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February 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#51
snowstorm83

Posted 25 January 2018 - 09:53 AM

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Lol the end of the 12z GFS has Feb 1899 about to crash down



#52
gimmesnow

Posted 25 January 2018 - 09:57 AM

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That one will probably be legit because I won't be around here.



#53
Stacsh

Posted 25 January 2018 - 09:58 AM

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Lol the end of the 12z GFS has Feb 1899 about to crash down

 

Just saw that.  It would be the biggest, widest, snow event/cold outbreak maybe ever.   :lol:



#54
Tom

Posted 25 January 2018 - 09:58 AM

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Earlier today when I was analyzing all sorts of data and looking back at the LRC's previous cycles, a thought came across my mind and light bulb went off.  Someone on here, can't remember who it was, mentioned something along the lines that in order for Chicago to make it back to the seasonal avg snowfall a Feb '15 Boston type of set up would have to happen.  After today's research and digging, the idea came over me....What if that can actually happen???

 

Here is my thinking...we are about to enter a 2 week period of cold that we all know has happened in the previous LRC cycles.  Now, the wettest of the 2 cycles was the 1st cycle and not so much the second.  Not only have I, but Gary Lezak has mentioned in previous blog posts that sometimes the LRC works in a way where cycles 1 & 3 match up better than 1 & 2 or 2 & 3 and so forth.  Having said that, I'm starting to lean towards the idea we may be heading towards a rather interesting open to the month because in LRC cycle #1, there were many systems that did in fact deliver juicy systems and if we are to believe that at face value then there is a lot on the table here.

 

Today's 12z GEFS are spitting out some big accumulations over the next 2 weeks...


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#55
Tom

Posted 25 January 2018 - 10:03 AM

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As we get deeper and deeper into Feb, the GEFS ensembles are spitting out copious moisture....pointing towards a stormy/active period...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png


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#56
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 January 2018 - 10:05 AM

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Glad to see moisture returning. Have a feeling I'm going to need it. The ground here is still pretty dry.

#57
CentralNebWeather

Posted 25 January 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Lol the end of the 12z GFS has Feb 1899 about to crash down

Do I see a 1064 High Pressure at the end of the GFS run?  That would be brutal cold for the Central US.



#58
hlcater

Posted 25 January 2018 - 11:04 AM

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That entire GFS run was a complete joke. (Although please happen)
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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#59
Tony

Posted 25 January 2018 - 11:33 AM

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Euro is junk for all of us. I think our best chance of accumulating snow will be an over running event as a frontal passage will maybe give us flurries at best.



#60
jaster220

Posted 25 January 2018 - 05:21 PM

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Next weeks system has just as good of a chance of being a fropa as it does a real storm


Maybe even 60/40 fropa, but those are prolly some of the better odds around here so far this season

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#61
Madtown

Posted 25 January 2018 - 05:30 PM

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through 384 hrs has a snow depth of 3in here....blah blah

#62
jaster220

Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:50 PM

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Sure wish it was 40 yrs ago tonight tho!! If only time machines were real :-\
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#63
Niko

Posted 25 January 2018 - 07:40 PM

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Some rain to start of Feb 1st followed by colder air as a cf pushes through. Afterwards, skies will clear and seasonably to slightly below normal temps follow w sunshine making an appearance.



#64
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 January 2018 - 08:50 PM

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Well most models have all the clippers north of Nebraska...wonderful lol. At least its active, considering how strong the PV has been wouldn't be surprised to see all of those systems dip south.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#65
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 January 2018 - 09:02 PM

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Well most models have all the clippers north of Nebraska...wonderful lol. At least its active, considering how strong the PV has been wouldn't be surprised to see all of those systems dip south.

Trying to forecast a clipper 10 days out is like trying to win the lottery.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#66
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 January 2018 - 09:11 PM

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Trying to forecast a clipper 10 days out is like trying to win the lottery.

LOL. just trying to make conversation.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#67
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 January 2018 - 09:49 PM

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Believe Me; what I wrote was justified.

 

After my long trip and charming write-up; instead of being courteous and saying, "hello, how are you"...you behave as if I am not even there; as if I do not exist.

 

Count yourself outside of Providence; and I sure don't mean Rhode Island.

