Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 00z GFS is pretty worthless. Too far away with that Tuesday low. Some flurries making it here but otherwise nothing. I guess it did trend in the right direction slightly. I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS never figures it out until the event is here haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I’ve clouded up here. This often happens with a strong NW wind. The winds push up against the foothills east of me and it becomes cloud city and my low temps are modified. I hate it.What’s your temp? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Getting some flurry action here. Down to 30. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Haha, yeah blast was huge, estimates range from 47,000 to 64,000ft. Question is, how long does it last? That is a pretty good shot alright. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Looks like this snow band is wrapping around as it heads off to the SE. Could possibly see continued snow the next few hours or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Saturday morning looks good for W. WA. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I've been trying to play along that I'm hopeful about the subsequent possible snow events, but I'm in the mood now to just be real about it. In general Seattle does terrible with lows that slide down the coast. We need them to make landfall over SW WA to really have any chance at anything good. Another rule of thumb I've noticed is Seattle doesn't do well when the Western trough plunges very far south like this one is doing. This pattern simply doesn't allow systems to move inland anywhere near a favorable location for us. NW OR is closer to the coast and the systems are in the process of moving closer to the coast as they move south. The one we should have scored with was today's system. The big question is why are so many cold waves coming without getting decent snowfall here. If you look at past decades it was much less common for the Puget Sound region to fail like this. At this point I'm just going to live with it and count the days until I can move to a better area. It's as simple as that. Remember that areas north of Seattle were absolutely buried today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 That is a pretty good shot alright.Yeah, 17km is yuuge. It’s not easy to measure the height of an ash cloud, though. Especially the big ones. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 GEM is great Tuesday night for PDX and the valley. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Fun 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 GEM isn't as good as ICON or GFS for next weekend. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 What’s your temp?28. I was hoping to get below 20 but not likely. Maybe tomorrow night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Saturday morning looks good for W. WA. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 00z GEM is still on board 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I see Tahoe is getting some snow this evening. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dairyd Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 href overnight temps. 850mb temps are already 15F lower than 24 hours ago (when we were ~34F) and forecast to drop another 5 degrees overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Remember that areas north of Seattle were absolutely buried today.I'm north and all I got was flurries! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I've been trying to play along that I'm hopeful about the subsequent possible snow events, but I'm in the mood now to just be real about it. In general Seattle does terrible with lows that slide down the coast. We need them to make landfall over SW WA to really have any chance at anything good. Another rule of thumb I've noticed is Seattle doesn't do well when the Western trough plunges very far south like this one is doing. This pattern simply doesn't allow systems to move inland anywhere near a favorable location for us. NW OR is closer to the coast and the systems are in the process of moving closer to the coast as they move south. The one we should have scored with was today's system. The big question is why are so many cold waves coming without getting decent snowfall here. If you look at past decades it was much less common for the Puget Sound region to fail like this. At this point I'm just going to live with it and count the days until I can move to a better area. It's as simple as that.I feel your pain snow_wizard. I wish you had gotten some snow today and I thought you would. That's just weather for you, it's so unpredictable. You still might get some snow on Tuesday and also later in the week, don't give up hope! Sometimes snow happens when you least expect it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS never figures it out until the event is here haha. Yeah it is possible but at least it is showing that deformation band signature. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 28. I was hoping to get below 20 but not likely. Maybe tomorrow nightMy guess is the temp will plummet when the north wind relaxes, and our snow cover will help as well. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Everything is certainly as clear as mud now. The GFS shows the pattern going too far west around a week out, although I'm far from convinced it's right yet. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 00z GEM is still on board 00z RGEM looks nice too. Snow starts a little earlier Tuesday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 This is freaky. Legitimately heavy ash fall already in villages closer to the volcano. http://m.medansatu.com/berita/39439/video-dahsyat-letusan-gunung-sinabung-siang-jadi-gelap-gulita/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Going to go outside and enjoy the snow. Be back later for the King EURO! ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 My guess is the temp will plummet when the north wind relaxes, and our snow cover will help as well.i just checked the radar and it looks like a small snow shower is moving north towards my area and maybe west to yours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I feel your pain snow_wizard. I wish you had gotten some snow today and I thought you would. That's just weather for you, it's so unpredictable. You still might get some snow on Tuesday and also later in the week, don't give up hope! Sometimes snow happens when you least expect it. I've talked to my wife extensively about my need to move and hopefully some of things we need to have play out will happen to make it possible sooner than later. January through April is just too depressing for me most years. No matter what the move will happen. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 This is freaky. Legitimately heavy ash fall already in villages closer to the volcano.http://m.medansatu.com/berita/39439/video-dahsyat-letusan-gunung-sinabung-siang-jadi-gelap-gulita/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitterStill playing his music lol. just another day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Front Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Remember that areas north of Seattle were absolutely buried today.No, they weren't. 1 area did well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Remember that areas north of Seattle were absolutely buried today.Just a narrow band. Most areas north of Seattle hardly saw much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I've talked to my wife extensively about my need to move and hopefully some of things we need to have play out will happen to make it possible sooner than later. January through April is just too depressing for me most years. No matter what the move will happen. January through April is only 4 months though. Most places suck for at least part of the year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Going to go outside and enjoy the snow. Be back later for the King EURO! ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄ I'm pretty impressed that this precip is still hanging around and looks pretty healthy. That wrap around looks like it just might even make it into some parts of the western metro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I've been trying to play along that I'm hopeful about the subsequent possible snow events, but I'm in the mood now to just be real about it. In general Seattle does terrible with lows that slide down the coast. We need them to make landfall over SW WA to really have any chance at anything good. Another rule of thumb I've noticed is Seattle doesn't do well when the Western trough plunges very far south like this one is doing. This pattern simply doesn't allow systems to move inland anywhere near a favorable location for us. NW OR is closer to the coast and the systems are in the process of moving closer to the coast as they move south. The one we should have scored with was today's system. The big question is why are so many cold waves coming without getting decent snowfall here. If you look at past decades it was much less common for the Puget Sound region to fail like this. At this point I'm just going to live with it and count the days until I can move to a better area. It's as simple as that. I agree with that sentiment, today's pattern was the one that should have delivered. Perhaps it was just a bit too progressive, without enough cold air in the BC interior. I can't think of many events with 500mb thicknesses falling to 514dm with such a wimpy Arctic "front". We did manage our first freeze of 2018 today, it's currently sitting around 30.5F. There are places that almost always score when it gets cold, the east side of Vancouver Island and north side of the Olympics have done very well these past 2 years. I'll probably eventually move back up to the Nanaimo-Parksville area, the climate at the southern tip of this island can be torture for a weather enthusiast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Just a narrow band. Most areas north of Seattle hardly saw much.Yep. Nothing at my house, but drove 20 minutes to get to a winter wonderland where there was 6+ inches. Gave me flashbacks to 2008 or 2012 seeing everything buried in snow. Was super cool. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 This is freaky. Legitimately heavy ash fall already in villages closer to the volcano. http://m.medansatu.com/berita/39439/video-dahsyat-letusan-gunung-sinabung-siang-jadi-gelap-gulita/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter Maybe this will help the cause to give us the post super nino global cooling we have been due for. Maybe about 10 of these will finally make it snow in Seattle. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Perry epic wrap around over Clark County right now. We really lucked out. Over an inch now and still snowing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Perry epic wrap around over Clark County right now. We really lucked out. Over an inch now and still snowing. I can't believe it is still going at basically the same spot. I'm pretty jelly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 We are incredibly unlucky here...no doubt about it. I'm sure the mid week event will be south of us too. I could easily envision us going through the entire cold wave with nothing here. It wasn't "nothing". It snowed here for nine hours today. It just didn't stick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 I agree with that sentiment, today's pattern was the one that should have delivered. Perhaps it was just a bit too progressive, without enough cold air in the BC interior. I can't think of many events with 500mb thicknesses falling to 514dm with such a wimpy Arctic "front". We did manage our first freeze of 2018 today, it's currently sitting around 30.5F. There are places that almost always score when it gets cold, the east side of Vancouver Island and north side of the Olympics have done very well these past 2 years. I'll probably eventually move back up to the Nanaimo-Parksville area, the climate at the southern tip of this island can be torture for a weather enthusiast. I think the thicknesses up there might even go lower than 514. I think having the cold air already in place in BC is important going into these. In this case it was advecting in as the pattern unfolded. I learned something new from this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Perry epic wrap around over Clark County right now. We really lucked out. Over an inch now and still snowing. Awesome, I think you guys up there hit the jackpot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 It wasn't "nothing". It snowed here for nine hours today. It just didn't stick. The water EQ here was pretty weak. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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