February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Grab you Paxil® as we hit the home stretch of this poodle skirt wearing, early cold war throw back of a winter and transition into cold spring hyperbole.

[TT-SEA]

Grab you Paxil® as we hit the home stretch of this poodle skirt wearing, early cold war throw back of a winter and transition into cold spring hyperbole.

 

Given the persistence of the rain in January (which will continue into the first part of February)... I am more optimistic that spring will not be a complete train wreck based on historical data.    

[Front Ranger]

Given the persistence of the rain in January (which will continue into the first part of February)... I am more optimistic that spring will not be a complete train wreck based on historical data.    

 

Definitely due for some real, deep western troughing. Which in the spring is often pretty pleasant in the Seattle area, though not super dry.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely due for some real, deep western troughing. Which in the spring is often pretty pleasant in the Seattle area, though not super dry.

 

Agreed.

[Phil]

Part of me wonders if we might have an inverse progression compared to last year, with some warmth in March/April then a flip to cool in May. Running some ENSO/QBO analogs assuming declining solar forcing through the year, many analogs do follow such a progression, so long as they don’t progress into +ENSO.

[TT-SEA]

Part of me wonders if we might have an inverse progression compared to last year, with some warmth in March/April then a flip to cool in May. Running some ENSO/QBO analogs assuming declining solar forcing through the year, many analogs do follow such a progression, so long as they don’t progress into +ENSO.

 

You are all over the place, Phil.

 

Based on your prediction... I am expecting to miss out on the sunniest, warmest second half of February in our history and return home to a nightmare spring from March until mid-August.  

 

But now maybe March and April are going to be beautiful.

 

The latest EPS runs do not make me think that I am going to miss out on an extended sunny, warm period beginning in the middle of February.   

[Phil]

We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018013118&fh=-18

 

Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring.

 

Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards.

[Phil]

Also, if we do pull off a legitimate SSW/PV kill shot with favorable EP fluxes/WHEM forcing, the “progressive” pattern being modeled in the extended range will almost certainly bust.

[Timmy]

We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018013118&fh=-18

 

Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring.

 

Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards.

En ingleis pot favor

[GHweatherChris]

It's like Phil is having a conversation with himself.....

[MossMan]

Can you believe we are already into February (in 4hrs) crazy!

 

Well Presidents Day is when all arctic hell breaks loose on the Pacific Northwest!

[HighlandExperience]

Californians 

 

http://nederlandliving.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Lake-Tahoe.jpg

[MossMan]

Saw this at work today...

[BLI snowman]

Saw this at work today...

 

No freezes for a month will do that.

[TT-SEA]

Saw this at work today...

 

 

I saw the same thing in Issaquah yesterday... refrained from posting a pic though.

 

Cherry blossoms in January is interesting.    Some small bushes in our yard are starting to leaf out too.    I actually thought those same bushes were dead last year in early March when they were still dormant and showing no signs of budding.   All it took was a low solar, blocky La Nina to get us back to a ridiculously mild winter.

[TT-SEA]

Californians 

 

http://nederlandliving.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Lake-Tahoe.jpg

 

But when skiing is good at Tahoe... its absolutely gorgeous.

 

[Bryant]

It's like Phil is having a conversation with himself.....

Some people read his posts and enjoy them, you obviously are not in that group

[Front Ranger]

But when skiing is good at Tahoe... its absolutely gorgeous.

 

 

Yeah, not many places in the world you can ski with that kind of lake view. Pretty sweet.

[GHweatherChris]

Some people read his posts and enjoy them, you obviously are not in that group

Hmm, not what I said, but you gotta be honest, when he posts 4 or 5 in a row the way he does sometimes it appears as though he is replying to himself.

 

I honestly am coming around to some of what he says, at least what is understandable to the layman weenie!!

[tomas]

     http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr1.144hr.png  
                        
  "MiniRidge"

[Phil]

Boom b*tch, get’ out da’ way.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018020100&fh=-36

[Dan the Weatherman]

We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018013118&fh=-18

 

Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring.

 

Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards.

 

I will take anything that will attempt to shake up this post 2013 pattern that has been wreaking havoc on California and that will put this terrible 2017-18 season out of its misery!

[seattleweatherguy]

Boom b*tch, get’ out da’ way.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018020100&fh=-36

End if it looks cold

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=312302

[Geos]

I saw the same thing in Issaquah yesterday... refrained from posting a pic though.

 

Cherry blossoms in January is interesting.    Some small bushes in our yard are starting to leaf out too.    I actually thought those same bushes were dead last year in early March when they were still dormant and showing no signs of budding.   All it took was a low solar, blocky La Nina to get us back to a ridiculously mild winter.

 

Haven't seen any evidence of of spring yet, except for the daffodils coming up (still under 2" tall). Last freeze was on the 3rd here. Pretty crazy for January.

[TT-SEA]

Haven't seen any evidence of of spring yet, except for the daffodils coming up (still under 2" tall). Last freeze was on the 3rd here. Pretty crazy for January.

I am sure at least the grass is all lush green there. You must not remember how dormant things were one year ago at this time.

[Geos]

I am sure the grass is all lush green there. You must not remember how dormant things were one year ago at this time.

 

O yeah the grass is green. Still not long enough to mow it though.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

I am confused.    That says its the 00Z GFS run from last night.  

 

That loop ends at 324 hours... which is the morning of 2/14.    Here is the 850mb temp anomaly map from the 00Z GFS at that time... 

 

 

[Timmy]

I am confused. That says its the 00Z GFS run from last night.

 

That loop ends at 324 hours... which is the morning of 2/14. Here is the 850mb temp anomaly map from the 00Z GFS at that time...

 

 

 

 

And the surface temp anomaly map:

 

Yeah it made me look at the run from last night which is not good and not sure what the map they are posting is trying to get at.

[TT-SEA]

I posted a gif for the link that Phil provided. It shows temps at the top of the atmosphere. He was showing what the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)would look like. I believe his point was the cold air at that level triggers convection over the warm Pacific waters.

Ahhhhh. Certainly misleading in regard to what is happening lower in the atmosphere.

[TT-SEA]

Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring.   They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle.   

 

According to Wikipedia...

 

Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.

[Kayla]

Ahhhhh. Certainly misleading in regard to what is happening lower in the atmosphere.

 

That graphic just shows a stratospheric warming event to me... #mildfebruary

[FroYoBro]

Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring.   They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle.   

 

According to Wikipedia...

 

Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.

Great research. 

[TT-SEA]

That graphic just shows a stratospheric warming event to me... #mildfebruary

 

Yeah... my knowledge of that stuff is so limited.   Always learning though!  

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Great research. 

 

It is noticeable though... winter mornings are so dead quiet and when the birds become active in the morning again it feels more like spring.  

[TT-SEA]

Currenly 41 degrees with drizzle.

 

Wednesday my friend.   Count down until Wednesday and the end of the drizzle. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I posted a gif for the link that Phil provided.  It shows temps at the top of the atmosphere. He was showing what the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)would look like. I believe his point was the cold air at that level triggers convection over the warm Pacific waters.

 

I thought the idea was that it would induce high pressure over the Arctic, dislodge the PV, and an Arctic blast "somewhere" in the lower latitudes. Never any guarantee who will actually benefit from that.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wednesday my friend.   Count down until Wednesday and the end of the drizzle. 

 

Raining this morning. Up to 16 consecutive days with rain here now. This is turning out to be quite the streak.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring.   They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle.   

 

According to Wikipedia...

 

Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.

Tim you are coo coo.