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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Deweydog

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Mikaela Shiffrin is about the sexiest thing I have ever seen...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Not liking the way a lot of the models are trending to stall out the Arctic front over the Lower Mainland / Central Vancouver Island. The ECMWF has followed suite tonight. Looks like a large dump of snow across East Vancouver island and very short lived blast of light snow everywhere to the south.

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I watched for like an hour last night and had absolutely no clue when anyone did anything worth cheering about.

Closest to the middle wins, basically. Long games though. ~3hrs. A lot of strategy. Like chess on ice.

I’m watching the Canadian women play right now. They are struggling.

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Euro 00z is warm on Sunday with temperatures in the lower 40s in the lowlands.

Event...cancelled.

 

Well now at least we can look forward to summer BBQ’s and jetsking without worrying about those pesky cold snaps!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

750 PM PST Thu Feb 15 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will arrive tonight and Friday

bringing a return to widespread rainfall. A much stronger system

will reach the area Friday night and Saturday resulting in breezy

conditions in addition to more rain. Cold air will push into the

region Sunday with the snow level falling to sea level. Dry

conditions are expected for the first part of next week.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Starting to see some showers develop along the coast

in advance of the approaching system progged for overnight tonight

and the bulk of the day Friday. Snowfall in the Cascades continues

to look to fit into winter wx advisory thresholds and as

such...inherited headline looks to be on track. Models remain

consistent that the more impressive system will be the follow-up

expected to reach W WA very late Friday night and Saturday. Current

model data suggests that gradients may be tight enough to produce

widespread breezy to windy conditions as well as warrant wind

advisory headlines in some locations. Will likely address the need

for that headline with the early morning forecast package issuance.

Another factor that will need to be considered will be heavy

snowfall up in the Cascades. Snow levels with this storm look to

remain in the 2000-3000 ft range for much of the event...not quite

cold enough for concerns in the lowlands...yet. But as the cold

front associated with this system passes through...snow levels are

expected to plunge hard by Sunday morning...going from that 2000-

3000 range to only a few hundred feet. And that will segue nicely

into the Long Term discussion below.

 

Current forecast looks to be in good shape and as such no evening

updates are anticipated. SMR

 

.LONG TERM...From Previous Discussion...Cold air aloft will arrive

Sunday and Fraser outflow will develop--pushing a modified arctic

front south through Western Washington during the day on Sunday. As

mentioned above, that could occur as early as Saturday night but

will probably be Sunday morning--perhaps around daybreak for the

Seattle metro area. There should be some snow showers for the

lowlands, especially along the arctic boundary that pushes south but

it is too far out to pin down details like timing or accumulations.

The UW WRFGFS suggests the Port Angeles area could do quite well for

snowfall Saturday night and Sunday morning while the Seattle metro

area only gets perhaps an inch--and mainly in the south around

Tacoma. The GEFS ensemble mean has been hovering around two inches

of snow for Sea-Tac--but is still too early to say, the models could

change quite a bit. Looking at the 500mb height change forecast has

280m falls with the upper trough reaching Vancouver Island Saturday

morning--but height rises behind the system over Western Canada are

not strong--and the absence of strong height rises over the Yukon

and B.C. on Sunday mean that this is not the canonical perfect storm

like a November `85 type of event: The strong shortwave trough pulls

in the cold air aloft behind it--but it isn`t forced down by a

strengthening arctic high.

 

Looking at sea level pressure falls under the second round of more

modest height falls: On the 12z GFS there is a small area of

-2mb/3hr pressure falls along the modified arctic front which tracks

from the north Washington coast 12z Sunday and then across the south

part of the Olympic Peninsula around 15z--after that it fades over

southwest Washington around 18z. That is a pretty modest system--but

it is exactly what you want to watch--development on the modified

arctic front itself. Later shifts can start to tease out the chance

for some snow behind the main front Saturday night versus the chance

of lowland snow with the modified arctic front. Fwiw, it is

traditional to say `modified arctic front` rather than `cold winter

continental Canadian air`, but obviously this isn`t true arctic air

and lows that will probably dip into the teens by Monday night

outside of the city is hardly arctic...but it is awfully cold

compared to what we have seen so far this winter.

