1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[james1976]

SL76 model is showing 0" here. Complete dry slot the entire time.

 

Is that a model???? WTF lol

[Minny_Weather]

Is that a model???? WTF lol

Yeah. It's always horrible for Lincoln for some reason. I don't think it's (he's) shown any snow for Lincoln ever. 

[gosaints]

Both NAMS warmer aloft here adding to intrigue

[Minny_Weather]

Dry slot is more pronounced on NAMily. Now that I think about it, that's not horribly unrealistic. Yeesh.

[Minny_Weather]

I don't see OAX upgrading any WWAs. They tend to stick with the most conservative model runs for everything, and these NAM runs certainly won't do anything to discourage that.

[gabel23]

Nice update by Hastings NWS, they mention the storm slowing down and the dreaded dry slot...but overall things are going as planned. 

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

No chgs to warning/advisory on this shift.

Main fcst message: patience. It`s getting a later start than
expected but everything is coming together. Hang in there. 88D
winds at 700 mb show the low is still over SW KS. As the low
tracks ENE across KS tonight...the commahead/wrap-around snow will
move in.

Based on trends in satellite/radar loops with contd support from
the HRRR...don`t expect much snow tonight in the Tri-Cities and
generally E of Hwy 183. Dry slot is a major player over a much
larger portion of the CWA than we expected just 24 hrs ago. These
are the details that can make or break a fcst at any one location.

The current position of the band is where it will spend most of
the night.

This band will finally become mobile after 3 AM and will gradually
progress from W-E across the CWA. Snow should be done W of Hwy 281
by 12 PM and Hwy 81 by 3-4 PM.

It is important to emphasis: the brunt of the heavy snow will be
affecting the Tri-Cities in the 4-11 AM time frame...including
during the AM commute. The morning commute envisioned very bad.
We do not recommend travel.

Snowfall rates: around 1" per hr at times with highest chance of
persistent high rates N of I-80...where we expect the heaviest
accums.

This will be the heaviest snowstorm out of the winter thus far.

Snowfall Axis: heaviest (8-16") along and N of a line from Alma-
Hastings-York. S of that line less. The gradient to locations that
have significant snow vs none at all could be very very tight...
maybe the width of a county.

Winds: a major problem and that is the reason for the Blzd Wrng.
Increasing 25-35 mph with gusts 40-50 mph 12 AM-3 PM.

Drifting: 3-5 footers. Numerous county roads will be impassable.

Since temps were too warm for frzg drzl...heavy snow and blizzard
conds are the main focus. This fcstr recommends you should be
where you can be safe and comfortable by now...and plan to stay
there thru 3 PM tomorrow from the Tri-Cities N and W...and thru 6
PM tomorrow eve S and E of the Tri-Cities.

Impacts: dangerous travel with significant delays via land and
air. Near zero vsby once the heavy snow starts falling and even
after due to the high winds.

Travel: Suggest no travel...but if you must...take it slow and
have blankets/water/food and an emergency kit in case an accident
halts travel.

This will be a high impact event. Closures and cancellations are
numerous. Ck with local media.

Please relay snow accum reports to us via social media. Pics with
ruler or tape measure will be especially helpful. Be sure you`re
measuring in an area that is representative of the average (no
drifts). We realize most of this will fall at night...but if
you`re up and can safely do so...reporting when you reach 6" would
be very helpful. Otherwise...we`ll wait for storm total amts once
the snow is over.

[NH4NU]

I don't see OAX upgrading any WWAs. They tend to stick with the most conservative model runs for everything, and these NAM runs certainly won't do anything to discourage that.

I wouldn't rule it out. With DT Lincoln on north along with Douglas/Sarpy (major populated) counties falling into 6"+ category, depending on how much they leverage this run, could upgrade some counties to at least a WSWarning.

[Minny_Weather]

I wouldn't rule it out. With DT Lincoln on north along with Douglas/Sarpy (major populated) counties falling into 6"+ category, depending on how much they leverage this run, could upgrade some counties to at least a WSWarning.

Oh yeah Douglas/Sarpy should be upgraded. Lancaster I'm not so sure about that. They seem to dismiss any aggressive model runs as "outliers." They always have.

[St Paul Storm]

WHAT? NAM showed 0.5” snow here on the 18z.

[Minny_Weather]

WHAT? NAM showed 0.5” snow here on the 18z.

Welcome back bud.

[gabel23]

All updated short range models absolutely go bananas for my area! I'm thinking 12+ is easily within reach, I can't wait! I hope you guys all have the same luck. 

