February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Craig-OmahaWX]

00z Euro dumps pretty good on northern Iowa into Southern Wisconsin with first long-duration baroclinic wave late week, with some modest snow sagging southward into central Iowa, but it is also now trending toward the GFS/UK, holding back a bunch of energy in the Rockies for more snow.  The second wave, while not quite as robust as the GFS/UK, drops decent snow along the I-80 corridor.

 

ecmwf_acc_precip_conus_156.png

Liking what I see here.

[Tom]

Happy Monday all!  What a great way to start the week.  Waking up to a fresh snow cover, temps have tanked below guidance to a frigid -2F under clear skies and best of all, we have snow on the way later today!

 

Some of us have been waiting all season long for a legit active pattern to transpire.  Your patience is about to be rewarded, after holding out through the Jan Thaw, the next leg of winter is now going to be worthwhile.  I've decided that the midweek system should have it's own separate thread since it will effect a lot of folks in the Plains/MW/Lower Lakes.  The late week/weekend system may be our first big dog of the season, although, it doesn't necessarily seem to be a wound up snow but a long duration storm system.

[Tom]

Started a thread for the Feb 6th-7th system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1736-february-6th-7th-plainsmwlower-lakes-system/

[Tom]

Started a thread for the late week/weekend system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1737-february-9th-11th-potential-major-snowstorm/

[Madtown]

-10 this am!

[Niko]

Partly cloudy skies and quite cold w temps @ 13F. Nice winter wonderland out there.

 

Btw: picked up 4.7" from yesterdays snowevent. That last band was a real heavy one yesterday around 6pm or so. That boosted up my accumulations. Not too shabby at all.

 

Go Eagles. Glad they one. We needed a change for once. Patriots, Um, Baa Bii, See ya later ,You've won enough games already.

[hlcater]

Can we get better thread names? I'm losing track which is which. They are too similar! Maybe include the week day?

[CentralNebWeather]

One week from now, Feb. 12-13, 12Z GFS has Central and Western Nebraska getting crushed.  This is an entirely different storm and since it is 7 days out way to early for any threads, just something else with potential (nothing more at this point).  

[jaster220]

Happy Monday all!  What a great way to start the week.  Waking up to a fresh snow cover, temps have tanked below guidance to a frigid -2F under clear skies and best of all, we have snow on the way later today!

 

Some of us have been waiting all season long for a legit active pattern to transpire.  Your patience is about to be rewarded, after holding out through the Jan Thaw, the next leg of winter is now going to be worthwhile.  I've decided that the midweek system should have it's own separate thread since it will effect a lot of folks in the Plains/MW/Lower Lakes.  The late week/weekend system may be our first big dog of the season, although, it doesn't necessarily seem to be a wound up snow but a long duration storm system.

 

Yes we have, tho in my case it's about having an active pattern that's not just fluff snow, and a legit shot at a warned event..tho less certain on the last item. 

 

Regardless, here comes the "shades of '14" portion of the analogs, plus I'm at 87% of my avg seasonal total before one more flake falls. All   here

 

[Niko]

Yes we have, tho in my case it's about having an active pattern that's not just fluff snow, and a legit shot at a warned event..tho less certain on the last item. 

 

Regardless, here comes the "shades of '14" portion of the analogs, plus I'm at 87% of my avg seasonal total before one more flake falls. All   here

 

20180205 KRMY Super-Snowy Week.PNG

Whoa!!! ...Mine looks almost similar! Gotta like the pattern this week.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z - GFS.  This would be nice.  

[Niko]

SNOW FEB.gif12Z - GFS.  This would be nice.  

No complaints there.

[jaster220]

No complaints there.

 

IF I had one, it's the way SMI is stuck playing monkey-in-the-middle as waves are more amped to our west and again east. Back in 13-14, those 15 day purple shades were ovva SWMI - and they verified more than once! 

[Niko]

IF I had one, it's the way SMI is stuck playing monkey-in-the-middle as waves are more amped to our west and again east. Back in 13-14, those 15 day purple shades were ovva SWMI - and they verified more than once! 

Ma Nature can sometimes be cruel.

[Niko]

Clouds are already starting to increase rapidly ahead from that system.

[Tom]

A re-inforcing CF has made it through N IL and temps have tanked sub-zero once again out in the NW burbs underneath a fresh snow cover.  ORD has made it down to +3F under clear skies.  As the sun begins to make it above the horizon, the beauty of the landscape re-appears as daylight emerges.  This is what winter is supposed to be like everyday in Chitown.

[Tom]

Taking a look at the long range pattern, the models sure have had a tough time predicting the Week 1-2 period.  From torch to NO Torch, from Dry, to very WET....if your a fan of winter, winter is here to stay if you live in the central CONUS.  The first half of Feb is about as loaded as one can dream of.  I'm starting to believe at a Feb '15 scenario across our sub forum like Boston saw that year.  A relentless onslaught of systems is going to be the theme moving forward.  So many variables are coming together and are seemingly lining up that may in fact produce something very special for many of us who have been waiting desperately for winter to make a comeback, a comeback, that has already started as the "Ferocious Feb Open" continues....

