February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

We're f*cked.

 

King GFS says otherwise.   ECMWF has been relegated to just an amusing jester.

[TT-SEA]

Day 9 highs... get toasty down south while there is actually some snow in WA.   

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Not going to post 10 day map... suffice to say its much warmer than day 9.     Just about 50 in most places.

[HighlandExperience]

Really lame how dry this looks. Still lots of time to change I suppose!

[TT-SEA]

Really lame how dry this looks. Still lots of time to change I suppose!

 

 

I would say the time to change would normally be narrowing down at this point but the models are all over the place.    GFS solution would be epic... ECMWF solution would likely not even be remembered.   And this all starts in 120 hours.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The euro temp maps are comical. Not even close.

[HighlandExperience]

I would say the time to change would normally be narrowing down at this point but the models are all over the place. GFS solution would be epic... ECMWF solution would likely not even be remembered. And this all starts in 120 hours.

The 12z run had better snowfall. Crossing fingers for tommorow.

[TT-SEA]

The euro temp maps are comical. Not even close.

 

This is a silly statement.   

 

Day 7... sunshine and an 850mb temp of -9C in mid February and it only shows mid to upper 30s and you think its comical?  Reality would likely be around 40.  

 

Day 8... the 850mb temp is only -6C but there are more clouds.   Reality would again probably be around 40.   

[Phil]

New Euro Weeklies are...... well....... you be the judge

Haha, that looks like paleo composite from the LIA.

 

Seeing a block over Greenland looks weird..it’s been so freakin’ long. Will take some getting used to.

[HighlandExperience]

This is a silly statement.

 

Day 7 for example... sunshine and an 850mb temp of -9C in mid February and it only shows mid to upper 30s and you think its comical? Reality would likely be around 40.

 

Day 8... the 850mb temp is only -6C but there are more clouds. Reality would again probably be around 40.

Sadly without snow you are right.

[TT-SEA]

Sadly without snow you are right.

 

Given the upper level parameters that it shows... the ECMWF is probably a little too cold with the surface temps as usual.    

 

Even with snow on the ground... -9C with full sun in mid February is going to get you into the upper 30s.    

[Phil]

SSW underway:

 

[Deweydog]

SSW underway:

 

That seems sudden!

[Phil]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bigtime step back on the Euro.  Nothing of interest at all down here.

 

Ensembles also trending worse too? I'm struggling to find them.

[Blizzard777]

28 degrees Federal Way

[van city]

People are going to like the 6z.

[umadbro]

Impressive!

[Farmboy]

6z was a work of art... Maybe a day or two with highs near freezing, convergence zone sagging into south King county... Lovely..

[FroYoBro]

An actual cold morning! Sitting at 25 right now. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS and control run actually support the operational run... showing a quick shot of cold air and then warming up immediately.

 

 

 

Huge change for the EPS... an unusually large swing.    Maybe the Europeans ingested some bad data last night?  

[Blizzard777]

26 in Federal way dew point 23

[Timmy]

00Z EPS and control run actually support the operational run... showing a quick shot of cold air and then warming up immediately.

 

 

 

Huge change for the EPS... an unusually large swing. Maybe the Europeans ingested some bad data last night?

oh Tim...

Very weak “warming” signal and 850’s are still below average by a decent margin. What are you whining about?

[TT-SEA]

oh Tim...

Very weak “warming” signal and 850’s are still below average by a decent margin. What are you whining about?

 

Not whining.   But it is a big change from previous runs.   With the 06Z GFS being consistent... I wonder if it was just a bad night for the European suite.

[Farmboy]

00Z EPS and control run actually support the operational run... showing a quick shot of cold air and then warming up immediately.

 

 

 

Huge change for the EPS... an unusually large swing. Maybe the Europeans ingested some bad data last night?

Take a deep breath. You couldn't wait to post that EPS map...

[Geos]

It's pretty cold out there. At 23 right now.

[TT-SEA]

It's pretty cold out there. At 23 right now.

 

I really think your thermometer runs a little cold.

 

Its 31 at SEA and 32 at UW in Seattle.    

[TT-SEA]

Take a deep breath. You couldn't wait to post that EPS map...

 

If that were true then it would have been posted last night.   The 12Z EPS from yesterday never did come out on WB so I still can't post it but I am sure it was cold like the operational run.   WB finished loading the 12Z surface maps in the middle of the afternoon... about 6 hours late.   

[FroYoBro]

27 at PDX!

[TT-SEA]

27 here as well... calm and clear. There has been no east wind here with this weak ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Wow.

 

Just when you thought the 00z GFS was the pinnacle of good model runs, the 06z comes along and says, "Hold my beer".

 

The fact that the 06Z run did not even weaken a little makes me think the GFS in on track and leading the way here.   

[snow_wizard]

6 members on the 6Z GEFS go to -15 or lower on the 850s.

[snow_wizard]

00Z EPS and control run actually support the operational run... showing a quick shot of cold air and then warming up immediately.

 

 

 

Huge change for the EPS... an unusually large swing.    Maybe the Europeans ingested some bad data last night?  

 

Still a big positive anom over the northern GOA.  It will be fine.

[Front Ranger]

I really think your thermometer runs a little cold.

 

Its 31 at SEA and 32 at UW in Seattle.

He doesn't live close to either of those places, both of which tend to run warmer than places away from the water.

[MossMan]

Currently 24 chilly Willy degrees.

[TT-SEA]

He doesn't live close to either of those places, both of which tend to run warmer than places away from the water.

He is right across the lake from UW and on a hill. You can see Husky stadium from Kirkland.

[Front Ranger]

He is right across the lake from UW and on a hill. You can see Husky stadium from Kirkland.

Are you familiar with the term "microclimate"?

[TT-SEA]

Are you familiar with the term "microclimate"?

 

Most of Kirkland readings are in the 27-28 degree range though.  

[Front Ranger]

I can see DIA from the hill near my house. But there are many times my temp is 5-10 degrees different.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS has started!    A real test to see if it holds its ground against the very pedestrian 00Z ECMWF run.