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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#101
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:17 PM

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Most of the western half of the country is in desperate need for rain right now, as it has been very dry outside of Washington, Idaho, and Montana. I am hoping for a major pattern change that will bring beneficial rain and mountain snow to a large area of the west.

 

As usual when its dry across the most of the West... WA state is seriously wet.   

 

Looks like the pattern change after the ridge is going to be one that spreads the wealth a little and is more decent up here.    As of Saturday... it has rained in my area every day for a month straight.     That is unusually wet even for here in January.  



#102
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:40 PM

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I’m getting nervous about the rapidly expanding drought across the 4-Corners and Plains. Historically speaking, that’s a heatwave omen for most of the country during modern day -QBO/+meridional mode regimes.

Hopefully this changes soon.
  • Dan the Weatherman likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#103
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:41 PM

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FWIW, the drought doesn’t cause the pattern, but it’s certainly a result of a pattern that could promote poleward anticyclones (thus, heatwaves) during the warm season.

Not necessarily over the PNW. Just speaking generally.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#104
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:29 PM

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FWIW, the drought doesn’t cause the pattern, but it’s certainly a result of a pattern that could promote poleward anticyclones (thus, heatwaves) during the warm season.

Not necessarily over the PNW. Just speaking generally.


Well it feels like the last several summers have been the hottest since I moved here in 1989 so I'll be shocked if it's not another inferno here.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#105
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:31 PM

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I’m looking forward to watching the models catch onto the big -AO (2nd half of February onward) following the SSW event. Assuming it happens..this PV doesn’t want to go down.

FWIW, we might actually pull off a real -NAO. The only thing harder to come by than a -PNA in recent years has been a -NAO, so if we take that route, it would definitely qualify as a crack in the armor of the 2013-present regime.
  • Jesse likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#106
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:52 PM

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Talk about nailing a long range forecast!

http://onlinelibrary...17GL072832/full

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible.


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#107
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:57 PM

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Another interesting study, for anyone interested.

https://journals.ame...CLI-D-16-0620.1

Interannual variation of seasonal-mean tropical convection over the Indo-Pacific region is primarily controlled by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, during El Niño winters, seasonal-mean convection around the Maritime Continent becomes weaker than normal, while that over the central to eastern Pacific is strengthened. Similarly, subseasonal convective activity, which is associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), is influenced by ENSO. The MJO activity tends to extend farther eastward to the date line during El Niño winters and contract toward the western Pacific during La Niña winters. However, the overall level of MJO activity across the Maritime Continent does not change much in response to the ENSO. It is shown that the boreal winter MJO amplitude is closely linked with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) rather than with ENSO. The MJO activity around the Maritime Continent becomes stronger and more organized during the easterly QBO winters. The QBO-related MJO change explains up to 40% of interannual variation of the boreal winter MJO amplitude. This result suggests that variability of the MJO and the related tropical–extratropical teleconnections can be better understood and predicted by taking not only the tropospheric circulation but also the stratospheric mean state into account. The seasonality of the QBO–MJO link and the possible mechanism are also discussed.


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#108
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:19 PM

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Wow the models are just boring...very very boring.
Still raining currently!

#109
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:23 PM

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Wow the models are just boring...very very boring.
Still raining currently!


Time to focus on next winter

#110
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:31 PM

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Time to focus on next winter

Looking that way. At least we had the White Christmas!

#111
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:58 PM

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Kind of OT (and I’m trying to avoid excessive extrapolation here), but structurally speaking, this looks like a legitimate North Atlantic cold event. And it’s all over guidance.

As modeled, we haven’t seen anything like this in the current +AMO phase. And it persists for 2+ weeks.

BDuEjPa.png
WNuDTZu.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#112
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:04 PM

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SSTAs have already tanked across the North Atlantic over the last week. I’m assuming this will continue for at least another 10 days.

vZLfacJ.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#113
liquidsnow

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:11 PM

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Phil...we get it.

Our climate is total s**t.

#114
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:25 PM

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Looking that way. At least we had the White Christmas!

 

Ugh...


Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#115
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:37 PM

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Phil...we get it.

Our climate is total s**t.


Huh?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#116
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:41 PM

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I’m getting nervous about the rapidly expanding drought across the 4-Corners and Plains. Historically speaking, that’s a heatwave omen for most of the country during modern day -QBO/+meridional mode regimes.

Hopefully this changes soon.

 

This is related to the drought in California that has worsened this season, due to the lack of an active storm track bringing storms into CA and the greater SW. Many states downstream of CA are dry until you get to the Gulf states.



#117
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:51 AM

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Time to focus on next winter

 

 

how do the models look 6,528 hours out?  Can anyone post the maps?



#118
Geos

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:24 AM

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Looking that way. At least we had the White Christmas!

 

The only silver lining so far.

I think we paid for that early snow.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#119
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:38 AM

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Completely saturated ground raising the risk of mudslides in the Seattle area...

 

https://www.seattlet...n-seattle-area/

 

In case you haven’t noticed: It’s been a little wet out there.

Over the past couple of weeks, parts of the Seattle area have seen up to 5 inches of rain, which has saturated the ground and increased the risk of landslides, according to the National Weather Service in Seattle.

And even more rain and mild temperatures are forecast for the region beginning Sunday and into next week.



#120
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:12 AM

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Completely saturated ground raising the risk of mudslides in the Seattle area...

 

https://www.seattlet...n-seattle-area/

 

In case you haven’t noticed: It’s been a little wet out there.

Over the past couple of weeks, parts of the Seattle area have seen up to 5 inches of rain, which has saturated the ground and increased the risk of landslides, according to the National Weather Service in Seattle.

