1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[NH4NU]

New updates coming in from the NWS. New models showing increased snow amounts in #LNK. Updates to how much are coming soon. #NEwx -- Twitter

[james1976]

NE will make up for the lame recent winters. Let it sit and spin. You guys deserve it.
​The slow meandering reminds me of a closed Low. Models suck with closed L tracks.
Last minute surprises?

[FarmerRick]

Stop complaining.

34 and rain imby.

Exactamundo!!! Everyone should just enjoy the ride...!!

[Minny_Weather]

Finally we have a met on our side. Rusty Lord from WOWT has us in 3-6" now.

 

EDIT: Dean Wysocki has jumped on the bandwagon putting part of Lincoln in a 4-6" zone.

[NH4NU]

GFS is bad for Omaha. Is this considered an outlier at this point? 

[Minny_Weather]

Lincoln is now included in the Blizzard Warning.

[gabel23]

Congrats Lincoln, your in a blizzard warning!!!!

[NH4NU]

Wow Lancaster County goes under Blizzard Warning

[gosaints]

GFS is bad for Omaha. Is this considered an outlier at this point?

Rgem and gfs both are. NAMS a little better

[NEJeremy]

Omaha is now in Winter Storm Warning

[jcwxguy]

blizzard warning for lincoln now

[St Paul Storm]

GFS a tick west with the snow shield by about 15 miles. Makes all the difference.

[gabel23]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
950 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.A strong storm system will move from the central plains tonight
and into the mid Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. Snow is
expected to begin later this evening in northeast Nebraska, and
spread southeast tonight through Monday. Snow will become heavy
late tonight into Monday morning across parts of eastern Nebraska
north of I-80 and extend into parts of west central and northwest
Iowa. Strong north winds of 25 to 45 mph will develop overnight
and continue into Monday across the area. The strong winds will
result in blizzard conditions and nearly impossible travel in
much of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Farther to the
southeast, a wintry mix of precipitation including sleet and
freezing rain will turn to snow by Monday morning.

NEZ065-066-078-221200-
/O.UPG.KOAX.WW.Y.0003.180122T0600Z-180123T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KOAX.BZ.W.0001.180122T0900Z-180123T0000Z/
Seward-Lancaster-Saline-
Including the cities of Seward, Milford, Lincoln, Crete,
and Wilber
950 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
dangerous to impossible, including during the evening commute
on Monday. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with
localized amounts up to 7 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Seward, Lancaster and Saline Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is bad for Omaha. Is this considered an outlier at this point? 

I don't pay attention to GFS or Euro right before a storm. Both are bad in the very short range.

[Snowlover76]

im gonna stay negative so i dont jinx it 

[Stormgeek]

GFS has an area where it appears 5 miles has a 7 inch gradient. This is not possible to forecast. I know globals are bad close in, but still.....

[Minny_Weather]

If this POS will move East at some point then we can get this show on the road. The precip shield is actually moving West.

[FarmerRick]

I don't pay attention to GFS or Euro right before a storm. Both are bad in the very short range.

 

 

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/6a/6acbf45c7fde7f40efb6f1561cd52d0eb62f70dff22602e3e096d215a7e79e84.jpg

[Naddan85]

I'm curious why OAX chose a WSW for Omaha and a BW for Lincoln. Are the winds really going to be that different?

[Minny_Weather]

I'm curious why OAX chose a WSW for Omaha and a BW for Lincoln. Are the winds really going to be that different?

Yeah I think that's weird too. I thought they'd go with a WSW in Lincoln as I don't think we'll be looking at persistent heavy snow.

[Naddan85]

Yeah I think that's weird too. I thought they'd go with a WSW in Lincoln as I don't think we'll be looking at persistent heavy snow.

 

It's like: why even bother placing TWO counties in a WSW when everything else is a BW. Ha! I'm just happy that we had this SE trend. Hoping for a good amount of snow throughout the day tomorrow!

[Snowlover76]

Yeah I think that's weird too. I thought they'd go with a WSW in Lincoln as I don't think we'll be looking at persistent heavy snow.

blowing snow is what triggers a blizzard warning. Doesnt matter if its -SN or +SN 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Holy crap! This model has almost 60 mph winds here...and 70 just west!

 

http://hopwrf.hopkinsschools.org/images_1/3km/00Z/wrfarw3-gustsfc-18.png

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings has dropped 7 inches off of totals. Now saying 4-7 inches to locally 11. Was 11-14” with locally 17. I am not even at 1 inch. Snow just stays west. Plus what I have is very wet.

[james1976]

Tight gradients are the worst. Or the eternal wait from rain/snow changeover. Hoping you guys score big.

[Jaycee]

Hastings has dropped 7 inches off of totals. Now saying 4-7 inches to locally 11. Was 11-14” with locally 17. I am not even at 1 inch. Snow just stays west. Plus what I have is very wet.

Uh oh....

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Most models have shown the drop off for central nebraska. Hoping we can all score from this. Just remember we are in a way better position then what we were watching last night.

[CentralNebWeather]

What is odd is their text blizzard warning update cut totals but new snowfall total map is 10-12 inches. I am confused.

[Minny_Weather]

This is what I was saying earlier. If it wastes energy farting around where it is now, it's not gonna produce here.

[Minny_Weather]

This is what I was saying earlier. If it wastes energy farting around where it is now, it's not gonna produce here.

Scratch this, I see what it's doing. It's spinning up more moisture off to the East (where we are) at CentralNeb's expense. Sorry bud. This is what you get for stealing the groundhog day blizzard

[CentralNebWeather]

Counties west of me having been getting hit hard for a long time. I think North Platte has to be close to 8 inches or more by now. They were 6.5” a few hours ago. Roads closed in Western Kansas with white outs.

[Andrew NE]

Yea north platte has been getting blasted.

[Andrew NE]

You can't even see anything from web cams out in north platte.

[Jaycee]

I cant deal with this. I think were gunna get 3" in lincoln tbh. Just dont like the trends. Im snowlovering so hard but ugh im just not hopeful:(

[Snowlover76]

I cant deal with this. I think were gunna get 3" in lincoln tbh. Just dont like the trends. Im snowlovering so hard but ugh im just not hopeful:(

im the same way.  Im sticking with 1-2" 

[Andrew NE]

I feel ya. I feel that temps and the process for the changeover is going to kill potential higher totals. Especially for OMA

[Minny_Weather]

Temps are fine here. In fact they're better than any model besides the cold biased NAM has them. Temps won't be the most of our issues.

 

At least not directly. Yes temps do affect ratios, and with temps possibly being above freezing when snow starts, we'll look at ratios pretty D**n close to 1:1.

[CentralNebWeather]

5 miles north of North Platte 10” according to local ABC Twitter and still snowing hard

[Minny_Weather]

Honestly, I'll take 5" from this and run with it. Better than what I was expecting from this storm leading up to it. I thought this would be another Norfolk gets everything and we get nothing, we lose, good day special similar to last year.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

RAP has all of Douglas County basically getting at least 6 inches. If we could just put the breaks on it that'd be great.