February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

Euro with major ice for Cedar Rapids next week

 

 

TUE 00Z 20-FEB 3.8 8.3 1009 95 94 0.42 562 555

TUE 06Z 20-FEB -1.8 7.3 1016 85 75 0.33 563 551

TUE 12Z 20-FEB -1.7 8.6 1017 88 61 0.13 564 551

TUE 18Z 20-FEB -0.8 8.7 1017 94 87 0.20 565 552

WED 00Z 21-FEB -2.1 7.0 1018 92 94 0.21 565 551

WED 06Z 21-FEB -4.4 4.4 1021 85 82 0.16 563 546

WED 12Z 21-FEB -6.4 0.3 1024 67 90 0.01 561 542

WED 18Z 21-FEB -6.0 -2.5 1025 60 100 0.02 560 540

THU 00Z 22-FEB -6.5 -5.1 1025 68 97 0.16 555 536

How does it look in S WI?

[Tabitha]

How does it look in S WI?

 

Look out your window!

[Money]

All I see is darkness

[james1976]

That is a scary temp gradient. Something nasty is brewing.

[Minny_Weather]

That is a scary temp gradient. Something nasty is brewing.

Yeah. Dry air.

[Tom]

I started a thread for the Presidents Day storm...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1742-the-presidents-day-storm/

[Tom]

I've also decided to start a Spring/Summer thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1743-2018-springsummer-outlook/

[Tom]

@ Snowshoe, 00z GEFS look ideal for the north to get some good late season snowfall for your sleds...

[Tabitha]

Well, what do you know...snowing here with a temperature of 30 F...low visibility and an even lower ceiling.

 

The NWS Rapid City even issued a "Winter Weather Advisory" for the Black Hills...stating that models had trended snowier overnight.

 

Might be the first positive snow trend / pleasant surprise in Recent Memory.

 

Though there is no new accumulation hitherto; so I shan't celebrate just yet...

[gimmesnow]

Please tell me the .7inches of rain that's supposed to come to SE wisconsin on Monday is a lie. All I see on GFS and GEM is rain, rain rain. It's too early for this, this is going to ruin the lake and the snow hill by the end of feb, easily.

[Tom]

Please tell me the .7inches of rain that's supposed to come to SE wisconsin on Monday is a lie. All I see on GFS and GEM is rain, rain rain. It's too early for this, this is going to ruin the lake and the snow hill by the end of feb, easily.

It may be a good idea to expect rain at this point.  It's NOT looking favorable in the lower lakes for any snow to fall over the next week.  If I were you, I wouldn't look for any ideal conditions for skiing in the foreseeable future unless you go farther north.  The ridge is turning out to be a massive one and if you want to believe the EPS, it's suggesting a torch by the end of Feb.  GEFS have backed off the cooler look as well and focusing the cold out in the Plains/Rockies.

[Tabitha]

It may be a good idea to expect rain at this point.  It's NOT looking favorable in the lower lakes for any snow to fall over the next week.  If I were you, I wouldn't look for any ideal conditions for skiing in the foreseeable future unless you go farther north.  The ridge is turning out to be a massive one and if you want to believe the EPS, it's suggesting a torch by the end of Feb.  GEFS have backed off the cooler look as well and focusing the cold out in the Plains/Rockies.

 

I looked at that Long Range "CFS" snow cover and depth map...and though it is obviously just a silly guess map...it had practically no snow on the ground for the next 720 hours / 30 days for all of Lower Michigan...even the eastern parts of Upper Michigan....with the no snow line for everywhere south and west of Madison.

 

Southeast Ridge can be a killer.

 

It is extremely unlikely to verify; but it does point to a less than favorable pattern.

[Madtown]

Well that was a fun week of winter...till next year!

[Tabitha]

Well that was a fun week of winter...till next year!

 

Behold; thou shalt have All the Tomorrows...

 

But, as I always say, the Day after the 6th Day was the Last One played under the Old Rules; and Tomorrow Never Came....

 

Snowing nicely here with a temp of 31 F and a dusting has accumulated!

[Tom]

Behold; thou shalt have All the Tomorrows...

 

But, as I always say, the Day after the 6th Day was the Last One played under the Old Rules; and Tomorrow Never Came....

 

Snowing nicely here with a temp of 31 F and a dusting has accumulated!

Your in for a nice run...wouldn’t be surprised if you get close to seasonal norms in the snowfall dept. What is your deficit and your seasonal total snowfall?

[Snowshoe]

I would love to ride out of the front yard once this winter. But it looks like I'll be trailering an hour north again.

 

@ Snowshoe, 00z GEFS look ideal for the north to get some good late season snowfall for your sleds...