And even more rain and mild temperatures are forecast for the region beginning Sunday and into next week.

 

Pouring rain, dark and foggy out this morning, 17th consecutive day now. It's funny hearing our Vancouver transplants complain about the rain, normally they're gloating about how much drier it is over here.



#121
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:22 AM

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Things are looking better on the 12z. Everything shifting west.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#122
MossMan

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:22 AM

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I have 12 very wet and muddy paws to clean again this morning.

#123
WeatherArchive

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:53 AM

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Things are looking better on the 12z. Everything shifting west.

Just TEN DAYS away! :)  Book your flights!


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#124
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:57 AM

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Things are looking better on the 12z. Everything shifting west.

 

Its not even close to being cold enough to matter though... there is no cold air available.  

 

All this does is prolong the wait until we get some sort of dry break.  


  • HighlandExperience likes this

#125
Geos

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:05 AM

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Nice dry rainshadow hole over the area right now.

 

ATX.N0Q.20180202.1701.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#126
HighlandExperience

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:07 AM

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Its not even close to being cold enough to matter though... there is no cold air available.  

 

All this does is prolong the wait until we get some sort of dry break.  

 

YA at this point we just need dry sunny weather. Moss is everywhere. All of this rain is ridiculous. Amazing how wet the northern tier of the west has been. 



#127
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:14 AM

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PROGRESS!

 

In other news I think Tim got me sick.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#128
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:17 AM

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Its not even close to being cold enough to matter though... there is no cold air available.  

 

All this does is prolong the wait until we get some sort of dry break.  

Not yet but now there is a trough trying to dig down the coast.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#129
MossMan

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:22 AM

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http://komonews.com/...t-on-the-ground

That one didn’t trend east.
  • Geos likes this

#130
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:23 AM

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And for the record there is enuff cold air close to matter. 


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#131
HighlandExperience

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:28 AM

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http://komonews.com/...t-on-the-ground

That one didn’t trend east.

Wow that is the kind of epic event I want to experience in the modern era. I bet TT location got buried during that time period.

“The city’s total snowfall in February that year was 35.4 inches and the total for January and February together was 58.7 inches. “
  • MossMan likes this

#132
Front Ranger

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:48 AM

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http://komonews.com/...t-on-the-ground

That one didn’t trend east.

 

Very wet and sloppy, though. Tim would not have approved.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#133
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:53 AM

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Very wet and sloppy, though. Tim would not have approved.


Probably lots of damage. I don't love snow so much that I want it to destroy my house!

#134
HighlandExperience

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:08 AM

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Probably lots of damage. I don't love snow so much that I want it to destroy my house!


Your location must have been buried

#135
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:24 AM

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Lol guys, don’t pay attention the models in the clown range right now. Trust me.

If things go as planned upstairs, you’re about to witness some of the wildest model swings in recent memory.
  • happ and Frontal Snowsquall like this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#136
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Posted in garden group... she is located between Tacoma and Puyallup.   Impressive!

 

fb.png


  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this

#137
weather girl

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:48 AM

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Well it feels like the last several summers have been the hottest since I moved here in 1989 so I'll be shocked if it's not another inferno here.

If we were going to transition to an El Nino, I would totally agree.  I just feel like this summer is going to be cool and kind of gross.  And since I can't read models, that's all I have.  



#138
weather girl

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:49 AM

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TT seriously.  Why do we get the FB garden page?  What's the correlation here?



#139
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:52 AM

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Welp, Tim is better now. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#140
Front Ranger

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:53 AM

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Probably lots of damage. I don't love snow so much that I want it to destroy my house!

 

Then you don't truly love snow.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#141
Front Ranger

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:54 AM

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Posted in garden group... she is located between Tacoma and Puyallup.   Impressive!

 

fb.png

 

Have you warned her about the coming SSW?!?


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#142
HighlandExperience

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:57 AM

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Then you don't truly love snow.


You must forsake mother, father, and brother to truly be a snow disciple.

#143
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:00 AM

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Have you warned her about the coming SSW?!?


I have not!

#144
BLI snowman

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:00 AM

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Nice to have 50+ dewpoints back.

 

Feels like Baton Rouge!



#145
Geos

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:01 AM

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YA at this point we just need dry sunny weather. Moss is everywhere. All of this rain is ridiculous. Amazing how wet the northern tier of the west has been. 

 

I know the moss has been going wild this month.

Been seeing more birds and other wildlife than I did about a year ago.

 

If the SSW does happen and cold air unleashes into the area, it will be interesting to see what effect it will have on plant life. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#146
BLI snowman

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:04 AM

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So... January 2018 finished a whopping 12.12 degrees warmer than January 2017 at PDX. 

 

Climate change!



#147
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:22 AM

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I know the moss has been going wild this month.
Been seeing more birds and other wildlife than I did about a year ago.

If the SSW does happen and cold air unleashes into the area, it will be interesting to see what effect it will have on plant life.


That would be really epic to see the cherry blossoms get snow on them.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

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#148
Geos

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:31 AM

Geos

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  • LocationKirkland/Kenmore line

Stratosphere is starting to warm at the 10 hPa level now.

 

10mb9065.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#149
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:53 AM

Phil

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Daffodil alert here in Maryland, too. This despite lows dropping into the teens/20s on a regular basis over the last three weeks.

2tz93JD.jpg

I’m telling you, sun angle is 90% responsible for when these guys wake up. They always come up in February regardless of the temperature. Even in February 2015 when it was -5*F with -30*F windchills for a time, these guys were springing to life.
  • Dan the Weatherman and Frontal Snowsquall like this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#150
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:55 AM

Phil

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Oh, and we have some wild onion and other weeds that are popping up around the landscape. Nothing can kill these suckers.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream