February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tony]

Better you see this kind of run today instead of next Friday

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I have a feeling we will all be fully immersed in this system by Tuesday looking at models religiously lol.

[Minny_Weather]

I have a feeling we will all be fully immersed in this system by Tuesday looking at models religiously lol.

Seeing how things are trending I think this storm will be written off by most by Tuesday.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yeah so much for that "Huge open to February system". And back to ridging after this system lol

[hlcater]

Feeling our clipper/overrunning snow event this weekend is gonna be an Iowa Classic 1".

[snowstorm83]

At least Norfolk will probably find a way to somehow get 10" out of this

[Craig-OmahaWX]

At least Norfolk will probably find a way to somehow get 10" out of this

LOL

[Grizzcoat]

CMC-- (just posting it because I think someone has posted each of it's runs lately)

[Minny_Weather]

At least Norfolk will probably find a way to somehow get 10" out of this

******* hate Norfolk. They can go **** themselves. I'm showing no class towards them deservedly.

[james1976]

I dont get why people act like they hate a city or region for getting snow. Like it's their fault they happen to be in the path of a system. Lol

[snowstorm83]

Well it's not their fault for getting snow, but it's their fault for calling their city Nor-fork like a bunch of weirdos. Let's just start saying Lin-corn instead of Lincoln!

[Minny_Weather]

I dont get why people act like they hate a city or region for getting snow. Like it's their fault they happen to be in the path of a system. Lol

You must be from Norfolk.

[Minny_Weather]

Well it's not their fault for getting snow, but it's their fault for calling their city Nor-fork like a bunch of weirdos. Let's just start saying Lin-corn instead of Lincoln!

Everyone who hates on us probably doesn't know how to pronounce Papillion, Beatrice, and Kearney.

[clintbeed1993]

I'll say what everyone is thinking.  This pattern is a straight up turd.

[james1976]

You must be from Norfolk.

Nope. Aplington IA. Whopping 15" of snow so far this season. Completely bare ground now.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

EURO coming in with a nice surprise tonight

 

[Snowshoe]

My condolences, Tom. May you and your family find peace.

[Tom]

00z Euro through Sunday night...every single consecutive run has painted a different idea.  I wouldn't expect anything different over the coming few days.  Maybe by Thursday we'll see some consistency.  Both GEFS/EPS ensemble members don't look that bad for the Super Bowl weekend system.  I'm not expecting a big snow maker but a 3-6" at this point would be ideal.  I think there will be another PAC wave traversing the same region during the Tue/Wed period as well.  So it will remain active but I wouldn't expect any juiced up storms in this pattern but more or less frequent systems.

 

 

 

 

The period that MIGHT produce a bigger storm system would be sometime between the 8th-10th that pulls down what I believe will be a brutal arctic shot if there is enough snow OTG.

[Tom]

Trends in the CFSv2 for the month of Feb are starting to look a lot like Feb '15 with a nation divided in extreme temps.  If you want a taste of summer, head to Cali or the desert SW...if you want winter, head towards the GL's and East.  I would imagine the cold to shift a bit more to the west.  Although, I will say, the ridge will want to fight back from the west so folks out in the Plains might have to battle a flavor of what they endured during the Thanksgiving period when record high temps were experienced.  This period will likely cycle back towards the second half of the month....week 3???  We'll see.

 

 

Tabitha may be in a good spot to see an active northern stream if this map verifies...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201802.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201802.gif

[Tom]

I don't recall ever seeing a jet stream pattern across the N PAC that is locked with a Split Flow in the E PAC and a raging East Asian jet in the W PAC over the next 2 weeks.  No wonder the WPO is in the tank allowing for major cold to take hold across N.A. this month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_wpo_2018012900.png

[jaster220]

Trends in the CFSv2 for the month of Feb are starting to look a lot like Feb '15 with a nation divided in extreme temps.  If you want a taste of summer, head to Cali or the desert SW...if you want winter, head towards the GL's and East.  I would imagine the cold to shift a bit more to the west.  Although, I will say, the ridge will want to fight back from the west so folks out in the Plains might have to battle a flavor of what they endured during the Thanksgiving period when record high temps were experienced.  This period will likely cycle back towards the second half of the month....week 3???  We'll see.

 

 

Tabitha may be in a good spot to see an active northern stream if this map verifies...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201802.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201802.gif

 

Well, sometimes we score a nice hybrid clipper with a NW to SE aligned gradient as reflected in the latest map (29th), but so far this year it's been a struggle to do so, and I'd much prefer a gradient W to E or still better SW to NE.  Doesn't this CFS look like a carbon-copy of other months earlier in the season. Thinking end of Nov for Dec for one? 

[Tom]

Well, sometimes we score a nice hybrid clipper with a NW to SE aligned gradient as reflected in the latest map (29th), but so far this year it's been a struggle to do so, and I'd much prefer a gradient W to E or still better SW to NE.  Doesn't this CFS look like a carbon-copy of other months earlier in the season. Thinking end of Nov for Dec for one? 

