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Super Bowl Weekend Snow

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#1
Tom

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:14 AM

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It seems like every year there is a system to track around GHD or the Super Bowl.  This won't be a larges system, but a system nonetheless that will lay down an accumulating snowfall across the region.  Let's discuss...

 

Overnight 00z EPS/GEFS ensembles seem to be holding onto the idea of a 1-3"...maybe 4" in spots near the GL's??

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_22.png

 

 

 

gem-ens_apcpn_us_22.png



#2
james1976

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:21 AM

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DMX not excited about this or even early next week. Light snow/flurries chances

#3
Tom

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:23 AM

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Some of the ensemble members are picking up on a stronger southern feature on Sunday that transports more moisture north bound after the first initial wave on Sat/Sat pm.  This is an interesting change I've noticed over the last 24 hours.


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#4
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:25 AM

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This will be about as ‘spread the wealth’ as you can get for a sub forum this large. MPX calling for 1-3” with the higher totals in eastern MN/ western WI. Maybe of more significance here will be the wind chills. Headlines being considered for Sat/Sun.
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#5
CentralNebWeather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:30 AM

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Hastings not excited either, says models really cutting back on precipitation amounts. What looked like great chances 24 hours ago, looking less likely. Winter 2017-2018 ladies and gentlemen.

#6
Tom

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:31 AM

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00z GEFS members...some good hits, some not...I think the best areas will be across the eastern sub forum...

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#7
Niko

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:58 AM

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Its only Wednesday. Couple days available to track this. Friday is when to start taking forecasts seriously.

 

Per NOAA:

 

A developing clipper system will bring the
next opportunity for widespread accumulating snowfall on Saturday.
The shortwave will be embedded within a broad and relatively flat
upper level trough with a lower level sub tropical jet streams in
from the southwest providing additional lift. Models are in good
agreement on the occurrence of this event, but uncertainty still
remains with snowfall amounts. Will have to keep an eye on this
system and moisture availability in subsequent forecasts.


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#8
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:08 AM

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I'm thinking 1-2" at most from this first wave, assuming it doesn't just pass to our West.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#9
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:09 AM

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OAX put in likely wording for snow Sunday but said QPF is looking rather low.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#10
Madtown

Posted 31 January 2018 - 07:46 AM

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started out on Monday with Snow likely wording Sat and Sunday, down to snow showers sat...lol

#11
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:05 AM

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Euro is saying that Ptype could be an issue for both waves here.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#12
Tom

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:05 AM

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So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player than initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.
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#13
gosaints

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:10 AM

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So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player tan initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_16.png

Not a bad signal for ensembles at this range


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#14
Tony

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:14 AM

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So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player tan initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.

Don't you dare try to get me sucked back into this snow "potential" for this weekend!!


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#15
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:15 AM

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Ensembles actually don't look like trash here for the Sunday wave. A few are showing advisory levels.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#16
Tom

Posted 31 January 2018 - 10:38 AM

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12z Euro looks good for C NE/WI/IL/MIN IN for atleast a couple inches or more of snow. E NE/IA are in for 1-2” it looks like on this run.

#17
jaster220

Posted 31 January 2018 - 10:38 AM

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So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player than initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.

 

Yeah, that surface map in the Feb thread with the two 1010 SLP's had the look of possible phasing. Would be such a great surprise if we finally got one to work out that way for all..


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#18
Madtown

Posted 31 January 2018 - 10:48 AM

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more than 1 or 2? Any maps?

#19
bud2380

Posted 31 January 2018 - 11:56 AM

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This is the Euro through 7 days.  Major change from last night for the early week clipper.  Much much weaker.  

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_168.png



#20
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 12:04 PM

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10:1 maps won't work for this event. There will be wind to dumb down ratios a bit, but I still think we'll be looking at well over 10:1 for this.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#21
CentralNebWeather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 12:34 PM

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Maps change so much from run to run, it is difficult to even follow at times.  I have gone from many inches of snow to very little in just 1 run.  By tomorrow it might bump up again or go to nothing.  One of the frustrating things about this winter, is that events that look very promising even a day out have usually weakened or moved dramatically.  


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#22
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 January 2018 - 01:54 PM

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Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so.....

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#23
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 01:57 PM

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Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so.....

Yeah lol. Honestly not sure how well that'd bode for us. I'd think that scenario would have it breaking apart/fizzling before it got here.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#24
bud2380

Posted 31 January 2018 - 02:05 PM

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18Z GFS looks significantly different for the weekend too.  Models aren't wasting any time flip flopping.  



