February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Tomorrow through Saturday morning presents an interesting question.  I think it's fairly likely the models are being too stingy with precip amounts for tomorrow for whatever reason.  I'm really liking Sat morning for snow in the EPSL as the flow turns NNW at the 850mb and 700mb levels.  The WRF has moisture and low 925mb temps early Saturday morning as well.  It is possible we could go through the period with no rain when looking at 925mb temps.  They will only spike to zero for a brief time east of Puget Sound.

[snow_wizard]

It was incredibly pretty here this morning just before sunrise when the snow was glowing under a crisp blue sky.  It dropped to 22 so everything was totally froze up and powdery.  Just doesn't get any better than that.  It is kind of disheartening how the late Feb sun eats the snow though.

 

Also worth noting SEA wiped out their weakest February record today when it dropped to 26 breaking the record of 30.  The 26 is right in line with many of the record this time of year.  I think this was their first record low in like 3 years or some such thing.

[wx_statman]

d**n shame PDX just barely brushed 40 today. With tomorrow looking cold they could have strung together four consecutive highs in the 30s, which has got to be getting into pretty rarefied territory for this late.

 

At least we stopped at 40, preserving a 4 day streak of 40 or lower. We have a shot at 5 tomorrow which would be a late-season record.

 

Looking back, only later streak of 4 days was from March 2-5, 1960. Next latest had been Feb. 12-15, 1990 so we just moved past that one with today's 40. March 1951 had a ridiculous stretch of 8 straight days 41 or lower, and Feb 1993 also had a 41 pop in to ruin what would have been a long streak. 

 

Current latest streak of 5 as well as 6 days was Feb 4-9, 2014. 

[wx_statman]

Continues to flurry lightly here. Been going on for about 3 hours, but too weak to accumulate with temps above freezing. Had some graupel mixed in earlier as well. 

[wx_statman]

Checking SEA numbers - today was the 5th consecutive high in the 30's. 

 

SEA did have 8 straight 30's at later points in the season:

 

March 3-10, 1951

Feb 24 - March 3, 1962

 

However, the current streak is the 3rd latest. Only other streak that's in the ballpark is 7 straight from Feb. 12-18, 1990. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Warmest spot in the State of Oregon tonight is Brookings. At 39.  With the way this winter had gone, that's pretty insane.

[seattleweatherguy]

If the nam was most accurate for the last snow maybe it's wise to trust it again this time around?

[MossMan]

00z 12km NAM shows a beautiful CZ work it's way down the Sound starting around Skagit County and working down through King County where it parks from 4PM Sunday to 4AM Monday. This is after it shows a CZ both Saturday morning and Saturday night.

 

These NW flow systems are great for CZs and they would allow more people, not just those with elevation, to score a couple inches. It will be a fun weekend of watching the radar.

Or 13” like convergence zone that dumped on me last weekend!

[Jesse]

At least we stopped at 40, preserving a 4 day streak of 40 or lower. We have a shot at 5 tomorrow which would be a late-season record.

 

Looking back, only later streak of 4 days was from March 2-5, 1960. Next latest had been Feb. 12-15, 1990 so we just moved past that one with today's 40. March 1951 had a ridiculous stretch of 8 straight days 41 or lower, and Feb 1993 also had a 41 pop in to ruin what would have been a long streak.

 

Current latest streak of 5 as well as 6 days was Feb 4-9, 2014.

Great info. Hard to imagine us getting above 40 tomorrow, so we may have that record in the bag. I love looking at all of those other cold stretches around this time of year too. This one stacks up pretty well all things considered.

 

Meanwhile, we need to get these debris clouds out of here now so we can set another record low tomorrow morning. The number to beat is 25 from 1993. Seems pretty doable if it clears out as forecast.

[Jbolin]

Or 13” like convergence zone that dumped on me last weekend!

[snow_wizard]

00z 12km NAM shows a beautiful CZ work it's way down the Sound starting around Skagit County and working down through King County where it parks from 4PM Sunday to 4AM Monday. This is after it shows a CZ both Saturday morning and Saturday night.

 

These NW flow systems are great for CZs and they would allow more people, not just those with elevation, to score a couple inches. It will be a fun weekend of watching the radar.

 

Indeed.  We should have several opportunities.  With true NW flow the C-Zones are likely to work further south than normal.  It has been strange watching how stingy the models have been with any snow chances for the Central Puget Sound.  Last night shows they are obviously far from perfect on that thought..

[snow_wizard]

SEA is on a great roll.  A -12 departure after a -14 yesterday.  Really solid cold snap.

 

IMBY I have had back to back 22 degree lows and tomorrow could go even lower.

[HighlandExperience]

Indeed. We should have several opportunities. With true NW flow the C-Zones are likely to work further south than normal. It has been strange watching how stingy the models have been with any snow chances for the Central Puget Sound. Last night shows they are obviously far from perfect on that thought..

So far the GFS 00z is looking nice for Puget Sound folks. Really hope this over performs.

 

Possibly a weekend to remember?

[High Desert Mat!]

