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Sudden Stratospheric Warming Coming

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#1
Black Hole

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:17 AM

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It appears a SSW event will begin in about 10 days. This will have significant effects on the weather over the Northern Hemisphere the next 2 months or so. 

These occur on average every 2 years or so. I believe they are more common during easterly QBO events (I think that is what we have). 

If anybody has any comments, please share them. 


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#2
Guest_happ_*

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:05 AM

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It is grief for the Southwest. At least the reservoirs are in good shape from AR events last winter. Could be a good monsoon though.



#3
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 February 2018 - 12:11 PM

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It appears a SSW event will begin in about 10 days. This will have significant effects on the weather over the Northern Hemisphere the next 2 months or so. 

These occur on average every 2 years or so. I believe they are more common during easterly QBO events (I think that is what we have). 

If anybody has any comments, please share them. 

 

Do you think this could bring about a pattern change that would bring more storminess to CA and the SW in general? We really need something to shake up this awful stagnant pattern that we have been stuck in all season.

 

You are correct in that we are having an easterly (-QBO) event right now.



#4
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 02:16 PM

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Considering the 12z EPS might finally be jumping on board, I’m starting to get excited.

Interesting possibilities, as far as long term/seasonal consequences are concerned. If this is a legitimate SSW that, for all intents and purposes, functions as a “final warming” event (transition to summer anticyclone), then it will have huge implications..probably very good ones for west coasters, too.
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#5
Black Hole

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:03 PM

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Do you think this could bring about a pattern change that would bring more storminess to CA and the SW in general? We really need something to shake up this awful stagnant pattern that we have been stuck in all season.

 

You are correct in that we are having an easterly (-QBO) event right now.

Anything over what we have now. I will take our chances.


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#6
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:26 PM

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This is a drastically oversimplified explanation, but for our purposes, I think it’s sufficient.

Essentially, a SSW event is nothing more than a hefty load of sinking air in the high latitudes. As the air sinks and compresses, it warms rapidly.

However, when you have a large swath of sinking air somewhere, you must also have a large swath of rising air somewhere else. In this case, this upward motion is found in the tropics. So it’s no surprise that powerful bursts of tropical convection/MJO waves are associated with SSW events.

The upward motion in the tropics leads to the inverse of what happens at the pole..as the air rises/expands, it cools substantially, releasing latent heat quickly in the convective process, such that the tropical upper troposphere and stratosphere is dehydrated following the raising/cooling of the tropopause (following the SSW).

So, in essence, you have an externally forced reduction of tropical static stability, and this is often the conduit to large scale regime change, because this entire process will destabilize the “balanced” equator/pole exchanges that have been present for the last five years.
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#7
iFred

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:28 PM

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How about a map of the expected SSW outcome?
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#8
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 04:26 PM

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How about a map of the expected SSW outcome?


Can you elaborate? Are you talking about a map of the modeled event in the stratosphere?
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#9
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:37 PM

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Stupendous, precipitous, explosive, sensational, scorching, unanticipated, disruptive, dynamic, salacious! 


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#10
Deweydog

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:42 PM

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Stupendous, precipitous, explosive, sensational, scorching, unanticipated, disruptive, dynamic, salacious!


You forgot ugly, lazy and disrespectful.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#11
Black Hole

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:49 PM

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Can you elaborate? Are you talking about a map of the modeled event in the stratosphere?

I will second Phil on this one. Do you mean an anomaly map in the stratosphere or a map to show its effects on the surface?

I can post one for the anomalies later but I think we need to get a bit closer before we worry about what it will do at the surface because I don't think the models know yet. 


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#12
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:56 PM

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Considering the 12z EPS might finally be jumping on board, I’m starting to get excited.

Interesting possibilities, as far as long term/seasonal consequences are concerned. If this is a legitimate SSW that, for all intents and purposes, functions as a “final warming” event (transition to summer anticyclone), then it will have huge implications..probably very good ones for west coasters, too.

 

When you say transition to summer anticyclone, you don't mean that we all are going to shift into a summer pattern much earlier than normal this year, do you? I won't be ready for constant summer heat in April, especially given how absolutely bone dry it has been this fall and winter in Socal!



#13
Front Ranger

Posted 01 February 2018 - 07:57 PM

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You forgot ugly, lazy and disrespectful.

 

You're not being very nice to SSWs.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#14
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:25 PM

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When you say transition to summer anticyclone, you don't mean that we all are going to shift into a summer pattern much earlier than normal this year, do you? I won't be ready for constant summer heat in April, especially given how absolutely bone dry it has been this fall and winter in Socal!