[gosaints]

WHAT? NAM showed 0.5” snow here on the 18z.

Your ceiling is so high

[Jaycee]

WHAT? NAM showed 0.5” snow here on the 18z.

 

You might be pretty close with that 4-6" prediction. D**n thing won't budge to get LMK on those crazy totals

[Minny_Weather]

You might be pretty close with that 4-6" prediction. d**n thing won't budge to get LMK on those crazy totals

If models don't budge maybe radar will.

[St Paul Storm]

Your ceiling is so high

I don’t know about that. The stars never align here. And when they do, it’s always on the other side of the street.

[Jaycee]

If models don't budge maybe radar will.

 

Fingers crossed my man.

[NH4NU]

Latest HRRR not great for Omaha, a little better for Lincoln which I am sure will all continue to flip flop. 

 

RAP has trended that way as well. 

Edited January 22, 2018 by NH4NU

[Jaycee]

Latest HRRR not great for Omaha, a little better for Lincoln which I am sure will all continue to flip flop. 

 

RAP has trended that way as well.

 

 

RAP drills Lincoln. I hope it's right, none of the other models do.

[jcwxguy]

sref plumes are interesting for lnk

[bud2380]

4" already in North Platte.  6.5" in Chase, NE (wherever that is).  

[Stormgeek]

Are models even useful at this range or is it more trend watching?

[CentralNebWeather]

4" already in North Platte. 6.5" in Chase, NE (wherever that is).

Chase County- Southwest Nebraska. North of Goodland Kansas

[gosaints]

Are models even useful at this range or is it more trend watching?

You shouldn't ignore them especially where you are at. Still a ways until go up there. Start paying attention to where the surface heads

 

Edit based on black white maps rgem looks somewhat similar to 18z

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Link to omaha sref plumes?

[Jaycee]

sref plumes are interesting for lnk

I saw that. No one knows what’s going to happen here. I hate it, this is stressful af, but I’m scared we’re too south to get the monster totals. I’m sure up near Raymond will do well.

[jcwxguy]

Link to omaha sref plumes?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

 

 

(zoom in on map and click on omaha )

[james1976]

Stop complaining.
34 and rain imby.

[bud2380]

Chase County- Southwest Nebraska. North of Goodland Kansas

Speaking of Goodland, KS, why does a town of 4,000 have an NWS office?  Goodland services 19 measley counties.  DVN by comparison has 36 and Des Moines has about 50.  In this day and age, they could easily consolidate a lot of offices.  

[NEJeremy]

I'm not liking the trend of the short term(HRRR/RAP) models for Omaha. For one it keeps slowing this d**n thing down even more. It's almost stationary over southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri for a good chunk of the runs, which keeps us drier/warmer/ and rainier longer. When the low finally starts moving, the deformation band on the backside is weakening pretty good. Such a sharp cutoff to this thing. I suppose we're still a ways out on the short term models to know for sure how accurate they will be.... Both 0Z NAM runs were still good for us though

[jcwxguy]

02z rap is good for lnk

[NEJeremy]

I like this too for the plumes among other things: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml

[Tabitha]

I spent the last half hour crying hysterically over the non-storm here.

 

Please someone; say something kind or sympathetic to me; as I am a woman on the verge of a nervous breakdown.

 

Even though I only saw 1.1 inches of snow from the storm yesterday and cried myself to sleep; I still hope that the people in Omaha and Lincoln and other nearby areas have a nice, large snowfall tomorrow.

 

Wishing you good luck.

[Stormgeek]

Is this thing even moving? I see it spinning with a few fingers into MN, but the large shield seems nearly stationary.

[Minny_Weather]

Is this thing even moving? I see it spinning with a few fingers into MN, but the large shield seems nearly stationary.

Yeah it's not moving lol. Let's hope this thing gets progress. Don't want it to tire itself out before it gets out here.

[bud2380]

The surface low just seemed to meander over Kansas for the last several hours, and just recently started to take shape and head ENE.  it's now just SW of Kansas City at 1002mb.  The snow is well to the northwest of the low.  Based on surface maps, looks like an inverted trough is supplying most of the moisture.  

[WBadgersW]

It feels good getting the salt of these roads. Nasty stuff.

[Stormgeek]

LOL HRRR is being... HRRR. It has this think sitting in basically the same spot for 8 hours.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX is updating right now. Let's see if they update any headlines.

[jcwxguy]

OAX is updating right now. Let's see if they update any headlines.

how do you know they are updating?

[Minny_Weather]

how do you know they are updating?

Talked to someone who has OAX contacts.