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Sudden Stratospheric Warming Coming


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It appears a SSW event will begin in about 10 days. This will have significant effects on the weather over the Northern Hemisphere the next 2 months or so. 

These occur on average every 2 years or so. I believe they are more common during easterly QBO events (I think that is what we have). 

If anybody has any comments, please share them. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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It appears a SSW event will begin in about 10 days. This will have significant effects on the weather over the Northern Hemisphere the next 2 months or so. 

 

These occur on average every 2 years or so. I believe they are more common during easterly QBO events (I think that is what we have). 

 

If anybody has any comments, please share them. 

 

Do you think this could bring about a pattern change that would bring more storminess to CA and the SW in general? We really need something to shake up this awful stagnant pattern that we have been stuck in all season.

 

You are correct in that we are having an easterly (-QBO) event right now.

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Considering the 12z EPS might finally be jumping on board, I’m starting to get excited.

 

Interesting possibilities, as far as long term/seasonal consequences are concerned. If this is a legitimate SSW that, for all intents and purposes, functions as a “final warming” event (transition to summer anticyclone), then it will have huge implications..probably very good ones for west coasters, too.

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Do you think this could bring about a pattern change that would bring more storminess to CA and the SW in general? We really need something to shake up this awful stagnant pattern that we have been stuck in all season.

 

You are correct in that we are having an easterly (-QBO) event right now.

Anything over what we have now. I will take our chances.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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This is a drastically oversimplified explanation, but for our purposes, I think it’s sufficient.

 

Essentially, a SSW event is nothing more than a hefty load of sinking air in the high latitudes. As the air sinks and compresses, it warms rapidly.

 

However, when you have a large swath of sinking air somewhere, you must also have a large swath of rising air somewhere else. In this case, this upward motion is found in the tropics. So it’s no surprise that powerful bursts of tropical convection/MJO waves are associated with SSW events.

 

The upward motion in the tropics leads to the inverse of what happens at the pole..as the air rises/expands, it cools substantially, releasing latent heat quickly in the convective process, such that the tropical upper troposphere and stratosphere is dehydrated following the raising/cooling of the tropopause (following the SSW).

 

So, in essence, you have an externally forced reduction of tropical static stability, and this is often the conduit to large scale regime change, because this entire process will destabilize the “balanced” equator/pole exchanges that have been present for the last five years.

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How about a map of the expected SSW outcome?

Can you elaborate? Are you talking about a map of the modeled event in the stratosphere?

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Can you elaborate? Are you talking about a map of the modeled event in the stratosphere?

I will second Phil on this one. Do you mean an anomaly map in the stratosphere or a map to show its effects on the surface?

 

I can post one for the anomalies later but I think we need to get a bit closer before we worry about what it will do at the surface because I don't think the models know yet. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Considering the 12z EPS might finally be jumping on board, I’m starting to get excited.

 

Interesting possibilities, as far as long term/seasonal consequences are concerned. If this is a legitimate SSW that, for all intents and purposes, functions as a “final warming” event (transition to summer anticyclone), then it will have huge implications..probably very good ones for west coasters, too.

 

When you say transition to summer anticyclone, you don't mean that we all are going to shift into a summer pattern much earlier than normal this year, do you? I won't be ready for constant summer heat in April, especially given how absolutely bone dry it has been this fall and winter in Socal!

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When you say transition to summer anticyclone, you don't mean that we all are going to shift into a summer pattern much earlier than normal this year, do you? I won't be ready for constant summer heat in April, especially given how absolutely bone dry it has been this fall and winter in Socal!

I meant the summer circulation in the stratosphere. The stratospheric polar vortex only exists during the cold season. During the warm season, the vortex breaks up and is replaced by a high pressure system. So if we’re running a warm season stratosphere under a cold season troposphere/oceans..woah.

 

This “break up” of the polar vortex occurs during the spring every year, usually in April/May. Sometimes it’s a slow process, but other times, a SSW type event occurs, which takes out the PV abruptly, and the summer anticyclone takes over from there. Hence, those are referred to as “final warming” events, since they mark the “final” demise of the PV.

 

If this ends up being the final warming event, it would be the earliest on record by ~ one month. The final warming event back in mid/late March of 2016 currently holds that record, however that event, the surrounding system state, and the seasonal players, were vastly different in March 2016 compared to where they are now.

 

This event is more of a “classic” cold season, wave-2 style SSW event, as opposed to a super niño/+QBO driven fuckfest.

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Does the 00Z GFS still show the SSW?

Yes. Let’s hope to god it stays that way.

 

You have access to tropical tidbits, correct?

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I meant the summer circulation in the stratosphere. The stratospheric polar vortex only exists during the cold season. During the warm season, the vortex breaks up and is replaced by a high pressure system. So if we’re running a warm season stratosphere under a cold season troposphere/oceans..woah.

 

This “break up” of the polar vortex occurs during the spring every year, usually in April/May. Sometimes it’s a slow process, but other times, a SSW type event occurs, which takes out the PV abruptly, and the summer anticyclone takes over from there. Hence, those are referred to as “final warming” events, since they mark the “final” demise of the PV.

 

If this ends up being the final warming event, it would be the earliest on record by ~ one month. The final warming event back in mid/late March of 2016 currently holds that record, however that event, the surrounding system state, and the seasonal players, were vastly different in March 2016 compared to where they are now.