I meant the summer circulation in the stratosphere. The stratospheric polar vortex only exists during the cold season. During the warm season, the vortex breaks up and is replaced by a high pressure system. So if we’re running a warm season stratosphere under a cold season troposphere/oceans..woah.

This “break up” of the polar vortex occurs during the spring every year, usually in April/May. Sometimes it’s a slow process, but other times, a SSW type event occurs, which takes out the PV abruptly, and the summer anticyclone takes over from there. Hence, those are referred to as “final warming” events, since they mark the “final” demise of the PV.

If this ends up being the final warming event, it would be the earliest on record by ~ one month. The final warming event back in mid/late March of 2016 currently holds that record, however that event, the surrounding system state, and the seasonal players, were vastly different in March 2016 compared to where they are now.

This event is more of a “classic” cold season, wave-2 style SSW event, as opposed to a super niño/+QBO driven fuckfest.
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#15
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:14 PM

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Does the 00Z GFS still show the SSW?



#16
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:33 PM

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Does the 00Z GFS still show the SSW?


Yes. Let’s hope to god it stays that way.

You have access to tropical tidbits, correct?
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#17
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:40 PM

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Yes. Let’s hope to god it stays that way.

You have access to tropical tidbits, correct?

 

Can't find that 10mb map.  



#18
Phil

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:18 PM

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Can't find that 10mb map.


GFS -> upper dynamics -> first selection
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#19
Eujunga

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:51 PM

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Can't find that 10mb map.  

 

 

GFS -> upper dynamics -> first selection

 

You have to click on Regions > N. Hemisphere first before the 10mb Temp and Height option will be available.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#20
TT-SEA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:57 PM

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You have to click on Regions > N. Hemisphere first before the 10mb Temp and Height option will be available.

 

Yeah... found it now.   Thanks.



#21
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:30 PM

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I meant the summer circulation in the stratosphere. The stratospheric polar vortex only exists during the cold season. During the warm season, the vortex breaks up and is replaced by a high pressure system. So if we’re running a warm season stratosphere under a cold season troposphere/oceans..woah.

This “break up” of the polar vortex occurs during the spring every year, usually in April/May. Sometimes it’s a slow process, but other times, a SSW type event occurs, which takes out the PV abruptly, and the summer anticyclone takes over from there. Hence, those are referred to as “final warming” events, since they mark the “final” demise of the PV.

If this ends up being the final warming event, it would be the earliest on record by ~ one month. The final warming event back in mid/late March of 2016 currently holds that record, however that event, the surrounding system state, and the seasonal players, were vastly different in March 2016 compared to where they are now.

This event is more of a “classic” cold season, wave-2 style SSW event, as opposed to a super niño/+QBO driven fuckfest.

 

Thanks for clarifying! Let's hope this event does occur and causes a major shake up in the current regime!



#22
Eujunga

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:57 PM

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This event is more of a “classic” cold season, wave-2 style SSW event, as opposed to a super niño/+QBO driven fuckfest.

 

I believe it's been suggested before that you ease up on the technical jargon for those of us not as well-versed in meteorological arcana.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#23
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 12:08 AM

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The 00z ECMWF is more impressive with the SSW.

Come on, if we can get this to within 4-5 days, it’s almost a lock. So we really just need to hold these model trends for another 4 days.
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#24
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:12 AM

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Any other years have a very early SSW event during a easterly QBO, Nina winter?



#25
Front Ranger

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:32 AM

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Shame we weren't seeing this show up a month ago. Better late than never?


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#26
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:32 AM

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Any other years have a very early SSW event during a easterly QBO, Nina winter?


You mean a very late SSW?
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#27
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:05 AM

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Very few matches. I found two years that had somewhat similar classical boundary conditions with late winter SSW events, but one (1983/84) was a volcanic year, and the other (2000/01) was a solar maximum year.

Of these, 2000/01 is easily a better match, but it relying on it structurally is a mistake IMO..

ETZt3u7.jpg

nVFYA5N.jpg
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#28
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:19 AM

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Shame we weren't seeing this show up a month ago. Better late than never?


Tell me about it. The mid-February timing definitely opens up some interesting possibilities, though. Because one thing is for certain..the models are dead sitting ducks right now, oblivious to anything and everything that will happen once the tropospheric vortex begins to slow down after the SSW aloft. The tropospheric vortex will start losing juice around Feb 15th.

Two possibilities for the post-SSW months, IMO.

1) If the upper level vortex recovers later, climo suggests there’s a chance it will sustain exceptionally late into the Spring, which will make for a wild ride in May/June.

