February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

What’s your snow depth? I just measured 9” and it’s a welcome site as you mentioned above along with the smell of burning firewood in the neighborhood.

With my 6" today, I have 11" OTG. Hitting the slopes in the morning, gonna be great seeing deep snow and plow banks all over the place! And the white gold isn't done with us.

[Tabitha]

12z ECMWF Control Run looks good here for next Friday with 15 inch blizzard.

 

Lol.

 

Hey, you never know....

 

Edit: Has some support from the 0z Canadian (lolz) and the 0z Icon (only half lolz).

 

Better chance (as of now) for a small snow event here Sunday night into Monday...48 hours out.

 

Looks like a 1 to 2 inch deal.

 

A nice east, upslope wind should set-up.

 

Rising air expands & moistens; sinking air compresses & dries.

 

All you need to know around here; weather-wise...or other-wise.

[Tabitha]

In my preceding commentary on the vastly over-inflated QPF numbers that the models have been guilty of printing out; I now believe that we shall see a trend towards numerical model equanimity (in a trans-temporal / sub-lunar sense of the dynamic).

 

What I mean by this is that December, January, & February are traditionally painfully arid months across the Great Plains; due more than anything else to the semi-permanent High Pressure that takes up residence across this part of North America as a climatological normal.

 

However, as we approach meteorological (not astronomical) Spring (i.e. March 1st)....the rays of the sun are continuing their quickening march towards the Tropic of Cancer; as Spring draws nigh.

 

The increased warmth cannot help but increase the moisture content of the atmosphere; for warm air can hold far more water vapor than cold air.

 

Thus the QPF printouts should be more in line with demonstrable reality...the only problem being...the average position of the rain / snow line begins to race northwest after late February...so though there will be more moisture; there will also be a better chance of rain instead of snow; especially the further southeast you go.

 

This was done extemporaneously...my, I think & write quick!

[Tabitha]

 Hitting the slopes in the morning

 

 

I thought Michigan was flat?

 

Lol.

[Niko]

I thought Michigan was flat?

 

Lol.

[Niko]

Currently 18F w cloudy skies. More snow on the way! Before all set and done, I will be looking at 12"+ by Sunday nite.

[Tabitha]

-7 F way out east at the Rapid City Airport at 10 PM MST.

 

Temp prediction around here is close to impossible; (for sooooooo many reasons) but I think they have a great shot to reach -20 F by dawn.

 

It is +1 F here; as temps will always be warmer as you move up a hill during clear, calm anticyclonic conditions...as cold air is heavier & denser...and pools in valleys.

[FV-Mike]

With the snowfall yesterday O'Hare is at 23.6 inches. .2 above normal for this time of year. Looks like we will have a good chance to end with seasonal snowfall

[Tom]

With the snowfall yesterday O'Hare is at 23.6 inches. .2 above normal for this time of year. Looks like we will have a good chance to end with seasonal snowfall

Now that's "turning the corner"...glad to finally be able to score a big hit this season.  We've missed so many systems over the past few years and this one lined up quite well area wide.  BTW, what did you end up with?

[westMJim]

It's 19° with a little light snow falling here, The last measurement for the total on the ground is around 11.5"

[Tom]

A little more than 1/3rd of the nation is covered with a blanket of snow today and when taking a look at the latest seasonal snowfall tallies it tells the story where the main storm track has been set of late.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201802/nsm_depth_2018021005_National.jpg

 

 

 

Many of us along the I-80 corridor have made up our deficits in a hurry this month....the question is, will it continue???

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/snow/mw/snow_ytd_mw.png

[gimmesnow]

With my 6" today, I have 11" OTG. Hitting the slopes in the morning, gonna be great seeing deep snow and plow banks all over the place! And the white gold isn't done with us.

 

The slopes were amazing out here in Wisconsin yesterday. It was very light and fluffy. It kind of sucks for snowmobiling, but for skiing and snowboarding it was some of the best snow I've seen in years. I cut my boarding short for snowmobiling, huge mistake.

