GRR ups the ante to 8" amnts..hmm
LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018
Confidence is increasing for a period of moderate snow Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night as sfc wave tracks along arctic
front draped across the lower Great Lakes. F-gen forcing should
be sufficient for banded precip and model soundings show lift
through a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone from Saturday
afternoon into the early morning hours of Sunday. As we have seen
recently, these type of f-gen events can bring locally heavy
amounts where the narrow bands pivot...so local amounts over 8
inches are possible by Sunday morning.
Cold air follows for Sunday but also low inversion heights as sfc
ridging builds in. Lake effect on Sunday and Monday should also be
limited by the low DGZ heights and subsequent diamond dust nature
of the snow crystals.
Lower confidence for Tuesday and Wednesday as fast flow brings
timing differences for snow potential from clippers and arctic
fropas during this period.
Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0" Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!
Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"
Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"
Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"
Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"
Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)
Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"
Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"
Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918
"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.." "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" “and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off” "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."