TBH, I can't remember...this type of pattern suggests a dominant northern stream so forget about any juicy SW systems.  Like you said, you can get hybrid's in this type of pattern and one of those may be on the table Feb 8th-10th period.  

[Minny_Weather]

We're doing such a good job of not setting record highs. If we go thru the entire DJF period without setting a record high, it'll be the first time since 2010-11.

[jaster220]

TBH, I can't remember...this type of pattern suggests a dominant northern stream so forget about any juicy SW systems.  Like you said, you can get hybrid's in this type of pattern and one of those may be on the table Feb 8th-10th period.  

 

Well, per this morning's AFD, GRR seems pretty bullish on an active pattern going into that period..

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)

Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018

 

The colder weather that has been well advertised to return will keep

a hold on Lower Michigan through the long term. This cold air will

be accompanied by some periods of lake effect, and by at least a

couple of systems that will bring some synoptic snow to the area.

 

We will see the Wed system depart the area by Wed night, with lake

effect snow showers trying to ramp up a bit in it`s wake. The upper

jet will drop through the area later Wed night and into early Fri.

It looks like Thu will see a decent depth of moisture move in ahead

of a short wave moving toward the area. This combined with plenty of

over water instability could lead to snow accumulations in the NNW

flow favored area.

 

Lake effect should trend down then by Fri. This occurs as the nrn

branch of the upper jet lifts north of the area, and as sfc ridging

builds overhead. The break will be short however, as a system will

approach the area from the west. Warmer air advecting into the cold

air mass ahead of it will help produce some snow. In addition, the

low level flow will support some Gulf moisture being ingested into

the system.

 

We are then also monitoring another wave that could bring additional

snow late next Sun and beyond the long term.

 

&&

[Minny_Weather]

If OAX wrote long term AFDs like this more often then I wouldn't have so much to gripe about. Using actual met terms in a long-term AFD? Nawwww.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018

Reinforcing cold air arrives Thursday with the broadening mid
level trough. Highs Thursday should be in the 20s to lower 30s
with a brisk north wind behind the front. As the cold air weakens
it`s grip and warmer air returns, there may be a little light
snow Friday with a weak shortwave in the flow. The GEM is more
aggressive with the snow Friday compared to Saturday. The arctic
air pushes south Saturday and the EC/GFS are consistent on some
light accumulating snow with the front, however the GFS is a
little less aggressive than yesterday`s run. The arctic air
remains in place for Sunday. The EC has a shortwave in the flow
and some additional light snow for Sunday. This is a bit different
than the GFS which has more of a ridge and the snow farther
north.

[Madtown]

Mke nws facebook posts says several inches possible Sat and Sunday. forecast discussion calls for 1 to 2 Sat. lol

[CentralNebWeather]

The ICON Model lingers an area of snow over a lot of Nebraska almost all of this Sunday.  Something to keep watching during the week.

[gosaints]

Looks like another frontal passage

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS model is much more progressive with the snow on Sunday.  CMC is in the middle.  

[Tony]

Each run gets worse and worse and not good for anybody. Long range has not panned out at all this winter,

[NEJeremy]

Yeah the GHD storm is looking more and more like a simple frontal passage with a little snow along with it. Even the EC doesn't look like they are going to get much of anything from this. Onto the next storm 10-12 days away....

[jaster220]

Yeah the GHD storm is looking more and more like a simple frontal passage with a little snow along with it. Even the EC doesn't look like they are going to get much of anything from this. Onto the next storm 10-12 days away....

 

Simply amazing how the heart of this sub from OMA to ORD can't catch a break with anything from the south. NW flow portion of analogs were dead-on accurate - sadly

[Minny_Weather]

Nope. Aplington IA. Whopping 15" of snow so far this season. Completely bare ground now.

I was kidding when I said you're from Norfolk.

[Jaycee]

Simply amazing how the heart of this sub from OMA to ORD can't catch a break with anything from the south. NW flow portion of analogs were dead-on accurate - sadly

 

I'm looking for my horn so I can go toot it (lol that sounded so weird), because that was the main point in my winter forecast. Granted it's not overly accurate, especially since the upper-midwest has been getting shafted, I knew the NW flow would dominate atleast!

 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm looking for my horn so I can go toot it (lol that sounded so weird), because that was the main point in my winter forecast. Granted it's not overly accurate, especially since the upper-midwest has been getting shafted, I knew the NW flow would dominate atleast!

Bad map, you didn't include Norfolk in the jackpot zone.

[GDR]

Alright I’m in the jackpot with just around 5 inches this winter

[CentralNebWeather]

I think I am somewhere around 8-10 inches total, give or take an inch or two.  

[jaster220]

Alright I’m in the jackpot with just around 5 inches this winter

 

Yeah, the purple west of IN/IL state line is his primary FAIL zone. Otherwise, and especially across Dixie, it's a pretty darn good map! 

[BLIZZARD09]

Each run gets worse and worse and not good for anybody. Long range has not panned out at all this winter,

I was hoping Tom was right about Feb, but  it looks like you had a better feel for it

[Snowlover76]

Lol. You guys thought it would turn around