2) Or, if it fails to recover and we maintain the full wind reversal/anticyclone, then the second half of February and most of March will feature a warm season stratosphere present w/ a super -NAM, in tandem with cold season style tropospheric wavetrain/thermals still present throughout the NH. Oh joy. :lol:
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#29
Front Ranger

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:53 AM

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Tell me about it. The mid-February timing definitely opens up some interesting possibilities, though. Because one thing is for certain..the models are dead sitting ducks right now, oblivious to anything and everything that will happen once the tropospheric vortex begins to slow down after the SSW aloft. The tropospheric vortex will start losing juice around Feb 15th.

Two possibilities for the post-SSW months, IMO.

1) If the upper level vortex recovers later, climo suggests there’s a chance it will sustain exceptionally late into the Spring, which will make for a wild ride in May/June.

2) Or, if it fails to recover and we maintain the full wind reversal/anticyclone, then the second half of February and most of March will feature a warm season stratosphere present w/ a super -NAM, in tandem with cold season style tropospheric wavetrain/thermals still present throughout the NH. Oh joy. :lol:

 

Interesting stuff.

 

I think we're in for a very active severe weather spring. Where exactly it will be focused is a bigger question...


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#30
Guest_happ_*

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:50 AM

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Tell me about it. The mid-February timing definitely opens up some interesting possibilities, though. Because one thing is for certain..the models are dead sitting ducks right now, oblivious to anything and everything that will happen once the tropospheric vortex begins to slow down after the SSW aloft. The tropospheric vortex will start losing juice around Feb 15th.

Two possibilities for the post-SSW months, IMO.

1) If the upper level vortex recovers later, climo suggests there’s a chance it will sustain exceptionally late into the Spring, which will make for a wild ride in May/June.

2) Or, if it fails to recover and we maintain the full wind reversal/anticyclone, then the second half of February and most of March will feature a warm season stratosphere present w/ a super -NAM, in tandem with cold season style tropospheric wavetrain/thermals still present throughout the NH. Oh joy. :lol:

 

This is very exciting for the first time this winter  B)  

 

Phil, you are quoted on WeatherWest  :)



#31
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:56 AM

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This is very exciting for the first time this winter B)

Phil, you are quoted on WeatherWest :)


Cool. What is Weather West?
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#32
Guest_happ_*

Posted 02 February 2018 - 01:02 PM

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Cool. What is Weather West?

http://weatherwest.com/


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#33
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:15 PM

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http://weatherwest.com/


Cool site. Thanks man, I appreciate it.
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#34
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 02 February 2018 - 03:15 PM

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Cool site. Thanks man, I appreciate it.

 

Weather West is dedicated to discussions on California weather and climate. It is the most comprehensive blog that I am aware of on the Internet that covers the entire state of CA weather-wise.



#35
Guest_happ_*

Posted 02 February 2018 - 04:20 PM

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Cool site. Thanks man, I appreciate it.

 

Ever thought of creating your own blog, Phil?



#36
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:00 PM

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Ever thought of creating your own blog, Phil?


I’m not sure I could handle any additions to my plate of responsibilities, haha.
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#37
Black Hole

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:46 PM

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A number of interesting gems on this twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/...401017594056705

 

Looks like a full split verses just displacement. The deeper it descends the greater the impact.

Maybe Phil can elaborate on this from the thread too:

"...the easterly tropospheric momentum from damaged PV will actually transport -AAM equatorward. If this couples with tropical -AAM propagation, you can see a serious NAM tank. 2009 split received +AAM from Tropics when SSW happened FWIW."

 


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#38
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:51 PM

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A number of interesting gems on this twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/...401017594056705

Looks like a full split verses just displacement. The deeper it descends the greater the impact.

Maybe Phil can elaborate on this from the thread too:

"...the easterly tropospheric momentum from damaged PV will actually transport -AAM equatorward. If this couples with tropical -AAM propagation, you can see a serious NAM tank. 2009 split received +AAM from Tropics when SSW happened FWIW."


I assume he’a referring to the unraveling TPV transporting easterly momentum equatorward to “meet” the antecedent -QBO driven poleward deposition of easterly momentum aloft. This could promote a very strong -AO if there is strat/tropo coupling thru the domain where -AAM converges.

In 2009 we had Niña/+QBO depositing westerly momentum poleward, rather than easterly momentum, so it’s probably not the best SSW analog. These things are fickle, though, so who knows.
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#39
Phil

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:09 PM

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And yeah, you guys think I’m confusing? Lol, wxnerd speak can get much wxnerdier.

