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How much rain will Downtown L.A. receive from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018?

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Poll: Total Rain from 7/1/2017 to 6/30/2018 (15 member(s) have cast votes)

How much rain will downtown L.A. receive from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018?

  1. 3.21 inches or less (driest year on record) (1 votes [6.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.67%

  2. 3.22 to 5.00 inches (6 votes [40.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 40.00%

  3. 5.01 to 7.50 inches (4 votes [26.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 26.67%

  4. 7.51 to 10.00 inches (2 votes [13.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.33%

  5. 10.01 to 12.50 inches (2 votes [13.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.33%

  6. 12.51 to 15.00 inches (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. 15.01 inches or more (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 18 January 2018 - 08:30 AM

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It's been a terribly dry year for Southern California with only one major storm so far, and it's likely the very heavy rain may have prevented the water from soaking in well enough and giving a chance for the hills to green up. Another very weak storm is predicted tomorrow, but in a few weeks without some significant rainfall we are likely to see more high fire danger conditions.

So far the driest year on record for Downtown L.A. is 3.21 inches in 2006-2007. At that time the water year was July 1 to June 30, but recently it's been October 1 to September 30, which I think is a stupid change. However, some websites still record the values from July 1 to June 30.

Here is a poll for how much rain Downtown L.A. will get by June 30. Will this be the driest July 1 to June 30 on record?

FYI, total rainfall since July 1, 2017 as of January 18, 2018 is 1.96 inches.


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#2
Phil

Posted 18 January 2018 - 09:14 AM

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Driest year on record. We match the QBO and solar progression for 6/30/06 - 7/1/07, except this year is a Niña with enhanced off-equator SSTAs/forcing and even more expanded Hadley Cells now compared to then.

Disaster.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3
happ

Posted 18 January 2018 - 09:34 AM

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BLI snowman advises that the odds favor climatology when in doubt. So I compromised w/ 7.51-10 inches.



#4
happ

Posted 18 January 2018 - 11:03 AM

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It's been a terribly dry year for Southern California with only one major storm so far, and it's likely the very heavy rain may have prevented the water from soaking in well enough and giving a chance for the hills to green up. Another very weak storm is predicted tomorrow, but in a few weeks without some significant rainfall we are likely to see more high fire danger conditions.

 

So far the driest year on record for Downtown L.A. is 3.21 inches in 2006-2007. At that time the water year was July 1 to June 30, but recently it's been October 1 to September 30, which I think is a stupid change. However, some websites still record the values from July 1 to June 30.

 

Here is a poll for how much rain Downtown L.A. will get by June 30. Will this be the driest July 1 to June 30 on record?

 

FYI, total rainfall since July 30, 2017 as of January 18, 2018 is 1.96 inches.

 

Keep in mind that WU data contains errors. Example: Pasadena minimum of 17F on 2/21/03 :rolleyes:  [Actually: 75/ 53



#5
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 18 January 2018 - 01:02 PM

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Driest year on record. We match the QBO and solar progression for 6/30/06 - 7/1/07, except this year is a Niña with enhanced off-equator SSTAs/forcing and even more expanded Hadley Cells now compared to then.

Disaster.

 

When do you see these features changing to something that would be more favorable for Socal rainfall?

 

I really hope these Hadley Cells contract in the future, so we aren't dominated by the Baja ridge for the rest of eternity!

 

If this pattern continues, there is going to be a huge part of the country in severe to extreme drought later this year.



#6
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 18 January 2018 - 01:05 PM

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I have been forecasting Los Angeles to receive around 8" for the season, like that of 1962-63, but by the way things are going, it could be much lower. However, I am sticking to my original forecast of 8" from earlier this season, in case we get a wetter pattern later in the winter and spring, which is still a possibility.



#7
Phil

Posted 18 January 2018 - 03:08 PM

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When do you see these features changing to something that would be more favorable for Socal rainfall?

I really hope these Hadley Cells contract in the future, so we aren't dominated by the Baja ridge for the rest of eternity!

If this pattern continues, there is going to be a huge part of the country in severe to extreme drought later this year.


Probably in 2019/20, when the next Niño starts. Next winter is debatable, but I’m leaning dry.

And yeah, I’m already worried about the 4-Corners/Plains death ridge. Dry springs across the Southern Plains and Central US are usually a bad omen when it comes to the subsequent summers..and we’re also in a pretty nasty drought here by cold season standards.

If we don’t see some good rains in April/May this year, we’re screwed. It’s already as brown/dead as I’ve ever seen in at this time of year. Almost no green grass anywhere, even dormant conifers are dropping needles and branches.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#8
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 18 January 2018 - 03:12 PM

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Probably in 2019/20, when the next Niño starts. Next winter is debatable, but I’m leaning dry.

And yeah, I’m already worried about the 4-Corners/Plains death ridge. Dry springs across the Southern Plains and Central US are usually a bad omen when it comes to the subsequent summers..and we’re also in a pretty nasty drought here by cold season standards.

If we don’t see some good rains in April/May this year, we’re screwed.

 

Hopefully you are correct about 2019-20, but am also hoping 2018-19 is at least somewhat better than this year.