#25
Money

Posted 31 January 2018 - 02:08 PM

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More phasing this run for sure

#26
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:08 PM

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Anything over 1" will be a bonus with the Sunday wave I think. I know models look better than that, but dry air concerns me for this. I feel like some people will be screwed over by that.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#27
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:09 PM

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d**n GFS looks great here but every run is COMPLETELY different. 


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#28
bud2380

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:41 PM

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thinking about moving to STL, but then I'd be expected to root for the Cardinals.  Forget it.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#29
centralweather44

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:55 PM

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d**n GFS looks great here but every run is COMPLETELY different.


To bad its the 18z

#30
Andrew NE

Posted 31 January 2018 - 04:02 PM

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All these waves are going to fun to track in the coming days. LRC lines up well from back around Dec 21st - Dec 29th, none of them were significant snows but we picked a few inches out of all them around Christmas time. Model watching has been crazy lately. Hope everyone can score some snow out of these.
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#31
Clinton

Posted 31 January 2018 - 04:06 PM

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All these waves are going to fun to track in the coming days. LRC lines up well from back around Dec 21st - Dec 29th, none of them were significant snows but we picked a few inches out of all them around Christmas time. Model watching has been crazy lately. Hope everyone can score some snow out of these.

If I remember right it seems the models really had a hard time in Dec settling on a solution.  I wonder what part of this pattern gives them so much trouble?



#32
Andrew NE

Posted 31 January 2018 - 04:09 PM

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If I remember right it seems the models really had a hard time in Dec settling on a solution. I wonder what part of this pattern gives them so much trouble?


Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?
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#33
Clinton

Posted 31 January 2018 - 04:13 PM

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Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?

I think that could be it, I have also noticed when the ridge is strong out west the models have a hard time as well.



#34
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 04:13 PM

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Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?

Every model besides Euro performed horribly with the Christmas Eve snow here. Euro was good with the thought that there would be snow, but it was off by about 100 miles and continued to be until about right before.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#35
gosaints

Posted 31 January 2018 - 04:58 PM

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Have to take these one wave at a time. past that the rest of the waves are to far out
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#36
jaster220

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:49 PM

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GRR ups the ante to 8" amnts..hmm

LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018

Confidence is increasing for a period of moderate snow Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night as sfc wave tracks along arctic
front draped across the lower Great Lakes. F-gen forcing should
be sufficient for banded precip and model soundings show lift
through a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone from Saturday
afternoon into the early morning hours of Sunday. As we have seen
recently, these type of f-gen events can bring locally heavy
amounts where the narrow bands pivot...so local amounts over 8
inches are possible by Sunday morning.

Cold air follows for Sunday but also low inversion heights as sfc
ridging builds in. Lake effect on Sunday and Monday should also be
limited by the low DGZ heights and subsequent diamond dust nature
of the snow crystals.

Lower confidence for Tuesday and Wednesday as fast flow brings
timing differences for snow potential from clippers and arctic
fropas during this period.

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#37
Niko

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:53 PM

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Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so.....

Another 6"+ for me in the works??!! :huh:


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#38
Money

Posted 31 January 2018 - 07:55 PM

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Gfs looking good for WI/MI/IL

#39
NebraskaWX

Posted 31 January 2018 - 07:57 PM

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Another 6"+ for me in the works??!! :huh:



Attached File  B1165BE6-9B2F-49A9-AC8B-CB78A70A97AE.gif   1022.05KB   4 downloads
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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#40
Grizzcoat

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:09 PM

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#41
snowstorm83

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:15 PM

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Iowa/Northeast NE crushed on Monday. Northeast KS/KCMO crushed on Tuesday. Poor southeast Nebraska in between both.


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#42
Clinton

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:24 PM

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Iowa/Northeast NE crushed on Monday. Northeast KS/KCMO crushed on Tuesday. Poor southeast Nebraska in between both.

Seems to good to be true for me in KC area!



#43
Grizzcoat

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:24 PM

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CMC also good for many on this sub-forum.



#44
Grizzcoat

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:30 PM

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#45
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:36 PM

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Ugh. Norfolk with the 10" on GFS. Thankfully I think it's an overblown amount.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#46
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:39 PM

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I'm not too worried about specific placement right now. It's 4 days out and we're looking at GFS. Both major ensembles are varying greatly.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#47
Money

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:49 PM

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Gem

http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=
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#48
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:27 PM

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Wow really? If you like a model run of the GFS, just wait a second..itll change! North and south of us...what the hell? BS

 

snku_acc.us_c.png


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#49
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:28 PM

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Honestly cut these amounts in half and were looking at a more reasonable situation.


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https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#50
james1976

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:38 PM

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Local met tonight on news had a map with a storm path that was identical to 0z GFS and said there will be systems every other day with at least light snow.