Deweydog Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Grab you Paxil® as we hit the home stretch of this poodle skirt wearing, early cold war throw back of a winter and transition into cold spring hyperbole. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Grab you Paxil® as we hit the home stretch of this poodle skirt wearing, early cold war throw back of a winter and transition into cold spring hyperbole. Given the persistence of the rain in January (which will continue into the first part of February)... I am more optimistic that spring will not be a complete train wreck based on historical data. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Given the persistence of the rain in January (which will continue into the first part of February)... I am more optimistic that spring will not be a complete train wreck based on historical data. Definitely due for some real, deep western troughing. Which in the spring is often pretty pleasant in the Seattle area, though not super dry. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Definitely due for some real, deep western troughing. Which in the spring is often pretty pleasant in the Seattle area, though not super dry. Agreed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Part of me wonders if we might have an inverse progression compared to last year, with some warmth in March/April then a flip to cool in May. Running some ENSO/QBO analogs assuming declining solar forcing through the year, many analogs do follow such a progression, so long as they don’t progress into +ENSO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Part of me wonders if we might have an inverse progression compared to last year, with some warmth in March/April then a flip to cool in May. Running some ENSO/QBO analogs assuming declining solar forcing through the year, many analogs do follow such a progression, so long as they don’t progress into +ENSO. You are all over the place, Phil. Based on your prediction... I am expecting to miss out on the sunniest, warmest second half of February in our history and return home to a nightmare spring from March until mid-August. But now maybe March and April are going to be beautiful. The latest EPS runs do not make me think that I am going to miss out on an extended sunny, warm period beginning in the middle of February. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018013118&fh=-18 Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring. Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Also, if we do pull off a legitimate SSW/PV kill shot with favorable EP fluxes/WHEM forcing, the “progressive” pattern being modeled in the extended range will almost certainly bust. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018013118&fh=-18 Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring. Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards.En ingleis pot favor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 It's like Phil is having a conversation with himself..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Can you believe we are already into February (in 4hrs) crazy! Well Presidents Day is when all arctic hell breaks loose on the Pacific Northwest! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Californians http://nederlandliving.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Lake-Tahoe.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Saw this at work today... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Saw this at work today... No freezes for a month will do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Saw this at work today... I saw the same thing in Issaquah yesterday... refrained from posting a pic though. Cherry blossoms in January is interesting. Some small bushes in our yard are starting to leaf out too. I actually thought those same bushes were dead last year in early March when they were still dormant and showing no signs of budding. All it took was a low solar, blocky La Nina to get us back to a ridiculously mild winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Californians http://nederlandliving.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Lake-Tahoe.jpg But when skiing is good at Tahoe... its absolutely gorgeous. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 It's like Phil is having a conversation with himself.....Some people read his posts and enjoy them, you obviously are not in that group Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 But when skiing is good at Tahoe... its absolutely gorgeous. Yeah, not many places in the world you can ski with that kind of lake view. Pretty sweet. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Some people read his posts and enjoy them, you obviously are not in that groupHmm, not what I said, but you gotta be honest, when he posts 4 or 5 in a row the way he does sometimes it appears as though he is replying to himself. I honestly am coming around to some of what he says, at least what is understandable to the layman weenie!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomas Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr1.144hr.png "MiniRidge" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Boom b*tch, get’ out da’ way. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018020100&fh=-36 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 We might actually have a SSW on our hands during the middle of February, folks. Lots of EPS/GEFS members pull a real wave-2/split job and kill the vortex now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018013118&fh=-18 Even if it’s occurring too late to make the necessary boreal winter connections for the PNW, it could aid in completing the QBO cycle, cooling/raising the equatorial tropopause, deepening the tropical convection, and retracing the z-cells right as we head into boreal spring. Lots of wild cards either way. I like wild cards. I will take anything that will attempt to shake up this post 2013 pattern that has been wreaking havoc on California and that will put this terrible 2017-18 season out of its misery! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Boom b*tch, get’ out da’ way. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018020100&fh=-36End if it looks cold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 (.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=312302 1 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 I saw the same thing in Issaquah yesterday... refrained from posting a pic though. Cherry blossoms in January is interesting. Some small bushes in our yard are starting to leaf out too. I actually thought those same bushes were dead last year in early March when they were still dormant and showing no signs of budding. All it took was a low solar, blocky La Nina to get us back to a ridiculously mild winter. Haven't seen any evidence of of spring yet, except for the daffodils coming up (still under 2" tall). Last freeze was on the 3rd here. Pretty crazy for January. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Haven't seen any evidence of of spring yet, except for the daffodils coming up (still under 2" tall). Last freeze was on the 3rd here. Pretty crazy for January.I am sure at least the grass is all lush green there. You must not remember how dormant things were one year ago at this time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 I am sure the grass is all lush green there. You must not remember how dormant things were one year ago at this time. O yeah the grass is green. Still not long enough to mow it though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 I am confused. That says its the 00Z GFS run from last night. That loop ends at 324 hours... which is the morning of 2/14. Here is the 850mb temp anomaly map from the 00Z GFS at that time... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 I am confused. That says its the 00Z GFS run from last night. That loop ends at 324 hours... which is the morning of 2/14. Here is the 850mb temp anomaly map from the 00Z GFS at that time... And the surface temp anomaly map: Yeah it made me look at the run from last night which is not good and not sure what the map they are posting is trying to get at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 I posted a gif for the link that Phil provided. It shows temps at the top of the atmosphere. He was showing what the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)would look like. I believe his point was the cold air at that level triggers convection over the warm Pacific waters.Ahhhhh. Certainly misleading in regard to what is happening lower in the atmosphere. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring. They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle. According to Wikipedia... Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Ahhhhh. Certainly misleading in regard to what is happening lower in the atmosphere. That graphic just shows a stratospheric warming event to me... #mildfebruary Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring. They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle. According to Wikipedia... Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.Great research. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 That graphic just shows a stratospheric warming event to me... #mildfebruary Yeah... my knowledge of that stuff is so limited. Always learning though! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Great research. It is noticeable though... winter mornings are so dead quiet and when the birds become active in the morning again it feels more like spring. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Currenly 41 degrees with drizzle. Wednesday my friend. Count down until Wednesday and the end of the drizzle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 I posted a gif for the link that Phil provided. It shows temps at the top of the atmosphere. He was showing what the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)would look like. I believe his point was the cold air at that level triggers convection over the warm Pacific waters. I thought the idea was that it would induce high pressure over the Arctic, dislodge the PV, and an Arctic blast "somewhere" in the lower latitudes. Never any guarantee who will actually benefit from that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Wednesday my friend. Count down until Wednesday and the end of the drizzle. Raining this morning. Up to 16 consecutive days with rain here now. This is turning out to be quite the streak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Mourning doves were singing this morning when I went out to get the paper... that is a new and always a sign of spring. They must not care about this perpetual warm front drizzle. According to Wikipedia... Just as the mockingbird in the southern states bursts suddenly into song and separates winter from spring, so the male mourning dove, who has been silent through the winter, at the first hint of spring begins to coo.Tim you are coo coo. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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