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How much rain will Downtown L.A. receive from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018?

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Poll: Total Rain from 7/1/2017 to 6/30/2018 (11 member(s) have cast votes)

How much rain will downtown L.A. receive from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018?

  1. 3.21 inches or less (driest year on record) (1 votes [9.09%])

    Percentage of vote: 9.09%

  2. 3.22 to 5.00 inches (3 votes [27.27%])

    Percentage of vote: 27.27%

  3. 5.01 to 7.50 inches (3 votes [27.27%])

    Percentage of vote: 27.27%

  4. 7.51 to 10.00 inches (2 votes [18.18%])

    Percentage of vote: 18.18%

  5. 10.01 to 12.50 inches (2 votes [18.18%])

    Percentage of vote: 18.18%

  6. 12.51 to 15.00 inches (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. 15.01 inches or more (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 January 2018 - 08:30 AM

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It's been a terribly dry year for Southern California with only one major storm so far, and it's likely the very heavy rain may have prevented the water from soaking in well enough and giving a chance for the hills to green up. Another very weak storm is predicted tomorrow, but in a few weeks without some significant rainfall we are likely to see more high fire danger conditions.

So far the driest year on record for Downtown L.A. is 3.21 inches in 2006-2007. At that time the water year was July 1 to June 30, but recently it's been October 1 to September 30, which I think is a stupid change. However, some websites still record the values from July 1 to June 30.

Here is a poll for how much rain Downtown L.A. will get by June 30. Will this be the driest July 1 to June 30 on record?

FYI, total rainfall since July 1, 2017 as of January 18, 2018 is 1.96 inches.


  • Eujunga likes this

#2
Phil

Posted 18 January 2018 - 09:14 AM

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Driest year on record. We match the QBO and solar progression for 6/30/06 - 7/1/07, except this year is a Niña with enhanced off-equator SSTAs/forcing and even more expanded Hadley Cells now compared to then.

Disaster.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#3
happ

Posted 18 January 2018 - 09:34 AM

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BLI snowman advises that the odds favor climatology when in doubt. So I compromised w/ 7.51-10 inches.



#4
happ

Posted 18 January 2018 - 11:03 AM

happ

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It's been a terribly dry year for Southern California with only one major storm so far, and it's likely the very heavy rain may have prevented the water from soaking in well enough and giving a chance for the hills to green up. Another very weak storm is predicted tomorrow, but in a few weeks without some significant rainfall we are likely to see more high fire danger conditions.

 

So far the driest year on record for Downtown L.A. is 3.21 inches in 2006-2007. At that time the water year was July 1 to June 30, but recently it's been October 1 to September 30, which I think is a stupid change. However, some websites still record the values from July 1 to June 30.

 

Here is a poll for how much rain Downtown L.A. will get by June 30. Will this be the driest July 1 to June 30 on record?

 

FYI, total rainfall since July 30, 2017 as of January 18, 2018 is 1.96 inches.

 

Keep in mind that WU data contains errors. Example: Pasadena minimum of 17F on 2/21/03 :rolleyes:  [Actually: 75/ 53



#5
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 18 January 2018 - 01:02 PM

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Driest year on record. We match the QBO and solar progression for 6/30/06 - 7/1/07, except this year is a Niña with enhanced off-equator SSTAs/forcing and even more expanded Hadley Cells now compared to then.

Disaster.

 

When do you see these features changing to something that would be more favorable for Socal rainfall?

 

I really hope these Hadley Cells contract in the future, so we aren't dominated by the Baja ridge for the rest of eternity!

 

If this pattern continues, there is going to be a huge part of the country in severe to extreme drought later this year.



#6
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 18 January 2018 - 01:05 PM

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I have been forecasting Los Angeles to receive around 8" for the season, like that of 1962-63, but by the way things are going, it could be much lower. However, I am sticking to my original forecast of 8" from earlier this season, in case we get a wetter pattern later in the winter and spring, which is still a possibility.



#7
Phil

Posted 18 January 2018 - 03:08 PM

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When do you see these features changing to something that would be more favorable for Socal rainfall?

I really hope these Hadley Cells contract in the future, so we aren't dominated by the Baja ridge for the rest of eternity!

If this pattern continues, there is going to be a huge part of the country in severe to extreme drought later this year.


Probably in 2019/20, when the next Niño starts. Next winter is debatable, but I’m leaning dry.

And yeah, I’m already worried about the 4-Corners/Plains death ridge. Dry springs across the Southern Plains and Central US are usually a bad omen when it comes to the subsequent summers..and we’re also in a pretty nasty drought here by cold season standards.

If we don’t see some good rains in April/May this year, we’re screwed. It’s already as brown/dead as I’ve ever seen in at this time of year. Almost no green grass anywhere, even dormant conifers are dropping needles and branches.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#8
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 18 January 2018 - 03:12 PM

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Probably in 2019/20, when the next Niño starts. Next winter is debatable, but I’m leaning dry.

And yeah, I’m already worried about the 4-Corners/Plains death ridge. Dry springs across the Southern Plains and Central US are usually a bad omen when it comes to the subsequent summers..and we’re also in a pretty nasty drought here by cold season standards.

If we don’t see some good rains in April/May this year, we’re screwed.

 

Hopefully you are correct about 2019-20, but am also hoping 2018-19 is at least somewhat better than this year.

 

Drought in the areas you mentioned could very well bring a hot summer to those areas. I wonder if there will be an enhanced summer monsoon this year?



#9
Eujunga

Posted 19 January 2018 - 08:22 AM

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Good poll.  I ignored weather models and indices and went with a blend of climo and persistence for a vote in the 5.01"-7.50" camp.

 

The long-term implications for this trend in California's climate are troubling, to say the least.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#10
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 19 January 2018 - 11:57 AM

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This troubling trend really got started around the 2011-12 season, and the patterns simply haven't been the same since then it seems.



#11
snow_wizard

Posted 21 January 2018 - 01:43 AM

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I think you will hit 10" or a bit more.


  • happ likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.5"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 29

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#12
Eujunga

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:24 PM

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Starting to look like Phil may be onto something...


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#13
happ

Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:02 PM

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This "storm" has certainly underperformed  :rolleyes:



#14
Phil

Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:08 PM

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Starting to look like Phil may be onto something...


FWIW, the SSW probably renders my prediction irrelevant at this point. The -NAM/-NAO will force an equatorward contraction of the EPAC Hadley Cell, along w/ constructive interference from the QBO (still downwelling).

Then again, this process might take some time. I’m not sure how “entrenched” this NPAC regime was/is, so it might put up a fight if the subsurface is homogenous enough to maintain some degree of coupling w/ the atmosphere above.
  • Dan the Weatherman and happ like this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph