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February 2018 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Hawkeye
Hawkeye

A day or two ago, the Euro had one focused band of heaviest snow from southern Iowa eastward along the I-80 corridor through MI/OH.  Much of it has now split north and south.  It's hard to fault Nebra

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

9-day Euro snowfall  

Jaycee
Jaycee

Oh gosh, not you too the Nebraska hate train is at full capacity already!   In all seriousness, I get as emotional as anyone when it comes to this and I hope I haven't attributed to this poor mental

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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Looking forward to 40F and full sun tomorrow, with a stiff wind out of the SW. I’m ready to melt the dirty snow down and lay a nice fresh base. The Twin Cities is currently ranked #1 in the country for reported cases of the flu. I don’t have the flu but I’ve had a nasty respiratory virus for almost 2 weeks. I need to feel the sun and breathe in some fresh air.

I am not sure if I had the (flu/bronchitis or what ever one wants to call it) for over a week now. I feel better at times but if I go outside like I did yesterday to shovel out the drive after the plow went by then I spent the rest of the day coughing and just not feeling good. Today I will stay in the house and see if that helps. But I like you will be glad when the thing is gone.

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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With colder air to the west and northwest and warmer air to the east, Nebraska and the Central Plains should be in the battle zone.  I think we could see any types of weather and precipitation with wild swings in temps.  I know Tom has mentioned and I see that Joe Bastardi also has shown how wild they think the end of February and March will be.  In this area, March tends to be the month where we can get our biggest snowstorms/blizzards then a few days later it can be 60.  Let's hope it pans out.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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After a cold low of +5° here it is now cloudy and 25°

 

Hit 2º in Marshall 

 

Some interesting stuff on the 12z runs for next week. Multiple items of interest. The areas that got buried in snow last week might have some flooding issues to deal with.

 

Yay!  :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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12Z GFS is showing our next big storm opportunity as being an ice storm.

Seen that before this time of the year.  Heavy snow west and part of central NE, to freezing rain parts of central and eastern NE, to plain rain in far southeast Nebraska.  Those are the classic storms I remember from the past.  Where the rain/snow/freezing rain line can always be tricky.

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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just a note on the cold/flu/respiratory stuff. The bug here lasts for just about 5 weeks. Been a ton of it around here and some nurse friends say it's crazy how long it hangs on.

I teach in a high school.  It was really bad here 2 weeks ago. Sounds like it has hit our middle school.  Teacher at that building said around 25% of the kids were sick today or went home sick.  Seems like it is either influenza or the stomach flu.  I coach middle school basketball.  We played a team last week that out of their 28 players, 16 missed the game due to the flu.  Been quite a year for sickness, and not in a good way.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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just a note on the cold/flu/respiratory stuff. The bug here lasts for just about 5 weeks. Been a ton of it around here and some nurse friends say it's crazy how long it hangs on.

I've had the stuff 2x, both times lasting multiple weeks. I never had it really bad, it just lingered and lingered and lingered for 3-4 weeks. Mainly a hard cough. My wife caught it and was put on a steroid, inhaler, and an antibiotic, and was told she was close to walking pneumonia with some fluid in her lungs. Not fun!

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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I picked up a cold as well over two weeks ago.  It peaked in a few days and got better, but the last bits of symptoms have lingered far longer than I had hoped.  It is finally about gone.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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A lonely star

blinks her goodbye's

her light goes out

and she slowly dies

 

 

 

 

I feel revived 2day!

 

It was a beautiful day in the Black Hills and I had to take a drive to Deadwood on business; and the trip was pleasant and the business was accomplished.

 

Though I often believe that at 3465' I am in the Black Hills "Screw Zone" for snow; my trip today confirmed that this may not be entirely true.

 

I left my house with about 4" on the ground...as I headed along RT 44...there were many, many thousands of acres I passed with either bare ground or just a coating in shaded areas.  Same as I drove up US 385...for 5 miles north of the intersection between RT 385 & RT 44...very little snow on the ground...and much of this area is above 4800'...some over a mile up.

 

Once I got about 9 miles north of the aforementioned intersection; the snow depth very quickly increased, and in the last 16 miles down to Deadwood; it looked like deep winter...with at least 10 inches or more of snow on the ground.

 

It was very inspiring to see that my spot is not the worst in the area for snow.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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Now part of this can be attributed to that warm front I mentioned from 5 days afore (last Thursday)...which was bringing temps near 50 F (with rain) just 10 miles to my west while it never got above 17 F here...and that probably played a role in a snow melt in the cited areas.

 

One of the few wintery "benefits" of living on the leeward (east) side of the mountains...as the Pacific Air has a very hard time getting in here.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I feel revived 2day!

 

It was a beautiful day in the Black Hills and I had to take a drive to Deadwood on business; and the trip was pleasant and the business was accomplished.