[westMJim]

The mid February melt down continues. The current temperature here at my house is now at 43° the low last night did not get below 40° While there is still a good 6 inches of snow on the ground here that will not last too much longer and by next week there should be just snow piles left. So a early “spring” snow melt this year once again.

[Niko]

My snowfall will take a beating and pretty confident it will be gone in a week or sooner. That fog last night really did a job on my snowpack. Not looking good down the road as far as snowfall and that's fine w me because I am totally ready for Spring once March rolls on in. Some nice rainfall next week. Looking forward to that as it will clean up the roads from all of that salt and dirt.

[westMJim]

My snowfall will take a beating and pretty confident it will be gone in a week or sooner. That fog last night really did a job on my snowpack. Not looking good down the road as far as snowfall and that's fine w me because I am totally ready for Spring once March rolls on in. Some nice rainfall next week. Looking forward to that as it will clean up the roads from all of that salt and dirt.

On item to keep an eye on is a mid March system always "Be ware of the Ides of March"

[BLIZZARD09]

It may be a good idea to expect rain at this point.  It's NOT looking favorable in the lower lakes for any snow to fall over the next week.  If I were you, I wouldn't look for any ideal conditions for skiing in the foreseeable future unless you go farther north.  The ridge is turning out to be a massive one and if you want to believe the EPS, it's suggesting a torch by the end of Feb.  GEFS have backed off the cooler look as well and focusing the cold out in the Plains/Rockies.

That is as pessimistic as I have ever heard you Tom

[Tabitha]

Your in for a nice run...wouldn’t be surprised if you get close to seasonal norms in the snowfall dept. What is your deficit and your seasonal total snowfall?

 

I've been outside on my decking watching it for the last hour or so as it has been snowing beautifully...temp fell from 31 F to 24 F in minutes...and there were near blizzard conditions for a period with heavy snow, blowing snow and very strong winds that shook the house.

 

First "pleasant surprise" snowfall of the year. 

 

NWS Rapid City again doing an excellent job...issuing a WWA this morning.  They have had a sterling year for an incredibly difficult area to forecast for.

 

I started the day with a seasonal total of 22"...so, as the saying goes...I've got a long way to go...and a short time to get there...lol.

[Tom]

That is as pessimistic as I have ever heard you Tom

I’ve been pretty honest with myself this season and making calls that weren’t favorable for Chicago. Trying to keep the wishcasting on the sidelines, but ya, it doesn’t really look that appealing next week. My sister is taking her kids to AZ Sun am and I’m almost considering doing the same once we get into March.

[SE Wisconsin]

Too many people on the forum seem too willing to write winter off already.  It's been a wildly vacillating pattern of warm and cold cycles.  We are entering a warm phase now, but by the end of the month it seems as though the cold will likely be waiting in the wings to come on strong for an epic finish to winter.  Both the AO and NAO or foretasted to dip into negative territory.  And a SSW event should be doing its dirty work by then.  Seems like, based upon the cycling pattern this winter, the first couple weeks of March could hold potential - and we all know that early March can behave much more like winter than spring in the upper Midwest.  Winter is not over!

[gabel23]

Too many people on the forum seem too willing to write winter off already.  It's been a wildly vacillating pattern of warm and cold cycles.  We are entering a warm phase now, but by the end of the month it seems as though the cold will likely be waiting in the wings to come on strong for an epic finish to winter.  Both the AO and NAO or foretasted to dip into negative territory.  And a SSW event should be doing its dirty work by then.  Seems like, based upon the cycling pattern this winter, the first couple weeks of March could hold potential - and we all know that early March can behave much more like winter than spring in the upper Midwest.  Winter is not over!

I think March is going to be an epic month for a lot of us. Just like you said, the transition from warmth to cold will lead to some massive storm systems. I think we see all modes of weather in the month.....here is what the CPC boys are thinking. 

[jaster220]

sfav2_CONUS_6h_2018021418.png

 

 

I'm a fan of the "less scientific value" of this kind of map, and I like to look at all the neat colors and comparison of various regions. But, as said before, these often come up a bit shy of reality. Once again my complaint in that regards is confirmed when I look at SEMI which they show only the more northern area of the Detroit metro region above the 4 foot mark. In reality, DTW is well above that mark. This from the guy who does the official measuring for Detroit: 

 

Thru Feb 11th, Detroit was sitting at 3rd snowiest winter on record to that point.

 

The top 5 snowiest seasons THRU FEB 11

1.) 70.8" - 2013-14

2.) 56.9" - 1977-78

3.) 52.5" - 2017-18

4.) 51.4" - 1974-75

5.) 50.4" - 1929-30

 

I find it fascinating that they are basically neck-n-neck with 74-75 which I liked as an analog going into this season. That was an exciting analog to me personally as KFNT close to my home town had their snowiest winter that season (later topped by 13-14). KFNT iirc is currently beating Marshall and not far behind Battle Creek with 65" (and change).

