Super Bowl Weekend Snow

[Tom]

It seems like every year there is a system to track around GHD or the Super Bowl.  This won't be a larges system, but a system nonetheless that will lay down an accumulating snowfall across the region.  Let's discuss...

 

Overnight 00z EPS/GEFS ensembles seem to be holding onto the idea of a 1-3"...maybe 4" in spots near the GL's??

 

00z GEFS...

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

DMX not excited about this or even early next week. Light snow/flurries chances

[Tom]

Some of the ensemble members are picking up on a stronger southern feature on Sunday that transports more moisture north bound after the first initial wave on Sat/Sat pm.  This is an interesting change I've noticed over the last 24 hours.

[St Paul Storm]

This will be about as ‘spread the wealth’ as you can get for a sub forum this large. MPX calling for 1-3” with the higher totals in eastern MN/ western WI. Maybe of more significance here will be the wind chills. Headlines being considered for Sat/Sun.

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings not excited either, says models really cutting back on precipitation amounts. What looked like great chances 24 hours ago, looking less likely. Winter 2017-2018 ladies and gentlemen.

[Tom]

00z GEFS members...some good hits, some not...I think the best areas will be across the eastern sub forum...

[Niko]

Its only Wednesday. Couple days available to track this. Friday is when to start taking forecasts seriously.

 

Per NOAA:

 

A developing clipper system will bring the
next opportunity for widespread accumulating snowfall on Saturday.
The shortwave will be embedded within a broad and relatively flat
upper level trough with a lower level sub tropical jet streams in
from the southwest providing additional lift. Models are in good
agreement on the occurrence of this event, but uncertainty still
remains with snowfall amounts. Will have to keep an eye on this
system and moisture availability in subsequent forecasts.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm thinking 1-2" at most from this first wave, assuming it doesn't just pass to our West.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX put in likely wording for snow Sunday but said QPF is looking rather low.

[Madtown]

started out on Monday with Snow likely wording Sat and Sunday, down to snow showers sat...lol

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is saying that Ptype could be an issue for both waves here.

[Tom]

So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player than initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.

[gosaints]

So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player tan initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.

Not a bad signal for ensembles at this range

[Tony]

So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player tan initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.

Don't you dare try to get me sucked back into this snow "potential" for this weekend!!

[Minny_Weather]

Ensembles actually don't look like trash here for the Sunday wave. A few are showing advisory levels.

[Tom]

12z Euro looks good for C NE/WI/IL/MIN IN for atleast a couple inches or more of snow. E NE/IA are in for 1-2” it looks like on this run.

[jaster220]

So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player than initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.

 

Yeah, that surface map in the Feb thread with the two 1010 SLP's had the look of possible phasing. Would be such a great surprise if we finally got one to work out that way for all..

[Madtown]

more than 1 or 2? Any maps?

[bud2380]

This is the Euro through 7 days.  Major change from last night for the early week clipper.  Much much weaker.  

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018013112/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_168.png

[Minny_Weather]

10:1 maps won't work for this event. There will be wind to dumb down ratios a bit, but I still think we'll be looking at well over 10:1 for this.

[CentralNebWeather]

Maps change so much from run to run, it is difficult to even follow at times.  I have gone from many inches of snow to very little in just 1 run.  By tomorrow it might bump up again or go to nothing.  One of the frustrating things about this winter, is that events that look very promising even a day out have usually weakened or moved dramatically.  

[St Paul Storm]

Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so.....

[Minny_Weather]

Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so.....

Yeah lol. Honestly not sure how well that'd bode for us. I'd think that scenario would have it breaking apart/fizzling before it got here.

[bud2380]

18Z GFS looks significantly different for the weekend too.  Models aren't wasting any time flip flopping.  

[Money]

More phasing this run for sure

[Minny_Weather]

Anything over 1" will be a bonus with the Sunday wave I think. I know models look better than that, but dry air concerns me for this. I feel like some people will be screwed over by that.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

D**n GFS looks great here but every run is COMPLETELY different. 

[bud2380]

thinking about moving to STL, but then I'd be expected to root for the Cardinals.  Forget it.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018013118/240/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[centralweather44]

d**n GFS looks great here but every run is COMPLETELY different.

To bad its the 18z

[Andrew NE]

All these waves are going to fun to track in the coming days. LRC lines up well from back around Dec 21st - Dec 29th, none of them were significant snows but we picked a few inches out of all them around Christmas time. Model watching has been crazy lately. Hope everyone can score some snow out of these.

[Clinton]

All these waves are going to fun to track in the coming days. LRC lines up well from back around Dec 21st - Dec 29th, none of them were significant snows but we picked a few inches out of all them around Christmas time. Model watching has been crazy lately. Hope everyone can score some snow out of these.

If I remember right it seems the models really had a hard time in Dec settling on a solution.  I wonder what part of this pattern gives them so much trouble?

[Andrew NE]

If I remember right it seems the models really had a hard time in Dec settling on a solution. I wonder what part of this pattern gives them so much trouble?

Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?

[Clinton]

Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?

I think that could be it, I have also noticed when the ridge is strong out west the models have a hard time as well.

[Minny_Weather]

Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?

Every model besides Euro performed horribly with the Christmas Eve snow here. Euro was good with the thought that there would be snow, but it was off by about 100 miles and continued to be until about right before.

[gosaints]

Have to take these one wave at a time. past that the rest of the waves are to far out

[jaster220]

GRR ups the ante to 8" amnts..hmm

 

LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)

Issued at 319 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018

 

Confidence is increasing for a period of moderate snow Saturday

afternoon into Saturday night as sfc wave tracks along arctic

front draped across the lower Great Lakes. F-gen forcing should

be sufficient for banded precip and model soundings show lift

through a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone from Saturday

afternoon into the early morning hours of Sunday. As we have seen

recently, these type of f-gen events can bring locally heavy

amounts where the narrow bands pivot...so local amounts over 8

inches are possible by Sunday morning.

 

Cold air follows for Sunday but also low inversion heights as sfc

ridging builds in. Lake effect on Sunday and Monday should also be

limited by the low DGZ heights and subsequent diamond dust nature

of the snow crystals.

 

Lower confidence for Tuesday and Wednesday as fast flow brings

timing differences for snow potential from clippers and arctic

fropas during this period.

[Niko]

Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so.....

Another 6"+ for me in the works??!!

[Money]

Gfs looking good for WI/MI/IL

[Jaycee]

Another 6"+ for me in the works??!!

 

[Grizzcoat]