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:09 PM

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It’s definitely not weaker by 132.

#137
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:10 PM

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Or not. Or yes.


Snow is def farther south but it was a good step in the right direction

HP def farther south and more west. Even a good thump of snow here before the rain

#138
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:11 PM

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4.5 more days... Onshore Saturday night?!?!

#139
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:12 PM

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Ends up cutting towards Milwaukee

gosaints crush job

#140
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:15 PM

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12-18 from LSE to GB

10.9 here lol

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Much different look with the HP

#141
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:17 PM

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12-18 from LSE to GB

10.9 here lol

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Much different look with the HP

It also dug more at the beginning of the run, so despite the more intense low, the run actually shifted southward.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#142
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:18 PM

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It also dug more at the beginning of the run, so despite the more intense low, the run actually shifted southward.


Yup it dug more and the northern stream shifted out faster which allowed the high to build in quicker. Could see that pretty early on.

#143
bud2380

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:41 PM

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i just need a 100 mile shift due south, and I'm golden...  but model mayhem once again.  



#144
bud2380

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:42 PM

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snku_acc.us_mw.png


  • Snowshoe likes this

#145
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:42 PM

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I find it funny that people think this track is locked in.

#146
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:42 PM

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It’s gonna change anyways so who cares?


Exactly. It's gonna change. Not sure how that's relevant to what I said.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#147
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:50 PM

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Exactly. It's gonna change. Not sure how that's relevant to what I said.


Who said I was talking about you?

#148
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:51 PM

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Besides the obvious North/South shifts, another key for Lincoln scoring is if this thing slows down a bit. Cuz 18Z GFS is a bit unsettling in that we're right on the Western edge of the heavier band.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#149
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:52 PM

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Who said I was talking about you?


Well you quoted my post so it was a bit implied.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#150
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:53 PM

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Well you quoted my post so it was a bit implied.


I didn’t quote anyone when I said that