February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Sunshine is now making an appearance from those mean, snowy clouds. A few embedded snowshowers are still possible throughout the day.

[Niko]

Going ahead a bit, models are already possibly hinting at another snowmaker by Valentines Day (give or take a day).

[Minny_Weather]

I'm not buying the -6 that KLNK recorded this morning. Especially since I bottomed out at +1 here this morning.

[jaster220]

Added 1" of LES to the 1.9" of synoptic stuff for a nice 2.9" event. Depth here in Marshall is 6.5" of mostly stout snow. Even today's LES seemed a bit more moist than usual.

[snowstorm83]

I'm not buying the -6 that KLNK recorded this morning. Especially since I bottomed out at +1 here this morning.

 

I've noticed KLNK temps can drop like a rock on radiational cooling nights, especially with snow cover. This reminds me about how the official record low in Memphis is -13F at the airport in 1963 after a 14" snowfall. That same night, the low at the downtown station was +12F, much higher. The actual record low is probably in the -5 to -10 range.

[Niko]

Currently partly cloudy and very cold temps tanite w readings dropping down between 0-5F above.

[Niko]

Looks like I will be canceling my meetings on Friday. Woohoo.

[Iowawx]

What else is there to watch for in February? Seems like models are kind of quiet after Friday storm.

[Tom]

As if there isn't much to talk about (all kidding aside), I've taken the time to digest the overnight data and my confidence is growing that this month will be turning into something very, very special for a lot of us in the central CONUS.  I'm becoming more convinced that after the incoming major snow storm, and the widespread snow pack that is going to keep building, the atmosphere may create an interesting "feedback" across the expansive snow pack throughout the central CONUS.  As all of you know, I'm a firm believer in the cyclical nature of the weather pattern.  I will say this, that LRC cycle #1 is lining up much better with LRC cycle #3 which means that the pattern is going to be loaded with systems through at least the 21st of the month.  Recall, back in November, there were several storm systems that were laden with moisture, severe wx outbreaks, arctic outbreaks, etc (Nov 3rd-5th, Nov 8th-10th, Nov 11th-12, Nov 14th-15th, Nov 17th-18th).  With that being said, it seems to me that our major snow storm on the horizon is lining up with the Nov 3rd-5th (96 days later) system which formed a similar warm front extending out of SE CO/MO/C IL/C IN.  Look at this 24-36 hour forecast....a front draped across the same areas in C IL/C IN!  You can't get nature to produce anything closer than that.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Surface24hr/usa_ICast.gif

 

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Surface36hr/usa_ICast.gif

 

 

What happens after that???  Well, back on Nov 6th-7th, as strong HP drives south across the Rockies into the central Plains, a weak SLP formed in CO and ejected a wave across OK/AR/TN/KY.  What do the models show???  Your gonna be amazed to see this....the 06z GFS is showing the same friggin' pattern!  A weak area of low pressure that tracks in the identical areas through OK/TN/KY!  Truly amazing.  Phew, I hope this provides some clues as to where we are heading.  I'll touch more on the long range after I feed the beast with a nice breakfast.  Adios!

 

 

[Niko]

Its currently mostly cloudy and frigid. Temps are in the lower teens.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm eager to get back into the NW flow with daily wind advisories!

[Minny_Weather]

Was 22.1* when I left my place about 30 minutes ago. Plenty of ice fishers on Holmes Lake taking advantage of the non-brutal morning.

[Niko]

Temps are not budging much, in fact, they are still hovering in the low to mid teens. Its a frigid, cloudy, to mostly cloudy day.

[Niko]

I'm eager to get back into the NW flow with daily wind advisories!

Those NW flows gave me some pretty decent snowevents this Winter.

[james1976]

Picked up another 0.3" of fluff last night. Im between 20-21" on the season.

Right now its cloudy and calm in anticipation of the incoming snowstorm. I always enjoy these moments.

[jaster220]

Picked up another 0.3" of fluff last night. Im between 20-21" on the season.

Right now its cloudy and calm in anticipation of the incoming snowstorm. I always enjoy these moments.

 

Dittos on the overnight mega-fluff (0.2") and the impending storm anticipation..

 

If only I'd been in SWMI the night before the big one!

 

[Niko]

Dittos on the overnight mega-fluff (0.2") and the impending storm anticipation..

 

If only I'd been in SWMI the night before the big one!

 

Whoa buddy...Dang! It might look like that soon in our neck of the woods.

[westMJim]

Dittos on the overnight mega-fluff (0.2") and the impending storm anticipation..

 

If only I'd been in SWMI the night before the big one!

 

In my life time the benchmark snow storms are 1. January 25/26 1967 33.2" of snow and 55 MPH NE winds (in Bay City) 6 to 15' drifts 2. January 25/26 1978 25.6" of snow NE winds 55 MPH with gust to 60 MPH once again 5 to 15 feet drifts. 3. March 17 1973 22" of snow with NE winds of up to 70 MPH 15 foot drifts and a flood when the wind blew water from Saginaw Bay in to Bay City. These storms had heavy snow high winds and lots of thunder and lightning.

[jaster220]

Whoa buddy...Dang! It might look like that soon in our neck of the woods.