 

Drought in the areas you mentioned could very well bring a hot summer to those areas. I wonder if there will be an enhanced summer monsoon this year?



#9
Eujunga

Posted 19 January 2018 - 08:22 AM

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Good poll.  I ignored weather models and indices and went with a blend of climo and persistence for a vote in the 5.01"-7.50" camp.

 

The long-term implications for this trend in California's climate are troubling, to say the least.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#10
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 19 January 2018 - 11:57 AM

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This troubling trend really got started around the 2011-12 season, and the patterns simply haven't been the same since then it seems.



#11
snow_wizard

Posted 21 January 2018 - 01:43 AM

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I think you will hit 10" or a bit more.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#12
Eujunga

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:24 PM

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Starting to look like Phil may be onto something...


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#13
happ

Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:02 PM

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This "storm" has certainly underperformed  :rolleyes:



#14
Phil

Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:08 PM

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Starting to look like Phil may be onto something...


FWIW, the SSW probably renders my prediction irrelevant at this point. The -NAM/-NAO will force an equatorward contraction of the EPAC Hadley Cell, along w/ constructive interference from the QBO (still downwelling).

Then again, this process might take some time. I’m not sure how “entrenched” this NPAC regime was/is, so it might put up a fight if the subsurface is homogenous enough to maintain some degree of coupling w/ the atmosphere above.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#15
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 27 February 2018 - 06:35 AM

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Only 0.02" so far in Downtown LA from last night's storm. Most other places got about a quarter of an inch, so I'm not sure what happened there. Anyway, it increases our chances of driest year ever.



#16
Eujunga

Posted 04 March 2018 - 09:50 AM

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Downtown L.A. at 2.48" for the season, so the record is still intact.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#17
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 05 March 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Downtown L.A. at 2.48" for the season, so the record is still intact.


They have 2.55" since July 1 with the 0.07" they got last September.
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#18
snow_wizard

Posted 05 March 2018 - 06:25 PM

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They have 2.55" since July 1 with the 0.07" they got last September.

 

Amazing with all of the deep troughing and suppressed jet we have seen recently.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#19
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 05 March 2018 - 11:23 PM

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Amazing with all of the deep troughing and suppressed jet we have seen recently.

Most of the storms of this cycle took an over land trajectory, severely limiting the moisture over Socal. The last couple of storms have brought some rain, but still underwhelming in many areas. Hopefully subsequent storms over the next couple of weeks bring more significant rain and snow to Socal. 

 

On a brighter note, the Sierras got some decent much-needed snowfall with this last system, and helped out the ski resorts tremendously and helped boost the snowpack a bit.



#20
Eujunga

Posted 09 March 2018 - 10:16 PM

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GFS very bullish for the 6-15 day period with storm after storm rolling into SoCal.  If this verifies and we have a "Miracle March" that matches or exceeds 1991 (5.92"), Downtown L.A. will surpass 7.50" for the rain season, putting me out of contention in the contest.

 

Never will I have been happier to lose!


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#21
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 March 2018 - 06:35 AM

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Storms have weakened from their predicted strength last week, but that is no surprise. After 0.10" more of rain this morning, Downtown LA should now be at 3.19", including the 0.07" from last September.

#22
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 15 March 2018 - 05:30 AM

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With 0.18" more for Downtown LA last night, they are now at 3.37" since July 1, so it will not be the driest year on record.

#23
happ

Posted 16 March 2018 - 10:10 AM

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Record is spared but not by much. After next week rain chances look slim.



#24
snow_wizard

Posted 17 March 2018 - 11:34 PM

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With 0.18" more for Downtown LA last night, they are now at 3.37" since July 1, so it will not be the driest year on record.

 

I'm shocked you guys didn't do better with the recent pattern.  Really bad luck I would say.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 45

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#25
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 15 April 2018 - 02:53 AM

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As of April 14, 2018, Downtown Los Angeles is sitting at 4.68" for the season (July 1 to present) or 4.61" (October 1 to present). I prefer the old rain year (July 1 - June 30) because the change of rainfall seasons occurred at the driest part of the year climatologically statewide.

 

If Downtown L.A. doesn't receive any more rain for the remainder of the season (June 30), this would be the 3rd driest season on record, surpassed only by 2006-07 and 2001-02, and would even be drier than 1960-61, which was the driest season on record at the time.



#26
Geos

Posted 17 April 2018 - 09:45 AM

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Maybe a little more rain coming, but not a whole lot.

 

gfs_apcpn_swus_52.png


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 25.86", 09/16

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 42°, 09/18

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#27
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 19 April 2018 - 08:04 PM

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They are at 4.70" after today.

#28
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 03 May 2018 - 11:57 AM

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As of May 3, Downtown L.A. is now at 4.70" for the season, which is still chasing that paltry 1960-61 total of 4.85".

 

Absolutely pathetic!

 

Meanwhile, Tucson, AZ has had 11.14" from July 1 to present, thanks to a very active July and August monsoon season. 6.80" fell in July alone! The winter has been fairly dry there, though with only 2.57" since October 1.