LOL. ok then.

 

Hello Tabitha, how are you?


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#68
Tom

Posted 26 January 2018 - 04:38 AM

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Last nights Euro Weeklies lining up quite well with the LRC keeping it in a predominantly BN pattern through about the 18th-20th of the month before the cold relaxes. After this period, I would watch for ridge to build in the SW/W just like it did in late Nov before Thanksgiving. Before we get that far ahead of ourselves, I'm still on board for an active first 2 weeks of the month. Models are struggling with any sort of run-to-run consistency with the PAC waves coming out of the Rockies. This is such an amplified pattern its like a crap shoot for models to sort it out.

Meanwhile, the Feb 1st-2nd system is still showing up on the models and last nights 00z EPS shifted back NW with the snow and has some bigger hits but its been struggling trying to figure out what happens.

I'm encouraged to see the -PNA pattern showing up on the long range Euro Weeklies through mid month....this should keep the storm track across our sub forum that will keep things interesting.

ecmwf_meps_pna_2018012500.png
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#69
Tom

Posted 26 January 2018 - 04:55 AM

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00z Ukie showing a rather strong 996mb SLP near the TX Panhandle towards the tail end of the run.  Last nights 06z GFS matched up similarily to the location of the Ukie.  This will be the most important piece of the equation if you ask me.  We need a stronger and earlier development of this SLP.

 

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_25.png

 

Later in the run, the GFS amps up the SLP tracking thru the OV...I'd say about 40-50% of the GEFS and EPS members do have a surface low develop along this frontal boundary.  Let's see if the models trend better and look more like what happened in previous LRC cycles.


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#70
Tom

Posted 26 January 2018 - 05:53 AM

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@ Gosaints, it's gonna torch in AZ when you arrive for your golf trip down in the desert SW.  I think we have to look out for record heat that is on the table.



#71
gosaints

Posted 26 January 2018 - 06:10 AM

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@ Gosaints, it's gonna torch in AZ when you arrive for your golf trip down in the desert SW.  I think we have to look out for record heat that is on the table.

Boom.  Been watching it and I hope it come through


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#72
Tony

Posted 26 January 2018 - 06:24 AM

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Long range looks exciting but it has always been long range and never materializing. Next weeks storm is a dud for us but EC going to get slammed.



#73
Niko

Posted 26 January 2018 - 08:47 AM

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EC next week looks interesting, especially by weeks end.



#74
Tony

Posted 26 January 2018 - 08:51 AM

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Everything being squashed to the south and if it does amplify then it goes too far west. Story of our winter



#75
Niko

Posted 26 January 2018 - 08:53 AM

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My forecast shows dry weather throughout the 10 day extended. Wow....and temps vary, from cold to milder to very cold briefly, to milder and etc and etc.



#76
Tom

Posted 26 January 2018 - 09:00 AM

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Everything being squashed to the south and if it does amplify then it goes too far west. Story of our winter


Easy Tony, just hold your horses buddy...you can see pretty big trends in the GFS for the GHD system.
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#77
jaster220

Posted 26 January 2018 - 09:26 AM

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Everything being squashed to the south and if it does amplify then it goes too far west. Story of our winter

 

You're beginning to sound like Snowlover's bro.. :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#78
Tony

Posted 26 January 2018 - 09:26 AM

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Easy Tony, just hold your horses buddy...you can see pretty big trends in the GFS for the GHD system.

The only trend I am seeing is the low continues to amplify east of us. Call me a pessimist but don't see this coming NW for any measurable snowfall.



#79
jaster220

Posted 26 January 2018 - 09:44 AM

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The only trend I am seeing is the low continues to amplify east of us. Call me a pessimist but don't see this coming NW for any measurable snowfall.

 

For sure, Chicago's got an uphill battle to steal one from the E OH magnet, but you could get lucky once this season!

 

From my post in SMI forum..

