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February 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1151
Tabitha

Posted 27 February 2018 - 08:52 PM

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This March 3rd Storm has now disappeared entirely.

 

Will it come back?

 

As Judge Rayford once said; while high above eastern Maryland on a winter day in 1979:

 

"Maybe; maybe not"

 

That storm that I have been chatting about for a couple of weeks look rather inauspicious on the 0z runs; maybe the European will be the first to breathe new life into it in an hour or so.

 

It would be a refreshing change for a storm to strengthen; rather than diminish, on the models as the actual day of the storm draws near.

 

It has not snowed here in the past 8 days; and that should extend to at least 12 days...before the next chance of snow presents itself on Sunday.



#1152
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:11 AM

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Last day of February, first morning of 2018 where I woke up to singing birds. 32.4°F.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1153
Hawkeye

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:22 AM

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Last day of February, first morning of 2018 where I woke up to singing birds. 32.4°F.

 

The red-winged blackbirds showed up here late yesterday afternoon.  Walking outside and hearing those calls from the treetops is always the first real sign of spring.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1154
Illinois_WX

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:06 AM

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I don't know if you guys are aware, but the flooding down by Davenport on the Illinois side is some of the worst I've seen. I drove through the area on Sunday and was blown away--there are houses off the Rock River that are almost completely underwater because of the ice jams. It's insane. They're at the point where they'll likely have to be demolished afterwards.

 

 

Speaking of flooding, anyone remember 2008 in Nebraska/Iowa?

 

Cedar Rapids:

 

mays_island.jpg


  • Hawkeye likes this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#1155
Hawkeye

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:51 AM

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Speaking of flooding, anyone remember 2008 in Nebraska/Iowa?

 

Cedar Rapids:

 

mays_island.jpg

 

Oh, yeah, that historic flood may never be approached again.  For a hundred years, the Cedar River's max crests had always been in the 18-20 ft range, with nothing more than 20.  In 2008, it hit 31 ft.


  • jaster220 likes this

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1156
jaster220

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:39 AM

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Last day of February, first morning of 2018 where I woke up to singing birds. 32.4°F.

 

The red-winged blackbirds showed up here late yesterday afternoon.  Walking outside and hearing those calls from the treetops is always the first real sign of spring.

 

Here in St. Joe the 1st Robins of spring were sitting in a tree singing as well..sure signs that whatever is left of winter won't be too harsh..


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1157
Hawkeye

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:46 AM

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The sun came out a couple hours ago and the temp has surged well into the 50s again, with light wind.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1158
Tabitha

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:51 AM

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I am sensing that there is going to be a very, very large snowstorm around here (western SD) around Day 14 / March 3.

 

We'll pull the post in 2 weeks to see if I was Right or Wrong.

 

There is not too much meteorology in this particular prediction of mine; just an innate sense.

 

12z European with a huge step in the right direction; as a Low cuts off and lingers in eastern SD...putting down copious amounts of snow.

 

Still about 75 miles too far to my east to get into the excellent snows; but getting progressively closer and still two or three days to work with.



#1159
Tom

Posted 28 February 2018 - 01:30 PM

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I already miss the 60 degree wx...dang phenemonia front went through and temps have crashed into upper 30’s...this is the part of Spring I dislike.
  • jaster220 likes this

#1160
Tabitha

Posted 28 February 2018 - 01:38 PM

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12z European with a huge step in the right direction; as a Low cuts off and lingers in eastern SD...putting down copious amounts of snow.

 

Still about 75 miles too far to my east to get into the excellent snows; but getting progressively closer and still two or three days to work with.

 

The control run at least another 75 miles east of the operational...though some of the individual members were good snow events in this locale.



#1161
Tabitha

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:05 PM

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The control run at least another 75 miles east of the operational...though some of the individual members were good snow events in this locale.

 

18z GFS took a good step; now with 1/4 inch to 1/2 inch LE in the area for Sunday / through Hour 108.



#1162
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:13 PM

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Have noticed an easterly trend the last couple of days. Anymore east and that snow could land in eastern NEB somewhere.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#1163
jaster220

Posted 28 February 2018 - 03:47 PM

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I already miss the 60 degree wx...dang phenemonia front went through and temps have crashed into upper 30’s...this is the part of Spring I dislike.


Still Met winter amigo, but yeah you get a ton of cold flips via the lake for the next 3-4 months

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1164
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:51 PM

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Is the GFS running late tonight? Usually it is going by now.

#1165
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:52 PM

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I see it has started now.

#1166
snowstorm83

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:16 PM

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Is the GFS running late tonight? Usually it is going by now.

 

Dang it, I was hoping it broke 



#1167
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:25 PM

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Dang it, I was hoping it broke 

After its performance this Winter, I wouldn't mind defunding it.


  • snowstorm83 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1168
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:36 PM

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Wow! 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#1169
Tabitha

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:37 PM

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After its performance this Winter, I wouldn't mind defunding it.

 

From some of your commentary; I am under the impression that you alone pay 50% of all revenues collected in the 50 States.



#1170
Tabitha

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:40 PM

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Wow! 

 

 

Craig, your girlfriend just called me and said that you need log off your computer, take the garbage out, get the screen door patched and get to sleep so you can wake up nice and early and not be late to work again...so you can make enough money to pay for her trip to Aruba with her girlfriends.

 

She also said that if you do as she says; she will let you take her to a movie Saturday; provided you pay for the tickets (and the popcorn). 


  • gabel23 likes this

#1171
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:43 PM

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Craig, your girlfriend just called me and said that you need log off your computer, take the garbage out, get the screen door patched and get to sleep so you can wake up nice and early and not be late to work again...so you can make enough money to pay for her trip to Aruba with her girlfriends.

 

She also said that if you do as she says; she will let you take her to a movie Saturday; provided you pay for the tickets (and the popcorn). 

Wow LOL that was random.


  • jaster220 likes this

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#1172
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:33 PM

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From some of your commentary; I am under the impression that you alone pay 50% of all revenues collected in the 50 States.

Sure feels like it!


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1173
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 02:41 AM

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Sure feels like it!

 

Good comeback...you are getting quick like Me.