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Super Bowl Weekend Snow

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#51
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:43 PM

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Wow really? If you like a model run of the GFS, just wait a second..itll change! North and south of us...what the hell? BS

snku_acc.us_c.png


I must say I love the extremely convenient donut hole we're in.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#52
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 January 2018 - 10:32 PM

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Accumulating snow north south east and west of eastern Nebraska...wonderful. Cant stand this s**t.


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https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#53
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 31 January 2018 - 10:38 PM

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the bubble of barely nothing over us lol

 

hQ24MaL.jpg


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#54
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 February 2018 - 02:05 AM

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06Z GFS-Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_132.gif   69.18KB   1 downloads



#55
GDR

Posted 01 February 2018 - 02:21 AM

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Gfs is starting to come together

#56
james1976

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:09 AM

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Gettin a bit interesting. Even Euro wasnt bad for mby.

#57
james1976

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:05 AM

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DMX sure isnt impressed. Saying an inch or less for each round.

#58
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:10 AM

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Hastings not impressed. Did says that models change so much from run to run that confidence in the forecast is below average. If things don’t change much in the next 2 weeks then bring on Spring.
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#59
Niko

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:12 AM

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Per NOAA:

 

Clipper system embedded within the broader upper trough over the
region will impact Michigan on Saturday which will begin an active
weekend ahead. Accumulating snowfall will get under way on Saturday
as the clipper swings through the area. On Sunday, a southern stream
wave of energy is forecast to move northward and potentially merge
with the northern stream wave sending a surface low pressure system
through the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. Uncertainty for Sunday still
exists as models are in a little disagreement how this will play
out. If the systems do merge, a good snowfall event should unfold
over southeast Michigan.
At this point, there is increasing
confidence in widespread snowfall accumulation of an inch or greater
for all of southeast Michigan for Sunday.


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#60
Tony

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:22 AM

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Runs seem to be getting better but still not going to get too excited until at least tomorrow. If we can get these waves to completely phase(weekend system) then we could be looking at warning snows. The system after this one really has peaked my interest and has the chance to lay down some very heavy snow and I think will be the better of the 2 systems. Interesting to see most models jumping on board.


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#61
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:39 AM

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OAX is far from impressed. Of course, they have their Northeast Nebraska boner again, but they only say 1.5" for them even.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#62
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:07 AM

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DMX sure isnt impressed. Saying an inch or less for each round.

Beerends wrote it. She is one of the worst (biased) winter forecasters I have ever come across. And talk about a crappy last name....Beer ends? 



#63
Money

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:07 AM

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Nam with 5-7 for here

I’ll take it

#64
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:14 AM

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NAM brings a heavy band thru here, but there's no accumulation. Wtf? There's 84 hour NAM.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#65
gosaints

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:17 AM

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Not even close to the NAMS wheelhouse. Way to far away

#66
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:28 AM

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Not even close to the NAMS wheelhouse. Way to far away


The NAM has a wheelhouse? Maybe inside 12 hours I guess.
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#67
james1976

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:34 AM

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Beerends wrote it. She is one of the worst (biased) winter forecasters I have ever come across. And talk about a crappy last name....Beer ends?

Lmao!

#68
Illinois_WX

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:40 AM

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Beerends wrote it. She is one of the worst (biased) winter forecasters I have ever come across. And talk about a crappy last name....Beer ends? 

 

 

Disregard her. Beer never ends.

 

 

However, that doughnut hole is very glorious. What a beaut. It's funny because I could actually see it happening, I'm not ruling anything out at this point.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#69
Madtown

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:57 AM

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Gfs looking promising here....same as the rest of the winter...i believe it when it's on the ground
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#70
jaster220

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:58 AM

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Disregard her. Beer never ends.

 

 

However, that doughnut hole is very glorious. What a beaut. It's funny because I could actually see it happening, I'm not ruling anything out at this point.

 

:lol: .... :huh:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#71
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:08 AM

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Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_129.gif   68.63KB   0 downloads



#72
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:26 AM

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Attached File  gem_asnow_ncus_22.png   149.78KB   0 downloads



#73
NEJeremy

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:27 AM

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OAX is far from impressed. Of course, they have their Northeast Nebraska boner again, but they only say 1.5" for them even.

12Z GFS likes northeast Nebraska again. Norfolk will get a foot by Monday :lol:



#74
james1976

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:30 AM

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Bigtime spread the wealth at least
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#75
Niko

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:47 AM

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If the 2 phase, then,some meaningful snows will fall.



#76
BLIZZARD09

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:54 AM

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Runs seem to be getting better but still not going to get too excited until at least tomorrow. If we can get these waves to completely phase(weekend system) then we could be looking at warning snows. The system after this one really has peaked my interest and has the chance to lay down some very heavy snow and I think will be the better of the 2 systems. Interesting to see most models jumping on board.

hope after all?


