OHwx followed-up his earlier post
"I am becoming increasingly optimistic about the storm just after the turn of the month. A large number of GEFS and EPS members have a nice storm (probably 70-80%), though with disagreement on location. There seems to be some agreement on potentially some STJ activity in that timeframe along with a strong northern stream shortwave riding along a steepening temp gradient. As you have pointed out, a lot of storms so far this winter haven't panned out due to too much PJ influence, and given the magnitude of the cold over Canada and changes run to run on the models in their exact handling of it at this point that will remain a concern until we get closer in.
Thereafter, the MJO evolution is both good and bad IMO...bad for the reason you pointed out, it limits the opportunity for a larger STJ shortwave to blow up into a juicy Gulf low, but good because a phase 8 MJO in February is cold in the eastern US...a -EPO in February is cold in the east...I have to think once we get into phase 8, probably at some point during the second week of February, the trough axis does shift east and become prohibitive for our area. It's still possible to spin up a moderate storm with little STJ help before the pattern gets too suppressive.
Wavelengths do start getting a bit shorter, especially later in the month, which would in theory bode well for the trough axis being centered a bit farther west than late December/early January, but a -EPO/+PNA/phase 8 to 1 MJO, which appears to be a quite possible combination the second week of February or so, is decidedly a pattern that favors the trough axis being too far east for us to see more than clippers. I'd certainly hope/expect that we see some more variability the latter portions of February into March which opens the door back up for us. There are indications that the -EPO could persist into March on climate models, and the "organic" techniques such as RRWT and BSR suggest the end of February and into March could remain quite cold, so it's possible we see significant wintry weather into March. By then the wavelengths do shorten some more, which could put this sub-forum back into better position."
Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16" Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0
Annual avg for mby = ~49.9" Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)
2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."