February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Most of Kirkland readings are in the 27-28 degree range though.

Just remember this convo next time someone questions your "warm" readings...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 here

[TT-SEA]

I can see DIA from the hill near my house. But there are many times my temp is 5-10 degrees different.

 

You are much closer to the mountains though... big topography difference there.    Not so much between Kirkland and UW.   I can get between those places in 5 minutes on our boat across the lake.  

[TT-SEA]

Just remember this convo next time someone questions your "warm" readings...

 

I expect people should question readings... but there is a definite geographical reason here for warmer readings when the east wind is blowing.   Not so much at all when its calm.  '

 

I am not saying he is lying... I just think his thermometer might read a little cold.    Or maybe it is some cold microclimate.

[Geos]

I really think your thermometer runs a little cold.

 

Its 31 at SEA and 32 at UW in Seattle.    

 

There's several stations on the hill here that are in that 24-26 degree range. I just had to break through a half inch of ice so my chickens could get something to drink.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 this morning. Coldest low of the season. Actually the coldest reading I have had this late in the season since I moved here fall 2011.

[Geos]

He doesn't live close to either of those places, both of which tend to run warmer than places away from the water.

 

Right. It's always colder here during the radiational cooling nights. 

It's about 29 at the lake shore right now. So the rise over run from the lake makes a difference.

[TT-SEA]

There's several stations on the hill here that are in that 24-26 degree range. I just had to break through a half inch of ice so my chickens could get something to drink.

 

The differences on either side of the lake are interesting.   Everything is frozen solid here too at 27.  

[Geos]

Got snow showers in my grid forecast for Sunday Night now. 

[TT-SEA]

Got snow showers in my grid forecast for Sunday Night now. 

 

The NWS must be giving way more weight to the GFS as well... the 00Z ECMWF showed that it was sunny by noon on Sunday while the 00Z and 06Z GFS keep the snow showers going well into Monday.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So far gfs is looking like the last 2 runs.

[TT-SEA]

So far gfs is looking like the last 2 runs.

Looks a little better at 120 hours.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12z looks quite a bit better for Sunday:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very cold by 138 hr!!

[TT-SEA]

Randy is getting buried in snow on Sunday evening in a strong c-zone per the 12Z GFS...

 

[Perturbed Member]

Randy is getting buried in snow on Sunday evening in a strong c-zone per the 12Z GFS...

 

 

Quite the shadowing in the Willamette valley.

[TT-SEA]

Huge difference between the 12Z GFS at 132 hours compared to the 00Z ECMWF at 120 hours.   12Z GFS shows much more moisture. 

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still couldn't pull off a sub-freezing low here, once again it only fell to 33F. It's going to take an Arctic airmass to do it.

[FroYoBro]

Randy is getting buried in snow on Sunday evening in a strong c-zone per the 12Z GFS...

 

Yeah, this setup should be great for that area. You are probably going to end up getting buried. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Randy is getting buried in snow on Sunday evening in a strong c-zone per the 12Z GFS...

 

That looks like convergence from the arctic front to me?

[TT-SEA]

That looks like convergence from the arctic front to me?

 

I think so.  

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, this setup should be great for that area. You are probably going to end up getting buried. 

 

Not me personally.   We will not be here.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would love to see a true arctic front slide down the sound with snow and wind like the old day's.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run won’t be as good as the 00z or 06z in all likelihood.

[TT-SEA]

I would love to see a true arctic front slide down the sound with snow and wind like the old day's.

 

That is happening on Sunday night into Monday morning on the 12Z GFS.   

[ShawniganLake]

GEM!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12z GEM doesn't look great for Sunday, but improves for the remainder of the week.

[FroYoBro]

The GFS also gives Oregon lowlanders snow. Looks great. 

[TT-SEA]

GEM!

 

GEM is much warmer at 150 hours.    The stupid low way off the coast screws it up.  

[FroYoBro]

Not me personally.   We will not be here.  

Bummer! I always like your pictures. 

[Perturbed Member]

 

Not going to happen but fun to look at. 

[TT-SEA]

The 12z GEM doesn't look great for Sunday, but improves for the remainder of the week.

 

Does not get better until around 192 hours.

[TT-SEA]

Bummer! I always like your pictures. 

 

I have a couple security web cams set up looking outside so I will be able to tell what is happening here.  I can take some screen shots.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m dumb. The 12z is amazing!

[ShawniganLake]

Does not get better until around 192 hours.

It looked better than the 0z. Looked like snow in Puget Sound Monday night and Tuesday morning.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS definitely farther east next Tuesday than the 00Z run.   Not as far east as the 00Z ECMWF run though.

[TT-SEA]

It looked better than the 0z. Looked like snow in Puget Sound Monday night and Tuesday morning.

 

Yeah... just compared it to its 00Z run and it is better.   But the 00Z GEM run was terrible.

[TT-SEA]

I have been watching Hawaii closely in the models of course... the 12Z run is much farther north and east with that Kona low by the middle of next week and everything is shifted east along the West Coast as well compared to the 00Z run.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have been watching Hawaii closely in the models of course... the 12Z run is much farther north and east with that Kona low by the middle of next week and everything is shifted east along the West Coast as well compared to the 00Z run.

Looks like that system rounding the top of the ridge is going to drop south