 

That "MAY" trend just enough NW to graze us again, but I had a hunch way before Dec that Ma Nature's biggest deficit region snow-wise was the OHV and she'd be on the hook to target that area with the love. Seems to be playing out that way so far, with PAH for example being way above avg to date. I'd rather we weren't flashed 30" just to have that become 3-4" like last time. Happier if we look fringed with 2-4" and it trends our way at the last minute and ends up more. Key will be how phased it can get before it's too far east like last time.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
snowman1

Posted 26 January 2018 - 10:38 AM

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

 

 

00z to 12z GFS shift N is apparent here. This is valid for 00z on Fri of next week. C'mon Tom, pull out that snow magnet and keep this thing coming north!


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#81
Illinois_WX

Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:03 AM

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Any chance it moves this far north? No? Eh, I don't care.

 

 

It's literally 50 degrees out, and I LOVE it. Give me spring and I'll be just as happy!


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#82
Tom

Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:24 AM

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

 

 

00z to 12z GFS shift N is apparent here. This is valid for 00z on Fri of next week. C'mon Tom, pull out that snow magnet and keep this thing coming north!

12z Euro showing nada!  Wish I could dust off the snow magnet and make it work...


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#83
Madtown

Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:42 AM

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yeah wish it was different, but I am pretty much done with this winter. I dnt believe the potential this year and how nothing came together over this way.

#84
FV-Mike

Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:57 AM

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Skilling had the following post on his FB page

 

La Nina winters--the current one included---are noteworthy for their volatile temps, as we flip flop from mild Pacific to blasts of frigid arctic air. But they're also characterized buy a historic bias toward above normal precipitation. Our in-house studies have shown that over 60% of La Nina cold seasons have produced above normal precip. So it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the "the other shoe to drop" at some point before the cold season ends and to more active systems-- in terms of their precipitation production--to show up in the Chicago area. Just when that might happen isn't clear at this point. But the expansion of the mass of frigid arctic air, currently bottled up in Canada, continues to be predicted by all global models for later this coming week (with an advance lobe of chilly air possibly activating some lake snow Sunday night into Monday night), next weekend and into the following week. All in our weather office will be keeping an eye on that.
In recent days, the full suite of forecast models we watch each day and their ensembles have oscillated from day to day on the potential for snowy disturbances later next week and the following weekend--rendering a precise period on which to hang our hats for snow---VERY dicey at the moment. But with a west to east jet stream likely to lay out across the Lower 48 along the southern flank of the expanding arctic air mass later next week into the following weekend and the week which follows, that's certainly a period to at least watch


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#85
Money

Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:58 AM

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Bring on baseball season

#86
jaster220

Posted 26 January 2018 - 12:13 PM

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Skilling had the following post on his FB page

 

La Nina winters--the current one included---are noteworthy for their volatile temps, as we flip flop from mild Pacific to blasts of frigid arctic air. But they're also characterized buy a historic bias toward above normal precipitation. Our in-house studies have shown that over 60% of La Nina cold seasons have produced above normal precip. So it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the "the other shoe to drop" at some point before the cold season ends and to more active systems-- in terms of their precipitation production--to show up in the Chicago area. Just when that might happen isn't clear at this point. But the expansion of the mass of frigid arctic air, currently bottled up in Canada, continues to be predicted by all global models for later this coming week (with an advance lobe of chilly air possibly activating some lake snow Sunday night into Monday night), next weekend and into the following week. All in our weather office will be keeping an eye on that.
In recent days, the full suite of forecast models we watch each day and their ensembles have oscillated from day to day on the potential for snowy disturbances later next week and the following weekend--rendering a precise period on which to hang our hats for snow---VERY dicey at the moment. But with a west to east jet stream likely to lay out across the Lower 48 along the southern flank of the expanding arctic air mass later next week into the following weekend and the week which follows, that's certainly a period to at least watch

 

This per a LOT met on Amwx

 

It's right to not get excited or too hopeful about anything yet because it's so far out. I've acknowledged being much too optimistic in previous occasions this winter, for instance for mid December and the late December-early January period.  

The key difference from what was being modeled for those periods and the current state of the models/ensembles for the medium-long range is that the tropical forcing via the MJO stands to actually benefit this time should what is being shown verifies. The ensembles were incorrect with the pattern for late December into January (GFS had a mega big dog for a few days) that should have occurred with the phase of the MJO (was a cold eastern troughing phase and ensembles were showing southeast ridge influence).