 

On Monday, gradients relax awfully fast with the Fraser outflow

piddling out quickly--but 850mb temps will remain cold around -13C

Sunday night through Monday night: The coldest min temps of the

winter sure seem like a good bet. Sunday night wont be the coldest

night--except for wind chill, with breezy cold winds, but after

the gradients relax Monday then Monday night should be the coldest

night with light winds under cold dry air aloft. If there is any

snow on the ground in the lowlands that could help get outlying

areas drop below the current forecasts Monday night. Dry northerly

flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday.

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AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

750 PM PST Thu Feb 15 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will arrive tonight and Friday

bringing a return to widespread rainfall. A much stronger system

will reach the area Friday night and Saturday resulting in breezy

conditions in addition to more rain. Cold air will push into the

region Sunday with the snow level falling to sea level. Dry

conditions are expected for the first part of next week.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Starting to see some showers develop along the coast

in advance of the approaching system progged for overnight tonight

and the bulk of the day Friday. Snowfall in the Cascades continues

to look to fit into winter wx advisory thresholds and as

such...inherited headline looks to be on track. Models remain

consistent that the more impressive system will be the follow-up

expected to reach W WA very late Friday night and Saturday. Current

model data suggests that gradients may be tight enough to produce

widespread breezy to windy conditions as well as warrant wind

advisory headlines in some locations. Will likely address the need

for that headline with the early morning forecast package issuance.

Another factor that will need to be considered will be heavy

snowfall up in the Cascades. Snow levels with this storm look to

remain in the 2000-3000 ft range for much of the event...not quite

cold enough for concerns in the lowlands...yet. But as the cold

front associated with this system passes through...snow levels are

expected to plunge hard by Sunday morning...going from that 2000-

3000 range to only a few hundred feet. And that will segue nicely

into the Long Term discussion below.

 

Current forecast looks to be in good shape and as such no evening

updates are anticipated. SMR

 

.LONG TERM...From Previous Discussion...Cold air aloft will arrive

Sunday and Fraser outflow will develop--pushing a modified arctic

front south through Western Washington during the day on Sunday. As

mentioned above, that could occur as early as Saturday night but

will probably be Sunday morning--perhaps around daybreak for the

Seattle metro area. There should be some snow showers for the

lowlands, especially along the arctic boundary that pushes south but

it is too far out to pin down details like timing or accumulations.

The UW WRFGFS suggests the Port Angeles area could do quite well for

snowfall Saturday night and Sunday morning while the Seattle metro

area only gets perhaps an inch--and mainly in the south around

Tacoma. The GEFS ensemble mean has been hovering around two inches

of snow for Sea-Tac--but is still too early to say, the models could

change quite a bit. Looking at the 500mb height change forecast has

280m falls with the upper trough reaching Vancouver Island Saturday

morning--but height rises behind the system over Western Canada are

not strong--and the absence of strong height rises over the Yukon

and B.C. on Sunday mean that this is not the canonical perfect storm

like a November `85 type of event: The strong shortwave trough pulls

in the cold air aloft behind it--but it isn`t forced down by a

strengthening arctic high.

 

Looking at sea level pressure falls under the second round of more

modest height falls: On the 12z GFS there is a small area of

-2mb/3hr pressure falls along the modified arctic front which tracks

from the north Washington coast 12z Sunday and then across the south

part of the Olympic Peninsula around 15z--after that it fades over

southwest Washington around 18z. That is a pretty modest system--but

it is exactly what you want to watch--development on the modified

arctic front itself. Later shifts can start to tease out the chance

for some snow behind the main front Saturday night versus the chance

of lowland snow with the modified arctic front. Fwiw, it is

traditional to say `modified arctic front` rather than `cold winter

continental Canadian air`, but obviously this isn`t true arctic air

and lows that will probably dip into the teens by Monday night

outside of the city is hardly arctic...but it is awfully cold

compared to what we have seen so far this winter.