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#77
Tony

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:56 AM

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hope after all?

A glimmer of hope but that is all I am willing to give atm.



#78
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:25 AM

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OAX has zero chance for snow on Tuesday. Interesting.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#79
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:26 AM

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MPX issued a special weather statement for Minneapolis and St Paul to alert the estimated 1 million people in town for the Superbowl that cold weather can cause frostbite and hypothermia. Judging by how some people around town aren’t dressed for the weather, I’ll say there may be a few issues this weekend.
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#80
jaster220

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:30 AM

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Per the 12z GFS, it's not a heavy thumper snow, but more a longer duration moderate snowfall. Not a bad look tho from this range I like it personally. Prolly won't meet 8"/24hrs for a Watch/Warn, and we all know how GRR rolls with that anyways.. :rolleyes: 

 

Has snow flying d*amn near 30hrs over mby. I'd take that.. :lol: 

 

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh60-90.gif   1.23MB   1 downloads

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#81
BrianJK

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:38 AM

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A glimmer of hope but that is all I am willing to give atm.


Good call

#82
Niko

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:42 AM

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Per the 12z GFS, it's not a heavy thumper snow, but more a longer duration moderate snowfall. Not a bad look tho from this range I like it personally. Prolly won't meet 8"/24hrs for a Watch/Warn, and we all know how GRR rolls with that anyways.. :rolleyes: 

 

Has snow flying d*amn near 30hrs over mby. I'd take that.. :lol: 

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh60-90.gif

Nice long duration of snow. :D


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#83
bud2380

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:45 AM

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UK - most of what you see in Iowa is the Monday/Tuesday system.

 

 Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_132.png   218.52KB   3 downloads



#84
jaster220

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:46 AM

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Nice long duration of snow. :D

 

Accuwx has you for 4-8" Sat-Sunday attm, so trend is our friend for sure! Gonna be watching footballs and snow fly at the same time - woohoo! 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#85
Niko

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:49 AM

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Accuwx has you for 4-8" Sat-Sunday attm, so trend is our friend for sure! Gonna be watching footballs and snow fly at the same time - woohoo! 

All depends if a phase occurs. If it does, then, look-out.

 

Euro looks great! Ova 1inch for MBY.



#86
Tony

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:54 AM

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All depends if a phase occurs. If it does, then, look-out.

 

Euro looks great! Ova 1inch for MBY.

It's really trying to phase and if it does you guys have a better chance farther east of seeing some darn good snows.


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#87
Illinois_WX

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:55 AM

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UK - most of what you see in Iowa is the Monday/Tuesday system.

 

 attachicon.gifukmet_acc_precip_conus_132.png

 

 

HOW. I mean that little tiny dome is right over us! For the love of god, how are models in agreement with that lol CMONNN MANNN


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#88
Niko

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:59 AM

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It's really trying to phase and if it does you guys have a better chance farther east of seeing some darn good snows.

Hopefully, by tomorrow, models will have a better handle of this. It is looking very interesting though, that's for sure.



#89
jaster220

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:07 AM

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It's really trying to phase and if it does you guys have a better chance farther east of seeing some darn good snows.

 

We don't even need a full phase, just enough to pump some Gulf moisture into this, and yeah, unfortunately for NIL, it's gonna be just a bit east of you guys, but you could get a boost off the lake on a easterly flow


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#90
Tony

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:19 AM

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We don't even need a full phase, just enough to pump some Gulf moisture into this, and yeah, unfortunately for NIL, it's gonna be just a bit east of you guys, but you could get a boost off the lake on a easterly flow

Yea, lake enhancement is always a nice bonus when it does happen for our area.


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#91
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:21 AM

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At least Euro screws everyone. Except Norfolk.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#92
Tony

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:25 AM

Tony

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At least Euro screws everyone. Except Norfolk.

Pretty much nada on this run. What a difference 12 hrs makes.



#93
gosaints

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:26 AM

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At least Euro screws everyone. Except Norfolk.

Looks pretty good for Money 



#94
Money

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:28 AM

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Looking solid for 4-6 ish here based on the 12z

#95
gosaints

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:29 AM

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Looking solid for 4-6 ish here based on the 12z

u r due... 


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#96
gosaints

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Models do seem to be cutting total qpf output



#97
gosaints

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:37 AM

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Models do seem to be cutting total qpf output

Unless you live in Indiana and Ohio



#98
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:37 AM

LNK_Weather

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Euro with about 4" between the two systems here. I'd take that and run with it.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.7"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#99
gosaints

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:42 AM

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Euro with about 4" between the two systems here. I'd take that and run with it.

Highly doubt ratios are much above 10:1



#100
bud2380

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Euro is flip flopping like crazy for the early week system. Only jumped about 500 miles from the 00z run.