[Tabitha]

I'm a fan of the "less scientific value" of this kind of map, and I like to look at all the neat colors and comparison of various regions. But, as said before, these often come up a bit shy of reality. Once again my complaint in that regards is confirmed when I look at SEMI which they show only the more northern area of the Detroit metro region above the 4 foot mark. In reality, DTW is well above that mark. This from the guy who does the official measuring for Detroit: 

 

Thru Feb 11th, Detroit was sitting at 3rd snowiest winter on record to that point.

 

The top 5 snowiest seasons THRU FEB 11

1.) 70.8" - 2013-14

2.) 56.9" - 1977-78

3.) 52.5" - 2017-18

4.) 51.4" - 1974-75

5.) 50.4" - 1929-30

 

I find it fascinating that they are basically neck-n-neck with 74-75 which I liked as an analog going into this season. That was an exciting analog to me personally as KFNT close to my home town had their snowiest winter that season (later topped by 13-14). KFNT iirc is currently beating Marshall and not far behind Battle Creek with 65" (and change).

 

It may be off here & there...but overall; I think they drew a pretty darn good map.

 

Believe me; I've seen far worse efforts.

[Tabitha]

Well, what do you know...snowing here with a temperature of 30 F...low visibility and an even lower ceiling.

 

The NWS Rapid City even issued a "Winter Weather Advisory" for the Black Hills...stating that models had trended snowier overnight.

 

Might be the first positive snow trend / pleasant surprise in Recent Memory.

 

Though there is no new accumulation hitherto; so I shan't celebrate just yet...

 

Moderate snow, blowing snow at Noon...temp 19 F...wind North at 30 mph gusting over 40 mph.

 

Visibility down to 1/2 mile...but sometimes lower in heavier activity.

[BrianJK]

That is as pessimistic as I have ever heard you Tom

Not sure about pessimistic, but definitely realistic.

[Tabitha]

Moderate snow, blowing snow at Noon...temp 19 F...wind North at 30 mph gusting over 40 mph.

 

Visibility down to 1/2 mile...but sometimes lower in heavier activity.

 

Its over...very tough measure with all the wind...but I would say about 1.5" new snow for the day.

 

Extremely pleasant event; it was during the day when you could see it...it was sooooooo windy and for about 2 hours it was sort of like a mini-blizzard with much blowing snow...and more than anything else; it was somewhat unexpected...as some models yesterday had a complete shut out here.  Lastly, the snow cover that disappeared yesterday has returned...just as I waxed poetic about in a previous post.

 

"Condition people to expect nothing; and the least little bit gets them all excited."

 

Monthly total: 8.0"

Seasonal total: 23.5"

 

The ground has now been well-covered with snow on 56 days this season.

[Hawkeye]

We overperformed yesterday and again today.  The late-morning DVN forecast said steady temp near 39, but the airport is now at 47.  The relatively deep snow pack has taken a beating.  Quite a bit of bare ground is showing up in open/well-trafficked areas.

[snowstorm83]

We're torching in 40s, meanwhile it was 80 in St. Louis today...

[Tabitha]

DFN of -14.2 F at Rapid City through the first 14 days of February.

 

Mean temp was 11.9 F for that same interval.

 

Definitely one of the coldest February's on record so far.

 

Extreme minimum for the month (so far) was -16 F.

 

(Had accidentally placed this is the storm thread; rather than the obs. thread where it belongs). 

[Tom]

How quickly the winter landscape can fade...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

How quickly the winter landscape can fade...

 

You can say that again. Large piles remain here and still snow on shaded sides but a lot of grass now showing.

[Tabitha]

Big snows are usually followed by thaws; only because big snows invariably come at the very end of a cold pattern; and the snow often signals that pattern change.

 

This is more common in areas south of 42 N...as to the north of that parallel; there is less up & down and more persistent cold from December through February.

[Hawkeye]

Our snow pack is also down to 1 inch, 2 in spots.

[gosaints]

Pretty solid Secondary frontal snow here... Ripping good

[BLIZZARD09]

A week to build up that snow cover --3 days to take it down

[Minny_Weather]

Today's cold front feels way more like one that we would have in the middle of November than one in the middle of February. Nice mild day interrupted by strong North winds and sharply dropping temperatures here. It feels like football season outside.

 

Also, it looks like some light snow action is happening off to the South. Keep it down there, especially knowing it'd go away Saturday anyway. That's right folks, it's the season of not being able to maintain a snow cover once again.

[OKwx2k4]

sfav2_CONUS_6h_2018021418.png

 

The map of winter sadness. Lol.