jaster220 Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Fun times tracking systems just around the corner. Gosh, let's hope so... Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 February is looking to be coldish, but not too stormy. Main action seems to be going south of i-80. We will see how it turns out. EC has more chances as it stands for now. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Next weeks system has just as good of a chance of being a fropa as it does a real storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Take it for what it's worth, but 12Z GFS is very active in the long term. It looks like what Tom has been talking about with a battleground setting up through the subforum, though we know nothing is set in stone that far out. Just interesting to look at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Unfortunately next weeks storm looks to target places along I-70 on east so will not see much for places North of this. I know its a week away but that's the way the trends have been so no denying it. Just does not look any better in the long range with regards to any major storms. It's really a shame that winter has turned out this way and I hope winter does not decide to show its face in March or April.Looks like you and Tom are at opposite ends in your long range views Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Take it for what it's worth, but 12Z GFS is very active in the long term. It looks like what Tom has been talking about with a battleground setting up through the subforum, though we know nothing is set in stone that far out. Just interesting to look at.It's actually the first thing Tom has said for that time period I am 100% also on board with. Nothing against Tom, he's great at what he does, but it's more of me being a pessimist. But with a -EPO and an MJO in phase 7, I actually do like our odds for once... 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 February is our climo-favored period for a big storm. I'm liking the odds of us getting a legit storm here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Looks like you and Tom are at opposite ends in your long range viewsI hope he is right as I would rather be wrong but the only thing in the long range that models were correct on was the cold intrusion. As far as next weeks storm GFS looks like a frontal passage while the Gem is a little more interesting with more of an overrunning event but neither of them showing anything bigger. Edit: Of course the EC looks like a big hit for next weekend...figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I hope he is right as I would rather be wrong but the only thing in the long range that models were correct on was the cold intrusion. As far as next weeks storm GFS looks like a frontal passage while the Gem is a little more interesting with more of an overrunning event but neither of them showing anything bigger. Edit: Of course the EC looks like a big hit for next weekend...figures.that's what was shared from another forum earlier. according to this other individual they feel the pattern has the best chance the first week, but then after it doesn't favor big storms and favors nw flow around our forum and looks much better for the east coast. maybe a shift back west towards the end of the month. time will tell of course, but if you look back at the beginning posts of the previous month's threads there is always optimism for a great month and the pattern looks great, etc, but then it has basically fallen well short of expectations or predictions from the models each month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 12z GEFS took a step forward shifting it back NW... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Lol the end of the 12z GFS has Feb 1899 about to crash down Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 That one will probably be legit because I won't be around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Lol the end of the 12z GFS has Feb 1899 about to crash down Just saw that. It would be the biggest, widest, snow event/cold outbreak maybe ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Earlier today when I was analyzing all sorts of data and looking back at the LRC's previous cycles, a thought came across my mind and light bulb went off. Someone on here, can't remember who it was, mentioned something along the lines that in order for Chicago to make it back to the seasonal avg snowfall a Feb '15 Boston type of set up would have to happen. After today's research and digging, the idea came over me....What if that can actually happen??? Here is my thinking...we are about to enter a 2 week period of cold that we all know has happened in the previous LRC cycles. Now, the wettest of the 2 cycles was the 1st cycle and not so much the second. Not only have I, but Gary Lezak has mentioned in previous blog posts that sometimes the LRC works in a way where cycles 1 & 3 match up better than 1 & 2 or 2 & 3 and so forth. Having said that, I'm starting to lean towards the idea we may be heading towards a rather interesting open to the month because in LRC cycle #1, there were many systems that did in fact deliver juicy systems and if we are to believe that at face value then there is a lot on the table here. Today's 12z GEFS are spitting out some big accumulations over the next 2 weeks... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 As we get deeper and deeper into Feb, the GEFS ensembles are spitting out copious moisture....pointing towards a stormy/active period... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Glad to see moisture returning. Have a feeling I'm going to need it. The ground here is still pretty dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Lol the end of the 12z GFS has Feb 1899 about to crash downDo I see a 1064 High Pressure at the end of the GFS run? That would be brutal cold for the Central US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 That entire GFS run was a complete joke. (Although please happen) 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Euro is junk for all of us. I think our best chance of accumulating snow will be an over running event as a frontal passage will maybe give us flurries at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Next weeks system has just as good of a chance of being a fropa as it does a real stormMaybe even 60/40 fropa, but those are prolly some of the better odds around here so far this season Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 through 384 hrs has a snow depth of 3in here....blah blah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Sure wish it was 40 yrs ago tonight tho!! If only time machines were real :-\ 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Some rain to start of Feb 1st followed by colder air as a cf pushes through. Afterwards, skies will clear and seasonably to slightly below normal temps follow w sunshine making an appearance. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Well most models have all the clippers north of Nebraska...wonderful lol. At least its active, considering how strong the PV has been wouldn't be surprised to see all of those systems dip south. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Well most models have all the clippers north of Nebraska...wonderful lol. At least its active, considering how strong the PV has been wouldn't be surprised to see all of those systems dip south.Trying to forecast a clipper 10 days out is like trying to win the lottery. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Trying to forecast a clipper 10 days out is like trying to win the lottery.LOL. just trying to make conversation. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Believe Me; what I wrote was justified. After my long trip and charming write-up; instead of being courteous and saying, "hello, how are you"...you behave as if I am not even there; as if I do not exist. Count yourself outside of Providence; and I sure don't mean Rhode Island.LOL. ok then. Hello Tabitha, how are you? 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Last nights Euro Weeklies lining up quite well with the LRC keeping it in a predominantly BN pattern through about the 18th-20th of the month before the cold relaxes. After this period, I would watch for ridge to build in the SW/W just like it did in late Nov before Thanksgiving. Before we get that far ahead of ourselves, I'm still on board for an active first 2 weeks of the month. Models are struggling with any sort of run-to-run consistency with the PAC waves coming out of the Rockies. This is such an amplified pattern its like a crap shoot for models to sort it out. Meanwhile, the Feb 1st-2nd system is still showing up on the models and last nights 00z EPS shifted back NW with the snow and has some bigger hits but its been struggling trying to figure out what happens. I'm encouraged to see the -PNA pattern showing up on the long range Euro Weeklies through mid month....this should keep the storm track across our sub forum that will keep things interesting. http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_meps_pna_2018012500.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 00z Ukie showing a rather strong 996mb SLP near the TX Panhandle towards the tail end of the run. Last nights 06z GFS matched up similarily to the location of the Ukie. This will be the most important piece of the equation if you ask me. We need a stronger and earlier development of this SLP. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Later in the run, the GFS amps up the SLP tracking thru the OV...I'd say about 40-50% of the GEFS and EPS members do have a surface low develop along this frontal boundary. Let's see if the models trend better and look more like what happened in previous LRC cycles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 @ Gosaints, it's gonna torch in AZ when you arrive for your golf trip down in the desert SW. I think we have to look out for record heat that is on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 @ Gosaints, it's gonna torch in AZ when you arrive for your golf trip down in the desert SW. I think we have to look out for record heat that is on the table.Boom. Been watching it and I hope it come through 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Long range looks exciting but it has always been long range and never materializing. Next weeks storm is a dud for us but EC going to get slammed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 EC next week looks interesting, especially by weeks end. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Everything being squashed to the south and if it does amplify then it goes too far west. Story of our winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 My forecast shows dry weather throughout the 10 day extended. Wow....and temps vary, from cold to milder to very cold briefly, to milder and etc and etc. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Everything being squashed to the south and if it does amplify then it goes too far west. Story of our winterEasy Tony, just hold your horses buddy...you can see pretty big trends in the GFS for the GHD system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Everything being squashed to the south and if it does amplify then it goes too far west. Story of our winter You're beginning to sound like Snowlover's bro.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 Easy Tony, just hold your horses buddy...you can see pretty big trends in the GFS for the GHD system.The only trend I am seeing is the low continues to amplify east of us. Call me a pessimist but don't see this coming NW for any measurable snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 The only trend I am seeing is the low continues to amplify east of us. Call me a pessimist but don't see this coming NW for any measurable snowfall. For sure, Chicago's got an uphill battle to steal one from the E OH magnet, but you could get lucky once this season! From my post in SMI forum.. That "MAY" trend just enough NW to graze us again, but I had a hunch way before Dec that Ma Nature's biggest deficit region snow-wise was the OHV and she'd be on the hook to target that area with the love. Seems to be playing out that way so far, with PAH for example being way above avg to date. I'd rather we weren't flashed 30" just to have that become 3-4" like last time. Happier if we look fringed with 2-4" and it trends our way at the last minute and ends up more. Key will be how phased it can get before it's too far east like last time. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted January 26, 2018 Report Share Posted January 26, 2018 00z to 12z GFS shift N is apparent here. This is valid for 00z on Fri of next week. C'mon Tom, pull out that snow magnet and keep this thing coming north! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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