February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

This place is a tomb...

Bloom tomb.

[Winterdog]

I'm loving this 51 degree drizzle.  I've had measurable rain on 29 of the last 30 days!  Already had one inch this month.  I agree with Tim, this should bode well for a reasonable spring.  January was indeed one for the history books!  Ended up with an average temp of 42 here which was more than 8 degrees warmer than December.  Blooming historic.

[TT-SEA]

60 at PDX today?

 

55 here and dry for the moment.   

[TT-SEA]

Is 1989 off the table now?   

[Deweydog]

Is 1989 off the table now?

Tim. Is. Back.

[MossMan]

It’s so fun running the loop of the 850’s on the GFS and seeing all the pretty dark blue and purple colors almost continuously spill into the country east of Washington! Yay!

[TT-SEA]

Tim. Is. Back.

 

For the record... I dislike this pattern greatly.    

[Deweydog]

For the record... I dislike this pattern greatly.

It's a general feel, you seem much more like yourself today. Less gun shy.

[TT-SEA]

It's a general feel, you seem much more like yourself today. Less gun shy.

 

This sucks.   It is what it is.   

[Deweydog]

This sucks. It is what it is.

You're not THAT bad...

[TT-SEA]

You're not THAT bad...

 

Thanks Matt.   Just biding my time in an ugly winter.    Shameless is helping that cause.  

[weather girl]

FYP.

Feel your pain?

 

I know what you meant. . If anybody knows what it is and feels like sharing, that would be ab fab—-as my Brit friends would say.

[Deweydog]

Thanks Matt. Just biding my time in an ugly winter. Shameless is helping that cause.

I shamelessly finished season one.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

About 2 more weeks for something to develop, then I think we can stick a fork in winter--or stab it--something.

[TT-SEA]

PDX avoided a 60-degree disaster!  

[Deweydog]

PDX avoided a 60-degree disaster!

That's one less graupel shower on 3-28...

[TT-SEA]

That's one less graupel shower on 3-28...

 

You mean 4-28.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It’s so fun running the loop of the 850’s on the GFS and seeing all the pretty dark blue and purple colors almost continuously spill into the country east of Washington! Yay!

Isn't this what happens in the average year? It takes weird stuff to pull that cold trough over us.

[MossMan]

Isn't this what happens in the average year? It takes weird stuff to pull that cold trough over us.

Yes but last year was at least eye candy for us Puget Sounders in model land from basically December thru March straight! This is just about as dull and boring as it could get. I would rather have a December 2017 drought repeat over this garbage.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yes but last year was at least eye candy for us Puget Sounders in model land from basically December thru March straight! This is just about as dull and boring as it could get. I would rather have a December 2017 drought repeat over this garbage.

Maybe we bounce back in a big way next winter. Can't really be more boring.

[Bryant]

This sucks. It is what it is.

I find it rather enjoyable

[Phil]

Wow, -48C 850mb temperatures in NE Canada on most guidance. Sub -40C 850mb temperatures also persist for the next 10+ days on most guidance.

 

 

I can’t find anything below -46C in NE Canada on reanalysis going back to 1979. This is legitimate stuff.

[Phil]

Beautiful.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018020218&fh=-36

[TT-SEA]

I find it rather enjoyable

Well Jim and I find it to be pretty crappy.

 

Although it was a lovely dry and warm afternoon and now evening here with the sound of frogs and crickets out there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow, -48C 850mb temperatures in NE Canada on most guidance. Sub -40C 850mb temperatures also persist for the next 10+ days on most guidance.

 

 

I can’t find anything below -46C in NE Canada on reanalysis going back to 1979. This is legitimate stuff.

And the only place that hasn't noticed is...the west

[MossMan]

Just came in from making a drizzleman! And the drizzle is really sticking to the trees and the pavement! So magical outside right now!!

[pscz1140]

GFS looks a lot better in the mid-range. It's not far from a good solution with enough cold air just north of the border.

 

I'm not giving up on the winter (or true love/world peace) yet.

[TT-SEA]

GFS looks a lot better in the mid-range. It's not far from a good solution with enough cold air just north of the border.

 

I'm not giving up on the winter (or true love/world peace) yet.

 

Looks like the 12Z run... here is one week from today:

 

 

 

At the very least... it would lead to a nice weekend.  

[pscz1140]

Looks like the 12Z run... here is one week from today:

 

At the very least... it would lead to a nice weekend.  

 

Yeah, it would be a nice change from the current pattern.

 

And it does look a bit better than the last few runs around HR 162 (at least for NW WA), though it has a little ways to go to be meaningful. Something to possibly track at least...

[pscz1140]

The last few frames before the clown show are looking much better too.

 

It's only one run, but it's nice to have at least a tiny carrot to swallow.

[TT-SEA]

Raining at the passes tonight.   

 

This is a very enjoyable late October pattern.    The parched landscape is getting relief.

[MossMan]

Raining at the passes tonight.

 

This is a very enjoyable late October pattern. The parched landscape is getting relief.

Yeah a crisp 40 degrees at the summit of Snoqualmie!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah a crisp 40 degrees at the summit of Snoqualmie!

 

They might actually go below freezing up there in a week.   Maybe.  

[Front Ranger]

They might actually go below freezing up there in a week.   Maybe.  

 

Just imagine the disaster if your relatives were to have gone through this nightmare when they visited for Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

Just imagine the disaster if your relatives were to have gone through this nightmare when they visited for Christmas.

I know!

 

We got very lucky.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Gotta love this too tonight! looks different all the way to clown range.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

00Z Euro next will there be some more drama or not?

[umadbro]

Just 10 days out!

[Phil]

SoCal better start getting some precipitation this month..February is their climatological prime time. It’s also one of the driest months across the continental US, with tropical moisture very limited.

 

[Phil]

Notable changes w/ solar activity now. AP index is tanking and the fluctuations have decreased substantially. I think this might be the real move into solar minimum conditions.