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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#2551
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:39 AM

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I don't think we are going to see widespread lowland snow. Maybe some C-zone magic or a localized surprise. Plenty of opportunities the next couple weeks though.


So you don't believe the Euro? It shows a good part of the Puget Sound region getting 2"+ on Sunday.

If there really is a decent Arctic front and associated CZ, you can pretty much throw out the exact amounts any model is spitting out. They all struggle in those situations.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2552
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:42 AM

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So you don't believe the Euro? It shows a good part of the Puget Sound region getting 2"+ on Sunday.

If there really is a decent Arctic front and associated CZ, you can pretty much throw out the exact amounts any model is spitting out. They all struggle in those situations.

 

Widespread means all of W. Washington or most of NW Oregon. Favored C-zone areas could do well. But there will be many places in W. Oregon and W. WA that do not see anything more than a dusting. Seattle Metro area getting snow would be a localized event. Olympia to BLI would qualify as widespread.


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2553
hawkstwelve

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:43 AM

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So you don't believe the Euro? It shows a good part of the Puget Sound region getting 2"+ on Sunday.

If there really is a decent Arctic front and associated CZ, you can pretty much throw out the exact amounts any model is spitting out. They all struggle in those situations.

 

This is very true and should be remembered as we continue to watch the models over the next few days.



#2554
HighlandExperience

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Total snow per 12Z ECMWF through Sunday afternoon... precip is all done north of Chehalis by that time.

ecmwf_tsnow_washington_19.png


It has been pretty consistent in showing 1-3 inches for king county. Good to see.

#2555
TT-SEA

Posted 14 February 2018 - 10:57 AM

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No time to host images right now... but per the 12Z ECMWF these are highs for Seattle:

 

Sunday - 37

Monday - 34

Tuesday - 37

Wednesday - 39

Thursday - 45

 

Coldest low temp is 21 on Tuesday morning.  



#2556
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:05 AM

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Hey hey hey!

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2557
MossMan

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:07 AM

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No time to host images right now... but per the 12Z ECMWF these are highs for Seattle:

Sunday - 37
Monday - 34
Tuesday - 37
Wednesday - 39
Thursday - 45

Coldest low temp is 21 on Tuesday morning.

I will probably be below freezing Monday-Wednesday then I bet. Seems like even when Marysville is upper 30’s my area is still at or below freezing, especially if there is snow cover. Looking forward to it!
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#2558
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:40 AM

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I will probably be below freezing Monday-Wednesday then I bet. Seems like even when Marysville is upper 30’s my area is still at or below freezing, especially if there is snow cover. Looking forward to it!

 

Yeah I am thinking sub-freezing highs are very possible here Monday and Tuesday. A low around 15 would be cool too. The coldest records for late February/early March are in the 8-12 range up here. I think there are some "warmer" records early next week that could fall though. 


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2559
Geos

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:40 AM

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Total snow per 12Z ECMWF through Sunday afternoon... precip is all done north of Chehalis by that time.  

 

ecmwf_tsnow_washington_19.png

 

Weird that the typical CZ area is so low.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#2560
Geos

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:42 AM

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No time to host images right now... but per the 12Z ECMWF these are highs for Seattle:

 

Sunday - 37

Monday - 34

Tuesday - 37

Wednesday - 39

Thursday - 45

 

Coldest low temp is 21 on Tuesday morning.  

 

So if there is snow on the ground then I can probably expect near freezing high for Sunday and Tuesday and near 30 on Monday at my location.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#2561
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:12 PM

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February will be running cooler than all of January at PDX within a few days.
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#2562
MossMan

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:22 PM

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Looks lovely!

Attached Files



#2563
seattleweatherguy

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:22 PM

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Hey hey hey!

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png


Wow cold air all the way it cali!

#2564
Timmy

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:25 PM

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February will be running cooler than all of January at PDX within a few days.

well hello there

#2565
ShawniganLake

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:28 PM

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Sounds like generally 2-5” of snow fell in the BC lower mainland last night. Mostly inland areas or with a little elevation.

#2566
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:29 PM

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Didn't the ICON handle the February 1989 blast better than the #big3?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2567
Geos

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:29 PM

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Looks lovely!

 

About time!


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#2568
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:32 PM

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Didn't the ICON handle the February 1989 blast better than the #big3?


The east ICON and west ICON were too busy reuniting.

#2569
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:34 PM

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well hello there


Hi :wub:

How did you end up doing last night? I was honestly shocked to see anything sticking near sea level.

#2570
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:36 PM

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No time to host images right now... but per the 12Z ECMWF these are highs for Seattle:

Sunday - 37
Monday - 34
Tuesday - 37
Wednesday - 39
Thursday - 45

Coldest low temp is 21 on Tuesday morning.


Would be very 1990ish temps.

Records gonna fall!

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2571
jakeinthevalley

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:45 PM

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Small hail shower moving across McMinnville. Not sure if it survived the coast range and turned convective.

#2572
ShawniganLake

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:50 PM

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18z ICON is running

#2573
WSmet

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:53 PM

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Did I hear someone correctly last night regarding 850's around -12C ?


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#2574
seattleweatherguy

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:54 PM

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Did I hear someone correctly last night regarding 850's around -12C ?


