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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1
Deweydog

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:01 PM

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Grab you Paxil® as we hit the home stretch of this poodle skirt wearing, early cold war throw back of a winter and transition into cold spring hyperbole.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2
TT-SEA

Posted 31 January 2018 - 03:42 PM

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Grab you Paxil® as we hit the home stretch of this poodle skirt wearing, early cold war throw back of a winter and transition into cold spring hyperbole.

 

Given the persistence of the rain in January (which will continue into the first part of February)... I am more optimistic that spring will not be a complete train wreck based on historical data.    



#3
Front Ranger

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:19 PM

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Given the persistence of the rain in January (which will continue into the first part of February)... I am more optimistic that spring will not be a complete train wreck based on historical data.    

 

Definitely due for some real, deep western troughing. Which in the spring is often pretty pleasant in the Seattle area, though not super dry.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#4
TT-SEA

Posted 31 January 2018 - 05:37 PM

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Definitely due for some real, deep western troughing. Which in the spring is often pretty pleasant in the Seattle area, though not super dry.

 

Agreed.



#5
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:14 PM

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Part of me wonders if we might have an inverse progression compared to last year, with some warmth in March/April then a flip to cool in May. Running some ENSO/QBO analogs assuming declining solar forcing through the year, many analogs do follow such a progression, so long as they don’t progress into +ENSO.
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#6
TT-SEA

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:18 PM

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Part of me wonders if we might have an inverse progression compared to last year, with some warmth in March/April then a flip to cool in May. Running some ENSO/QBO analogs assuming declining solar forcing through the year, many analogs do follow such a progression, so long as they don’t progress into +ENSO.

 

You are all over the place, Phil.

 

Based on your prediction... I am expecting to miss out on the sunniest, warmest second half of February in our history and return home to a nightmare spring from March until mid-August.  

 

But now maybe March and April are going to be beautiful.

 

The latest EPS runs do not make me think that I am going to miss out on an extended sunny, warm period beginning in the middle of February.    ;)



#7
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:21 PM

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We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now.

https://www.tropical...18013118&fh=-18

Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring.

Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#8
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:24 PM

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Also, if we do pull off a legitimate SSW/PV kill shot with favorable EP fluxes/WHEM forcing, the “progressive” pattern being modeled in the extended range will almost certainly bust.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#9
Timmy

Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:58 PM

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We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now.

https://www.tropical...18013118&fh=-18

Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring.

Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards.

En ingleis pot favor

#10
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 January 2018 - 07:49 PM

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It's like Phil is having a conversation with himself.....

#11
MossMan

Posted 31 January 2018 - 07:51 PM

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Can you believe we are already into February (in 4hrs) crazy!

Well Presidents Day is when all arctic hell breaks loose on the Pacific Northwest!
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#12
HighlandExperience

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:21 PM

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Californians 

 

Lake-Tahoe.jpg



#13
MossMan

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:28 PM

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Saw this at work today...

Attached Files



#14
BLI snowman

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:30 PM

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Saw this at work today...

 

No freezes for a month will do that.



#15
TT-SEA

Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:42 PM

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Saw this at work today...

 

post-30-0-80905600-1517459287.jpeg

 

I saw the same thing in Issaquah yesterday... refrained from posting a pic though.

 

Cherry blossoms in January is interesting.    Some small bushes in our yard are starting to leaf out too.    I actually thought those same bushes were dead last year in early March when they were still dormant and showing no signs of budding.   All it took was a low solar, blocky La Nina to get us back to a ridiculously mild winter.



#16
TT-SEA

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:27 PM

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Californians 

 

Lake-Tahoe.jpg

 

But when skiing is good at Tahoe... its absolutely gorgeous.

 

fa31c3b22e29d0116cad9409a3d53aee.jpg


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#17
Bryant

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:28 PM

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It's like Phil is having a conversation with himself.....