[Niko]

Big winter wonderland out there. My snowblower did a heck of a job yesterday cleaning my property.

[Niko]

With my 6" today, I have 11" OTG. Hitting the slopes in the morning, gonna be great seeing deep snow and plow banks all over the place! And the white gold isn't done with us.

Have fun and enjoy!

[westMJim]

Ok here are some current seasonal snow fall totals from around Michigan (as of this morning)

Grand Rapids 62.6”.  Muskegon 86.7”, Lansing 40.4”, Detroit 50.4”, Flint 60.2” Saginaw 27.2”, Alpena 33.9” , Houghton Lake 30.7”, Sault Ste Marie 82.3”, Gaylord 90.3”, Traverse City 81.7” West Branch  24.0”, Petoskey 97.0” Marquette 111.3” Houghton 114.3”

While parts of southern Michigan are doing well compared to “average” northern Michigan is mostly well below average snow fall wise this winter season.

[westMJim]

For anyone who wants a little information on Lake Effect

 

http://michiganltap.org/system/files/WorkshopPresentations/C5-Keysor.pdf

[Niko]

Ok here are some current seasonal snow fall totals from around Michigan (as of this morning)

Grand Rapids 62.6”.  Muskegon 86.7”, Lansing 40.4”, Detroit 50.4”, Flint 60.2” Saginaw 27.2”, Alpena 33.9” , Houghton Lake 30.7”, Sault Ste Marie 82.3”, Gaylord 90.3”, Traverse City 81.7” West Branch  24.0”, Petoskey 97.0” Marquette 111.3” Houghton 114.3”

While parts of southern Michigan are doing well compared to “average” northern Michigan is mostly well below average snow fall wise this winter season.

Still more Winter to go. We will do very well this year as numbers could very well be a lot higher by the time Spring roles on in.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy w light snow and a temp of 22F.

[snowstorm83]

Euro crushed the TX panhandle/N OK/S KS and much of MO on next Friday/Saturday. Most of those areas have seen next to nothing this winter, but yeah I still want it to go north. 

[Minny_Weather]

My ex lives in Lubbock now. I hope they get nothing.

[Tom]

Let today be remembered as "The Day the Polar Vortex Split"....at about 6:00pm local time, the Polar Vortex will have split into two pieces....this will be a harbinger of things to come down the road.

 

 

 

 

 

Taking a look at what other's are predicting over the next few weeks, let's take a look at BAMWx's forecast...

 

Below are their week 1-4 temp forecasts...they have done a real good job this year, at times, going against all other forecasts...as I've been saying, the next couple weeks have a storm track across our sub forum.  However, post PV split, high lat blocking should really start to take over and that is why models are really struggling right now in the extended.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WBadgersW]

Yeah I'm ready for spring. I highly doubt I'm going to get a 7+" snowstorm. Everything else is a nuisance.

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday

[westMJim]

Per NOAA:

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday

another WWA for the south half of lower Michigan. I just touched up the driveway after the snow plow came thru. Tomorrow will likely have to do it all over again. But should be the last time for the next week or so. 

[Niko]

another WWA for the south half of lower Michigan. I just touched up the driveway after the snow plow came thru. Tomorrow will likely have to do it all over again. But should be the last time for the next week or so. 

Yup...a break is coming next week. We definitely need it.