My rants barely scratch the surface.
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#40
Sometimesdylan

Posted 03 February 2018 - 04:37 AM

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And yeah, you guys think I’m confusing? Lol, wxnerd speak can get much wxnerdier.

My rants barely scratch the surface.

I basically pretend everything you say means that Southeast Alaska is gonna get a lot of snow and then we're gonna go into an ice age.

 

Bring it on


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"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku


#41
Andie

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:56 AM

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Phil,

Could you descend into the realms of the Great Unwashed and opine on the affects on Texas and Oklahoma ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#42
Eujunga

Posted 03 February 2018 - 08:01 AM

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Phil,

Could you descend into the realms of the Great Unwashed and opine on the affects on Texas and Oklahoma ?

 

It's gonna be a "fuckfest."


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#43
Andie

Posted 03 February 2018 - 08:05 AM

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I'll brace myself !

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#44
WeatherArchive

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:00 PM

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I agree that you should do a blog Phil as you can kick out the weirdos who post crap or whatever and those who respect you will actually learn from you.  You are very good with east coast weather you just suck at summarizing things. :)  


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#45
Black Hole

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:41 PM

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A great write up found here: https://www.aer.com/...ic-oscillation/
Some tidbits:

" It would seem to me with the sister vortex predicted to be displaced over Northwestern Canada, should favor cold temperatures across western North America with mild temperatures upstream over eastern North America. However the Global forecast System (GFS) during and immediately after the PV Disruption is predicting above normal temperatures for western North America and normal to below normal temperatures in the Eastern US. The European Centre for Medium Range Forecast (ECMWF) has been predicting warmer temperatures for the Eastern US. I receive little ECMWF data but from what I can tell the ECMWF has actually shifted colder close to the GFS forecast. Models are challenged by stratosphere-troposphere coupling and I expect volatility in the model forecasts and they could migrate to a cold western North America/warm eastern North America pattern in future model runs.

 

For those who read the blog what I write next might shock you so please take a seat. I see little reason to attribute a general warm west/cold east pattern to the behavior of the stratospheric PV. Instead the cycling of the Madden Julian Oscillation through phases 7 and 8 are consistent with a warm west/cold east pattern and maybe it is the MJO that is most contributing to the GFS predicted pattern for next week. I have also been discussing in the blog that we are approaching the period of the winter when persistence is strongest. And if there is one persistent pattern this winter it has been the warm and dry conditions in the Western US and maybe regardless of remote forcings the persistence is too great to overcome, helped in part by the warm sea surface temperatures off the US West Coast. Again regardless, I expect model forecasts be volatile in the coming weeks.

 

...

 

As I discussed in the impacts section,  I expect the tropospheric response from the significant PV disruption to be a major influence on the tropospheric NH circulation from four to possibly six weeks, which takes us through the end if winter.  The initial impact that I expect is to persist the cold temperatures across northern Eurasia including Europe with possible mild temperatures in eastern North America and colder temperatures in western North America.  Though perhaps MJO forcing and persistence may offset these induced pattern from the stratospheric PV."

 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#46
Front Ranger

Posted 06 February 2018 - 08:25 AM

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Hope!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#47
Guest_happ_*

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:26 AM

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Thanks Black Hole. This quote isn't encouraging, however.

 

 "And if there is one persistent pattern this winter it has been the warm and dry conditions in the Western US and maybe regardless of remote forcings the persistence is too great to overcome, helped in part by the warm sea surface temperatures off the US West Coast. Again regardless, I expect model forecasts be volatile in the coming weeks."



#48
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:58 AM

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The warm and dry conditions in the western U.S. this year has almost been a permanent feature this season it seems.



#49
Phil

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:46 PM

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Thanks Black Hole. This quote isn't encouraging, however.

"And if there is one persistent pattern this winter it has been the warm and dry conditions in the Western US and maybe regardless of remote forcings the persistence is too great to overcome, helped in part by the warm sea surface temperatures off the US West Coast. Again regardless, I expect model forecasts be volatile in the coming weeks."


Well, +NAO/warm EPAC/expanded Hadley Cell can almost be thought of as a single system, IMO.

Theoretically, this SSW could mark the beginnings of a legitimate shake-up.
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#50
Guest_happ_*

Posted 06 February 2018 - 02:31 PM

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Well, +NAO/warm EPAC/expanded Hadley Cell can almost be thought of as a single system, IMO.

Theoretically, this SSW could mark the beginnings of a legitimate shake-up.

 

So if El Nino # 2 is in the future than SoCal could get rain this summer like 2015!