 

Blocking and a continuous -PNA pattern will likely keep the storm track across our sub forum well established...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_pna_2018020600.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_ao_2018020600.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_nao_2018020600.png

 

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Right now I think a February thaw is in store for the middle of the month. SSW bringing more cold after that is inevitable.

[Niko]

Currently 14F under sunny skies, along w a nice full snowcover from previous snows.

[westMJim]

Well I have a (the) cold and still not feeling all that great. Here at my house I had 3″ of new snow and now have a total of 9″ on the ground. 

[Tom]

Well I have a (the) cold and still not feeling all that great. Here at my house I had 3″ of new snow and now have a total of 9″ on the ground. 

Hope ya get better WestJim!  What I found works amazing is organic Oil of Oregano (liquid) or Calcium Bentonite Clay which I took right away when I had the stomach bug.  It was gone in 24 hours.  The Oil of Oregano is a powerful anti-viral homeopathic medicinal remedy.  If you want more info, PM me.

[gimmesnow]

Question since I'm not as good at this stuff as you guys, is this pattern going to stay around for a while, like several weeks? Or is this just a one week and done type of thing? I noticed it was gonna get warmer mid-month on the extended, but WonderClown can't make up their minds.

[Tom]

Question since I'm not as good at this stuff as you guys, is this pattern going to stay around for a while, like several weeks? Or is this just a one week and done type of thing? I noticed it was gonna get warmer mid-month on the extended, but WonderClown can't make up their minds.

From what I can tell, there may be a pullback, but still keep the storm track close to us.  If you are to believe the CFSv2 weeklies, this may very well roll on through March.

[Niko]

My forecast looks absolutely stunning. Have to say, that I have never seen such a snowy forecast like that since I moved to MI.

[Niko]

Currently @ 19F w breezy conditions, along w some high cloudiness starting to move in.

[DareDuck]

Visiting some family near Lawton, OK for the week. I gotta say this is some incredibly lame and ugly weather. Cloudy, dry, and cool is my least favorite weather.

[Tom]

Visiting some family near Lawton, OK for the week. I gotta say this is some incredibly lame and ugly weather. Cloudy, dry, and cool is my least favorite weather.

We have all, but 1 member down in E OK and it's been a pretty sad winter down there for winter weather fans.  According to your stats, it's been about the same in OR.  From a historic winter last year, to an abysmal one this year.

[jaster220]

My forecast looks absolutely stunning. Have to say, that I have never seen such a snowy forecast like that since I moved to MI.

 

Got image??  My NWS grid icons got worse since yesterday. GRR's got some weird fetish with using "Snowshowers" in their grid-cast instead of just SNOW. 

[Niko]

Got image??  My NWS grid icons got worse since yesterday. GRR's got some weird fetish with using "Snowshowers" in their grid-cast instead of just SNOW. 

Same here....suddenly, they don't like to use the word "Snow".

 

I will show an image.

[Niko]

Some high clouds are starting to move in. Temp @ 24F.

[jaster220]

Same here....suddenly, they don't like to use the word "Snow".

 

I will show an image.

 

That'd be the GRR influence right there!  Whatever happened to Light Snow, Snow, and Heavy Snow? Whatever happened to LES headlines? Whatever happened to forecasting weather for all your CWA?  Oh yeah, GRR happened. (Arrow thru head icon here)

[jaster220]

Looks like the MJO remains favorable for at least the next 2 wks or so..

 

[Niko]

That'd be the GRR influence right there!  Whatever happened to Light Snow, Snow, and Heavy Snow? Whatever happened to LES headlines? Whatever happened to forecasting weather for all your CWA?  Oh yeah, GRR happened. (Arrow thru head icon here)

All disappeared I guess. As if they are afraid to use those words in case forecast fails.

 

Tried posting the image, but it will not paste.

[DareDuck]

We have all, but 1 member down in E OK and it's been a pretty sad winter down there for winter weather fans.  According to your stats, it's been about the same in OR.  From a historic winter last year, to an abysmal one this year.

 

Indeed. Last year was absolutely amazing and this winter has been crap no matter where I am travelling. In the future when I see 17/18 analogs I'm going to puke.

[Minny_Weather]

Lincoln airport's thermometer is wacky. They recorded -4°F. I'm at +6.6°F. I know theirs is all official and everything, but I think I have the edge here.

[Tom]

As light snow continues to gently fall this morning, with calm winds, it looks like a snow globe out there.  I haven't seen my neighborhood look like this since the '13-'14 winter when we had abundant fluffy powder.   My snow depth is a little over 4" (4.2" to be exact).

[Clinton]

As light snow continues to gently fall this morning, with calm winds, it looks like a snow globe out there.  I haven't seen my neighborhood look like this since the '13-'14 winter when we had abundant fluffy powder.   My snow depth is a little over 4" (4.2" to be exact).

Please send some to KC we cant buy a good snow lol.

[Tom]

Please send some to KC we cant buy a good snow lol.

I would bud, believe me.  Your area is having a tougher time than us up here until now.  Maybe things get better as blocking becomes more dominant 2nd half of the month?

[Niko]

Currently, light snow and temp @ 15F. About to end soon.

[Niko]

Have a strong feeling the NOAA offices here will issue my area from a WWA to a WSW. Don't often see that combo back to back.