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February 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#751
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:11 AM

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12z GFS going big again it appears. Still a ways to go but the signal is definitely there. 12z ICON started to show something good too but then fizzled out.


Yup, I think your in a great spot. That ridge to the east is a monster and this pattern screams a W GL’s cutter.

#752
Snowlover76

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:16 AM

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I'd rather see the storm next week disappear than get the freezing rain/dry slot combo that GFS is showing for us.


i don't. I want the Rockies to cash in so I can go skiing in April

#753
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:17 AM

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12z GFS going big again it appears. Still a ways to go but the signal is definitely there. 12z ICON started to show something good too but then fizzled out.


Looks like the Canadian agrees as well...

#754
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:25 AM

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Yup, I think your in a great spot. That ridge to the east is a monster and this pattern screams a W GL’s cutter.


Looks like the Canadian agrees as well...


The placement of the monster ridge is nearly perfect. Still 120 hours to go, I don’t think this thing goes south but I worry about a hard Dakotas cutter. The high to the north might prevent that though.
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#755
Money

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:27 AM

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You can have it

Im ready for 50’s
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#756
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:48 AM

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You can have it

Im ready for 50’s

50's don't do you any good for a day or two in Feb...just messes up the ice on the lakes for outdoors man.  Give me 50's mid/end of March when the vegetation comes alive.

 

Meantime, I think this year Bowling Ball season is going to amp up during the closing days of Feb and esp March.  Wild pattern ahead as a back loaded winter is def looking like it has some legs to run.


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#757
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:48 AM

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Still not sure it’ll happen here, but I’ll take it. 50s are for March and April.

#758
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 09:04 AM

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Still not sure it’ll happen here, but I’ll take it. 50s are for March and April.

Would this put you AN snowfall for the season???

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#759
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 February 2018 - 09:11 AM

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Would this put you AN snowfall for the season???
 
snku_acc.us_mw.png


This verbatim would put me about 12” above normal for the season.

#760
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 February 2018 - 09:15 AM

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I think Nebraskans can sit this one out.  



#761
Hawkeye

Posted 14 February 2018 - 09:48 AM

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The temperature is in the low to mid 40s here in the city, with nearly full sun.  There had been talk of clouds and being held in the upper 30s, but nope.

 

Without snow cover, we'd probably be 60 degrees today.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#762
jaster220

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:01 AM

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Never got the shots I wanted after shoveling out Sunday cuz I got too busy, but I did snag a few on my way home yesterday. With the blue skies it was a stellar mid-winter scene with the deep blanket. Truly love my four seasons Mitten, and the peak of each season gets two thumbs up every time it happens!  B)

 

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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#763
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:12 AM

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Never got the shots I wanted after shoveling out Sunday cuz I got too busy, but I did snag a few on my way home yesterday. With the blue skies it was a stellar mid-winter scene with the deep blanket. Truly love my four seasons Mitten, and the peak of each season gets two thumbs up every time it happens!  B)

 

attachicon.gifDSC00069.JPG

attachicon.gifDSC00075.JPG

attachicon.gifDSC00076.JPG

The beauty of Winter amigo!  Yesterday, I was on the road out in the far NW burbs where there are far more evergreen and pine trees draped with snow and a deep snow cover.  I soaked it all in as much as possible knowing it will likely vanish by next week.  Gotta take in the beauty when you can and appreciate what you got.  That's the motto I live by every day.  Hope we can finish off the season strong and be able to put this winter season to rest sometime towards the end of March.


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#764
westMJim

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:28 AM

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Wikipedia says their annual average is 38.4"; so I guess you could say they are having a good year...a millionaire in a sea of billionaires.

 

Climatologically, they must be close to a zero lake effect station.

 

Wikipedia says their annual average is 38.4"; so I guess you could say they are having a good year...a millionaire in a sea of billionaires.

 

Climatologically, they must be close to a zero lake effect station.

The only time that part of the state gets any lake effect/enhanced snow is with a NE wind with a NE wind they do really well. The only part of Michigan that on average gets less annual snow fall is the far SE part of the state.  As for the seasonal average that 38.4” would be on the low side not sure where  Wikipedia got that figure it should be closer to the mid 40” range at MBS the range since 1949 is between 18.5” in 1977 to 87.2.” in 1967 but that is with several years missing and in some winters, there are some months missing information.

Here is a list of the biggest snowstorms in Saginaw since 1912

 

Saginaw's Heaviest Snow Storms

Rank

Date

Amount

1

January 26-27, 1967

23.8

2

January 26-27, 1978

22.5

3

March 17,1973

21.3

4

February 24-25, 1965

17.9

5

December 19-20, 1929

16.9

6

January 31-February 1,1914

16.9

7

January 13-14,1979

16.1

8

April 2-3,1975

14.4

9

February 25,1935

13.5

10

March 24-25,1947

13.3

11

January 2-3, 1999

13.2

12

November 6-7,1951

12.7

13

February 12, 1985

12.6

14

February 6,2008

12.0

15

February 20,2005

12.0

16

March 4th,1985

12.0

17

December 27-28, 1968

12.0

18

November 29-30,1940

11.9

19

December 20,1971

11.5

20

February 1-2, 2011

11.5

21

January 9-10,1997

11.3

22

November 2-3,1966

11.3

23

November 27-28,1995

11.1

24

March 23,1968

11.0

25

April 5-6, 1952

10.9


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#765
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:54 AM

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As for the seasonal average that 38.4” would be on the low side not sure where  Wikipedia got that figure it should be closer to the mid 40” range at MBS the range since 1949 is between 18.5” in 1977 to 87.2.”