#29
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 13 May 2018 - 08:41 PM

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They are now at 4.75" after the last few days of May Gray, including 0.03" from today.



#30
Eujunga

Posted 14 May 2018 - 08:03 AM

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As of May 3, Downtown L.A. is now at 4.70" for the season, which is still chasing that paltry 1960-61 total of 4.85".

 

Absolutely pathetic!

 

Meanwhile, Tucson, AZ has had 11.14" from July 1 to present, thanks to a very active July and August monsoon season. 6.80" fell in July alone! The winter has been fairly dry there, though with only 2.57" since October 1.

 

 

Flagstaff, AZ, has received only 38 inches of snow for the season (which is over for all intents and purposes).  That's the second-lowest snow year of the airport era (1983-1984 was 32 inches).


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#31
happ

Posted 14 May 2018 - 08:16 AM

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Arizona is waiting for this

Tubac, Arizona from August 2017

https://twitter.com/StormHour

 

Attached Files


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#32
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 14 May 2018 - 02:35 PM

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Arizona is waiting for this
Tubac, Arizona from August 2017
https://twitter.com/StormHour


Yep, about a month in a half to go.

#33
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 15 May 2018 - 12:22 AM

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Flagstaff, AZ, has received only 38 inches of snow for the season (which is over for all intents and purposes).  That's the second-lowest snow year of the airport era (1983-1984 was 32 inches).

 

That is because this winter was so crappy across quite a wide region of the west except for Washington and Montana.



#34
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 15 May 2018 - 08:52 AM

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Once again the "climate change" pattern seems to favor strong ridges over the West Coast all winter and persistent troughing all of the late spring when it's too late to get any major rain. If we could just switch those around, we would have enough rain and spring would be warmer than winter like all other Northern Hemisphere locations.

#35
Phil

Posted 15 May 2018 - 10:29 AM

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Once again the "climate change" pattern seems to favor strong ridges over the West Coast all winter and persistent troughing all of the late spring when it's too late to get any major rain. If we could just switch those around, we would have enough rain and spring would be warmer than winter like all other Northern Hemisphere locations.


This is so frequently misunderstood.

Climate change isn’t causing the pattern. Rather, the pattern is what is carrying out the climate change, whatever its trigger may be.

The best analogy is El Niño. Obviously, the global temperature spike doesn’t cause the El Niño. Rather, the change in the global circulation and heat transport produces both the El Niño SSTA signature the global temperature spike.

What ENSO does to climate on short timescales, other modes of ocean/atmosphere circulation do on longer timescales. The only difference is time.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#36
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 21 May 2018 - 05:39 PM

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The latest May Gray explosion has got them up to 4.79" now.

#37
happ

Posted 16 June 2018 - 10:24 AM

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BLI snowman advises that the odds favor climatology when in doubt. So I compromised w/ 7.51-10 inches.

 

Boy, was I off :wacko:



#38
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 28 June 2018 - 05:19 AM

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Unless any unexpected strong coastal eddies spin up the next few days and bring some actual light rain, we will stay below 5.00" and my prediction will be met.

#39
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 29 June 2018 - 08:44 PM

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Boy, was I off :wacko:

I never expected a La Nina year to be this dry for Socal. The driest years (or "ultra-dry" years that bring less than 7" to downtown Los Angeles) have always been either ENSO neutral or weak El Nino. There have been some 7-8" La Nina years in the past, but nothing like this year, which was very close in total to 1960-61, which was ENSO neutral.

 

I am really hoping that the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event that took place in late February is a game-changer for future winters here in Socal, in that we start seeing more precipitation once again. We got into this horrible drought situation after the SSW event of 2013, and we have only had one really decent winter (2016-17) since the wet season of 2010-11.

 

If we continue to have dry to ultra-dry winters for the next decade and beyond, I will almost be convinced that the loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years from the warming of the Arctic is playing a big role in the weakening and displacement of the jet stream to the north, depriving the southern half of California of its needed precipitation.


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#40
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 01:44 AM

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The Arctic has remained relatively stable since 2007, and it’s actually pretty healthy-looking right now, all things considered.

The drought was/is a result of the Pacific z-cell expansion which corresponds to the more poleward jet(s) and positive state of the northern annular mode. The warm Arctic is tied into that process as well, but it’s a result of it, rather than a cause.
  • Dan the Weatherman likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#41
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:05 AM

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Final total is 4.79". Likelihood is somewhat high that we'll get a little more next year.

 

Looks like some areas of Orange County had the driest winter on record.



#42
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

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The Arctic has remained relatively stable since 2007, and it’s actually pretty healthy-looking right now, all things considered.

The drought was/is a result of the Pacific z-cell expansion which corresponds to the more poleward jet(s) and positive state of the northern annular mode. The warm Arctic is tied into that process as well, but it’s a result of it, rather than a cause.

 

Do you see any sign of this process reversing anytime soon, and will this SSW that occurred back in late February help establish a more normal pattern in your opinion?

 

I really don't want to see Socal continue to be nearly as dry as the Atacama Desert like it has been off and on for these last 5 years, especially years like 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2017-18.