hlcater Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........Wait. Is OAX hyping a storm? Better cancel the storm before they get too exited and injure themselves. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........Lol didn't they learn from last week to not hype anything? Cuz they're hyping up this one even more. The last storm had MUCH more potential at this range for us than this current one.. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Seriously, if people keep hyping up duds then it'll turn into the boy who cried wolf. Even when people were hyping up the last one there was never a legitimate potential for more than 6". Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have never seen OAX post a graphic like this before........kiss of death right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Okay, I hate this forecaster from OAX. Literally looks at Euro then acts like whatever Euro says 5 days out is a done deal. This isn't the first time he's done this, either. He did this multiple times last year. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday)Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018Both ECM/GFS continue to advertise possible precip event Saturdaynight through Sunday evening in association surface low lifting outof the southern High Plains into the Mid MS Vly region. As of now,good agreement that brunt of any snow accumulation will be foundover the northern CWA, with a rain or rain/snow mix, generally alongand south of the I-80 corridor. Otherwise, attendant cold frontsliding in will push max temps back down into the low/mid 30snext Sunday and Monday. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Okay, I hate this forecaster from OAX. Literally looks at Euro then acts like whatever Euro says 5 days out is a done deal. This isn't the first time he's done this, either. He did this multiple times last year.Not trying to cause any problems, but what should have the forecaster said? He outlines the most likely scenario at this point. Its not different than what La Crosse. Basically there is probably gonna be a storm, but dont know where it will snow and where it will rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 NAM is looking like a GFS sapling right now. SLP is in about the same spot. Storm up in Canada isn't exactly making for much blocking. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Not trying to cause any problems, but what should have the forecaster said? He outlines the most likely scenario at this point. Its not different than what La Crosse. Basically there is probably gonna be a storm, but dont know where it will snow and where it will rain.Maybe added that there's uncertainty instead of saying flat out that the brunt of the accumulation WILL be in the Northern areas? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 The OAX forecaster explicitly says ‘as of now....’. What he said is what the models are showing as of now. I’m confused what the issue is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 The OAX forecaster explicitly says ‘as of now....’. What he said is what the models are showing as of now. I’m confused what the issue is.Yeah that's the world's vaguest way of saying that there's uncertainty. If I did nothing but read AFDs for a bit more insight, I wouldn't be able to tell just based off of that. Another overall issue with them in general, I know OAX isn't the only one to do this, is lack of real insight. No real met terms are used for anything. AFDs are meant for explaining the reasoning behind their forecasts, and what theirs are are summaries of their forecasts. Some offices are better about that than others. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Temps continue to trend warmer and warmer for Saturday here in Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yeah that's the world's vaguest way of saying that there's uncertainty. If I did nothing but read AFDs for a bit more insight, I wouldn't be able to tell just based off of that. Another overall issue with them in general, I know OAX isn't the only one to do this, is lack of real insight. No real met terms are used for anything. AFDs are meant for explaining the reasoning behind their forecasts, and what theirs are are summaries of their forecasts. Some offices are better about that than others.It’s gonna change anyways so who cares? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 18z gfs is weaker and farther south so far through hr 111 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 18z gfs is weaker and farther south so far through hr 111High pressure also built into canada quicker. This run is probable to shift southward as a result of this combo of factors. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 High pressure also built into canada quicker. This run is probable to shift southward as a result of this combo of factors.Or not. Or yes. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 It’s definitely not weaker by 132. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Or not. Or yes.Snow is def farther south but it was a good step in the right direction HP def farther south and more west. Even a good thump of snow here before the rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 4.5 more days... Onshore Saturday night?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ends up cutting towards Milwaukee gosaints crush job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 12-18 from LSE to GB 10.9 here lol http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011618&fh=144&r=us_mw&dpdt= Much different look with the HP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 12-18 from LSE to GB 10.9 here lol http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011618&fh=144&r=us_mw&dpdt= Much different look with the HPIt also dug more at the beginning of the run, so despite the more intense low, the run actually shifted southward. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 It also dug more at the beginning of the run, so despite the more intense low, the run actually shifted southward.Yup it dug more and the northern stream shifted out faster which allowed the high to build in quicker. Could see that pretty early on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 i just need a 100 mile shift due south, and I'm golden... but model mayhem once again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011618/162/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I find it funny that people think this track is locked in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 It’s gonna change anyways so who cares?Exactly. It's gonna change. Not sure how that's relevant to what I said. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Exactly. It's gonna change. Not sure how that's relevant to what I said.Who said I was talking about you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Besides the obvious North/South shifts, another key for Lincoln scoring is if this thing slows down a bit. Cuz 18Z GFS is a bit unsettling in that we're right on the Western edge of the heavier band. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Who said I was talking about you?Well you quoted my post so it was a bit implied. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Well you quoted my post so it was a bit implied.I didn’t quote anyone when I said that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I didn’t quote anyone when I said that 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Still a mixed bag on the GEFS. Majority are taking the Dakotas solution, though. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yup.....HP gonna be a big factor as always with cutters. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 DVN keeps mentioning a back door cold front that will turn into a warm front and where that lines up will be key. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 FSD is being conservative. I know I would be, too. The other concern this period is the potential precipitationsystem for the late weekend. MOST GEFS solutions as well as alldeterministic models now show an upper wave and associated cyclonemoving from the Rockies toward the Great Lakes. While many modelsare now showing over 0.25" of QPF with this system - where thatprecipitation will fall is very uncertain. While confidence hasincreased that there will be at least light precipitation innorthwestern Iowa, confidence for any precipitation is lower insoutheastern South Dakota. And confidence for heavierprecipitation remains low across the entire area. So it remainsfar too early to talk about any snowfall amounts. Whether thissystem does have a significant impact on the region or not,temperatures early next will be around seasonal normals in the20s. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 What concerns me about the potential storm is temperatures. NWS Hastings mentioned mixing during the day Sunday would sure cut down accumulations. Still early to see how it plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 What concerns me about the potential storm is temperatures. NWS Hastings mentioned mixing during the day Sunday would sure cut down accumulations. Still early to see how it plays out.I agree. Been saying it all along but nobody else seems to be worried about it. Temps have continued to trend upwards over the past couple days And with minimal snow pack that isn’t going to help either. Especially after Friday we will have zero snow here in the eastern part of the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 I'm not even really watching yet. Mainly cuz I'm about to get hammered in the mountains of Canada:P but that last storm really got to me. I can't invest time like that again only to get screwed 24 hours out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 Those who say they arent watching it are watching it. Dont try and fool us lol. Even if your just reading this post youve seen model images we have posted lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 17, 2018 Report Share Posted January 17, 2018 And also too anyone who says its going north cause of snow pack loss is bogus lol. We lost all our snow last week and the storm hit south in kansas Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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