 

To have a 38" mean annual snowfall in that part of the universe is pretty close to impossible; lest you surround the town with 4000' mountains on All Sides.

 

Wikipedia is most assuredly not the best repository for climatic data...and I sort of violated one of my own research rules by citing them...but I was in a bit of a hurry...

 

But then again rules are made to be broken..at least mine are..by me.

 

:)



#766
Snowshoe

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Well this would certainly follow a familiar path this winter. Another miss to the north or will it fall apart all together?

 

Would this put you AN snowfall for the season???

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#767
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:03 AM

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The only part of Michigan that on average gets less annual snow fall is the far SE part of the state. 

 

 

W/o researching each and every cooperative and First Order Station; I'm pretty sure Detroit has the lowest average annual snow average in the state; or is very near the bottom of the list.

 

Sort of akin to being the warmest town in Siberia!


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#768
Hawkeye

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:10 AM

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Early next week, the euro continues to show a fair amount of icing behind the strong front.  It has Cedar Rapids at 60 degrees early afternoon Monday, then freezing rain late evening.  The GFS has been more progressive with the front.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#769
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:20 AM

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Awesome, this storm is 2016/2017-ing us.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#770
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:21 AM

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12z Euro also showing the major thermal gradient next week. 2m temps of 14F here and 61F in the south burbs of chitown late Tuesday. Not hard to believe a storm could be in the works.
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#771
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:22 AM

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That's some nice 48 hour blizzard out here the 12z ECMWF has on days 4 through 6.

 

It would be nice to experience some winter for a change.

 

To me; it has just been one long autumn thus far.


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#772
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:30 AM

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12z Euro also showing the major thermal gradient next week. 2m temps of 14F here and 61F in the south burbs of chitown late Tuesday. Not hard to believe a storm could be in the works.

 

Most of west central Minnesota (well west of Minneapolis & Rochester) has had a perfectly dreadful snow season; so they are overdue for a storm.

 

The Law of Averages tends to even the score over the passage of time.



#773
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:40 AM

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Awesome, this storm is 2016/2017-ing us.

I am hoping winter has at least 1 decent size storm for us before it is done.  Models today don't show much for Nebraska.  Appears to be Dakotas and Minnesota specials in the extended.



#774
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:41 AM

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I am hoping winter has at least 1 decent size storm for us before it is done.  Models today don't show much for Nebraska.  Appears to be Dakotas and Minnesota specials in the extended.

GFS showed over a foot for the Panhandle, and nothing for Falls City. Almost nothing here. What is this, late March?

 

It'd be stupid to call it a Winter cancel, cuz March is more conducive to big storms here than December, but it certainly feels like it at this point.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#775
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:50 AM

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Most of west central Minnesota (well west of Minneapolis & Rochester) has had a perfectly dreadful snow season; so they are overdue for a storm.

 

The Law of Averages tends to even the score over the passage of time.

 

sfav2_CONUS_2017093012_to_2018021412.png


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#776
westMJim

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:52 AM

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It is sunny and a very mild 47° here at my house. The last reading at the airport was 43°

Getting a lot of snow melt off the roof still a lot of snow on the ground but parts of the road are now showing.  Both here at my house and at the airport today is the warmest day since January 27th



#777
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:52 AM

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God Southern California's mountains are having a horrible Winter. Snow levels have been high for whatever precip they HAVE gotten, so only the peaks have seen appreciable snow, and even that's going right away. Feel for the ski resorts there.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#778
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:01 PM

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God Southern California's mountains are having a horrible Winter. Snow levels have been high for whatever precip they HAVE gotten, so only the peaks have seen appreciable snow, and even that's going right away. Feel for the ski resorts there.

 

I think I wrote something yesterday about how Flagstaff has seen about 1/5th their normal year to date snowfall...and what happens in Southern California is often replicated in the mountains of Arizona.

 

Though Flagstaff is very far to the south; they still average about 110" of snow per year...last time I checked the records...so this is from memory.

 

They've seen less than a foot and a half so far this winter.

 

That 7000' feet of elevation can usually overcome quite a few negatives.


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#779
WBadgersW

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:01 PM

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i don't. I want the Rockies to cash in so I can go skiing in April


No thank you. I would rather not have to camp and hike in feet of snow.

Of course, water shortages may occur in CO this summer, so hopefully they get some decent rains.

#780
BrianJK

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:09 PM

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Rapid melt in progress.  Sounds like a flowing river outside. 



#781
gosaints

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:11 PM

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destructive day on the snowpack here.