Some people read his posts and enjoy them, you obviously are not in that group

#18
Front Ranger

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:30 PM

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But when skiing is good at Tahoe... its absolutely gorgeous.

 

fa31c3b22e29d0116cad9409a3d53aee.jpg

 

Yeah, not many places in the world you can ski with that kind of lake view. Pretty sweet.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#19
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:41 PM

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Some people read his posts and enjoy them, you obviously are not in that group


Hmm, not what I said, but you gotta be honest, when he posts 4 or 5 in a row the way he does sometimes it appears as though he is replying to himself.

I honestly am coming around to some of what he says, at least what is understandable to the layman weenie!!

#20
tomas

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:44 PM

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     avnmr1.144hr.png  
                        
  "MiniRidge" B)



#21
Phil

Posted 31 January 2018 - 09:51 PM

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Boom b*tch, get’ out da’ way.

https://www.tropical...18020100&fh=-36
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#22
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 31 January 2018 - 10:46 PM

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We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now.

https://www.tropical...18013118&fh=-18

Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring.

Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards.

 

I will take anything that will attempt to shake up this post 2013 pattern that has been wreaking havoc on California and that will put this terrible 2017-18 season out of its misery!


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#23
seattleweatherguy

Posted 31 January 2018 - 11:03 PM

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Boom b*tch, get’ out da’ way.

https://www.tropical...18020100&fh=-36


End if it looks cold

#24
richard mann

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:32 AM

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=312302


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---twitter_logo-t12.png

#25
Geos

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:22 AM

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I saw the same thing in Issaquah yesterday... refrained from posting a pic though.

 

Cherry blossoms in January is interesting.    Some small bushes in our yard are starting to leaf out too.    I actually thought those same bushes were dead last year in early March when they were still dormant and showing no signs of budding.   All it took was a low solar, blocky La Nina to get us back to a ridiculously mild winter.

 

Haven't seen any evidence of of spring yet, except for the daffodils coming up (still under 2" tall). Last freeze was on the 3rd here. Pretty crazy for January.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#26
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:28 AM

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Haven't seen any evidence of of spring yet, except for the daffodils coming up (still under 2" tall). Last freeze was on the 3rd here. Pretty crazy for January.


I am sure at least the grass is all lush green there. You must not remember how dormant things were one year ago at this time.



#27
Geos

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:36 AM

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I am sure the grass is all lush green there. You must not remember how dormant things were one year ago at this time.

 

O yeah the grass is green. Still not long enough to mow it though.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#28
Chris

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:38 AM

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Boom b*tch, get’ out da’ way.

https://www.tropical...18020100&fh=-36

 

Too bad it's clown range GFS.



#29
Chris

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:43 AM

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This is Phil's link showing the SSW.gfs_Tz10_nhem_fh96-324.gif



#30
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:52 AM

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gfs_Tz10_nhem_fh96-324.gif

 

 

I am confused.    That says its the 00Z GFS run from last night.  

 

That loop ends at 324 hours... which is the morning of 2/14.    Here is the 850mb temp anomaly map from the 00Z GFS at that time... 

 

 

gfs_T850a_namer_48.png



#31
Timmy

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:55 AM

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I am confused. That says its the 00Z GFS run from last night.

That loop ends at 324 hours... which is the morning of 2/14. Here is the 850mb temp anomaly map from the 00Z GFS at that time...


gfs_T850a_namer_48.png


And the surface temp anomaly map:

gfs_T2ma_namer_48.png


Yeah it made me look at the run from last night which is not good and not sure what the map they are posting is trying to get at.

#32
Chris

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:58 AM

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I am confused.    That says its the 00Z GFS run from last night.  

 

That loop ends at 324 hours... which is the morning of 2/14.    Here is the 850mb temp anomaly map from the 00Z GFS at that time... 