Probably. That be chilly

#2575
ShawniganLake

Posted 14 February 2018 - 12:58 PM

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Did I hear someone correctly last night regarding 850's around -12C ?


Attached File  9A039E74-AF90-4E3F-83AA-25F09F80D484.png   154.91KB   2 downloads

#2576
WSmet

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:00 PM

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Hmmm, might need to break out the Tauntaun's this weekend.

Attached Files


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#2577
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:04 PM

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18z ICON is running


https://m.youtube.co...h?v=cmc8q2dcIMs

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2578
Phil

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:12 PM

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Is it the flip in the Atlantic that has you so impressed?

To me... this looks like a long overdue deep trough over the West. Seems very logical that would have to happen in March after an insanely warm and dry winter in CA. The actual contour lines are sort of meaningless... the anomaly centers are what is important.


That’s a large part of it yes. The entire pattern is pretty amazing looking.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#2579
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:14 PM

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A reminder the 06z an 18z ICON's only run to 120 hours. Through hour 51 so far... Will keep ya'll posted.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2580
Timmy

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:14 PM

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Hi :wub:

How did you end up doing last night? I was honestly shocked to see anything sticking near sea level.

2”

#2581
Phil

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:19 PM

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Rubber band snap.

nao.sprd2.gif
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#2582
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:20 PM

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One of my facebook friends who lives out above Yacolt around 1200' reports he picked up 5" last night. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2583
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:23 PM

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One of my facebook friends who lives out above Yacolt around 1200' reports he picked up 5" last night.


Had a little over an inch here, but that was at about 6:30.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2584
Phil

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:24 PM

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Shiver me timbers.

zK5DGPw.png
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#2585
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:25 PM

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18z ICON is running

 

Drünkel.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2586
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:30 PM

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The ICON's isobars look as if Michael J. Fox drew them.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2587
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:38 PM

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Shiver me timbers.

zK5DGPw.png


I’m loving what the SSW has done as far as shaking up the overall regime. Would be nice if it stuck.
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#2588
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:47 PM

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I’m loving what the SSW has done as far as shaking up the overall regime. Would be nice if it stuck.


For a few years.
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2589
Esquimalt

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:50 PM

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I’m loving what the SSW has done as far as shaking up the overall regime. Would be nice if it stuck.

Who's to say it won't? :P


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#2590
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:51 PM

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Widespread means all of W. Washington or most of NW Oregon. Favored C-zone areas could do well. But there will be many places in W. Oregon and W. WA that do not see anything more than a dusting. Seattle Metro area getting snow would be a localized event. Olympia to BLI would qualify as widespread.

 

There's very rarely a guarantee of snow from OLM to BLI.

 

Semantics aside, "widespread" lowland snowfall looks about as likely as you'll ever see with the coming pattern, aside from something like Dec 2008.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2591
Timmy

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Dumping snow here down to 36 from a High of 40. Easily the heaviest snow of the winter here. Not sticking though

#2592
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:53 PM

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18z American looks pretty darn close to the past couple runs at hour 72.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2593
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:55 PM

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Dumping snow here down to 36 from a High of 40. Easily the heaviest snow of the winter here. Not sticking though


The fact that the weather sequence the last few days has overachieved so much ( strong continental intrusion Monday, very cold temps yesterday morning then unexpected snow with the front) bodes well for the later stuff IMO. This pattern change has some teeth.
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#2594
BLI snowman

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:01 PM

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GFS looking nice for the North Sound.



#2595
nwsnow

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:04 PM

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Other than the ECMWF, the other models have been very consistent in showing very little precip in the valley down here due to a clearly defined snow/rain shadow. Should be the usual precip runs out just as it gets cold enough drill we are used to here. Hopefully we get something midweek to override the cold and drop a few inches. 


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#2596
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:04 PM

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GFS looking nice for the North Sound.

 

Moves timing up a few hours for the front, too.

 

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png   177.14KB   2 downloads


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2597
WSmet

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:05 PM

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This was just posted on Twitter 

"After reviewing the latest models I can confidently say that it's an ideal pattern for a 1,000 ft snow level. No widespread snow at sea level, but somebody could hit the convergence zone lottery on Sunday. Also of interest--will the 1600+day streak of 32+ deg highs end Monday? If any of these "ridge roller" type storms (Lance Bosart term) ends up stronger than currently forecast, it will simply erode the cold air faster. No source of additional arctic air after Monday".

 


#2598
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:06 PM

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Pessimism/optimism.

Which to choose!!!?!!!?!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2599
TT-SEA

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:08 PM

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This was just posted on Twitter 

"After reviewing the latest models I can confidently say that it's an ideal pattern for a 1,000 ft snow level. No widespread snow at sea level, but somebody could hit the convergence zone lottery on Sunday. Also of interest--will the 1600+day streak of 32+ deg highs end Monday? If any of these "ridge roller" type storms (Lance Bosart term) ends up stronger than currently forecast, it will simply erode the cold air faster. No source of additional arctic air after Monday".

 

 

 

By who?



#2600
Esquimalt

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:08 PM

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The 18Z GFS is coming in stronger and colder with the Sunday system, which could translate to more snow for many.