#782
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:12 PM

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Snowfall 2017-18:

Through 2/13/2018

 

Lincoln, NE: 15.4"

Denver, CO: 15.4" (annual average about 55")

Flagstaff, AZ: 12.6" (annual average about 110")


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#783
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:31 PM

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attachicon.gifsfav2_CONUS_6h_2018021418.png

 
sfav2_CONUS_2017093012_to_2018021412.png


I’ve heard about the wind blowing away the fertile soil out there due to a lack of snow cover. Might have repercussions into the growing season.

#784
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:47 PM

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Rapid melt in progress. Sounds like a flowing river outside.


For sure, snow pack killer today with full sunshine...I’d say we lost a few inches today, if not more.

#785
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:48 PM

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Here we're down to patches of snow in sunny areas, although it's mostly snow with a few patches of grass in shady areas. The past two days have been snow murderers.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#786
snowstorm83

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:00 PM

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It feels nice outside, but I want my snow cover back...we have all year to look at grass.


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#787
St Paul Storm

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:07 PM

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42F and full sun doing work here too. Ran out of wind shield wiper fluid on my way home for lunch. That sucked.
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#788
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:18 PM

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It feels nice outside, but I want my snow cover back...we have all year to look at grass.

Doesn't it feel sad to see it disappear???  LOL, it's like I have an emotional attachment and don't want it go away....just took a couple measurements and I have 7-9" in spots across my yard.  


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#789
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:22 PM

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Doesn't it feel sad to see it disappear???  LOL, it's like I have an emotional attachment and don't want it go away....just took a couple measurements and I have 7-9" in spots across my yard.  

 

It is very heartbreaking; but on the good side; a new snow cover will always come back to replace it.

 

In many ways it is the very same snow that has sublimated; since the hydrolic cycle is a comprehensive and never-ending affair...



#790
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:33 PM

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It is very heartbreaking; but on the good side; a new snow cover will always come back to replace it.

 

In many ways it is the very same snow that has sublimated; since the hydrolic cycle is a comprehensive and never-ending affair...

 

You know what they say...if something is yours; set it free; and behold; it shall come back to thee...

 

Or something like that...



#791
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:33 PM

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It is very heartbreaking; but on the good side; a new snow cover will always come back to replace it.

 

In many ways it is the very same snow that has sublimated; since the hydrolic cycle is a comprehensive and never-ending affair...

Appreciate what you have and live your life day by day...there will be another snowstorm, another winter season to live through...sometimes I wonder if I will ever make a move into the mountains somewhere.


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#792
Tabitha

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:37 PM

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You know what they say...if something is yours; set it free; and behold; it shall come back to thee...

 

Or something like that...

 

 

Though you might not want to test that with any pet birds...



#793
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:49 PM

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12z Euro also showing the major thermal gradient next week. 2m temps of 14F here and 61F in the south burbs of chitown late Tuesday. Not hard to believe a storm could be in the works.

No joke!  Spring fever to the E/SE while you are draped in the arctic air...widespread 70's are going to be a big tease...

 

 

DWBHDfVU0AETD9A.jpg


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#794
Tony

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:52 PM

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No joke!  Spring fever to the E/SE while you are draped in the arctic air...widespread 70's are going to be a big tease...

 

 

DWBHDfVU0AETD9A.jpg

Looking like sig icing not out of the question for next week. Where it sets up could get hit pretty darn hard. 



#795
Tom

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:55 PM

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Looking like sig icing not out of the question for next week. Where it sets up could get hit pretty darn hard. 

Yup, not a big fan of ice...this is going to be a rather interesting week of weather...



#796
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:19 PM

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yea ya'll can have your ice but keep it away from me. Hard, Hard, Hard pass on the 12z euro run. Ice is worse than 33 and rain.

 

Also a warm sector like that would probably equate to some sort of severe threat. Cant really tell where or degree due to data limitations on the euro.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#797
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 14 February 2018 - 03:18 PM

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Not happy with what im seeing for next week
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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#798
bud2380

Posted 14 February 2018 - 03:50 PM

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Euro with major ice for Cedar Rapids next week

 

 

TUE 00Z 20-FEB 3.8 8.3 1009 95 94 0.42 562 555
TUE 06Z 20-FEB -1.8 7.3 1016 85 75 0.33 563 551
TUE 12Z 20-FEB -1.7 8.6 1017 88 61 0.13 564 551
TUE 18Z 20-FEB -0.8 8.7 1017 94 87 0.20 565 552
WED 00Z 21-FEB -2.1 7.0 1018 92 94 0.21 565 551
WED 06Z 21-FEB -4.4 4.4 1021 85 82 0.16 563 546
WED 12Z 21-FEB -6.4 0.3 1024 67 90 0.01 561 542
WED 18Z 21-FEB -6.0 -2.5 1025 60 100 0.02 560 540
THU 00Z 22-FEB -6.5 -5.1 1025 68 97 0.16 555 536 



#799
Niko

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:22 PM

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Gorgeous evening outside......it feels like early to mid March. Haven't check my temps, but I think they are in the 30s.



#800
westMJim

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:02 PM

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Grand Rapids had a official high of at least 46° (48° here at my house) Here is the latest on the ice cover on the Great Lakes

 

http://woodtv.com/bl...-shows-the-ice/