I wonder, does the next storms clouds that are approaching going to cap the daytime heating to a minimum tomorrow? Cold night, then clouds move in late morning, sounds good to me.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Very impressive cold highs this week at PDX. I don't think anybody expected this. This is 2 straight winters now where I've received a foot or more of snow with several snow/ice storms both times. I'm already pumped up for next winter!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim likes snow.

[wx_statman]

Great info. Hard to imagine us getting above 40 tomorrow, so we may have that record in the bag. I love looking at all of those other cold stretches around this time of year too. This one stacks up pretty well all things considered.

 

Meanwhile, we need to get these debris clouds out of here now so we can set another record low tomorrow morning. The number to beat is 25 from 1993. Seems pretty doable if it clears out as forecast.

 

We could get greedy and hope for 27 before midnight, then 25 tomorrow. Two daily records. Although my gut feeling is that we won't drop too quickly before midnight. Clouds plus a little extra low level moisture from that flurry action. 

[Front Ranger]

OLM's back to back sub-freezing highs the previous two days are the latest such occurrence on record...except for 2011. 

 

With 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, and now 2018, February has seen quite the renaissance in recent years.

[Front Ranger]

Speaking of OLM, they're already down to 24 tonight. 

[Blizzard777]

Jim likes snow.

Be like Jim. Jim is smart

[bainbridgekid]

NWS Seattle says they are pondering putting up advisories and/or warnings tonight.

Where did you hear that?

[HighlandExperience]

[The Swamp]

I think it's possible this is a quick shot of snow and then mostly rain for most folks.  Hard to say if the flow switches from offshore to onshore and when.

 

I wouldn't put up any advisories.  If folks don't know by now that it's cold and it might snow, well, ta heck with em.

[The Swamp]

NWS Seattle says they are pondering putting up advisories and/or warnings tonight.

 

This would be a bad curse.  I hope they don't.

[MikeInEverett]

Wow, the GFS just keeps it going. Next Friday/Saturday looks potentially very snowy for WA.

[seattleweatherguy]

Bring it on!

[snow_wizard]

Jim likes snow.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like extensive snow coverage across the PNW today, though a few places have clearly been screwed:

 

[snow_wizard]

The models have certainly moved away from any rain threat at least through early evening tomorrow.  The million dollar question is how much moisture we will get.  Keep in mind it would normally be no big deal if we got .20 instead of .05 or whatever, but in this case the difference would be huge.

[seattleweatherguy]

The models have certainly moved away from any rain threat at least through early evening tomorrow. The million dollar question is how much moisture we will get. Keep in mind it would normally be no big deal if we got .20 instead of .05 or whatever, but in this case the difference would be huge.

So no rain this whole weekend?

[seattleweatherguy]

Dp are rising here

[snow_wizard]

So no rain this whole weekend?

 

I didn't say that.  I haven't looked much beyond Saturday morning in depth.  There could be rain between the exit of the current cold air mass and the arrival of the next one Saturday morning.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still quite a bit of snow here, though it's melted on most of the paved surfaces that saw any sun today. A few shots from the walk into the office today. It was quite the photogenic morning with fresh snow and blue skies.

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is late again.  D**n.

[TT-SEA]

Still quite a bit of snow here, though it's melted on most of the paved surfaces that saw any sun today. A few shots from the walk into the office today. It was quite the photogenic morning with fresh snow and blue skies.

 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely gorgeous pictures! 

 

That is not me pretending to be nice... they really are great.    Just wanted to be clear. 

[snow_wizard]

Still quite a bit of snow here, though it's melted on most of the paved surfaces that saw any sun today. A few shots from the walk into the office today. It was quite the photogenic morning with fresh snow and blue skies.

 

 

 

 

It was incredible this morning.  This is one of the few times this century I've had it snow here and be clear and cold the following morning.  That makes it very special.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is on a great roll.  A -12 departure after a -14 yesterday.  Really solid cold snap.

 

IMBY I have had back to back 22 degree lows and tomorrow could go even lower.

 

SEA puts up positive departures like that at times... but I cannot remember the last time they had negative departures of that magnitude.   That is impressive.   

[TT-SEA]

It was incredibly pretty here this morning just before sunrise when the snow was glowing under a crisp blue sky.  It dropped to 22 so everything was totally froze up and powdery.  Just doesn't get any better than that.  It is kind of disheartening how the late Feb sun eats the snow though.

 

Also worth noting SEA wiped out their weakest February record today when it dropped to 26 breaking the record of 30.  The 26 is right in line with many of the record this time of year.  I think this was their first record low in like 3 years or some such thing.

 

I mentioned this morning that I hoped you were able to take the morning off and enjoy it.   It looked stunning on the traffic cams this morning.

[Bryant]

Looks like extensive snow coverage across the PNW today, though a few places have clearly been screwed:

 

I wish the correlation of our homes scoring at the same time worked out this winter lol. Had about 2" in total this whole winter. Been a rough one

[Deweydog]

The WRF is late again. d**n.

You think it might be yours?

 

Muary Povich says you ARE the father!