February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF showing a little more lowland snow for tonight and tomorrow...

 

[AlTahoe]

Would be happy with half that.

 

GFS

 

Hmm the difference between 22" or 1" for my house. Lol

GFS has been the only model correct for us all winter so I will stick with it. Worst winter ever recorded will continue and the Euro will fall in line with the GFS like it has all winter.

[Timmy]

12Z ECMWF showing a little more lowland snow for tonight and tomorrow...

 

After spending countless hours stressing about an inch or two of snow 7+ days hours this winter. Having 2” pop up here less than 24 hours out is refreshing

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 5  Very nice block placement, axis, tilt, PV aligned with arctic trough, and nice southeast US ridge.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Euro looks further west on Sunday than 00z. Move towards GFS?

Definitely did.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 is great. COLD!  I hope day 7+ it reorganizes with improved tilt/amplification. The fun part is we are within day 7 now for modified arctic air and snow chances.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Sure, I'll go out on that limb. Colder runs ahead.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow amazing model runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 briefly warmer. Block reorganizing. If it pivots around/amplifies could easily see 1-2 more reloads after Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/168/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

Surface maps out through Sunday morning... definitely more snow for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

 

 

 

Update... that is pretty much all the lowland snow for WA as the precip is basically ending by 10 a.m. on Sunday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 HUGE block. Too broad. Subject to change? YES

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

Hi res wrf looks pretty interesting. Last nights looked like 1500’ snow levels, this looks closer to 500’ for tonight. Surface level in favorable areas of Clark and Columbia counties.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 we are so close to seeing one blast after another

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/216/500h_anom.na.png

[HighlandExperience]

Surface maps out through Sunday morning... definitely more snow for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

 

 

 

Update... that is pretty much all the lowland snow for WA as the precip is basically ending by 10 a.m. on Sunday.

Improvement over last night

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Euro still doesn't want to go all in like the GFS. Let's hope the GFS wins. This run of the Euro is better than last night but doesn't bring the snow or even decent cold down here. Might see flakes in the air at least. Even if it is a split between the 2 it would be really close. Andrew is gonna get a nice couple weeks.

[Geos]

Hmm the difference between 22" or 1" for my house. Lol

GFS has been the only model correct for us all winter so I will stick with it. Worst winter ever recorded will continue and the Euro will fall in line with the GFS like it has all winter.

 

Yeah you need the snow more than here. 

Somewhat of a difference between the models here. From like 5" to 14-15".

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF says that the lowland snow for WA mostly occurs on Saturday night into Sunday morning.   It is bone dry after 10 a.m. Sunday up here.

[Esquimalt]

Day 8 HUGE block. Too broad. Subject to change? YES

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/192/500h_anom.na.png

Nothing can be perfect in this world of model riding LOL 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow over the next week per the 12Z ECMWF... which includes tonight as well.  

 

[Geos]

FWIW (not much), 00z WRF ensemble plume shows 4 inches of snow throughout the Eastside tonight into tomorrow morning. Next to nothing for SEA.

 

For what location is that for exactly?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 6 is great. COLD! I hope day 7+ it reorganizes with improved tilt/amplification. The fun part is we are within day 7 now for modified arctic air and snow chances.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/144/500h_anom.na.png

Yeah very cold! Looks like 850mb temps bottom out around -13C for PDX.

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow over the next week per the 12Z ECMWF... which includes tonight as well.

 

Not much snow but a big improvement over last night which showed no snow over King County. Having snow cover will really help hold temps down.

 

Hope those totals increase. 2-4 inches of widespread snow like Christmas would be amazing.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice to see the possible goodies showing up before day 7 now! When can we say that not real often.

 

--

18z GFS in 2 hours 27 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Highs on Monday...

 

 

Highs on Tuesday...

 

 

 

Mostly sunny both days.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Coastal foothills look like precip rates will bring decent accumulations if thicknesses drop to 522 or lower.

[TT-SEA]

More lowland snow early on Wednesday morning in what appears to be a transition event.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a transition event on Tuesday night on the 12Z ECMWF.   It is much warmer on Wednesday... even warmer than the 00Z ECMWF.

 

[Phil]

Hour 300 of the GEFS

 

This is literally the inverse of the pattern that’s dominated the last five winters. It’s about d**n time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Highs on Monday...

 

 

Highs on Tuesday...

 

 

 

Mostly sunny both days.  

What are the 850 temps that day? I want to compare them to yesterday. 

[Phil]

Day 8 HUGE block. Too broad. Subject to change? YES

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/192/500h_anom.na.png

It’s fine. Just a bit slower to stretch/destroy the Baffin Bay TPV than the other models, but it’ll get there eventually because the wavetrain progressions are the same.

[TT-SEA]

What are the 850 temps that day? I want to compare them to yesterday. 

 

 

-11C on Monday

 

-9C on Tuesday

 

-2C on Wednesday   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

-11C on Monday

 

-9C on Tuesday

 

-2C on Wednesday   

Yesterday the sounding for Bremerton was -2c 850 in the afternoon with light north flow and they hit 44 my home hit 40. The temps seem warm to me shown at the surface. But it also is very hard to predict how cold the outflow will be as well. 

[Canadian guy]

I see Jaya is online...what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

-11C on Monday

 

-9C on Tuesday

 

-2C on Wednesday   

 

Thanks.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah don't hold out on us jaya!!

[Geos]

Sunspot count at the end of 2017 was pretty low. Well below the predicted level at this time. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS improved too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12z EPS improved too.

Any maps or charts with that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So the maps Tim posted showed the following highs for SLE

 

Monday: 36

Tuesday: 38

Wednesday: 41

 

If that verified that is very cold for this time of year. Looks like 850's bottom out around -12/-13 for the Willamette Valley. Would be the coldest upper level airmass since December 2013.

 

[Esquimalt]

Looks nice and chilly until hour 240, peaking around hour 144 on the EPS.