 

Though I often believe that at 3465' I am in the Black Hills "Screw Zone" for snow; my trip today confirmed that this may not be entirely true.

 

I left my house with about 4" on the ground...as I headed along RT 44...there were many, many thousands of acres I passed with either bare ground or just a coating in shaded areas.  Same as I drove up US 385...for 5 miles north of the intersection between RT 385 & RT 44...very little snow on the ground...and much of this area is above 4800'...some over a mile up.

 

Once I got about 9 miles north of the aforementioned intersection; the snow depth very quickly increased, and in the last 16 miles down to Deadwood; it looked like deep winter...with at least 10 inches or more of snow on the ground.

 

It was very inspiring to see that my spot is not the worst in the area for snow.

 

The back-loaded wintry pattern in your neck of the woods should continue for the foreseeable future.  I certainly hope that you can at least recover some of the deficits over the next 2 months and reach normal.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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The back-loaded wintry pattern in your neck of the woods should continue for the foreseeable future.  I certainly hope that you can at least recover some of the deficits over the next 2 months and reach normal.

 

December and January are always bad snow months here; it gets better in February, much better in March...and is still pretty good in April.  May is the last month that usually sees an accumulating snowfall; though on June 3, 1998...even the Rapid City saw a 10 inch snowstorm!

 

There was no snow here in October; and very little in November (about an inch). 

 

Between those two months; I should have seen 9 or 10 inches of snow; if things were running on average.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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After 2 1/2 months of non-winter here; I finally see a definitive pattern change setting in for the Black Hills; especially after Day 6.

 

A careful examination of the all-important 500 mb chart indicates that a significant trough should begin to become established east of the Mountains.

 

Finally, these penny-ante surface features will have some support aloft.

 

Then the pattern becomes even more active; and I believe that it should lock in right through the end of February.

 

 

Two days ago; I had a sense that the upper air pattern was trending favorably; and the 0z GFS is showing the possibility of a very major storm towards sunset on Sunday.

 

A very large trough at higher levels...ensuring a SW flow of moisture...in conjunction with a surface reflection east of the Rockies...could produce a very significant storm by Day 5.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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With only 2 weeks until met Spring, daylight is emerging earlier each day and hints of spring from nature are certainly becoming evident but will the weather cooperate?  We have quite a wild week of weather next week and I'm starting to believe that MSP and parts of WI are in line for a decent chance of a winter storm.  Overnight runs of the GFS and Euro suggest the storm system to track through the lower lakes which is favorable track to dump snow NW of the system.

 

Last night's 00z Euro has a nasty temp gradient draped across the Plains/MW on Presidents Day.  I might as well start a thread for this system later today if trends hold.

 

 

00z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021400/180/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

06z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021406/174/snku_acc.us_mw.png

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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It is now time to take a look at the total snow fall so far this winter season.

 

South West Michigan

 

Muskegon  90.6”

Grand Rapids  66.5”

 

Central Michigan

 

Lansing 44.9”

 

East Michigan

 

Detroit  52.5”

Flint  65.1”

Saginaw  31.1”

 

Norther Lower Michigan

 

Alpena   37.1”

Houghton Lake 34.7”

Gaylord  92.0”

Traverse City 83.3”

Petoskey 98.5”

 

Upper Michigan

 

Sault Ste Marie   84.8”

Marquette  116.2”

Herman 131.5”

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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It is now time to take a look at the total snow fall so far this winter season.

 

Saginaw  31.1”

 

Wikipedia says their annual average is 38.4"; so I guess you could say they are having a good year...a millionaire in a sea of billionaires.

 

Climatologically, they must be close to a zero lake effect station.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z GFS going big again it appears. Still a ways to go but the signal is definitely there. 12z ICON started to show something good too but then fizzled out.

Yup, I think your in a great spot. That ridge to the east is a monster and this pattern screams a W GL’s cutter.

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St Paul Storm Contributor

St Paul Storm

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Yup, I think your in a great spot. That ridge to the east is a monster and this pattern screams a W GL’s cutter.

Looks like the Canadian agrees as well...

The placement of the monster ridge is nearly perfect. Still 120 hours to go, I don’t think this thing goes south but I worry about a hard Dakotas cutter. The high to the north might prevent that though.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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You can have it

 

Im ready for 50’s

50's don't do you any good for a day or two in Feb...just messes up the ice on the lakes for outdoors man.  Give me 50's mid/end of March when the vegetation comes alive.

 

Meantime, I think this year Bowling Ball season is going to amp up during the closing days of Feb and esp March.  Wild pattern ahead as a back loaded winter is def looking like it has some legs to run.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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The temperature is in the low to mid 40s here in the city, with nearly full sun.  There had been talk of clouds and being held in the upper 30s, but nope.

 

Without snow cover, we'd probably be 60 degrees today.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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