 

 

gfs_T850a_namer_48.png

 

I posted a gif for the link that Phil provided.  It shows temps at the top of the atmosphere. He was showing what the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)would look like. I believe his point was the cold air at that level triggers convection over the warm Pacific waters.



#33
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:00 AM

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I posted a gif for the link that Phil provided. It shows temps at the top of the atmosphere. He was showing what the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)would look like. I believe his point was the cold air at that level triggers convection over the warm Pacific waters.


Ahhhhh. Certainly misleading in regard to what is happening lower in the atmosphere.

#34
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:06 AM

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Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring.   They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle.   

 

According to Wikipedia...

 

Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.


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#35
Kayla

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:10 AM

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Ahhhhh. Certainly misleading in regard to what is happening lower in the atmosphere.

 

That graphic just shows a stratospheric warming event to me... #mildfebruary


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#36
FroYoBro

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:10 AM

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Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring.   They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle.   

 

According to Wikipedia...

 

Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.

Great research. 



#37
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:10 AM

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That graphic just shows a stratospheric warming event to me... #mildfebruary

 

Yeah... my knowledge of that stuff is so limited.   Always learning though!  


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#38
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:12 AM

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Currenly 41 degrees with drizzle. 🤮

#39
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:12 AM

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Great research. 

 

It is noticeable though... winter mornings are so dead quiet and when the birds become active in the morning again it feels more like spring.  



#40
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:13 AM

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Currenly 41 degrees with drizzle.

 

Wednesday my friend.   Count down until Wednesday and the end of the drizzle.  :)



#41
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:31 AM

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I posted a gif for the link that Phil provided.  It shows temps at the top of the atmosphere. He was showing what the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)would look like. I believe his point was the cold air at that level triggers convection over the warm Pacific waters.

 

I thought the idea was that it would induce high pressure over the Arctic, dislodge the PV, and an Arctic blast "somewhere" in the lower latitudes. Never any guarantee who will actually benefit from that.


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#42
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:33 AM

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Wednesday my friend.   Count down until Wednesday and the end of the drizzle.  :)

 

Raining this morning. Up to 16 consecutive days with rain here now. This is turning out to be quite the streak.



#43
Chris

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:38 AM

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I thought the idea was that it would induce high pressure over the Arctic, dislodge the PV, and an Arctic blast "somewhere" in the lower latitudes. Never any guarantee who will actually benefit from that.

 

That is true too. 

 

Keep in mind this is the GFS .   Anyone have access to the ECMWF 10mb maps?



#44
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:43 AM

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Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring.   They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle.   

 

According to Wikipedia...

 

Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.

Tim you are coo coo.  :lol: 


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#45
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:00 AM

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Tim you are coo coo.  :lol:

 

My brother-in-law is an avid birder!   Maybe I am more in tune to birds because of him.   

 

But I would really have to be ignoring nature to not notice the morning doves singing away this morning after a couple months of dead quiet in the morning.    ;)



#46
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:13 AM

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My brother-in-law is an avid birder!   Maybe I am more in tune to birds because of him.   

 

But I would really have to be ignoring nature to not notice the morning doves singing away this morning after a couple months of dead quiet in the morning.    ;)

Speaking of birds, I have seen many bald eagles over at my property and was reminded of when they were on the endangered list and now they are all over the place. Awesome bird.


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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#47
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Speaking of birds, I have seen many bald eagles over at my property and was reminded of when they were on the endangered list and now they are all over the place. Awesome bird.

 

Yeah... we see them all the time when we are out on the boat on Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish.   



#48
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:28 AM

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Yeah... we see them all the time when we are out on the boat on Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish.   

It's amazing how brave the crows are because I see them chasing the eagles all the time. 


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#49
Timmy

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:31 AM

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Gem is super backdoor cold for day 7-8

#50
Bryant

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:56 AM

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Ahhhhh. Certainly misleading in regard to what is happening lower in the atmosphere.


It wasn't misleading... the atmosphere isn't a 1:1 with the surface 😂
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