 

This event is more of a “classic” cold season, wave-2 style SSW event, as opposed to a super niño/+QBO driven fuckfest.

 

Thanks for clarifying! Let's hope this event does occur and causes a major shake up in the current regime!

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The 00z ECMWF is more impressive with the SSW.

 

Come on, if we can get this to within 4-5 days, it’s almost a lock. So we really just need to hold these model trends for another 4 days.

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Any other years have a very early SSW event during a easterly QBO, Nina winter?

You mean a very late SSW?

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Very few matches. I found two years that had somewhat similar classical boundary conditions with late winter SSW events, but one (1983/84) was a volcanic year, and the other (2000/01) was a solar maximum year.

 

Of these, 2000/01 is easily a better match, but it relying on it structurally is a mistake IMO..

 

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Shame we weren't seeing this show up a month ago. Better late than never?

Tell me about it. The mid-February timing definitely opens up some interesting possibilities, though. Because one thing is for certain..the models are dead sitting ducks right now, oblivious to anything and everything that will happen once the tropospheric vortex begins to slow down after the SSW aloft. The tropospheric vortex will start losing juice around Feb 15th.

 

Two possibilities for the post-SSW months, IMO.

 

1) If the upper level vortex recovers later, climo suggests there’s a chance it will sustain exceptionally late into the Spring, which will make for a wild ride in May/June.

 

2) Or, if it fails to recover and we maintain the full wind reversal/anticyclone, then the second half of February and most of March will feature a warm season stratosphere present w/ a super -NAM, in tandem with cold season style tropospheric wavetrain/thermals still present throughout the NH. Oh joy. :lol:

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Tell me about it. The mid-February timing definitely opens up some interesting possibilities, though. Because one thing is for certain..the models are dead sitting ducks right now, oblivious to anything and everything that will happen once the tropospheric vortex begins to slow down after the SSW aloft. The tropospheric vortex will start losing juice around Feb 15th.

 

Two possibilities for the post-SSW months, IMO.

 

1) If the upper level vortex recovers later, climo suggests there’s a chance it will sustain exceptionally late into the Spring, which will make for a wild ride in May/June.

 

2) Or, if it fails to recover and we maintain the full wind reversal/anticyclone, then the second half of February and most of March will feature a warm season stratosphere present w/ a super -NAM, in tandem with cold season style tropospheric wavetrain/thermals still present throughout the NH. Oh joy. :lol:

 

Interesting stuff.

 

I think we're in for a very active severe weather spring. Where exactly it will be focused is a bigger question...

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Tell me about it. The mid-February timing definitely opens up some interesting possibilities, though. Because one thing is for certain..the models are dead sitting ducks right now, oblivious to anything and everything that will happen once the tropospheric vortex begins to slow down after the SSW aloft. The tropospheric vortex will start losing juice around Feb 15th.

 

Two possibilities for the post-SSW months, IMO.

 

1) If the upper level vortex recovers later, climo suggests there’s a chance it will sustain exceptionally late into the Spring, which will make for a wild ride in May/June.

 

2) Or, if it fails to recover and we maintain the full wind reversal/anticyclone, then the second half of February and most of March will feature a warm season stratosphere present w/ a super -NAM, in tandem with cold season style tropospheric wavetrain/thermals still present throughout the NH. Oh joy. :lol:

 

This is very exciting for the first time this winter  B)  

 

Phil, you are quoted on WeatherWest  :)

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This is very exciting for the first time this winter B)

 

Phil, you are quoted on WeatherWest :)

Cool. What is Weather West?

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Ever thought of creating your own blog, Phil?

I’m not sure I could handle any additions to my plate of responsibilities, haha.

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A number of interesting gems on this twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/959401017594056705

 

Looks like a full split verses just displacement. The deeper it descends the greater the impact.

Maybe Phil can elaborate on this from the thread too:

"...the easterly tropospheric momentum from damaged PV will actually transport -AAM equatorward. If this couples with tropical -AAM propagation, you can see a serious NAM tank. 2009 split received +AAM from Tropics when SSW happened FWIW."

 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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A number of interesting gems on this twitter thread:

 

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/959401017594056705

 

Looks like a full split verses just displacement. The deeper it descends the greater the impact.

 

Maybe Phil can elaborate on this from the thread too:

 

"...the easterly tropospheric momentum from damaged PV will actually transport -AAM equatorward. If this couples with tropical -AAM propagation, you can see a serious NAM tank. 2009 split received +AAM from Tropics when SSW happened FWIW."

 

 

I assume he’a referring to the unraveling TPV transporting easterly momentum equatorward to “meet” the antecedent -QBO driven poleward deposition of easterly momentum aloft. This could promote a very strong -AO if there is strat/tropo coupling thru the domain where -AAM converges.

 

In 2009 we had Niña/+QBO depositing westerly momentum poleward, rather than easterly momentum, so it’s probably not the best SSW analog. These things are fickle, though, so who knows.

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And yeah, you guys think I’m confusing? Lol, wxnerd speak can get much wxnerdier.

 

My rants barely scratch the surface.

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And yeah, you guys think I’m confusing? Lol, wxnerd speak can get much wxnerdier.

 

My rants barely scratch the surface.

I basically pretend everything you say means that Southeast Alaska is gonna get a lot of snow and then we're gonna go into an ice age.

 

Bring it on

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"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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Phil,

 

Could you descend into the realms of the Great Unwashed and opine on the affects on Texas and Oklahoma ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'll brace myself !

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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