 

The first "scene" is craziness. They literally struggle to move their 4x4 forward into the barn with nothing in front of it. The winds (which we won't have this time) were so strong it packed the underside of the vehicle with very dense snow. If you look closely, they had to use a Bobcat inside the barn to bounce the vehicle free. IF we were seeing something like that this weekend, well let's just say I'd be at the store right now stocking up on things, lol. Jackson city emergency mngr after that storm recommended that every resident keep 3 wks of req'd food and supplies on hand. Yeah, like anybody would do that then or now 

[Niko]

The first "scene" is craziness. They literally struggle to move their 4x4 forward into the barn with nothing in front of it. The winds (which we won't have this time) were so strong it packed the underside of the vehicle with very dense snow. If you look closely, they had to use a Bobcat inside the barn to bounce the vehicle free. IF we were seeing something like that this weekend, well let's just say I'd be at the store right now stocking up on things, lol. Jackson city emergency mngr after that storm recommended that every resident keep 3 wks of req'd food and supplies on hand. Yeah, like anybody would do that then or now 

Extreme measures...that's for sure. Perhaps once in a lifetime storm.

[Niko]

Getting some light snowshowers now. A teaser I guess of whats to come. Currently @ 15F.

[Tony]

Just looked at the 12z GFS run for next weekend and boy that could be one heck of a major winter storm.

[Clinton]

Just looked at the 12z GFS run for next weekend and boy that could be one heck of a major winter storm.

Hope it's wrong about the ice that would be really bad!

[Niko]

Light snow on and off. Just a sign of things to come.

[Tom]

Chicago just set a record for 6 days in a row with measurable snow in February...it will continue today, tomorrow and likely on Sunday....#FerociousFeb

[Tom]

I'm not sure where to begin...the pattern over the next few weeks is loaded with storm potential and its centering the storm track smack dab over our sub forum.  The models have been consistently advertising a stout -PNA pattern with enough high lat blocking and a biased -EPO all signal an active storm track where the systems of late have been tracking.

 

00z GEFS 6-10 day...

 

 

 

Total qpf....it's going to continue to be wintry folks....the snow geese in the east are not gonna be happy...while the glacier will continue to grow in the Plains/MW/GL's...

 

 

 

[Nelson]

Yep, definitely has a favorable look to it. Let's keep that ridge off the west coast...

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/test8.gif

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z CMC.  Fun to look at.

[Niko]

February is going for top snowiest in SEMI the way its shaping up. Still plenty more Feb to go. Overall, Winter snowfall is above average currently and probably end up being much above average by Spring when the snows are finally ova with.

[indianajohn]

well this is fun!!! when's the next storm we can track??? LOL

[Niko]

I dont see any warm-ups in the near future. Any temps that were forecasted to be in the 40s are long gone and replaced by 20s and 30s for highs.

[Tom]

well this is fun!!! when's the next storm we can track??? LOL

Next Fri-Sun has my attention as it fits the LRC and this one could be another big system from the Rockies towards the GL's.  Today's 12z Euro and last nights 00z EPS showing encouraging signs that this potential set up could be a west/east storm track.  I'll see what today's 12z EPS is showing.  The LRC storm that fits this pattern is the Edit (Nov 11th-12th) system and it tracked due west/east out of CO towards the Lower Lakes with a sweet looking defo band feature across IA/IL/IN/S MI.  I remember this system quite vividly as it was a slow mover and today's 12z Euro is showing a similar path and slow movement.

[Tom]

The 12z EPS took a big step towards the LRC and fits the storm track for the next system that we are likely to track through the next work week.  Another Plains/Lakes system in the works???  The same places from NE/IA/N MO/IL/WI/IN/ are in the zone of best risk at this juncture.

[Tom]

Boy, does the 12z Euro control have a slow moving bowling ball next Fri-Sun across our sub forum.   OMA to DTX special....

[jcwxguy]

Boy, does the 12z Euro control have a slow moving bowling ball next Fri-Sun across our sub forum. OMA to DTX special....

lnk miss?

[james1976]

Gotta say.....its really nice seeing snow piled up around driveways, sidewalks and all the streets. I went from bare ground to nearly a foot of snow during this work week. Snow depth is the most its been all season. Im over 26" on the season so far. Turning into a solid Winter season all around and February has been the brunt of it so far.

[Tom]

lnk miss?

No, LNK is in the game also...pretty large system...

[Tom]

Gotta say.....its really nice seeing snow piled up around driveways, sidewalks and all the streets. I went from bare ground to nearly a foot of snow during this work week. Snow depth is the most its been all season. Im over 26" on the season so far. Turning into a solid Winter season all around and February has been the brunt of it so far.

What’s your snow depth? I just measured 9” and it’s a welcome site as you mentioned above along with the smell of burning firewood in the neighborhood.

[Money]

https://twitter.com/mark_baden/status/962157071474069505

[james1976]

What’s your snow depth? I just measured 9” and it’s a welcome site as you mentioned above along with the smell of burning firewood in the neighborhood.

Id imagine about 9" as theres been some compaction. Ill try getting a measurement tomorrow.