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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Deweydog

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If we do verify the wave-2 SSW, it will be fun watching the models flounder like a fish out of water.

 

Nothing on planet Earth can tank NWP skill scores like a SSW event, save maybe a super volcano eruption.

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If we do verify the wave-2 SSW, it will be fun watching the models flounder like a fish out of water.

 

Nothing on planet Earth can tank NWP skill scores like a SSW event, save maybe a super volcano eruption.

 

 

So was Mt. Agung a dud?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So was Mt. Agung a dud?

Well, that’s kind of subjective. It’s still erupting episodically, but it looks like a VEI3 so far. Theoretically it could erupt for years and increase in intensity, or go dormant again.

 

I’m not a vulcanologist, so I don’t have those answers.

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Lol. U jelly?

Jam actually. I enjoy 90s hip-hop

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I'm not trolling. Like I said, bring on more rain. We could use it

 

Most of the western half of the country is in desperate need for rain right now, as it has been very dry outside of Washington, Idaho, and Montana. I am hoping for a major pattern change that will bring beneficial rain and mountain snow to a large area of the west.

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Most of the western half of the country is in desperate need for rain right now, as it has been very dry outside of Washington, Idaho, and Montana. I am hoping for a major pattern change that will bring beneficial rain and mountain snow to a large area of the west.

 

As usual when its dry across the most of the West... WA state is seriously wet.   

 

Looks like the pattern change after the ridge is going to be one that spreads the wealth a little and is more decent up here.    As of Saturday... it has rained in my area every day for a month straight.     That is unusually wet even for here in January.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’m getting nervous about the rapidly expanding drought across the 4-Corners and Plains. Historically speaking, that’s a heatwave omen for most of the country during modern day -QBO/+meridional mode regimes.

 

Hopefully this changes soon.

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FWIW, the drought doesn’t cause the pattern, but it’s certainly a result of a pattern that could promote poleward anticyclones (thus, heatwaves) during the warm season.

 

Not necessarily over the PNW. Just speaking generally.

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FWIW, the drought doesn’t cause the pattern, but it’s certainly a result of a pattern that could promote poleward anticyclones (thus, heatwaves) during the warm season.

 

Not necessarily over the PNW. Just speaking generally.

Well it feels like the last several summers have been the hottest since I moved here in 1989 so I'll be shocked if it's not another inferno here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I’m looking forward to watching the models catch onto the big -AO (2nd half of February onward) following the SSW event. Assuming it happens..this PV doesn’t want to go down.

 

FWIW, we might actually pull off a real -NAO. The only thing harder to come by than a -PNA in recent years has been a -NAO, so if we take that route, it would definitely qualify as a crack in the armor of the 2013-present regime.

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Talk about nailing a long range forecast!

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072832/full

 

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible.

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Another interesting study, for anyone interested.

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0620.1

 

Interannual variation of seasonal-mean tropical convection over the Indo-Pacific region is primarily controlled by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, during El Niño winters, seasonal-mean convection around the Maritime Continent becomes weaker than normal, while that over the central to eastern Pacific is strengthened. Similarly, subseasonal convective activity, which is associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), is influenced by ENSO. The MJO activity tends to extend farther eastward to the date line during El Niño winters and contract toward the western Pacific during La Niña winters. However, the overall level of MJO activity across the Maritime Continent does not change much in response to the ENSO. It is shown that the boreal winter MJO amplitude is closely linked with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) rather than with ENSO. The MJO activity around the Maritime Continent becomes stronger and more organized during the easterly QBO winters. The QBO-related MJO change explains up to 40% of interannual variation of the boreal winter MJO amplitude. This result suggests that variability of the MJO and the related tropical–extratropical teleconnections can be better understood and predicted by taking not only the tropospheric circulation but also the stratospheric mean state into account. The seasonality of the QBO–MJO link and the possible mechanism are also discussed.

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Kind of OT (and I’m trying to avoid excessive extrapolation here), but structurally speaking, this looks like a legitimate North Atlantic cold event. And it’s all over guidance.

 

As modeled, we haven’t seen anything like this in the current +AMO phase. And it persists for 2+ weeks.

 

BDuEjPa.png

WNuDTZu.png

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SSTAs have already tanked across the North Atlantic over the last week. I’m assuming this will continue for at least another 10 days.

 

vZLfacJ.png

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Looking that way. At least we had the White Christmas!

 

Ugh...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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I’m getting nervous about the rapidly expanding drought across the 4-Corners and Plains. Historically speaking, that’s a heatwave omen for most of the country during modern day -QBO/+meridional mode regimes.

 

Hopefully this changes soon.

 

This is related to the drought in California that has worsened this season, due to the lack of an active storm track bringing storms into CA and the greater SW. Many states downstream of CA are dry until you get to the Gulf states.

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Looking that way. At least we had the White Christmas!

 

The only silver lining so far.

I think we paid for that early snow.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Completely saturated ground raising the risk of mudslides in the Seattle area...

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/gloomy-and-wet-more-rain-expected-over-weekend-landslide-threat-continues-in-seattle-area/

 

In case you haven’t noticed: It’s been a little wet out there.

Over the past couple of weeks, parts of the Seattle area have seen up to 5 inches of rain, which has saturated the ground and increased the risk of landslides, according to the National Weather Service in Seattle.

And even more rain and mild temperatures are forecast for the region beginning Sunday and into next week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Completely saturated ground raising the risk of mudslides in the Seattle area...

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/gloomy-and-wet-more-rain-expected-over-weekend-landslide-threat-continues-in-seattle-area/

 

In case you haven’t noticed: It’s been a little wet out there.

Over the past couple of weeks, parts of the Seattle area have seen up to 5 inches of rain, which has saturated the ground and increased the risk of landslides, according to the National Weather Service in Seattle.

And even more rain and mild temperatures are forecast for the region beginning Sunday and into next week.

 

Pouring rain, dark and foggy out this morning, 17th consecutive day now. It's funny hearing our Vancouver transplants complain about the rain, normally they're gloating about how much drier it is over here.

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Things are looking better on the 12z. Everything shifting west.

 

Its not even close to being cold enough to matter though... there is no cold air available.  

 

All this does is prolong the wait until we get some sort of dry break.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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