 

For the upcoming pattern, the placement of the significant -EPO ridge is forecast to be westward of previous occasions. The MJO during early Feb is forecast to be traveling through phase 7 with amplitude greater than 1 (variance on ensembles how strong the wave will be in phase 7). The two in concert should work to keep higher geopotential heights south and east instead of constant dry northwest flow or a crusher PV look.

 

I'm not gonna speculate as to whether a big moisture laden system will occur in the pattern being modeled, and certainly wouldn't rule one out. But we should at least have chances for more frequent moderate+ events, such as via overrunning. We'll see how things look as we get closer. Definitely need the more west based -EPO ridge to verify. 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#87
jaster220

Posted 26 January 2018 - 12:26 PM

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CPC keeping hopes alive for a couple of us on the far east end

 

Attached File  20180126_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png   425.88KB   0 downloads


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#88
jaster220

Posted 26 January 2018 - 12:30 PM

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Indy hyped up about the upcoming pattern reversal, and they should be in a good position, so rightfully so

 

http://indywx.com/20...winter-weather/


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#89
Tom

Posted 26 January 2018 - 12:31 PM

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This per a LOT met on Amwx

That's pretty much exactly what my thoughts are at the moment and I haven't really backed down.  In fact, I'm more inclined to believe the ridge in the E/SE will have some staying power.  For instance, today's 12z EPS keeps the EC warm Day 10-15 and an active storm track in our general vicinity.  The model continues to show a stout -PNA pattern which would allow a favorable storm track for a lot of us.  As long as the -EPO/-WPO/-AO hold on (I don't see why they wouldn't), this will def keep things active around here.

 

 

 

ecmwf_eps_pna_2018012612.png


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#90
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 January 2018 - 01:33 PM

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That's pretty much exactly what my thoughts are at the moment and I haven't really backed down.  In fact, I'm more inclined to believe the ridge in the E/SE will have some staying power.  For instance, today's 12z EPS keeps the EC warm Day 10-15 and an active storm track in our general vicinity.  The model continues to show a stout -PNA pattern which would allow a favorable storm track for a lot of us.  As long as the -EPO/-WPO/-AO hold on (I don't see why they wouldn't), this will def keep things active around here.

 

 

 

ecmwf_eps_pna_2018012612.png

Like what I am hearing. I need a direct hit from a monster then I'll be happy.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#91
Tom

Posted 26 January 2018 - 01:37 PM

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Like what I am hearing. I need a direct hit from a monster then I'll be happy.


Super bowl Sunday period has the looks of a stormy period. EPS/GFS both showing storm potential on the table.

#92
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 January 2018 - 01:49 PM

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Super bowl Sunday period has the looks of a stormy period. EPS/GFS both showing storm potential on the table.

And Im not talking about being on the southern or northern edge either, I want to be in the middle of the heaviest band. That hasn't happened for 8-9 years lol.


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#93
gosaints

Posted 26 January 2018 - 02:09 PM

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And Im not talking about being on the southern or northern edge either, I want to be in the middle of the heaviest band. That hasn't happened for 8-9 years lol.


I am sure the atmosphere will take that into account.
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#94
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 January 2018 - 05:10 PM

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I don't believe in snow anymore. Lol

#95
Niko

Posted 26 January 2018 - 07:09 PM

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Have a gut feeling February will end up dry and cold w bare ground.  :lol: Hope I am wrong.



#96
Niko

Posted 26 January 2018 - 07:11 PM

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Any chance it moves this far north? No? Eh, I don't care.

 

 

It's literally 50 degrees out, and I LOVE it. Give me spring and I'll be just as happy!

:D



#97
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 26 January 2018 - 09:11 PM

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Ggem has a nice clipper coming through in a week or so. Though those are always a pain to track.

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#98
Madtown

Posted 27 January 2018 - 05:53 AM

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3" at hour 240 on the gfs....fingers crossed😃

#99
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 January 2018 - 06:22 AM

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3" at hour 240 on the gfs....fingers crossed😃

Lol same here actually. I'll take that and run with it considering it'd be right before a cold blast. Our storm actually looks kinda frontal in nature on there.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#100
Tom

Posted 27 January 2018 - 06:40 AM

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It's been a rough past couple of days here.  I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well.  She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral.  I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

 

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week.  I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event.  With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.