[Tabitha]

Seasonal Snowfall 2017-18

Through 2/9//2018

 

Marquette: 103.2"

Sault Ste. Marie: 82.3"

Grand Rapids: 62.6"

Detroit: 51.3"

Duluth 45.8"

International Falls: 40.5"

Rochester MN: 31.3"

Minneapolis: 30.7"

Milwaukee: 27.9"

Madison WI: 25.8"

Norfolk NE: 25.8"

Chicago O'Hare: 23.8"

Green Bay: 23.7"

Sioux Falls SD: 22.2"

Waterloo IA: 20.5"

Des Moines: 20.2"

Rapid City: 19.0"

Fargo: 18.0"

Bismarck: 15.5"

Lincoln: 14.2"

Mason City IA: 14.0"

Omaha: 12.4"

Pierre SD: 10.1"

Topeka: 7.2"

Springfield IL: 6.5"

Kansas City MO: 5.4"

St Louis: 4.8"

Tulsa OK: 2.0"

Wichita: 0.3"

Oklahoma City: 0.1"

[Madtown]

besides Detroit is anyone ahead of average?

[jaster220]

besides Detroit is anyone ahead of average?

Blew past my annual snow total yesterday, if that's what you meant? Not sure what my season to date would normally be since Marshall is tiny. BC officially is over 70" and their season avg is 61.7"

[Tabitha]

Rapid City Airport fell to -16 F this morning; an all time record for the date.

 

It was very cold in the Black Hills today.

 

Very little relief is in sight in the mid-range....and that suits me.

 

Wednesday may feature a brief moderating spell.

[Tabitha]

besides Detroit is anyone ahead of average?

 

Probably Norfolk, Nebraska.

[Tabitha]

besides Detroit is anyone ahead of average?

 

Grand Rapids normal year to date is 55.8.

 

Good rhyme!

[Tabitha]

Madison & Green Bay are nine to eleven inches below where they should be; respectively.

 

Madison is a snowier town than I thought they were; after studying their climate record.

 

They are snowier than Minneapolis...or very close.

[Tabitha]

besides Detroit is anyone ahead of average?

 

The O'Hare Airport in Chicago saw 4/10ths of an inch of new snow today (as of the 4 PM Climate Report...and not reflected in the list I compiled & posted above)....and this likewise nudges them just past their normal year to date average.

[Tabitha]

Thus it is apparent that the only positive year to date snowfall anomaly is centered around the Lower Great Lakes...as far as this forum is concerned...the further east; the more apparent this pattern is.

[Tom]

In the medium/long range, there is quite a battle between the GEFS/EPS in numerous ways.  Firstly, the GEFS are advertising polar blocking starting around the 16th/17th...here are some maps...which are we to believe???

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gefs_ao_2018021106.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gefs_nao_2018021106.png

 

 

vs....EPS

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_ao_2018021100.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_nao_2018021100.png

 

 

 

 

Both, however, do see a -EPO in the extended which is nice to see and a locked -PNA pattern...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gefs_pna_2018021106.png

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_pna_2018021100.png

[Tom]

Starting around the 16th/17th, the pattern is going into over drive as far as storm potential.  Teleconnections continue to support an active storm track across our sub forum, although, there may be some close calls in the mix.  Models continue to advertise an atmospheric river as well as a hyper active STJ coming up from the PAC/GOM.  There is one juicy storm that I'm looking for in the extended sometime around 19th-21st, but before then, there may be a couple sneaky systems to monitor.

[Tom]

As daylight emerges, the landscape is truly a winter wonderland as the mounds of snow continue to grow.  Current temp of 17F, 10mph NNW wind and moderate snow falling....#ilovewinter

[gosaints]

As daylight emerges, the landscape is truly a winter wonderland as the mounds of snow continue to grow. Current temp of 17F, 10mph NNW wind and moderate snow falling....#ilovewinter

Congrats on the nice run!!

 

Looking a little chilly in AZ. Hoping that trough kicks east faster than modeled...

[Tom]

Congrats on the nice run!!

 

Looking a little chilly in AZ. Hoping that trough kicks east faster than modeled...

Thanks! When is your flight out to PHX and how long is your stay?

[gosaints]

Fly out Saturday staying til next Saturday.

 

Don't think you are a golfer, but a friend is getting me on Estancia and whisper rock in Scottdale this year. Never thought th that would happen.

 

Any hikes off the beaten path u recommend?