 

On Monday, gradients relax awfully fast with the Fraser outflow

piddling out quickly--but 850mb temps will remain cold around -13C

Sunday night through Monday night: The coldest min temps of the

winter sure seem like a good bet. Sunday night wont be the coldest

night--except for wind chill, with breezy cold winds, but after

the gradients relax Monday then Monday night should be the coldest

night with light winds under cold dry air aloft. If there is any

snow on the ground in the lowlands that could help get outlying

areas drop below the current forecasts Monday night. Dry northerly

flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday.

Jim did NOT write this.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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ECMWF 00z Max Temp on Sunday:

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/2ceja69.png

Those highs occur Sunday morning. The Euro still has temperatures mainly in the mid 30's by the afternoon and the airmass is plenty cold enough for precip to fall as snow.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Those highs occur Sunday morning. The Euro still has temperatures mainly in the mid 30's by the afternoon and the airmass is plenty cold enough for precip to fall as snow.

Temps at 1pm still in the lower 40s in the Seattle metro area. Seems marginal at best with 925mb temps ranging from -2C to -3C.

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What link are you using to view the Euro?

 

It is out on tidbits

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Temps at 1pm still in the lower 40s in the Seattle metro area. Seems marginal at best with 925mb temps ranging from -2C to -3C.

 

Those 925mb temps are certainly cold enough to get the job done. Temps will quickly wet bulb down to freezing in the Sound with any precip at that point. Precip type won't be an issue, precip availability may be.

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Those 925mb temps are certainly cold enough to get the job done. Temps will quickly wet bulb down to freezing in the Sound with any precip at that point. Precip type won't be an issue, precip availability may be.

Definitely.

 

I suppose it's possible temperatures will bump up again to near 40 Sunday afternoon if the front moves South quicker than modeled and the sun comes out early in the day, but any precipitation with 925mb temps below -2 will be sticking snow.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Those 925mb temps are certainly cold enough to get the job done. Temps will quickly wet bulb down to freezing in the Sound with any precip at that point. Precip type won't be an issue, precip availability may be.

I wouldn't say that considering there's a lot of room between the surface (sea level) and 925mb (2300 ft) to result in complete melting. Having a Skew-T from the ECMWF would be helpful. 

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I wouldn't say that considering there's a lot of room between the surface (sea level) and 925mb (2300 ft) to result in complete melting. Having a Skew-T from the ECMWF would be helpful. 

 

A -2c or -3c airmass at 925mb is sufficiently cold enough for sticking snow at sea level here in nearly all cases, and in this case in particular there's no question that the air with the front will provide the necessary support. The wet bulb temperatures will be below freezing at the surface ahead of the front.

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A -2c or -3c airmass at 925mb is sufficiently cold enough for sticking snow at sea level here in nearly all cases, and in this case in particular there's no question that the air with the front will provide the necessary support. The wet bulb temperatures will be below freezing at the surface ahead of the front.

I disagree. This seems marginal at sea level if the temperatures below 925mb are not freezing in the majority of the layer, especially when you consider the potential for mixing with the 18-24mph winds off the water the ECMWF is showing. I would go with mixed precip ending as snow based on the ECMWF temps and precip. Snow will be hard to stick if ground temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the absence of heavy precipitation. 

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I was looking at November 2014 which was a very poor mans version of the pattern coming up and Seattle had afternoon temps in the low 30s on the day of the Arctic outbreak.  Low temps later went on to go well below 20 in many places.  I this case the 850s will be much colder, the surface gradients considerably stronger, and the cold air mass much deeper.  The cold is being underestimated with this as it often is with Fraser River events.  I still say the Central Puget Sound will get snow as is normal with Fraser outflow events.  I've seen the models show nothing (and be wrong) way too many times to believe it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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